Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 123.7 CNY/53.5 HKD [1] Core Views - Revenue in Q3 2024 reached a historical high of 15.609 billion CNY, a YoY/QoQ increase of 32.50%/14.14%, in line with previous guidance [1] - Gross margin improved significantly to 23.92%, up 10.27pct QoQ, exceeding the guidance range of 18%-20% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow 2% QoQ, with gross margin projected to be between 18%-20% [1] - Local demand continues to rise, with capacity utilization increasing to 90.4% and product mix optimization driving margin recovery [2] - The semiconductor industry cycle is recovering, with AI innovation driving demand growth, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to grow over 10% [2] - Domestic substitution is accelerating, benefiting leading domestic foundries like SMIC, which is expanding capacity in 28nm and above processes [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 15.609 billion CNY, +32.50% YoY, +14.14% QoQ [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 23.92%, -0.13pct YoY, +10.27pct QoQ [1] - 2024E revenue: 57.806 billion CNY, +27.7% YoY [6] - 2024E net profit: 3.826 billion CNY, -20.7% YoY [6] - 2025E net profit: 5.495 billion CNY, +43.6% YoY [6] - 2026E net profit: 6.796 billion CNY, +23.7% YoY [6] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing, with AI and HPC sectors driving demand [2] - Domestic substitution is accelerating, with SMIC well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its leading technology and capacity expansion [2] Valuation - 2025E PB multiple: 6.5x, target price: 123.7 CNY [2] - 2025E PB multiple for H-shares: 2.6x, target price: 53.5 HKD [2]

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 12 日 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 104.98 总股本/流通股本（亿股）79.75 / 19.88 总市值/流通市值（亿元）8,372 / 2,087 52 周内最高/最低价 104.98 / 40.33 资产负债率(%) 35.5% 市盈率 172.10 第一大股东HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED 股票投资评级 中芯国际(688981) 买入|维持 个股表现 -31% -19% -7% 5% 17% 29% 41% 53% 65% 77% 89% 2023-11 2024-01 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 中芯国际 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 收入创新高 ⚫ 事件 公司 24Q3 销售收入为 21.71 亿美元, 环比增长 14.2%；毛利率 为 20.5%，环比增长 6.6 个百分点；经营利润为 1.70 亿美元；息税折 旧及摊销前利润为 11.57 亿美元； ...

Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was $2.171 billion, a 14.2% increase quarter-over-quarter [2] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 20.5%, up 6.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] - Q3 2024 operating profit was $170 million [3] - Q3 2024 EBITDA was $1.157 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 53.3% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the company was $149 million [3] - Total assets at the end of Q1 2024 were $47.2 billion, with $12.6 billion in cash [3] - Total liabilities at the end of Q1 2024 were $15.8 billion, including $10.4 billion in interest-bearing debt [3] - Total equity at the end of Q1 2024 was $31.4 billion [3] - Interest-bearing debt to equity ratio was 33.1%, and net debt to equity ratio was -7.1% [3] - Q1 2024 net cash from operating activities was $1.236 billion [3] Capacity and Production - Q3 2024 8-inch wafer revenue share decreased to 21.5%, while 12-inch wafer revenue share increased to 78.5% [4] - Q4 2024 revenue guidance is flat to a 2% increase quarter-over-quarter, with gross margin between 18% and 20% [4] - Full-year 2024 revenue is expected to be around $8 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase [4] - Full-year 2024 gross margin is expected to be around 17% [4] - By the end of 2024, monthly capacity is expected to reach 950,000 8-inch equivalent wafers [4] - Q4 2024 will see the release of approximately 30,000 12-inch wafer monthly capacity [4] Market and Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry's last peak was in Q3 2022, and the current cycle is longer and more moderate [4] - Industry capacity utilization is expected to reach around 85% when fully recovered [5] - Power device capacity is oversupplied, but new requirements in automotive and industrial sectors create opportunities [5] - The company aims to capture about one-third of the power device market transitioning to China [5] - The company's BCD platform has strong demand, driven by AI-related applications [6][7] Strategic Focus - The company is accelerating power device capacity to support automotive, industrial, and new energy markets [4] - The company is focusing on product mix optimization to maintain average selling prices and stabilize gross margins [4] - The company is committed to deepening wafer manufacturing, accelerating platform verification, and maintaining market share [4] - The company is leveraging its comprehensive process capabilities, including backside processing and bonding, to meet new industry demands [5] - The company is expanding its product platforms and capacity to serve a diverse customer base, including CIS, display drivers, MCUs, and low-power applications [6] Competitive Landscape - New project orders have decreased, and capacity growth is expected to slow in the coming year [5] - The company's 28nm, 40nm, and 45nm nodes are operating at full capacity, with plans for medium- and long-term capacity expansion [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from AI-related demand, particularly in mature process nodes [6] - The company's BCD platform has a strong competitive advantage, with a comprehensive quality system and advanced technology [7]

