元旦、春节双节叠加，正值人员流动频繁、资金交易活跃、非法金融活动易发高发期。为切实守护群 众"钱袋子"，筑牢区域金融安全防线，昆山农商银行滨海支行紧扣"守住钱袋子.护好幸福家"主题，立 足异地服务定位，统筹厅堂阵地与户外延伸，集中开展多形式、全覆盖的防范非法金融活动宣传教育， 以金融担当护航群众安心过年。 活动期间，支行以网点为主阵地、社区为延伸点、返乡潮为关键期，构建"厅堂常态化、户外集中化、 重点精准化"宣传格局。厅堂内充分利用LED屏、电视滚动播放防非反诈标语与警示短片，在咨询台、 等候区摆放宣传折页，柜员与大堂经理主动向前来办理业务的客户讲解非法集资、电信诈骗、非法放 贷、出租出借银行卡等风险特征与识别技巧，结合典型案例以案说法，提醒群众警惕"高收益保本""养 老投资""虚拟货币"等陷阱。 针对异地务工人员集中返乡、老年群体风险防范薄弱等特点，支行组建宣传小队走进社区、商圈、集市 与居民集中区，通过悬挂横幅、设立咨询台、发放资料、现场答疑等方式，面对面普及金融安全知识。 工作人员用通俗易懂的语言，重点讲解非法金融活动的危害与防范要点，引导群众树立理性投资观念， 做到不轻信、不透露、不转账，遇到可疑情况 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors and companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in the market. [2][5] Economic News - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 320.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan from the market. [3] - The overnight SHIBOR rate reported at 1.3680%, down by 1 basis point, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate decreased by 4 basis points to 1.4570%. [3] - The Supreme People's Court reported over 27,000 cases related to cross-border fraud, with significant sentences handed down to key criminal groups. [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed the feasibility of new frequency bands for IMT and future 6G technology at a recent international meeting. [3] - Heilongjiang Province's government report emphasized the reform of state-owned enterprises and support for private sector development. [3] - The establishment of a national quality inspection center for rare earth permanent magnet motors in Liaoning Province aims to enhance quality assurance in high-end manufacturing. [4] Company News - Wens Foodstuff Group announced a share buyback plan of 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan at a maximum price of 24.00 yuan per share. [5] - Jiangxi Tungsten Holdings is planning to issue A-shares to specific investors to enhance its core competitiveness and fund acquisitions totaling up to 1.882 billion yuan. [5] - Huylon New Materials is undergoing a significant change that may affect its control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock. [5] - Fangzheng Valve reported a revenue of 733 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 2.98%, with net profit down by 6.34%. [5] - Nanya New Materials achieved a revenue of 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.52%, with net profit rising by 378.65% due to market demand recovery. [5] Transportation Industry Insights - In January 2026, domestic airline capacity decreased by approximately 4.3% year-on-year, but increased by 5.8% compared to December 2025, as airlines prepared for the Spring Festival. [7] - The overall passenger load factor for airlines improved by about 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to December. [7] - During the Spring Festival holiday, national civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, with a flight completion rate of 95.8%, indicating growth compared to the previous year. [8] - International flight capacity increased by 2.6% year-on-year in January, with a slight improvement in load factors, although some airlines faced challenges due to changes in the Japanese route. [9] - Baiyun Airport reported a significant increase in passenger throughput, while Shanghai Airport experienced a decline, attributed to shifts in travel demand. [10] - The report suggests focusing on large airlines for their earnings elasticity, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. [11]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，春运过半，截至2月22日(春运前21天)全社会人员流动量农历 同比增长6.0%，其中公路+6.0%，铁路+5.3%，航空+6.0%。2026年春运前21天，估算国内航司客座率 同比上升约1-2pct；估算国内裸票价(不含燃油附加费)同比上升约3-4%；考虑2026年2月航油价格同比下 降13%，估算国内扣油票价(含油票价扣除人均燃油成本)同比上升，意味着航司毛利率应同比提升。假 期二次出行旺盛，航司客座率创新高，票价同比升幅明显扩大，预计节后票价同比上升趋势有望继续向 好。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2026年春运跟踪：春节假期客流增幅提升，航空客流增速继续居前 节后(2/24-3/13)：预计节后拼假效应亦将弱于往年，返程客流将较2025年同期相对集中。 航空客流：春运加班相对有限，其中春节假期客流增速较节前提升 2026年春运前21天，民航日均客运量约239万人，农历同比增长6.0%，增速符合局方预期。2026年春运 民航加班较为有限，且局方严控干线市场航司增加与客运增班。根据航班管家统计，春运前21天全国日 均实际客运执飞航班同比增长近5%，其中国内与国际航线增幅较 ...

