Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Xueda Education (000526 SZ) for the first time, citing its deep expertise in personalized education and the potential for vocational education to drive a second growth curve [2] Core Views - Xueda Education has over 20 years of experience in personalized education, with more than 240 learning centers across 100+ cities as of H1 2024 [2] - The company is expanding into vocational education, cultural reading, and medical-education integration to diversify its business [2] - Founder Jin Xin regained control of the company in 2021 after a period of financial difficulties, stabilizing the ownership structure [2] - The company is transitioning from one-on-one tutoring to full-time education services, which is expected to improve gross margins [4] - High school subject tutoring demand is projected to remain strong, with peak enrollment expected in 2030 and peak college entrance exam takers in 2035 [4] - The vocational education strategy aligns with national talent development goals, with recent acquisitions expanding its footprint in this sector [5] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached RMB 2 247 billion (YoY +25 3%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 176 million (YoY +50 16%) [5] Business Segments Personalized Education - Personalized education accounts for 81% of revenue, with a focus on K12 students [30] - Revenue from this segment is expected to grow at 15%/20%/20% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 2 165 billion, RMB 2 598 billion, and RMB 3 117 billion respectively [11] Full-time Education - Full-time education, targeting high school repeaters and art students, contributed 14% of revenue in H1 2024 [30] - Revenue from this segment is projected to grow at 53%/20%/18% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 362 million, RMB 434 million, and RMB 512 million respectively [11] Vocational Education - Vocational education, including secondary and higher vocational education, currently contributes 1% of revenue [30] - Revenue from this segment is expected to grow at 72%/50%/45% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 50 million, RMB 75 million, and RMB 109 million respectively [11] Cultural Reading - The company operates 10 cultural reading spaces under the "Juxiang Bookstore" brand, contributing to its education ecosystem [54] - Revenue from this segment is projected to grow at 119%/50%/45% annually from 2024 to 2026, reaching RMB 30 million, RMB 45 million, and RMB 65 million respectively [11] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 36 0%, 36 3%, and 36 5% in 2024-2026 due to the increasing contribution of full-time education [12] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 2 676 billion, RMB 3 229 billion, and RMB 3 884 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 205 million, RMB 264 million, and RMB 335 million respectively [6] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is 28X, 22X, and 17X, lower than the average PE of comparable companies [6] Industry Outlook - The vocational education market in China is expected to exceed RMB 1 trillion by 2024 [34] - The number of high school students and college entrance exam takers is projected to peak in 2030 and 2035, ensuring sustained demand for high school subject tutoring [33] - The "Double Reduction" policy has significantly reduced the supply of after-school tutoring institutions, benefiting leading companies like Xueda Education [33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the domestic K12 personalized education sector, with over 100 learning centers across the country. Its teaching model features one-on-one and small class instruction, and it has expanded into vocational education and cultural space sectors, aiming to transform into a comprehensive education group [3][4]. - The education industry is seeing a marginal improvement in policies, with clearer regulatory boundaries and effective rectification of industry chaos. The reduction of offline training institutions by 96.7% as of November 2024 is expected to benefit leading companies like this one [4][13]. - The company has a strong brand recognition and reputation, having served over 2 million students in its 20+ years of operation. The increase in class sizes has significantly improved profitability, with a gross margin of 36.5% at the end of 2023, up from 28% in 2022 [4][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in personalized education for over 20 years, initially starting with a home tutoring platform and expanding to physical learning centers. It has undergone several transformations, including a significant acquisition in 2016 that allowed it to return to the A-share market [83][85]. Industry Analysis - The education sector is primarily driven by policy changes, with a focus on reducing burdens on students and regulating the tutoring market. The "double reduction" policy has led to a significant decrease in the number of training institutions, which is expected to benefit established players [111][113]. - The high school subject training market is projected to recover, with estimated market sizes of 1,364 billion, 1,481 billion, and 1,602 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 8.5% [134][146]. Core Competitiveness - The company has pioneered a personalized "one-on-one" tutoring system, which has become its brand identity. It has a robust network of learning centers and a strong teaching staff, which positions it well in the competitive landscape [162][164]. - The company is increasing the proportion of class-based instruction, which is expected to enhance profitability. The gross margin is projected to remain stable or increase due to this shift [181][182]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.02 billion, 2.52 billion, and 3.05 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.64, 2.05, and 2.48 yuan [5][208]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27.73, 22.23, and 18.35 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. A target price of 51.13 yuan is set for 2025, reflecting a 25X PE valuation [5][218].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xueda Education (000526) is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - Xueda Education is a pioneer in personalized education, established in 2001, listed on the NYSE in 2010, and returned to A-shares in 2016. As of June 2024, it operates over 240 personalized centers across 100 cities and has actively expanded into vocational education since 2021, including secondary vocational education, higher vocational education, and vocational skills training [2][52]. Company Analysis - Xueda Education has undergone three phases: rapid expansion (2007-2015), adjustment (2016-2020), and upgrade post "Double Reduction" policy (2021-present). During the rapid expansion phase, the company provided personalized one-on-one and group classes, achieving a CAGR of 41.8% in center expansion and 59.7% in enrollment growth. Revenue experienced high growth, with gross margins around 25-30% [2][52][65]. - The adjustment phase saw a slowdown in revenue growth, with a CAGR of 5.6% from 2016 to 2019, as the company shifted some demand from one-on-one to small group classes. Gross margins were between 27-29% [2][53][99]. - Since the "Double Reduction" policy, Xueda has focused on non-academic training and vocational education, leading to a recovery in revenue growth starting in 2023, with significant improvements in gross margins [2][54][52]. Industry Analysis - The policy environment is improving, with the Ministry of Education releasing a draft regulation on off-campus training in February 2024, which is expected to accelerate the licensing process for non-academic training. The demographic trends indicate a growth in the eligible population and an increase in high school enrollment, suggesting a sustained high demand for high school subject training over the next decade [2][54]. - The market size for high school subject training is projected to reach 180.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.8% from 2024 to 2029. The non-academic training market is expected to grow to 300.2 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 3.1% during the same period [2][54]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Xueda Education is positioned as a leader in personalized extracurricular training, focusing on high school subject training and expanding into vocational education. The company is expected to benefit from the favorable policy environment and strong demand. Earnings per share are estimated to be 1.66, 2.08, and 2.54 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 26x, 21x, and 17x [2][54].

具体内容请详见公司刊载于指定信息披露媒体的《关于签署<展期协议书三> 暨关联交易的公告》（公告编号：2023-030）、《关于借款事项的进展公告》（公 告编号：2023-039、2023-047、2023-070、2023-075、2024-012、2024-014、2024-039、 2024-062、2024-066）。 二、进展情况 经友好沟通，公司已于近日向紫光卓远偿还借款本金人民币 4000 万元，上 述借款本金对应利息由公司在 2024 年 12 月 31 日前另行支付。截至目前，公司 对紫光卓远的剩余借款本金金额约为人民币 1.59 亿元。 证券代码：000526 证券简称：学大教育 公告编号：2024-089 学大（厦门）教育科技集团股份有限公司 关于借款事项的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、基本情况概述 经学大（厦门）教育科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董 事会第七次会议、2022年年度股东大会审议通过，同意公司与西藏紫光卓远科技 有限公司（曾用名：西藏紫光卓远股权投资有限公司，以下简称"紫光卓远" ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, up 50% year-on-year [5] - In the third quarter of 2024, the company generated a revenue of 630 million yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 50% to 14.19 million yuan [5] - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency and has plans to invest in vocational education and training, aiming to establish a comprehensive talent cultivation system [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 210 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.8% and a gross margin of 32.2% [5] - The management expense ratio slightly increased, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 6.9%, 20.1%, and 2.4% respectively [5] - The company expects revenues of 2.73 billion yuan, 3.31 billion yuan, and 3.98 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 212 million yuan, 270 million yuan, and 333 million yuan [7][10] Valuation and Forecast - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25-30 times for 2025, leading to a reasonable value range of 54.75 to 65.70 yuan per share [7] - The estimated revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.2%, 21.3%, and 20.4% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 37.9%, 27.4%, and 23.4% [8][10] Market Comparison - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025 is estimated at 28.59, compared to its peers such as New Oriental at 13.60 and Aonli Education at 24.02 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 627 million yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.70%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 14 million yuan, a decrease of 49.67% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 9 million yuan, down 45.97% year-on-year [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.247 billion yuan, up 25.