Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is planning to repurchase shares, demonstrating confidence in its long-term development. The repurchase amount is set to be no less than RMB 1 billion and no more than RMB 2 billion, with a price cap not exceeding 150% of the average trading price over the previous 30 trading days [3] - The separation of the automotive business from the state-owned enterprise has been completed, upgrading the company to a first-level central enterprise. This restructuring is expected to enhance resource support for the company in areas such as new energy, intelligence, and globalization, thereby strengthening its long-term strategic advancement and core competitiveness [3] - The company has shown a steady revenue growth of 3.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of RMB 114.9 billion. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 14.7% year-on-year due to investments in new energy brands [3] - The investment suggestion highlights a clear trend of profitability improvement for three major new energy brands, alongside sustained high growth in overseas business, indicating a relatively high certainty of performance growth. Additionally, the robotics and flying car businesses are expected to provide valuation flexibility and open up long-term growth potential [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 159.73 billion in 2024 to RMB 225.10 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.6%, 15.0%, 10.2%, and 11.2% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from RMB 4.99 billion in 2025 to RMB 9.20 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of -31.8%, 43.0%, and 28.8% [3] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve gradually from 14.9% in 2024 to 15.9% in 2027 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 6.1% in 2025 to 9.4% in 2027 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB 0.50 in 2025 to RMB 0.93 in 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese new energy vehicle market continues to surge in 2025, with Changan Automobile achieving a total sales volume of 2.913 million units, marking a nine-year high, and the new energy vehicle segment experiencing explosive growth of 51% [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Changan's new energy strategy, particularly through its brand Changan Qiyuan, saw sales surpassing 400,000 units in 2025, despite facing challenges such as high-end positioning setbacks and product quality issues [1][3] - The overall sales figure of 411,000 units for Changan Qiyuan appears impressive but reveals structural issues that could hinder sustainable growth [8][9] Group 2: Product Strategy and Positioning - Changan Qiyuan's product strategy is fundamentally flawed due to unclear brand positioning, leading to internal competition among models with overlapping features and price ranges [3][4] - The flagship model E07, priced between 199,900 to 319,900 yuan, failed to meet market expectations, resulting in sales of less than 1,000 units in 2025 [4][5] - The internal model overlap and lack of differentiation have created confusion among consumers and challenges for dealers [4][5] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Changan Qiyuan's technological innovation is lagging behind industry leaders, with only one model featuring advanced driving assistance systems, while others remain at a basic level [6][7] - The brand's reliance on external suppliers for battery technology and lack of proprietary advancements have hindered its competitive edge [6][7] - The innovation approach appears reactive rather than proactive, failing to address critical user needs and market trends [7] Group 4: Market Challenges - The sales structure is heavily reliant on a few models, with the Lumin electric vehicle accounting for 39% of total sales, indicating vulnerability to market fluctuations [8][9] - The disconnect between sales targets and actual performance suggests that growth is primarily driven by low-cost models rather than breakthroughs in higher-end markets [9][10] - The challenges faced by Changan Qiyuan reflect broader issues within traditional automakers transitioning to new energy vehicles, emphasizing the need for a return to core user value [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the number of automotive manufacturing enterprises in China, which reached 20,572 in 2025, an increase of 803 enterprises compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.06% [1] - The automotive manufacturing sector accounts for 3.91% of the total industrial enterprises in China [1] - The data referenced is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, indicating the reliability of the statistics presented [2] Group 2 - The report titled "2026-2032 China Automotive Manufacturing Industry Market Panorama Survey and Investment Prospects Analysis" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the automotive industry [1] - The threshold for scale industrial enterprises has been raised from an annual main business income of 5 million to 20 million yuan since 2011, which reflects a significant change in the criteria for enterprise classification [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in deep industry research and providing comprehensive industry solutions [2]

2月7日，据媒体报道，长安引力全球品牌主理人房楠与深蓝汽车首席品牌官李攀完成岗位互换。此次调 整后，房楠将全面负责深蓝汽车品牌传播工作，李攀接棒执掌长安引力品牌传播相关业务。(中国汽车 报) ...

