Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecast of various A-share listed companies, indicating a significant divergence in earnings growth across different sectors, driven by technological advancements, cost control, and industry cycles [4][62]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Earnings Growth - **New Yisheng (300502.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, driven by rising demand for high-speed optical modules due to global computing power investments [6]. - **Han's Laser (688256.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion, turning from a loss of 0.452 billion in the previous year, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI computing power [8]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, supported by strong investment in computing infrastructure [10]. - **Runze Technology (300442.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance [12]. - **CITIC Securities (601995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%, driven by steady growth in core business segments [15]. Group 2: Companies with Earnings Below Expectations - **Great Wall Motors (601633.SH)**: Expected net profit of 9.912 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, impacted by increased marketing expenses and intense competition [34]. - **GAC Group (601238.SH)**: Expected net profit of -8 billion to -9 billion, turning from a profit of 0.824 billion in the previous year, due to fierce competition and adjustments in product structure [36]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (002506.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -0.89 billion to -1.29 billion, turning from a profit of 0.068 billion, affected by structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry [38]. - **Boli Tianheng (688506.SH)**: Expected net profit of -1.1 billion, turning from a profit of 3.708 billion, due to increased R&D expenses [39]. - **Daiyue City (000031.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -2.7 billion to -2.1 billion, continuing losses from the previous year, influenced by asset impairment provisions [42]. Group 3: Industry Trends - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Industries driven by technology, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, are showing strong growth, with companies like New Yisheng and Rongchang Bio leading the way [62][63]. - **Cost Control**: The energy and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a clear divide, with companies like Datang Power benefiting from lower coal prices and effective cost management [64]. - **Downward Pressure from Industry Cycles**: The real estate, agriculture, and photovoltaic sectors are under significant pressure, with companies like Vanke and Tianbang Food facing substantial earnings declines [65][66].

证券之星消息，2月2日养殖业板块较上一交易日下跌2.27%，天邦食品领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4015.75，下跌2.48%。深证成指报收于13824.35，下跌2.69%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002124 | 天邦食品 | 2.56 | -6.91% | 108.78万 | 2.83亿 | | 002321 | 华英农业 | 2.33 | -6.80% | 76.40万 | 1.82亿 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 7.98 | -5.56% | 79.74万 | 6.45亿 | | 002157 | 正邦科技 | 3.13 | -5.15% | 238.43万 | 7.60亿 | | 300761 | 立华股份 | 19.27 | -4.18% | 10.37万 | 2.03亿 | | 000876 | 新希望 | 8.67 | -4.09% | 65.84万 | 5.73亿 | | 002982 | 湘佳股份 | 14.35 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall weakness of hog prices is difficult to reverse due to continuous release of production capacity pressure [1] - In February 2026, the market generally expects a significant decline in spot hog prices after the Spring Festival, with the post - holiday low possibly falling below 11.5 yuan/kg [5] - In trading, it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling. After the Spring Festival, wait for the spot low to buy contracts 05 and 07 at low prices, or hold long futures positions and sell deep out - of - the - money call options [5] - Pay attention to the seasonal low of spot prices after the Spring Festival and the culling of breeding sows [95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 January Hog Spot and Futures Price Review - In January 2026, the overall commodity