许樱之 国泰海通社服分析师: 对于一些热门城市或者周边的城市来讲的话。它是有非常强的一个拉动的效应的，这个是 就是未来的值得期待的一个春节的部分。第二点，其实我觉得是可以比较期待，就是整个 带薪年休假的一个修订。因为其实我们去看到，就是包括可能很多人他心里，大家也是有 感知，就是很多人他其实他的年假其实还是没休完的。包括我们去看到人社部，其实他在 之前的整体的一个公开资料当中也去披露了，就是根据 2024 年的一个数据显示，中国职 工法定的一个带薪年休假大概是在 10 天左右。 但是实际上，这些人他平均享受的年休假天数，仅仅是 6.29 天。所以这块来讲的话，其 实整体的一个执行的效果，我们是认为是有望去提升的。然后其实如果这些休假能够执行 到位的话，其实能够充分的去提升整体的一个错峰的一个输出行的这样的一些需求。包括 其实也有学者提出来，就是休假时间对于整个国内的一个旅游消费，它是存在比较强的一 个促进的效应的。比如说像带薪年假。国，黄金周的一个休假时间增加 10%国内的整体的 一个旅游消费，是有望增加 1.5~2%左右的，而且整体的带薪休假对旅游者的整体的一个 餐饮、购物、还有娱乐这块的影响效应是比较强的 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aimed at boosting consumption during the holiday season [3] - It emphasizes the positive outlook for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in the OTA sector [4] - The report also notes the potential in the gold and jewelry market, recommending stocks with low valuations and improved competitive landscapes [4] - The impact of subsidies on the milk tea sector is acknowledged, with specific recommendations for brands benefiting from these subsidies [4] - AI applications and undervalued new consumer sectors are identified as areas of interest, with several companies recommended for investment [4] Summary by Sections Travel and Hospitality - The report recommends several hotel stocks, including Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and JinJiang Hotels, as well as duty-free stocks like China Duty Free Group [4] - Scenic spots such as Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, and Huangshan Tourism are highlighted as investment opportunities [4] Gold and Jewelry - Stocks like Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Laopuhuangjin are recommended based on short-term data exceeding expectations and improved competitive dynamics [4] New Consumer Trends - Companies such as Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, and Tianli International Holdings are suggested for their potential in AI applications and new consumer trends [4] Low Valuation and High Dividend Stocks - Recommendations include Jiangsu Guotai, Yum China, and Haidilao, focusing on low valuation and high dividend yield stocks [4] Market Performance - The report notes a decline of 0.91% in the retail sector and a rise of 0.70% in consumer services, ranking them 20th and 9th respectively among 30 industries [4] - Notable stock performances include Junting Hotel (+10.38%) and Haidilao (+8.64%) [4] Industry Updates - The report discusses the issuance of a special activity plan by multiple government departments to promote various consumption sectors [4] - It also mentions the acceptance of the first commercial real estate REITs by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [4] - Recent acquisitions, such as Meituan's purchase of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, are highlighted [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aimed at boosting consumption during the holiday season [3] - It emphasizes optimism towards tourism-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and ongoing anti-monopoly measures in the OTA sector [4] - The report also suggests a favorable outlook for the gold and jewelry sector, recommending stocks with low valuations and improved competitive landscapes [4] - The impact of subsidies on the milk tea industry is noted, with specific recommendations for brands benefiting from these initiatives [4] - AI applications and undervalued new consumer sectors are highlighted, with several companies recommended for investment [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report suggests continued optimism for tourism-related sectors, recommending specific companies such as Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and China Duty Free Group [4] - It also recommends gold and jewelry companies like Caibai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Laopuhuangjin, focusing on those with short-term data exceeding expectations [4] - The milk tea sector is expected to benefit from subsidies, with recommendations for brands like Guming and Hushang Ayi [4] - AI and new consumer applications are highlighted, with recommendations for companies like Kangnait Optical and Huatu Shanding [4] - Low valuation and high dividend yield stocks are recommended, including Jiangsu Guotai and Haidilao [4] Market Review - The report notes a decline of 0.91% in the retail sector and a rise of 0.70% in consumer services, ranking them 20th and 9th respectively among 30 industries [4] - Notable stock performances include Junting Hotel (+10.38%) and Haidilao (+8.64%) [4] Industry Updates - The report mentions the issuance of a special activity plan by multiple government departments to promote various consumption sectors [4] - It also notes the acceptance of the first commercial real estate REITs by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, expanding the scope to retail, hotels, and office buildings [4] - Recent acquisitions, such as Meituan's purchase of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, are highlighted [4] Company Announcements - Key announcements include the resignation of the general manager of HeBai Group and the signing of a land compensation agreement by a subsidiary of an agricultural products company [4]

