格隆汇2月11日｜中芯国际(0981.HK)盘中一度跌4.61%至68.25港元。消息面上，公司昨晚公布业绩显 示，2025年第四季股东应占溢利1.73亿美元，虽然同比增长60.7%，但低于预期的1.83亿美元。管理层 交出今年第一季指引，预计销售收入按季持平，毛利率介乎18%至20%之间。在外部环境无重大变化的 前提下，公司对今年指引为销售收入增幅高于可比同业的平均值，资本开支与2025年相比大致持平。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index (950125) decreased by 0.68% as of February 11, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The China Securities Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index (931743) fell by 0.83%, also showing varied performance among its constituent stocks [1] - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) experienced a decline of 0.79%, with a latest price of 1.76 yuan, while the Semiconductor Equipment ETF Huaxia (562590) dropped by 0.78%, priced at 1.9 yuan [1] Group 2 - The latest net inflow for the Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF was 1.17 billion yuan, with a total of 50.67 million yuan accumulated over the last five trading days [2] - In contrast, the Semiconductor Equipment ETF Huaxia had a net inflow of 383.42 million yuan over the last 22 trading days, with 16 days showing net inflows totaling 1.273 billion yuan [2] - SMIC's co-CEO Zhao Haijun indicated that the shift towards localization in the semiconductor industry will have a restructuring effect throughout 2025, with rapid transitions in various segments [2] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (60%) and materials (25%) [3] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF Huaxia (562590) emphasizes semiconductor equipment (63%) and materials (24%), targeting the upstream of the semiconductor industry [3] - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector is crucial for domestic substitution, characterized by low domestic replacement rates and high ceilings for domestic alternatives, benefiting from the AI revolution and ongoing technological advancements [3]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华尔街见闻 尽管市场普遍处于淡季，但中芯国际交出了一份"淡季不淡"的成绩单：四季度销售收入24.89亿美元， 环比增长4.5%，产能利用率逆势攀升至95.7%。 2月11日，中芯国际联席CEO赵海军在业绩说明会上详细拆解了公司2025年第四季度业绩及未来展望。 面对复杂的半导体周期，赵海军重点阐述了AI需求对传统市场的"挤压效应"、产能利用率的超预期表现 以及高达81亿美元资本开支背后的逻辑。 具体来看，"8英寸利用率整体超满载，12英寸整体接近满载。" AI强劲需求"挤压"中低端市场 电话会上，最令市场关注的是管理层对半导体需求结构变化的深度拆解。赵海军明确指出，人工智能 （AI）的爆发正在对传统消费电子供应链产生挤出效应。 赵海军指出，经过与产业链伙伴的广泛沟通，公司发现人工智能对于存储的强劲需求，"挤压了手机等 其他应用领域特别是中低端领域能拿到的存储芯片供应。" 这种挤压效应直接传导至终端厂商。赵海军解释道，这使得相关领域的终端厂商面临存储芯片供应不足 和涨价的双重压力。"即使终端厂商可以通过涨价的方式来消化成本上涨的压力 ...

中芯国际给出的2026年第一季度指引显示，销售收入环比持平，毛利率在18%-20%之间。在外部环境无重大变化的前提下，中芯国际给出的2026年指引为： 销售收入增幅高于可比同业的平均值，资本开支与2025年相比大致持平。 | | 2025 年 | 2025年 季度比较 | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第四季度 | 第三季度 | 第四季 | | 销售品圆(1) | 2,514,970 | 2,499,465 | 0.6% 1,991,76 | | 产能利用率(2) | 95.7% | 95.8% | 85.5 | 收入以地区分类，2025年第四季度中国区收入占比环比进一步提升至87.6%；从具体应用来看，2025年第四季度智能手机产品收入占比为21.5%，电脑与平 板产品收入占比为11.8%，消费电子收入占比为47.3%，互联与可穿戴产品收入占比为7.2%，工业与汽车收入占比为12.2%。 | 晶圆收入分析 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 年 | 2025 年 | 2024 年 | | 以应用分类 | 第四季度 ...

高盛发表研报指，中芯国际去年第四季收入按季升4%至25亿美元，较该行及市场预期高3%，并高于管 理层指引的0%至2%增长。期内毛利率19%，符合管理层指引的18%至20%，亦大致符合该行及市场预 期。收入增长主要因晶圆出货量及平均售价按季升1%，而毛利率相比上季的22%有所下降，主要因折 旧及摊销费用增加。 管理层指引今年首季收入将按季持平，与该行预期的2%增长及市场预期的持平大致相符。首季毛利率 指引维持18%至20%，略低于该行预期的21.7%及市场预期的20.9%。针对今年全年，中芯管理层预期收 入增长将高于可比同业的平均水平，资本支出按年持平；该行认为指引有上行空间。 高盛维持中芯国际"买入"评级，H股目标价为134港元，A股目标价为241.6元，对公司的长期增长持正 面看法，由本土无晶圆厂客户需求增长及AI机遇所推动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's stock dropped nearly 4%, currently trading at HKD 68.85 with a transaction volume of HKD 2.943 billion [1] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, SMIC reported sales revenue of USD 2.489 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.5% [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was USD 173 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 60.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.9% [1] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, the company provided guidance indicating that sales revenue will remain flat quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin expected to be between 18% and 20% [1] - Under the assumption of no significant changes in the external environment, the company anticipates that the revenue growth for 2026 will exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain roughly the same as in 2025 [1] Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs noted that the management's guidance for Q1 revenue being flat aligns with their expectation of a 2% growth and the market's flat outlook [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q1 is slightly lower than Goldman Sachs' expectation of 21.7% and the market's expectation of 20.9% [1] - For the full year, management expects revenue growth to surpass the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures remaining stable year-on-year; Goldman Sachs believes there is potential for upward revision in guidance [1]