market strengthened, and the agricultural product index rebounded. However, the hog index hit a new low and continued to fluctuate at a low level [9][10] - The hog spot price rebounded briefly in January and then fell back to a historical low. The price of piglets rebounded significantly, and the feed price was relatively strong [14][17][20] - Terminal consumption did not improve significantly, the average price of白条 meat fluctuated at a low level for a long time, and the pressure of poultry prices on hog prices decreased [23][29] - The hog price showed a slight upward trend before the Spring Festival this year. Historically, the average monthly increase in January was - 2.3%, and the probability of an increase was 46% [32] Hog Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows is currently in the green reasonable range, with a limited overall decline compared to 2024 [34][35] - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared to previous years, and the current culling of breeding sows is relatively moderate [36][38] - The production efficiency of single sows has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises is gradually narrowing [40] Listed Hog Enterprises - In 2025, the slaughter volume of leading group companies increased significantly year - on - year. However, the profitability of group enterprises was highly differentiated, and most still suffered losses [45][46] - In 2025, the overall breeding cost of group enterprises decreased, but the differences were large, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies was at a historically high level [49][50] Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In January, the sentiment of passive hog retention was still high, the weight reduction speed of the industry was slow, and the slaughter volume was at a historically low level [54][57][59] - The import volume of pork and offal declined from a high level, and the overall frozen product inventory was in the destocking stage in January [61][64] - In January, self - breeding and self - raising turned profitable, while the slaughter of purchased piglets continued to be in a loss state [67][68] Hog Futures Price - The hog futures price rebounded following the spot price and then fell back. The near - month futures price has become at a discount to the spot price [69] - The hog index failed to rebound from a historical low, and the trading volume was at a historically high level. The ratio of hog to feed on the futures market was close to a historical low [70][73] - Contracts 2603 and 2605 are below the breeding cost, and there is an expectation of a post - holiday off - season with a discount to the spot price. The price of peak - season contracts is slightly higher than the breeding cost but has a high premium to the current spot price [75][78] - The basis is slightly stronger than in the same period of previous years. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival spot price trend. There may still be reverse arbitrage opportunities between months, and the discount before the futures delivery month is still high [81][84][87] - The volatility of the hog 2605 contract is at a low level [93]

近日，新希望发布投资者关系活动记录表。当中披露，谈及公司定增和闲置产能处置最新进展，新希望 表示，在定增方面，公司正积极配合交易所推进定增审核，2026年1月上旬收到了通知，同意下修募集 资金规模至33.38亿。公司已经完成了相关的董事会审议、信息披露程序，并且更新了申报材料。目前 在等待交易所的进一步通知。在闲置产能处置方面，首先公司闲置场线的情况以及对成本的影响，在 2025年总体是稳定的。公司对此的主要措施，首先还是通过提高自育肥比例来盘活部分育肥场，这个比 例在2025年初还是32%，到年底就提升到接近40%了。此外，公司也积极与产业合作方商谈合作，既有 通过出租方式零散合作的一些场，也有在谈的较大的资产合作，因为涉及到的交易安排比较复杂，商谈 过程也会比较长，在当前最新的形势下肯定会有一些新的挑战，等到有确定性结果达到相应的披露要求 时会及时披露。 （企业公告） 关于海外饲料的中长期发展规划，新希望称，公司希望到2030年前后，海外饲料业务能达到1000万吨目 标。就短期来看，2026年海外在2025年基础上要实现破百万吨的增长。在区域市场上，还是聚焦现有14 个国家提高市占率，尤其是越南、印尼、埃 ...