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 176 million yuan, an increase of 50.16% year-on-year [3] - The increase in management expenses due to stock incentive costs led to a rise in the management expense ratio. The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 32.24%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company plans to expand its personalized education services and has opened its first bookstore in Shanghai, aiming to establish over 100 bookstores in more than 20 cities within the next five years [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2.769 billion yuan, 3.210 billion yuan, and 3.714 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenue growth rates of 25.17%, 15.92%, and 15.68% [5] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 220 million yuan, 287 million yuan, and 365 million yuan, with net profit growth rates of 42.89%, 30.73%, and 27.11% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.78 yuan, 2.33 yuan, and 2.96 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.247 billion with a year-on-year growth of 25.29% and a net profit of 176 million, reflecting a 50.16% increase [1] - The sales gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 34.98%, up by 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 1.33 percentage points to 7.70% [2] - The company is focusing on business transformation and has identified four core business segments: personalized education, vocational education, cultural reading, and medical-education integration [2] - The company plans to invest 494 million in new business areas, including vocational education and cultural service projects [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 230 million, 323 million, and 464 million respectively, with EPS expected to be 1.86, 2.62, and 3.77 [3] - The P/E ratios for the same period are projected to be 25.3, 18.0, and 12.5 [3] - The company reported a total revenue of 2.748 billion for 2024E, with a year-on-year growth of 24.2% [7] - The net profit for 2024E is projected at 230 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 49.3% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 600 million, a year-on-year increase of 16%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 50% to 14 million [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.2 billion, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 176 million, an increase of 50% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 35%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 7.8%, up approximately 1.3 percentage points [1]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2024-2026, projecting revenues of 2.9 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.3 billion respectively, with EPS estimates of 1.7, 2.3, and 2.8 [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 600 million, with a net profit of 14 million, and a non-GAAP net profit of 10 million, reflecting a decrease of 50% and 46% respectively [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 35% and a net profit margin of 7.8% [1]. - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 1.8 billion, which is expected to grow to 2.9 billion in 2024, representing a growth rate of 30.16% [8][11]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its educational services by acquiring a 90% stake in Yueyang Yusheng Education Investment Co., which will enhance its vocational education offerings in Hunan [4]. - The company is also focusing on building a network of bookstores to promote reading culture, with plans to open over 100 stores in more than 20 cities within five years [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has entered an expansion phase, with a focus on the upcoming peak season's performance. The revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 176 million, up 50.2% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 630 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 49.7% to 14 million, primarily due to operational expansion and stock incentive expenses [1]. - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, with right-of-use assets increasing by 50% compared to the beginning of the year [1]. - The ongoing transformation towards vocational education is expected to gradually contribute to incremental growth, with the company completing an investment in a vocational college [2]. - The growth logic of the company is clear, benefiting from strong trends in personalized education and the dual demand for further education and employment [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue of 2.94 billion for 2024, with a growth rate of 32.82%, and net profit of 215 million, reflecting a profit growth rate of 39.99% [4]. - The projected diluted EPS for 2024 is 1.75, with a PE ratio of 27.74 [4].