证券代码：000951 证券简称：中国重汽 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20250408 | 投资者关系活动 | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 信达证券 赵悦媛 农银汇理基金 廖 凌 | | 及人员姓名 | 信达资管 万 毅 新华资产 阴 舒 | | | 浙商资管 胡晓楠 天弘基金 严 浩 | | 时 间 | 2025 年 4 月 8 日 10:00-11:00 | | 地 点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司 接待人员姓名 | 投关专员 胡 啸、何炳易 | | | 公司投关专员胡啸女士简要介绍了公司情况，并针对投 | | | 资者关心的问题进行了沟通和交流。主要内容如下： | | | 1、公司目前的产销情况怎么样？ | | 投资者关系活动 | 根据第一商用车网数据，今年第一季度，我国重卡市场 | | 主要内容介绍 | 累计销量约为 26.1 万辆，同比降幅为 4%。公司目前产销量 | | | 情况均好于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Hubei Huawi Special Automobile Co., Ltd. has obtained a patent for a safety device that prevents unauthorized access to the manhole cover of tank vehicles, enhancing security against oil theft [1] Group 2 - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Hubei Huawi Special Automobile Co., Ltd. was established in 2002 and is primarily engaged in the automotive manufacturing industry [2] - The company has a registered capital of 62.77 million RMB and has made investments in 2 other enterprises [2] - The company has participated in 142 bidding projects and holds 258 patents along with 4 trademark registrations and 64 administrative licenses [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates Weichai Power as a "Buy" and Sinotruk as a "Sell" based on their respective market positions and earnings outlooks [8][24]. Core Insights - The China heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry is expected to enter a multi-year upcycle driven by normalization in replacement demand, with domestic demand forecasts raised by 14-26% for 2025E-2030E, anticipating a volume doubling by 2030E compared to 2024 [1][15]. - The penetration rates for LNG HDTs and electric HDTs (eHDTs) are projected to increase to 36% and 35% respectively by 2030E, with clean/new energy HDTs expected to account for over 70% of total HDT demand by 2030E [1][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The report raises the outlook for the heavy-duty truck industry in China, indicating a positive cycle inflection into 2025E, supported by a rebalanced truck fleet size against current activity levels [17]. - The expected peak in sales volume is projected at 1.2 million units by 2030E, compared to 1.55 million units at the previous cycle peak in 2020 [15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that emission policies will play a crucial role in shaping the demand trajectory, with potential upgrades to emission standards and the phase-out of high-polluting trucks expected to drive demand [2]. - The domestic HDT sales volume is anticipated to see a mean reversion, gradually moving back to normalized replacement demand levels [9]. Company-Specific Insights - Weichai Power is favored due to its improving earnings power cycle-over-cycle, while Sinotruk faces margin pressure from a slowdown in high-margin export business and the impact of truck electrification [8][20]. - Revised EPS estimates for Sinotruk for 2025E-27E are 15-25% below consensus estimates, while Weichai's estimates are 6-18% above consensus, reflecting a more favorable outlook for Weichai [20][23]. Financial Projections - The report introduces new revenue and net profit estimates for both companies, with Weichai's target price raised to HK$22.00/RMB24.00 from HK$14.61/RMB16.30, while Sinotruk's target price is adjusted to HK$18.60 from HK$17.30 [21][24]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic sales volume, with projections indicating a recovery in sales momentum driven by favorable replacement policies [25][66].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by robust sales in the heavy truck segment, particularly in new energy vehicles [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 44.929 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.48 billion yuan, up 37.04% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 11.342 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.32% and 23.5%, respectively [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 8.7%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.2%, up 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Sales and Market Position - The company sold 133,000 heavy trucks in 2024, a 4% increase year-on-year, outperforming the heavy truck industry [1]. - The market share of the company reached 27.2% in 2024, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, solidifying its position as the industry leader [3]. - The company ranked second in the market for natural gas heavy trucks with a market share of 23.6% and fourth in the new energy heavy truck segment with a market share of 9.5% [3]. Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to experience an upward cycle over the next three years, with the company poised to benefit as the industry leader [3]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 54.2 billion, 60.9 billion, and 68.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 12%, and 12%, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the heavy truck industry in China faced significant challenges, with overall sales declining by 1.03% to 901,700 units. However, leading companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) managed to achieve growth through strategic adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - CNHTC reported a revenue of 95.062 billion yuan, marking an 11.19% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.858 billion yuan, up 10.16% [2]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 245,031 heavy trucks, representing a 4.6% increase, and improved its market share by 1.5 percentage points to 27.2%, securing the top position in both sales and market share [1][2]. Group 2: Globalization Strategy - CNHTC has established a comprehensive international market network, with 80 overseas offices and over 200 dealerships across 110 countries, enhancing its ability to respond to market demands [3]. - The company has successfully transitioned from simple product exports to localized operations, which has helped mitigate trade barrier risks and improve product iteration capabilities [3]. Group 3: New Energy Development - In 2024, CNHTC's sales of new energy heavy trucks surged by 294%, with market share increasing by 3.7 percentage points, driven by technological advancements and targeted applications [4]. - The company is pursuing a diversified technological approach, developing pure electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel technologies, which allows it to meet various customer needs effectively [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to see a recovery in 2024, supported by the resurgence of manufacturing and construction sectors, positioning CNHTC to capitalize on this growth [7]. - With favorable policies and technological advancements, CNHTC is well-positioned to transform industry demand into high-quality development opportunities, potentially leading the market in growth [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 25.50 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, driven by the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy for National III vehicles, which is expected to release additional demand. The company is also benefiting from cost control measures and its leading market position, suggesting a positive outlook for 2025 as the policy expands to National IV vehicles and LNG trucks [1][3]. - The company's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 8.68% for 2024, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin is projected at 3.29%, up 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, supported by a decrease in selling and administrative expenses [2][4]. - The total sales volume for heavy trucks in 2025 is expected to reach 1.