新希望 20260130 摘要 新希望六和 2025 年因资产清理和减值计提导致亏损，其中 60%以上为 一次性影响，主要为提前处置低效种猪以提升种猪质量，为 2027 年战 略做准备。 饲料业务在 2025 年达到历史最高销量，实现量利双增，国内外市场均 有改善，海外市场保持高速增长，经营性现金流稳定在 92 亿元左右， 吨完全费用同比降低 30 元。 生猪养殖通过健康管理（降低非洲猪瘟发病率，净化伪狂犬病）、生产 管理（提高母猪窝均断奶数，提高育肥效率）和育种改良（引进国外优 质精液）等措施降低成本，运营成本降至 12.2 元/公斤。 2026 年，新希望六和将坚持现有战略，饲料业务上规模、调结构、提 效率，提高单场满负荷率，加强预混料外部市场开发，海外市场提升产 能利用率，并加强海外人才储备。 2026 年生猪养殖目标是每公斤成本降低 1-1.5 元，饲料完全费用再降 20 元，通过种质资源优化、提高养殖效率、减少过程损耗等多方面实现 综合成本下降。 Q&A 请介绍一下新希望六和在 2025 年的业绩表现及主要原因。 新希望六和在 2025 年预计亏损 15 至 18 亿元，同比转亏。主要原因是第四季 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices by 6% to 12.21 CNY/kg, while the price of white feather chicken products has increased to 9,400 CNY/ton [3][4] - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has been profitable for three consecutive weeks, with a profit of 25.1 CNY per head [3] - The report recommends continued investment in the pig farming sector, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Tiankang Biological, Wens Foodstuff, and Lihua Agricultural [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.86 kg, with the proportion of heavy pigs (over 150 kg) at 5.78% [3] - The price of two-yuan sows remains stable at 1,559 CNY/head, while the price of piglets has increased by 3.3% week-on-week [3] - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines post-Chinese New Year due to expected capacity reduction in the pig industry [3] Chicken Farming - The price of white feather chicken products has risen to 9,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [4] - Yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months, with an average price of 14.95 CNY/kg [4] - The report notes a historical high in the number of breeding stock for white feather chickens, with a total of 157.42 million sets updated in December 2025 [4] Cattle Industry - As of the end of 2025, the cattle stock in China has decreased by 8.6%, with expectations for prices to rise in the first half of 2026 [8] - The report suggests that the decline in cattle stock is a precursor to rising beef prices, with historical data supporting this trend [8] Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion CNY [7] - The pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [7]

| 投资者 | □特定对象调研 | √分析师会议 | □媒体采访 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关系活 动类别 | □新闻发布会 | □现场参观 | □其他 | | | | 单位名称 | 人员姓名 | 单位名称 | 人员姓名 | | | 招商证券 | 施腾 | 华泰证券 | 季珂 | | | 招商证券 | 李秋燕 | 财通证券 | 江路 | | | 中信证券 | 彭家乐 | 高盛 | 袁帅 | | | 广发证券 | 李雅琦 | 汇丰前海 | 沙弋惠 | | | 时代财经 | 周立 | 华泰证券 | 张宗 | | | 高盛 | 刘洋 | 摩根 JP | 陈晓光 | | 参与单 | 中信证券 | 杜克 | 诚盈投资 | 胡蓉 | | 位名称 | 国盛海通 | 王艳君 | 天弘基金 | 杨倩 | | 及人员 | 中信建投 | 郭璐 | 玄卜投资 | 韦琦 | | 姓名 | 银石私募 | 罗采奕 | 浙商资管 | 唐靓 | | | 鸿运私募 | 朱伟华 | 同泰基金 | 董万江 | | | 三登投资 | 黄伯涛 | 国信证券 | 周雅童 | | | 熙山资本 | 张亮 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit loss of 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to fluctuations in pig prices and operational challenges in its pig farming business [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company expects a net profit loss of 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit loss estimated between 1.18 billion to 1.48 billion yuan [1] - New Hope's pig farming business has faced pressure due to a decline in pig prices, which fell more than the reduction in production costs, leading to decreased profitability [1][2] - In 2025, New Hope sold 17.5454 million pigs, generating sales revenue of 23.205 billion yuan, but the average selling price of pigs has been on a downward trend, reaching a low of 11.28 yuan per kilogram in December 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Context - The pig farming industry has experienced collective profit declines due to price fluctuations, with 12 listed companies in the A-share pig farming sector forecasting reduced net profits for 2025 [2] - The average profit for self-bred and self-raised pigs in 2025 dropped significantly, with a decline of 78.42% year-on-year, averaging 74.96 yuan per pig [3] - Analysts predict that pig prices may gradually recover in 2026, with expectations of a V-shaped price trend, influenced by supply adjustments and seasonal demand [3]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司已就业绩预告有关事项与负责公司年报审计的会计师事务所进行了预沟通，公司与会计师事务所 在本次业绩预告方面不存在重大分歧。 证券代码：000876 证券简称：新希望 公告编号：2026-11 债券代码：127049 债券简称：希望转2 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 1、业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 2、业绩预告情况：预计净利润为负值 （1）以区间数进行业绩预告的 单位：万元 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 新希望六和股份有限公司 董 事 会 本次业绩预告未经注册会计师审计。 三、业绩变动原因说明 报告期内，公司稳步发展与提升生猪业务，加强防疫与生产管理，出栏规模稳健提升，各项技术指标持 续改善，养殖成本持续降低，但受生猪市场行情波动影响，生猪价格下降幅度大于成本下降幅度，致公 司生猪养殖利润较同期下降。同时，公司对部分低效种猪及低效资产进行有序淘汰和清退，亦影响公司 利润下降。 与此同时，公司在饲料业务上持续扩规模、提效率、降费用，强化内生能 ...