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * **Industry**: Semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on chip manufacturing and related equipment. * **Company**: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) Core Views and Arguments * **US Sanctions Impact**: The US government's sanctions, including tariffs, blacklists, and national security reviews, have significantly impacted Chinese companies' R&D progress, production efficiency, and business operations. The Biden administration further intensified these measures with the Chip Act and Export Control Law, causing major shocks to Chinese chip manufacturing companies like SMIC. * **SMIC's Importance and Growth Potential**: SMIC, as the only Chinese company capable of mass-producing advanced processes, holds unique scarcity and strategic value. Despite valuation disagreements, SMIC still has significant growth potential and its stock price has upward potential. Its third-quarter performance was excellent, with revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time and both capacity utilization and gross margin improving. * **SMIC vs. TSMC Valuation**: There is a significant difference in valuation between SMIC and TSMC. If mature processes are valued at 25x P/E and advanced processes at 50x P/E, SMIC's overall valuation could exceed 1 trillion yuan in the long term. The current stock price still shows room for upside. * **SMIC's Challenges and Opportunities**: SMIC faces challenges and opportunities in the current environment. While there are disagreements about valuation, SMIC still has significant growth potential and its stock price has upward potential. Its third-quarter performance was excellent, with revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time and both capacity utilization and gross margin improving. SMIC is expected to continue expanding its production capacity, with mature process monthly capacity expected to reach 1.2 million wafers in 2026 and 1.3 million wafers in 2027. * **SMIC's Revenue and Profit Expectations**: SMIC's revenue and profit expectations are positive. In 2026, mature process monthly capacity is expected to reach 1.2 million wafers, with revenue reaching $15.6 billion and net profit reaching $2.3 billion. Advanced process revenue is expected to reach $19 billion in 2026, with net profit reaching $7.6 billion. * **Valuation Differences Between SMIC and TSMC**: The market has disagreements about SMIC's valuation, but overall, it is still lower than TSMC. If mature processes are valued at 25x P/B and advanced processes at 9x P/B, SMIC's overall valuation could exceed 1 trillion yuan in the long term. The current stock price still shows room for upside. * **Key Companies in the Lithography Equipment Field**: Companies such as Stock Holding Technology, Tengjing Technology, and Maolan Optics are worth paying attention to in the lithography equipment field. These companies focus on core components such as light sources, objectives, and workbenches, which are important links in the technology iteration of lithography machines. * **Impact of US-China Technology Conflict**: The US-China technology conflict is likely to intensify, and specific details will be determined by US legal terms. In this context, China's trend of independent and controllable technology development is promising, including SMIC and its related equipment components. This round of independent and controllable stock market sentiment, combined with the bull market, is expected to drive SMIC's market value to exceed 1 trillion yuan. * **Key Points for Investors**: Investors should pay attention to the following aspects: the trend of independent and controllable technology in the semiconductor industry, the development dynamics and financial performance of key companies such as SMIC, the development of key component suppliers in the lithography equipment field such as Stock Holding Technology, Tengjing Technology, and Maolan Optics, the valuation differences between different companies, and the risks and opportunities brought by potential policy changes.

浦银国际 公司研究 中芯国际 （981.HK/688981.CH） 美元百万 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入 7,273 6,322 8,020 9,724 10,411 营收同比增速 34% (13%) 27% 21% 7% 毛利率 38.0% 19.3% 17.1% 20.2% 28.0% 净利润 1,818 903 583 923 1,810 净利润增速 7% (50%) (35%) 58% 96% 基本每股收益（美元） 0.23 0.11 0.07 0.12 0.23 港股 EV/EBITDA 12.5 14.9 14.7 12.8 11.8 A 股 EV/EBITDA 12.5 14.9 14.7 12.8 11.8 E=浦银国际预测 资料来源：公司公告、浦银国际 浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 半导体行业 中芯国际（981.HK/688981.CH）：三季度 毛利率超市场预期 维持中芯国际的"买入"评级，上调港股目标价至 32.6 港元，潜在 升幅 15%，上调 A 股目标价至人民币 117.0 元，潜在升幅 15%。 维持中芯国际"买入"评级：中芯国际处于半导体基本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the Hong Kong and A-share listings of the company [3][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue in Q3 2024, with revenue of $2.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 20.5%, exceeding the company's previous guidance of 18%-20% [1]. - The company provided optimistic guidance for Q4 2024, expecting revenue growth of 0%-2% quarter-on-quarter, which is better than the market's expectation of a 2% decline [1]. - The company anticipates a full-year revenue of $8 billion for 2024, representing a 27% year-on-year growth [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2024 revenue reached $2.17 billion, with a gross margin of 20.5% and net profit of $223 million, surpassing market expectations [1][2]. - The company expects a full-year revenue of $8 billion for 2024, with a gross margin guidance of 17% [1]. Market Demand and Product Mix - The recovery in consumer electronics and domestic demand in China contributed to the revenue growth, with consumer electronics-related revenue accounting for 42.6% of total revenue in Q3 2024 [1]. - The revenue contribution from 12-inch wafers increased to 78.5% in Q3 2024, driven by strong domestic demand [1]. Capacity and Utilization - The company reported a utilization rate of 90.4% in Q3 2024, with a significant increase in 12-inch production capacity [1]. - Capital expenditure in Q3 2024 was $1.18 billion, a decrease of 47.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a more conservative approach moving forward [1]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2024 to $540 million, a decrease of 40.1% year-on-year, with subsequent years showing recovery [2][3]. - The projected P/B ratios for 2024-2025 are 1.4x for Hong Kong shares and 5.5x for A-shares [1][2].

