里昂发表研报指，中芯国际2025年第四季收入按季升4.5%至24.9亿美元，超越0%至2%的增长指引；毛 利率为19.2%，约处于18%至20%指引区间的中值；平均售价按季上升1%至每片晶圆914美元。公司指 引2026年首季收入按季持平，符合市场预期；而毛利率指引为18%至20%，略低于市场预期的20.9%。 公司预期2026年全年收入增长将高于行业平均水平，资本开支指引则大致与2025年的81亿美元持平。里 昂现予中芯国际H股目标价93.3港元，A股目标价152元，均予"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

中芯国际 联席CEO赵海军在业绩会上回应了部分产能涨价的问题。此前有消息称， 台积电 计划关停部 分生产线，产能减少情况下，2025年年底中芯国际部分产能涨价10%。赵海军表示，价格随着市场供需 关系变化而变化，中芯国际的存储器相关产品在涨价，BCD（工艺代工）供不应求，这是正在发生的 事。由于友商不做一些成熟产能、转而做 先进封装 ，使成熟产能供应量下降，以及AI端侧应用等吃掉 更多产能，现在已看到CMOS CIS、LCD Driver等大宗、原本价格偏低的产品价格不变甚至略升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for SMIC (00981) with a target price of HKD 134 for H-shares, implying a projected P/E ratio of 71.6 times for 2028, and a target price of RMB 241.6 for A-shares, indicating a premium of 196% over H-share valuation, driven by domestic foundry customer demand growth and AI opportunities [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 of the previous year, SMIC's revenue increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to USD 2.5 billion, exceeding both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations by 3%, and surpassing management's guidance of 0% to 2% growth [1] - The gross margin for the period was 19%, aligning with management's guidance of 18% to 20%, and generally matching Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] - Revenue growth was primarily attributed to a 1% increase in wafer shipments and average selling prices quarter-on-quarter, while the gross margin decreased from 22% in the previous quarter due to increased depreciation and amortization expenses [1] Guidance and Outlook - Management's guidance for Q1 indicates flat revenue quarter-on-quarter, which is in line with Goldman Sachs' expectation of 2% growth and market expectations of flat revenue [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q1 remains at 18% to 20%, slightly below Goldman Sachs' forecast of 21.7% and market expectations of 20.9% [1] - For the full year, management anticipates revenue growth to exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain flat year-on-year; Goldman Sachs believes there is potential for upward revision in guidance [1]

2026.02. 11 本文字数：1961，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 郑栩彤 中芯国际（688981.SH）2月10日晚披露2025年第四季度业绩快报后，今日举办了业绩交流会，公 司高管回应了存储缺货、产业链回流、部分产能涨价等问题。 展望后续，中芯国际预计产业链回流的机遇与存储大周期带来的挑战并存。对今年第一季度的指引为 销售收入环比持平，毛利率在18%-20%之间。并预计在外部环境无重大变化的前提下，2026年销售 收入增幅将高于可比同业的平均值。 在问答环节，多名机构分析师问到存储产品供不应求对中芯国际及客户的影响。 赵海军回应称，近两个月中芯国际与产业链伙伴广泛沟通，看到AI对存储的强劲需求挤压了手机等 其他应用领域，特别是中低端领域能拿到的存储芯片供应有限，使相关终端厂商面临存储芯片供应量 不足和涨价压力。即使终端厂商可以通过涨价来消化成本上涨压力，也会导致市场对终端产品需求下 降。在这种情况下，晶圆厂收到的中低端订单减少，但与AI、存储及其他中高端应用相关的订单增 加。 赵海军判断，接下来存储产能不足预计影响电脑及周边等，在手机库存偏高的情况下，预计上半年需 求有一定程度的下降，公司 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip ETF (159995), which opened down by 0.88% at 1.910 yuan on February 11 [1] - Major holdings in the Chip ETF include companies such as SMIC, which fell by 1.89%, Haiguang Information down by 1.54%, and Cambrian down by 1.09% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Securities Semiconductor Chip Index return rate, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 92.76% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a 1.42% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Chip ETF Huatai Fu (516920), which opened down by 0.96% at 1.132 yuan on February 11 [1] - The major holdings of the Chip ETF experienced declines, with notable drops including Cambricon down 1.09%, SMIC down 1.89%, and GigaDevice down 1.69% [1] - The performance benchmark for the Chip ETF is the CSI Chip Industry Index return, with a total return of 14.40% since its establishment on July 27, 2021, and a one-month return of 0.56% [1]

