事件 公司发布2025 年一季报，公司Q1 实现营收341.6 亿元，同环比分别为-7.7%/-30.0%；归母净利润13.5 亿 元，同环比分别为+16.8%/-63.8%；扣非后归母净利润7.8 亿元，同环比分别为+601.3%/-13.6%。 收入增长承压，成本优化与效率提升助力盈利改善 公司Q1 实现营收341.6 亿元，同环比分别为-7.7%/-30.0%。毛利率13.9%，同比提升1.1pct，主要系公司 成本优化。财务收入达10.7 亿元，同比高增341.3%。 成本优化叠加效率提升增强公司盈利能力。公司实现归母净利润13.5 亿元，同环比分别为 +16.8%/-63.8%；扣非后归母净利润7.8 亿元，同环比分别为+601.3%/-13.6%，核心业务盈利能力显著增 强。2025 年一季度，公司总批发销量达70.5 万辆，同比+1.9%。其中，自主品牌一季度销量61.1 万辆， 同比+3.8%。 三大计划全面提速，稳步推进电动化+智能化+全球化 公司"香格里拉"、"北斗天枢"、"海纳百川"三大计划全面提速。新能源转型效果显著，2025 年Q1 新能 源销量19.4 万辆，其中阿维塔/深蓝/启源 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 长安汽车（000625） 2025 年一季报点评：业绩符合预期，三大计 划齐头并进 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券分析师 黄细里 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孟璐 执业证书：S0600524100001 mengl@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -28% -23% -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 2024/4/29 2024/8/27 2024/12/25 2025/4/24 长安汽车 沪深300 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 151,298 | 159,733 | 187,685 | 208,354 | 223,021 | | 同比（%） | 24.78 | 5.58 | 17.50 | 11.01 | 7.04 | | 归母 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.35 billion yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year but down 63.8% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 780 million yuan, a significant increase of 601.0% year-on-year, but down 13.7% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The company's sales of self-owned passenger vehicles reached 453,000 units in Q1 2025, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year but a decrease of 10.8% quarter-on-quarter. The sales of self-owned new energy passenger vehicles were 194,000 units, up 50.7% year-on-year but down 30.4% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.9%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year and 2.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased terminal discounts and lower cost reductions recognized in the quarter [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was 34.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 30.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.35 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 63.8% [1][2]. - The company’s gross profit margin decreased to 13.9% in Q1 2025, impacted by increased competition and pricing pressures [1][2]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s self-owned passenger vehicle sales reached 453,000 units in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.8%. The sales of self-owned new energy vehicles were 194,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.7% [1][2][3]. - The company plans to launch new models under the Deep Blue and Avita brands, aiming for a global sales target of 500,000 units in 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of 189.6 billion yuan, 209.5 billion yuan, and 233.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 8.87 billion yuan, 10.76 billion yuan, and 12.72 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.89 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.28 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 34.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.35 billion yuan, up 16.8% year-on-year but down 63.8% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit was 780 million yuan, a significant increase of 601.0% year-on-year, but down 13.7% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company's sales of self-branded vehicles reached 453,000 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.8%. The sales of self-branded new energy vehicles were 194,000 units, up 50.7% year-on-year but down 30.4% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.9%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year and 2.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased terminal discounts and lower cost reductions [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - The report forecasts revenues of 189.55 billion yuan, 209.46 billion yuan, and 233.54 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.87 billion yuan, 10.76 billion yuan, and 12.72 billion yuan [4][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.89 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.28 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 11, and 10 [4][5] - The company plans to accelerate its new energy transition with new models and aims for global sales of 500,000 units in 2025, including 400,000 units domestically and 100,000 units overseas [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.01 CNY [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see improvements in profitability for its self-owned new energy brands, with a focus on advancing smart technology and expanding overseas [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 80.30 billion, 94.71 billion, and 113.13 billion CNY respectively, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 21 times the average of comparable companies [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 151.298 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 24.8%. The revenue is expected to reach 159.733 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 5.6% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 11.327 billion CNY, reflecting a 45.2% increase year-on-year. However, it is expected to decrease to 7.321 billion CNY in 2024, a decline of 35.4% [4] - The gross margin for 2023 is 17.3%, with projections of 14.9% in 2024 and improvements to 18.2% by 2027 [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.95 CNY for every 10 shares to all shareholders in 2024 [9] Sales and Market Expansion - The sales volume of the company's self-owned new energy vehicles is expected to maintain high growth, with significant increases in sales for brands like Deep Blue and Avita [9] - The company aims to introduce 12 new products in high-growth markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East in 2025 [9]