Core Viewpoint - Changan Automobile held a global launch event for its "Tianshu Intelligent New Safety" achievements and sodium battery strategy in extreme cold conditions, marking the start of the 2026 global vehicle testing season with five major brands participating in extreme scenario validations [1]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The event took place in Yakeshi, where the temperature reached minus 30 degrees Celsius, showcasing the performance of various models under extreme conditions [1]. - The Avita 12 successfully completed lane change tests on snow and icy surfaces at speeds of 92.3 km/h and 70.7 km/h without deviation [3]. - The Qiyuan A06 demonstrated stable driving at 95 km/h even after a tire blowout [3]. Group 2: Battery Technology - Changan, in collaboration with CATL, launched the world's first mass-produced passenger vehicle equipped with sodium batteries, achieving an energy density of 175 Wh/kg [5]. - The sodium battery's discharge power at minus 30 degrees Celsius is three times higher than that of conventional lithium iron phosphate models, and it maintains over 90% capacity at minus 40 degrees Celsius [5]. - The battery has passed extreme tests, including penetration by a drill and cutting with a saw, demonstrating safety with no smoke or fire, addressing winter range and safety concerns [5]. Group 3: Testing Achievements - Changan has completed over 58 million kilometers of extreme cold testing over 28 years, with more than 4,000 vehicles involved [7]. - The new Avita 12 completed high-speed lane change tests and tire blowout tests without deviation, while the Qiyuan A06 also successfully managed a blowout without veering off course [7]. - The Deep Blue S09 passed the moose test with AEB, and the Kai Cheng V919 successfully tackled a 15% incline with nine passengers [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth by 2026, driving demand for batteries and materials [1]. - Recent fluctuations in material prices for power batteries warrant attention to the pricing situation along the supply chain [1]. - Solid-state batteries are entering a critical phase of engineering validation, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1]. - In the photovoltaic sector, "anti-involution" and "space photovoltaics" are identified as the two main investment themes for 2026, with increased demand for photovoltaic equipment [1]. - The domestic market is seeing a rise in high-power component demand, with downstream battery components relying on efficiency improvements for market clearing [1]. - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with recommendations to focus on wind turbines and offshore wind power [1]. - The energy storage sector remains highly prosperous, with a recommendation to pay attention to energy storage cells and large-scale integrated plants [1]. - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream hydrogen-based energy applications [1]. - Nuclear fusion is seen as a long-term catalyst for energy development, with recommendations to focus on core suppliers in the nuclear fusion power sector [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The power equipment and new energy sector rose by 2.2%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.27% [10]. - The photovoltaic sector saw the highest increase at 3.43%, while the wind power sector experienced a slight decline of 0.01% [13]. Key Industry Information - The China Passenger Car Association estimates that 900,000 new energy vehicles will be wholesaled in January 2026, a 1% year-on-year increase [27]. - Changan Automobile and CATL announced the global launch of the first sodium battery mass-produced passenger vehicle, expected to be available by mid-2026 [27]. - Tesla has achieved large-scale production of dry electrode technology [27]. - The domestic energy storage tender for January 2026 reached 36.3 GWh, with notable bidding scales in Ningxia, Hebei, and Xinjiang [27]. Company Developments - Foster is collaborating with professional institutions to invest in a private equity fund focused on flexible thin-film gallium arsenide battery companies [29]. - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan through a private placement for a 20 GWh power battery project [29]. - TCL Zhonghuan's subsidiary Maxeon Solar signed a patent licensing agreement with Aisuo, with a five-year licensing fee of 1.65 billion yuan [29].