Summary of SMIC Q3 2024 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Financial Highlights - **Q3 2024 Performance**: - Revenue: $2.17 billion, up 14.2% sequentially [2] - Gross Margin: 20.5%, up 6.6 percentage points sequentially [2] - Operating Profit: $170 million [2] - EBITDA: $1.157 billion, EBITDA margin at 53.3% [2] - Net Profit: $149 million attributable to the company [2] - **Balance Sheet**: - Total Assets: $47.2 billion [3] - Total Liabilities: $15.8 billion, with interest-bearing debt at $10.4 billion [3] - Total Equity: $31.4 billion, Debt to Equity Ratio: 33.1% [3] - **Cash Flow**: - Cash from Operating Activities: $1.236 billion [3] - Cash used in Investing Activities: $1.345 billion [3] - Cash used in Financing Activities: $97 million [3] Q4 2024 Guidance - Expected revenue: Flat to up 2% sequentially [8] - Gross Margin: Expected to be between 18% to 20% [8] - Anticipated release of approximately 30,000 12-inch monthly capacity [9] Market Dynamics - **Domestic vs. Overseas Demand**: - Domestic customers are restocking to gain market share, while overseas customers are adjusting shipments due to geopolitical risks [4][5]. - Revenue distribution by region: China (86%), America (11%), Eurasia (3%) [6]. - **Product Segmentation**: - Wafer revenue: 94% from wafers, 6% from other services [6]. - Major applications: Smartphones (25%), Computers and Tablets (16%), Consumer Electronics (13%), Industrial and Automotive (8%) [6]. Operational Insights - **Capacity and Utilization**: - Increased 12-inch monthly capacity by 21,000 wafers, leading to an overall utilization rate of 90.4%, up 5.2 percentage points [4][5]. - 12-inch wafer revenue increased to 78.5%, while 8-inch wafer revenue decreased to 21.5% due to shipment adjustments [7][8]. Industry Outlook - **Future Growth**: - Full-year revenue expected to be around $8 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 27% [9]. - Anticipated challenges include a potential slowdown in new capacity announcements and price pressures due to oversupply in the market [18][19]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: - Focus on power devices to support automotive and new energy markets [9][20]. - AI and IoT applications are expected to drive demand for semiconductors, with a notable increase in power management needs [35][39]. Strategic Focus - **Long-term Vision**: - SMIC aims to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and maintain a competitive edge in the semiconductor industry by focusing on product mix optimization and expanding its service offerings [10][20]. - **Local for Local Strategy**: - Emphasis on meeting domestic demand and reducing reliance on international supply chains [15][20]. Conclusion - The earnings call highlighted SMIC's strong financial performance in Q3 2024, with a positive outlook for Q4 and the full year. The company is navigating a complex market landscape while positioning itself for future growth in key sectors such as AI, automotive, and power devices.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 136.80 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in gross margin in Q3 2024, enhancing confidence in its autonomous control capabilities. The net profit for Q3 reached 1.06 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%, benefiting from consumer recovery and autonomous control catalysts [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 15.609 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.14%. The revenue growth aligns with the company's performance guidance [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, reaching 23.92%, surpassing the original guidance of 20%. The average selling price (ASP) increased to 966 USD, a quarter-on-quarter rise of 15% [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections indicate a revenue of 56.301 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4%. The net profit is projected to be 4.46 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 7.5% compared to 2023 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised to 0.56 CNY, 0.72 CNY, and 0.92 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates of 0.45 CNY, 0.65 CNY, and 0.91 CNY [4][5]. - The book value per share (BPS) estimates for the same years have also been adjusted to 18.34 CNY, 19.05 CNY, and 19.97 CNY, respectively [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as the largest and most advanced professional wafer foundry in mainland China, expected to benefit significantly from the demand for chip autonomy. The capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 7.5 billion USD, with an anticipated increase in monthly production capacity by approximately 60,000 12-inch wafers by the end of 2024 [4]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Q4 2024, with expectations of revenue remaining stable or growing by 2% quarter-on-quarter, and gross margins maintained between 18% and 20%, exceeding market expectations [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue of $2.171 billion in Q3 2024, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.2% and a year-on-year increase of 58.3% in net profit [4]. - The gross margin improved to 20.5%, exceeding the previous guidance of 18%-20% [4]. - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to remain stable or grow by 2%, with a projected revenue range of $2.171 to $2.214 billion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the overall utilization rate was 90.4%, up by 5.2 percentage points from Q2 2024, with wafer deliveries of 2,122K, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.1% [4]. - The average selling price (ASP) increased by 13.6% to $1,023 per wafer due to changes in product mix [4]. - The company’s capital expenditures for Q3 2024 were $1.18 billion, down from $2.25 billion in Q2 2024 [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be $57.056 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.1% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at $4.346 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.9% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be ¥0.55 [5].

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