Financial Overview - Changan Automobile reported a total operating revenue of 34.161 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.73% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.353 billion yuan, an increase of 16.81% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses surged to 783 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 601.31% [1] Main Financial Indicators - The report did not provide detailed breakdowns of the main revenue composition, but overall, the decline in main revenue may impact the company's future profitability [3] Financial Analysis - The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for the previous year was 6.47%, indicating a generally average capital return rate [4] - The net profit margin was 3.82%, suggesting that the added value of the company's products or services is not high after considering all costs [4] Debt Servicing Ability - The company's cash assets are healthy, but cash funds decreased from 70.068 billion yuan to 60.129 billion yuan, a decline of 14.18% [5] - Interest-bearing liabilities increased from 2.154 billion yuan to 3.62 billion yuan, an increase of 68.07%, which may exert pressure on the company's future debt servicing ability [5] Financing and Dividends - Since its listing, Changan Automobile has accumulated a total financing amount of 13.371 billion yuan and total dividends of 21.185 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend financing ratio of 1.58, indicating a strong emphasis on shareholder returns [6] Business Model - The company's performance primarily relies on research and development as well as marketing efforts, necessitating further investigation into the effectiveness of these drivers to assess their sustainability [7] Cash Flow Situation - The company's cash flow situation warrants attention, with the ratio of cash funds to current liabilities at only 84.92% and the average operating cash flow over the past three years to current liabilities ratio at 14.26%, indicating potential risks in cash flow management [8] - Overall, while Changan Automobile achieved a growth in net profit in Q1 2025, it faces challenges in main revenue and cash flow, necessitating ongoing monitoring of its future strategies and market performance [8] Key Financial Ratios - Gross margin was 13.86%, a year-on-year increase of 8.43% [9] - Net profit margin was 3.56%, a year-on-year increase of 53.98% [9] - The ratio of operating expenses to revenue was 4.79%, a year-on-year decrease of 28.89% [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) was 0.14 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.67% [9] - The per-share operating cash flow was -0.35 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 166.74% [9] - The per-share net asset value was 7.88 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.77% [9]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The core viewpoint is that China's smart technology is leading globally, and establishing standards is crucial for sustaining rapid industrial development [1][5][6] - Strengthening safety regulations will not hinder the development of smart technology but will promote healthier growth [6][5] - The company emphasizes that safety is the baseline for the development of smart technology, which is a corporate responsibility [6][5] Group 2: Company Strategy - The company is accelerating its global "Inclusive" plan, focusing on localizing operations to reduce overseas costs [2][9] - Current adjustments involve treating the company as a local entity in different regions, such as "European Changan" and "South American Changan" [9][10] - The company has a 20% share of overseas sales personnel, with 60% of the workforce being local talent, indicating a strong emphasis on local talent for cost management [10] Group 3: Long-term Vision - The company's long-term strategy is encapsulated in the phrases "innovation and change" and "perseverance" [7][8] - The company prioritizes customer-centric approaches and adheres to local employment, legal, and tax considerations [8] - The company maintains a principle of investing in research and development, emphasizing efficiency [8] Group 4: External Challenges - The ongoing US-China trade tensions pose significant challenges for the automotive industry, increasing import and export costs [11] - The company does not have a presence in the US market, which mitigates the impact of these tensions on its operations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Changan Automobile, has released its first quarter report for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the information disclosed [1][11]. Financial Data - The first quarter report has not been audited [2][8]. - The company confirms that there are no adjustments or restatements required for previous accounting data [2]. - Non-recurring gains and losses are applicable, with specific details to be disclosed in accordance with the relevant regulations [2][3]. Shareholder Information - There are no changes in the top 10 shareholders or the top 10 unrestricted circulating shareholders due to securities lending activities [5]. Board Meeting - The board meeting held on April 25, 2025, approved the first quarter report