Core Viewpoint - Changan Automobile reported a significant decline in sales for January 2026, with total sales dropping by 51.14% year-on-year to 134,701 units [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - In January 2026, Changan Automobile's production was 164,576 units, a decrease of 9.18% compared to the same month last year [2]. - The cumulative sales for the year so far stand at 134,701 units, reflecting the same year-on-year decline of 51.14% [2]. Group 2: Brand Performance - The main brand's sales reached 100,110 units in January 2026, down 58.46% year-on-year [2]. - The production of the main brand was 131,909 units, which is a 7.61% decrease compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle sales amounted to 36,621 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 45.74% [2]. - The production of new energy vehicles was 53,098 units, which represents a 13.28% increase compared to the same month last year [2].

公 司 研 究 电动智能化稳步推进，计划回购强信心 长安汽车(000625) ——长安汽车公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 张觉尹(分析师) | 021-23185705 | zhangjueyin@gtht.com | S0880525040057 | | 潘若婵(分析师) | 021-23154145 | panruochan@gtht.com | S0880525110006 | 本报告导读： 运输设备业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 13.47 | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 11.01-14.18 | | 总市值(百万元) | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changan Automobile [2][5] Core Views - Changan Automobile announced a share buyback plan of 1-2 billion yuan, reflecting strong confidence in its long-term strategic layout and intrinsic value [2][11] - The company is steadily advancing its electrification and intelligence strategies, with a projected total sales target of 3.3 million vehicles in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [11] - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 0.56 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 1.01 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 13.47 yuan based on a 17x PE ratio for 2026 [11][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 151.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 234.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.6% [4][12] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline from 11.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.5 billion yuan in 2025, before recovering to 10.0 billion yuan in 2027 [4][12] - The company’s net asset return rate is forecasted to improve from 15.8% in 2023 to 10.2% in 2027 [4][12] Sales and Production Outlook - In 2025, Changan's cumulative sales reached 2.913 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 51.1% to 1.109 million units [11] - The company plans to enhance its new energy product lineup, targeting 1.4 million new energy vehicles in 2026, which is a 26.2% increase year-on-year [11] Strategic Developments - Changan has launched its sodium-ion battery strategy and introduced its first mass-produced vehicle equipped with this technology, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [11] - The company is also advancing its high-level intelligent driving and robotics initiatives, having received a formal license for L3 autonomous driving, indicating its readiness for market-scale operations [11]

Core Insights - Changan Automobile recently held the Tian Shu Intelligent New Safety Achievements Release and Sodium Battery Strategy Global Launch in Yakeshi, successfully passing technical verification for extreme winter scenarios [1] Group 1: Vehicle Performance - Multiple models under Changan Automobile have achieved impressive results, with the Changan Qiyuan A06 featuring the Tian Shu Intelligent Tire Blowout Stability System, maintaining a speed of 95 km/h on icy roads, ranking first in its class [3] - The Avita 07 introduces a zero-energy catalytic range enhancement technology, improving low-temperature range achievement to 61.2%, leading the industry [3] - The Avita 12, equipped with a unique distributed electric drive system and intelligent dynamic torque control technology, successfully changed lanes at speeds of 92.3 km/h and 70.7 km/h on snow and icy roads, setting industry testing records [3] - The Avita 12 also demonstrated excellent performance in climbing icy slopes, utilizing pulse escape and four-wheel drive vector control technology to quickly extricate itself from challenging winter conditions [3] Group 2: Battery Technology - Changan has made significant advancements in battery safety by partnering with CATL to launch a sodium battery ecological solution, creating the world's first mass-produced passenger vehicle with sodium batteries [4] - The new sodium battery from CATL has an energy density of up to 175 Wh/kg, representing the highest level in the industry [4] - Vehicles equipped with the sodium battery can achieve nearly three times the discharge power at -30°C compared to conventional lithium iron phosphate models, with over 90% capacity retention at -40°C, and stable discharge even at -50°C [4] - The sodium battery has passed extreme tests, including drill penetration and cell sawing, demonstrating safety features such as no smoke or fire during these tests [4]