春节假期出行旺盛，航空票价升幅扩大 [Table_Industry] 航空 ——2026 年"春运"系列报告之（四） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | 本报告导读： 2026 年春运需求旺盛，航空客流增幅领跑，且客座率票价同比上升。其中，春节假 期票价升幅扩大，节后趋势或继续向好。叠加油价降低，料春运航司盈利同比改善。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 航空《节前将现客流高峰，票价趋势有望向好》 2026.02.14 航空《春运客流逐步启动，官方预期再创新高》 2026.02.02 航空《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需求旺盛》 2026.01.23 航空《春运预售开始启动，预计需求保持旺盛》 2026.01.20 航空《预计元旦假期出游旺盛 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《为何现阶段我们仍看好航空？——航空 迎来黄金时代之周期持续性探讨》 2026/01/30 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 24 日 节中航空量价超预期，飞机供应链 挑战依旧艰巨 看好 ——航空迎来黄金时代之 26 年春运点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：油汇大幅波动、经济增速不及预期、航空安全事故风险。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - 吉祥航空's operational data for January 2026 shows a decline in passenger capacity and turnover, indicating challenges in the airline's performance despite a slight increase in seat occupancy rate [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In January 2026, the company's passenger capacity decreased by 7.84% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing declines of 3.49%, 16.09%, and 39.44% respectively [1] - Passenger turnover fell by 6.04% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes experiencing declines of 1.51%, 16.01%, and 35.70% respectively [1] - The seat occupancy rate was 84.03%, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing increases of 1.76%, 0.07%, and 4.99% respectively [1] Group 2: Aircraft Fleet - As of January 31, 2026, the company operated 93 A320 series aircraft, including 27 A321s, 22 A320neos, and 14 A321neos, along with 10 Boeing 787 series aircraft [1] - The subsidiary, 九元航空, operated 26 Boeing 737 series aircraft [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Shareholder Actions - 吉祥航空's stock price has been underperforming since its listing in May 2015, fluctuating between 9 to 15 yuan, with the latest price at 13.93 yuan, significantly lower than its initial peak [1] - The controlling shareholder, 均瑶集团, reduced its stake from 46.74% to 44.74% through block trades and further to 44.35% through competitive bidding, indicating a trend of share reduction [2] - The second-largest shareholder, 东航产投, also reduced its holdings, decreasing from 13.35% to 12.00% over several transactions [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - After a challenging period from 2020 to 2022, 吉祥航空's performance improved in 2023 and 2024, achieving record revenue and returning to profitability, although not reaching pre-2019 levels [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.48 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.089 billion yuan, down 14.28% year-on-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - 吉祥航空 is launching a series of Spring Festival themed activities to create a festive atmosphere for travelers, enhancing their overall travel experience during the holiday season [1][7]. Group 1: Thematic Activities - The company has initiated a "Leap Horse Spring Festival" theme, featuring immersive flights, festive decorations, and digital travel services to convey warm New Year wishes [1]. - The check-in areas, boarding gates, VIP lounges, and cabins have been meticulously decorated with red paper art and zodiac horse elements to create a celebratory visual experience [2][9]. Group 2: In-Flight Experience - On February 15, during the Spring Festival themed flight HO1177 from Shanghai Hongqiao to Sanya, the crew conveyed wishes for safety and family reunion through special announcements, and passengers participated in interactive activities [6]. - Unique meal services included placing a sugar-coated hawthorn on each passenger's tray, symbolizing the "taste of the New Year," along with a New Year greeting card to enhance the festive experience at high altitude [6]. Group 3: Digital Service Enhancements - As travel peaks during the Spring Festival, 吉祥航空 has upgraded its digital service capabilities by launching an "automatic ticket grabbing" feature on its official app, allowing travelers to submit ticket requests for sold-out flights [7]. - This feature monitors ticket availability until two hours before departure, automatically completing ticket purchases without service fees and offering full refunds before ticket issuance [7]. Group 4: Ground Services - The company’s VIP lounges at Hongqiao and Pudong airports have been decorated in a festive style, with staff dressed in red vests to warmly welcome travelers [9]. - A "New Year QR Code Lottery" has been introduced in the lounges, allowing travelers to scan a QR code for a chance to win various prizes, including customized mascots and flight points [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [56]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for air travel during the Spring Festival, with a projected growth in passenger numbers of around 5% due to the recovery of international routes and increased domestic travel demand driven by service consumption [8]. - The report notes that the supply of aircraft is expected to grow at a compound rate of approximately 3% over the next three years, indicating a "hardcore" constraint on supply [8]. - High load factors are anticipated to lead to significant price elasticity, particularly for major airlines such as China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, which are expected to see a release of elasticity [8]. Monthly Data Analysis Overall Performance - In January, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates varied among airlines, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth, while Hainan Airlines saw a decline of 6.6% [1]. - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth also showed a similar trend, with Spring Airlines at 6.0% and Hainan Airlines at -4.4% [1]. Domestic Routes - For domestic routes in January, Spring Airlines had the highest ASK growth at 13.3%, while Hainan Airlines had the lowest at -8.5% [2]. - RPK growth for domestic routes was led by Spring Airlines at 14.4%, with Hainan Airlines again at the bottom with -6.3% [2]. International Routes - On international routes, Southern Airlines showed the highest ASK growth at 10.5%, while Spring Airlines experienced a decline of 20.8% [2]. - RPK growth on international routes was also led by Southern Airlines at 8.0%, with Spring Airlines again showing a significant decline of 19.5% [2]. Regional Routes - Spring Airlines led regional routes with an ASK growth of 41.6%, while the lowest was seen in 吉祥 Airlines at -39.4% [2]. - RPK growth for regional routes was similarly led by Spring Airlines at 40.7% [2]. Load Factor - In January, Spring Airlines achieved the highest load factor at 92.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [3]. - The load factors for other airlines were as follows: Eastern Airlines at 85.0%, 吉祥 Airlines at 84.0%, and Southern Airlines at 83.3% [3]. Fleet Size - In January 2026, the six listed airlines collectively saw a net exit of 5 aircraft from their fleets [3].