with unanimous consent from all participating directors [10]. - The financial information in the report has been reviewed and approved by the company's audit committee [9]. Investor Engagement - The company will hold a performance briefing on April 28, 2025, to provide investors with a comprehensive understanding of the company's situation [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Changan Automobile is committed to accelerating its globalization strategy while ensuring the safety and standardization of its intelligent driving technologies, emphasizing that safety should be the baseline for the development of intelligent vehicles [2][3][9]. Group 1: Globalization Strategy - Changan's overseas sales currently account for 20%, with only 1.7% of management personnel being overseas [7]. - The company aims to localize its operations in international markets, referring to its European operations as "European Changan" to enhance competitiveness against established global players [2][7]. - A significant change in strategy involves sending leaders to overseas markets for extended periods to better understand local conditions and needs [7][22]. Group 2: Intelligent Driving and Safety - Changan supports the standardization of intelligent driving technologies and believes that establishing standards will promote healthier development rather than hinder progress [2][8]. - The company emphasizes that enterprises should not exaggerate the capabilities of intelligent driving systems and must focus on safety as a fundamental responsibility [2][6]. Group 3: Impact of US-China Trade Relations - The ongoing US-China trade tensions pose challenges for the automotive industry, potentially increasing costs by billions for some companies [3][9]. - However, Changan is less affected as it does not have significant operations in the US, viewing it primarily as a research direction for future entry [3][9]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - Changan's collaboration with Huawei is deepening, transitioning from a technical partnership to a broader engagement that includes user insights, product definition, and marketing services [4][15]. - Huawei has integrated over 300 personnel into Changan's Avita brand to assist in developing future flagship models [4][15]. Group 5: Innovation and Long-term Strategy - Changan's long-term strategy is rooted in innovation and adaptability, with a focus on combining national interests with corporate goals [10][12]. - The company is committed to investing significantly in research and development, with over 10 billion annually, to ensure alignment with national needs and technological advancements [10][12]. Group 6: Market Positioning and Product Strategy - Changan is exploring new technology trends, including flying cars and robotics, to position itself for future opportunities [16]. - The company recognizes the need for a diversified product strategy that includes both electric and hybrid vehicles to meet varying consumer demands [17][20]. Group 7: Challenges and Opportunities in International Markets - Changan aims to create globally recognized classic products while ensuring sustainable development in overseas markets [19][22]. - The company is focused on understanding local market dynamics and making meaningful contributions to the economies where it operates [22].

Core Viewpoint - Changan Automobile showcased its latest smart vehicles and technologies at the 2025 Shanghai International Automobile Exhibition, emphasizing its commitment to innovation and leadership in the automotive industry [1][4][28]. Group 1: New Products - Three new smart vehicles were unveiled: Changan Qiyuan Q07, Deep Blue S09, and Avita 06, representing the latest technological advancements from Changan's three brands [4][17]. - The Deep Blue S09, a flagship six-seat smart SUV, is based on Huawei's intelligent solutions and aims to set new standards for family travel [20]. - The Changan Qiyuan Q07 features a range exceeding 200 kilometers for plug-in hybrid models and boasts a comprehensive range of 1400 kilometers [21]. Group 2: New Technologies - The Changan Jinzhongzhao all-solid-state battery made its debut, achieving a high energy density of 400Wh/kg and a 70% improvement in safety [22]. - The "Tianheng chassis" was showcased with interactive demonstrations, highlighting Changan's advancements in smart driving and vehicle technology [22][24]. - Changan's exhibition included innovative technologies across air, land, and sea transportation, featuring flying cars, humanoid robots, and intelligent equipment [24]. Group 3: Strategic Plans - Changan announced three accelerated strategic plans: "Shangri-La" for new energy, "Beidou Tianshu" for intelligence, and "Haina Baichuan" for globalization [4][28]. - The company aims to achieve total sales of 5 million vehicles by 2030, with 3 million being new energy vehicles and 1.2 million sold overseas [4][12]. - Changan is committed to a multi-power strategy, planning to launch 45 new products in the next five years, including 37 new energy vehicles [16]. Group 4: Globalization Efforts - Changan emphasizes the importance of globalization for high-quality development, with plans to enhance its presence in five major overseas markets [12]. - The company has established nine overseas factories, with the first overseas new energy vehicle base in Thailand set to commence production soon [12]. - Changan's global strategy aims to transition from "product export" to "brand export" and "industry export," expanding market capacity from 30 million to 50 million [12].