[Table_Industry] 社会服务业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股 票 研 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.07 政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎黄金投资期 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 社会服务业《金价持续上涨，春运出行高景气》 2026.01.25 社会服务业《新设口岸进境免税店，扩大免税市 场规模》2026.01.22 社会服务业《CPI 有所回升，CES 智能眼镜热度 延续》2026.01.11 社会服务业《消费政策利好，文旅行业迎来消费 回暖》2026.01.08 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 旅游行业深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@ ...

Group 1 - The tourism and scenic area sector increased by 0.71% on February 4, with Caesar Travel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - Key stocks in the tourism sector showed various performance, with Caesar Travel closing at 6.47, up 3.69%, and Xi'an Tourism at 10.53, up 3.54% [1] Group 2 - The tourism sector experienced a net outflow of 65.82 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 132 million yuan [2] - Notable stocks with significant fund flows included Caesar Travel with a net inflow of 73.92 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow from retail investors of 58.75 million yuan [3] - Yunnan Tourism had a net inflow of 14.19 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 8.36 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes in civil aviation [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in online travel agencies (OTAs) [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold market, as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Industry Updates - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, urging local governments to enhance policy design and support measures [4]. - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 16% year-on-year [4]. - Retail sector insights indicate a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a significant decline in 2024 [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. forecasts a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - The report includes various companies with "Accumulate" ratings, such as Zhou Dafu, Cai Bai Co., and others, with detailed profit forecasts and valuation metrics [5].

从资金流向上来看，当日旅游及景区板块主力资金净流入2405.6万元，游资资金净流出1.07亿元，散户资 金净流入8252.14万元。旅游及景区板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000524 岭南控股 | | 2780.38万 | 9.91% | -762.14万 | -2.72% | -2018.24万 | -7.19% | | 000888 峨眉山 A | | 2435.45万 | 6.89% | -2143.60万 | -6.06% | -291.85万 | -0.83% | | 002707 众信旅游 | | 2015.84万 | 5.29% | -2776.46万 | -7.29% | 760.61万 | 2.00% | | 603402 陕西旅游 | | 1204.43万 | 3.23% | -798.08万 | -2.14% | -406.35万 | -1.09% | ...

东方证券研报指出， 峨眉山A客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望改善。公司完成换届并推进茶旅 布局，新年开局良好。26年元旦三天（1/1-1/3） 景区接待游客126,166人次（购票83,391、免票 42,775），同比24年元旦三天+20.88%。同时，股东回馈活动（25/12/1-26/1/31、法定节假日除外）提供 门票免票及索道/酒店/温泉等优惠，预计对12月及1月非节假日客流形成额外拉动。交通与运力改善在 路上，预计抬升中长期客流。在景区行业业绩仍有波动的背景下，公司持续以现金分红回馈股东，体现 出较强的现金流质量与股东回报意愿；同时也有助于提升资金使用效率与投资者回报确定性，对估值形 成一定支撑。考虑到25全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，调整2025-2027年EPS预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61元（此前为25-26年为0.63/0.69元），根据可比公司26年32倍PE对应目标价17.28元，维 持"买入"评级。 ...

东方证券研报指出，峨眉山A客流回暖，股东回馈拉动淡季，运力有望改善。公司完成换届并推进茶旅 布局，新年开局良好。26年元旦三天（1/1-1/3）景区接待游客126,166人次（购票83,391、免票 42,775），同比24年元旦三天+20.88%。同时，股东回馈活动（25/12/1-26/1/31、法定节假日除外）提供 门票免票及索道/酒店/温泉等优惠，预计对12月及1月非节假日客流形成额外拉动。交通与运力改善在 路上，预计抬升中长期客流。在景区行业业绩仍有波动的背景下，公司持续以现金分红回馈股东，体现 出较强的现金流质量与股东回报意愿；同时也有助于提升资金使用效率与投资者回报确定性，对估值形 成一定支撑。考虑到25全年收入偏弱，运力和交通还需一定时间释放，调整2025-2027年EPS预测为 0.45/0.54/0.61元（此前为25-26年为0.63/0.69元），根据可比公司26年32倍PE对应目标价17.28元，维 持"买入"评级。 ...