赵海军预测，接下来存储器产能会增加，9个月后就能看到晶圆前端生产产能增加，这些产能会投放到消费类产品。 中芯国际（688981.SH）2月10日晚披露2025年第四季度业绩快报后，今日举办了业绩交流会，公司高管回应了存储缺货、产业链回流、部分产能涨价等问 题。 赵海军判断，接下来存储产能不足预计影响电脑及周边等，在手机库存偏高的情况下，预计上半年需求有一定程度的下降，公司于是将更多产能腾挪给供不 应求的领域，例如数据中心、电源、工业、汽车。在存储器相关的部分，公司感受到的需求非常急，目前已尽可能将产能转为MCU专用存储器或与存储相 关逻辑电路的部分。同时，与数据传输、端侧AI有关的电路需求也在增长。 至于中低端手机需求何时触底反弹，赵海军也作出了判断。"我经历过5轮存储周期，看到终端需求（一开始）可能被放大，就像缺少一张机票会同时去问国 航、东航、南航，售票处一下增加很多需求，但实际需求只有一张。现在大家有些慌张、焦虑，是因为需求被放大，推动价格上涨，中间商囤货议价。但 AI真正带来很多需求的部分是HBM（高带宽内存）、封装测试等，并非前端的晶圆都转去做HBM。"他表示。 赵海军预测，接下来存储器产能会增加， ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.22% at midday, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.07% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.91% [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.3 trillion CNY, a decrease of 949 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - Small metals and rare earth permanent magnet sectors showed strength, while oil and gas, chemicals, paper, and solid-state battery sectors had notable gains [5] - The film and cultural media sectors experienced adjustments, with internet e-commerce, tourism, and hotel sectors showing weakness [5] Stock Highlights - In the Hong Kong market, AI application stocks were active, with Zhihui rising nearly 7%, Kingsoft Cloud increasing by 5.8%, and Bilibili up by 5.5% [6] - Oil and gas stocks saw fluctuations, with Zhongman Petroleum rising over 7% and several other companies in the sector following suit [6] - The newly listed stock N Yisi surged by 78.73% on its first trading day, reaching a total market value of 10 billion CNY [11] Notable Declines - The film sector faced significant declines, with Hengdian Film and Jin Yi Film hitting the daily limit down, and several other companies in the sector dropping over 10% [9] - The ChiNext Index saw a widening decline, particularly in the CPO and cultural media sectors [7] Company Specifics - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a net profit of 1.223 billion CNY for Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [12] - ST Lifang resumed trading with a 2.88% drop, amid warnings from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding significant stock price fluctuations and potential delisting risks [12]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for SMIC (00981) with a target price of HKD 134 for H-shares, implying a projected P/E ratio of 71.6x for 2028, and a target price of RMB 241.6 for A-shares, indicating a premium of 196% over H-share valuation, driven by domestic foundry customer demand growth and AI opportunities [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 of the previous year, SMIC's revenue increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to USD 2.5 billion, exceeding both Goldman Sachs' and market expectations by 3%, and surpassing management's guidance of 0% to 2% growth [1] - The gross margin for the period was 19%, aligning with management's guidance of 18% to 20%, and generally matching Goldman Sachs' and market expectations [1] - Revenue growth was primarily attributed to a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase in wafer shipments and average selling prices, while the gross margin decreased from 22% in the previous quarter due to increased depreciation and amortization expenses [1] Management Guidance - For Q1 of this year, management expects revenue to remain flat quarter-on-quarter, which is in line with Goldman Sachs' forecast of 2% growth and market expectations [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q1 is maintained at 18% to 20%, slightly below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 21.7% and market expectations of 20.9% [1] - For the full year, management anticipates revenue growth to exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain flat year-on-year; Goldman Sachs believes there is potential for upward revision in guidance [1]

2月11日，中芯国际(0981.HK)盘中一度跌4.61%至68.25港元。 消息面上，公司昨晚公布业绩显示，2025年第四季股东应占溢利1.73亿美元，虽然同比增长60.7%，但低于预期的1.83亿美 元。管理层交出今年第一季指引，预计销售收入按季持平，毛利率介乎18%至20%之间。在外部环境无重大变化的前提下， 公司对今年指引为销售收入增幅高于可比同业的平均值，资本开支与2025年相比大致持平。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树 ...