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%. This growth is attributed to the expanded scope of the "old-for-new" policy and improved market conditions, which are likely to enhance both volume and pricing for the industry [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 44.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.80%, and a net profit of 1.48 billion RMB, up 36.96% year-on-year. The fourth quarter revenue is expected to be 113.42 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.32% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.47% [1][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 55%, with a cash dividend of 4.05 RMB per 10 shares [2][4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.50 RMB in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 17 times, reflecting its strong market position and profit elasticity [4][6]. Market Outlook - The heavy truck industry is anticipated to experience a favorable environment in 2025, with improved demand driven by government policies and market dynamics. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, enhancing its profitability and market share [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) experienced a 4.3% year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales, driven by the growth in new energy heavy trucks and export sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, China National Heavy Truck reported revenue of 44.929 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.80% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 36.96% [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 8.68%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The market share of China National Heavy Truck rose to 27.2%, up by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Heavy Truck Market Dynamics - The heavy truck industry is closely linked to sectors such as highways and real estate, with low demand for engineering heavy trucks and increased competition impacting market development [1]. - In 2024, the total heavy truck sales in China were 912,000 units, a decline of 1.0% year-on-year [1]. - China National Heavy Truck sold 133,000 heavy trucks in 2024, benefiting from the rise in new energy heavy trucks and export sales [1]. New Energy and Export Growth - In 2024, domestic sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 82,000 units, marking a remarkable year-on-year growth of 140% [2]. - China National Heavy Truck sold 6,166 new energy heavy trucks, with a year-on-year increase exceeding 600%, and its market share improved by 3.7 percentage points [2]. - The export of heavy trucks from China National Heavy Truck reached 134,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [2]. Future Outlook - The commercial vehicle market is expected to show stable operation and recovery growth, driven by the large-scale elimination of National IV vehicles and opportunities in gas vehicles [3]. - Key projects and regional shifts in industry are anticipated to bring incremental demand for heavy trucks [3]. - Continued growth in demand for cold chain logistics, express delivery, and cross-border transportation is expected [3]. - The rapid development of new energy heavy trucks and the trend towards electrification for short and medium-distance heavy trucks are highlighted [3]. - Internationally, the Belt and Road Initiative and the economic rise of regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East are expected to provide significant growth opportunities for export business [3].

中国重汽 20250328 摘要 Q&A 公司如何确保 2025 年股权激励目标的完成？在 2025 年是否有一些后续的股权 激励目标或经营情况的指引？ 2025 年公司股权激励目标是营业收入 1,090 亿元，销售利润率 8%。从当前情况 来看，国内市场持续恢复，海外市场不容乐观，实现这一目标存在一定压力。 公司将采取一系列措施努力达成目标，包括以下几个方面：一是在国内市场， 不断调整产品结构，提升中高端重卡和高端轻卡等高盈利性产品的市场占有率； 二是全力开拓以欧美品牌为主的高端海外市场，如沙特、南非、澳大利亚、南 美等区域，提高高端产品和高盈利性产品结构性占比；三是大力推动后市场业 • 中国重汽预计 2025 年重卡行业综合规模在 90 万到 100 万辆之间，主要驱 动因素包括宏观经济向好、"十四五"收官之年政策支持、国四车以旧换 新以及新能源重卡推广等。 • 公司 2024 年毛利率小幅下降至 15.6%，主要受出口区域和产品结构变化影 响，但通过加强费用管控和数字化转型，利润增幅远超收入增幅，实现高 质量发展。 • 截至 2024 年底，中国重汽应收账款大幅增长，主要受出口区域结构变化及 国内客户结 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Jinan Truck Co., Ltd. reported strong financial performance for 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a robust operational capability and market position [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2024 reached 44.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 36.96% compared to the previous year [3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.33 billion yuan, up by 27.28% year-on-year [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities surged to 5.28 billion yuan, marking a substantial increase of 149.69% [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 8.68%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the total operating revenue was 11.34 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.32% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q4 was 546 million yuan, up 28.44% compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items for Q4 was 470 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.52% [2]. Sales and Market Position - The company sold 133,000 heavy trucks in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [4]. - In contrast, the overall heavy truck sales in China decreased by 1.0% to 912,000 units, highlighting the company's strong market performance [4]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses for the company amounted to 799 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.75% [4]. - The proportion of R&D investment to operating revenue rose to 1.78%, compared to 1.40% in 2023 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's resilience in operations is evident, with 2024 Q3 performance surpassing industry standards [7] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 449.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [7] - The company is expected to maintain long-term growth momentum due to policies favoring the replacement of old heavy trucks and trends towards high-end and refined logistics operations [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023 revenue: 42.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.0% - 2024 revenue: 44.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% - 2025 revenue forecast: 48.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [6][7] - Net Profit: - 2023 net profit: 1.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 405.5% - 2024 net profit: 1.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.0% - 2025 net profit forecast: 1.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6% [6][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024 EPS: 1.26 yuan - 2025 EPS forecast: 1.49 yuan [6][7] Business Segment Performance - Complete Vehicle Business: - 2024 sales volume reached 133,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, while the overall heavy truck market saw a decline of 1% [7] - Parts Business: - 2024 parts revenue: 8.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [7] - Axle Business: - 2024 axle revenue: 7.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 770 million yuan, maintaining a profit margin of 10.8% [7] Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 23.90 to 26.89 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16-18 times for 2025 [7]