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's stock fell nearly 4%, closing at HKD 68.85 with a trading volume of HKD 2.943 billion, following the announcement of its financial results and guidance for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, SMIC reported sales revenue of USD 2.489 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.5% [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was USD 173 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 60.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.9% [1] 2026 Guidance - For Q1 2026, the company provided guidance indicating that sales revenue will remain flat quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin expected to be between 18% and 20% [1] - In the absence of significant changes in the external environment, the company anticipates that the revenue growth for 2026 will exceed the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures expected to remain roughly the same as in 2025 [1] Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs noted that the management's guidance for Q1 revenue being flat aligns with their expectation of a 2% growth and the market's flat outlook [1] - The gross margin guidance for Q1 is slightly lower than Goldman Sachs' expectation of 21.7% and the market's expectation of 20.9% [1] - For the full year, management expects revenue growth to surpass the average of comparable peers, with capital expenditures remaining stable year-on-year, indicating potential upside in the guidance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is advancing along two parallel but distinct paths: TSMC leads in cutting-edge process technology, while SMIC focuses on mature processes and advanced packaging strategies, each holding unique advantages in the market [1][2][5]. Group 1: TSMC and SMIC Performance - TSMC reported a record monthly revenue of NT$401.26 billion (approximately $12.71 billion) in January, a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [1]. - SMIC achieved an annual revenue of $9.327 billion, marking a 16.2% year-on-year growth and setting a historical high [1][2]. - Despite differing growth rates, both companies are not in direct competition; TSMC is pushing the limits of process technology while SMIC is solidifying the foundation of Chinese manufacturing [2][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift, with mature process capacity increasingly moving to mainland China, projected to contribute over one-third of global mature process capacity by 2027 [6]. - SMIC's production of 9.7 million wafers in the past year, with a capacity utilization rate of 93.5%, indicates strong demand and operational efficiency [5][6]. - The demand for mature processes remains robust, particularly in sectors like automotive and industrial control, which consume large volumes of chips [5][8]. Group 3: Advanced Packaging and Domestic Technology - Advanced packaging is becoming a strategic focus for domestic technology advancements, with China expected to capture 25% of the global advanced packaging market by 2028 [10]. - The penetration rate of domestic front-end equipment in 28nm and above production lines has exceeded 35%, indicating significant progress in self-sufficiency [8][10]. - The trend of advanced packaging is driving the upgrade of domestic equipment technology, creating a positive feedback loop that enhances the manufacturing ecosystem [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Evaluating semiconductor companies solely based on process technology and growth rates may be misleading; TSMC represents technological excellence, while SMIC is a key player in domestic manufacturing recovery [11]. - For investors, direct investment in individual semiconductor companies carries high risks due to rapid technological changes and market volatility; a diversified approach through ETFs is recommended [11][12]. - Notable ETFs include the Chip ETF (159995), Semiconductor Equipment ETF (562590), and Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170), which provide exposure to the entire semiconductor supply chain and mitigate individual stock risks [12].

截至2026年2月11日10:21，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数(950125)下跌0.78%。成分股方面涨跌互 现，耐科装备领涨2.20%，华峰测控上涨1.93%，华海清科上涨0.87%；神工股份领跌4.01%，芯源微下 跌3.26%，京仪装备下跌2.58%。科创半导体ETF(588170)下跌0.73%，最新报价1.76元。 截至2026年2月11日10:23，中证半导体材料设备主题指数(931743)下跌0.78%。成分股方面涨跌互现，广 立微领涨6.02%，有研新材上涨2.38%，华峰测控上涨2.26%；珂玛科技领跌3.61%，神工股份下跌 3.07%，芯源微下跌3.00%。半导体设备ETF华夏(562590)下跌0.78%，最新报价1.9元。 规模方面，科创半导体ETF近1周规模增长2.15亿元，实现显著增长，新增规模领先同类；半导体设备 ETF华夏最新规模达27.6亿元。 相关ETF：公开信息显示， 科创半导体ETF（588170）及其联接基金（A类：024417；C类：024418） 跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括科创板中半导体设备（60%）和半导体材料（25%）细 分领域的硬科 ...

赵海军认为，存储需求因为危机感，"大家有点慌张，这个需求被放大了。" 在此背景下，公司凭借在BCD、模拟、存储、MCU、中高端显示驱动等细分领域中的技术储备与领先 优势、客户的产品布局，在本轮行业发展周期中，仍能保持有利位置。公司将积极响应市场的紧急需 求，推动2026年收入继续增长。 尽管市场普遍处于淡季，但中芯国际交出了一份"淡季不淡"的成绩单：四季度销售收入24.89亿美元， 环比增长4.5%，产能利用率逆势攀升至95.7%。 2月11日，中芯国际联席CEO赵海军在业绩说明会上详细拆解了公司2025年第四季度业绩及未来展望。 面对复杂的半导体周期，赵海军重点阐述了AI需求对传统市场的"挤压效应"、产能利用率的超预期表现 以及高达81亿美元资本开支背后的逻辑。 AI强劲需求"挤压"中低端市场 电话会上，最令市场关注的是管理层对半导体需求结构变化的深度拆解。赵海军明确指出，人工智能 （AI）的爆发正在对传统消费电子供应链产生挤出效应。 赵海军指出，经过与产业链伙伴的广泛沟通，公司发现人工智能对于存储的强劲需求，"挤压了手机等 其他应用领域特别是中低端领域能拿到的存储芯片供应。" 这种挤压效应直接传导至终端厂 ...