Investment Performance - The January stock portfolio achieved a return of +15.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 13.77 percentage points and 8.31 percentage points respectively [2] - The portfolio included one Hong Kong stock with a return of 11.04%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 6.85% [2] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (+23%), media (+18%), and oil and petrochemicals (+16%) [2] February Investment Strategy Outlook - The A-share market has seen increased volatility since late January, influenced by valuation levels and external factors such as precious metals and the US dollar index [3] - The strategy suggests selecting stocks with solid fundamentals and low implied expectations, while maintaining a balanced portfolio to avoid overexposure to any single sector [3] - Key indicators to monitor include the trends in precious metals, the US dollar index, and A-share market trading volume [3] February Stock Recommendations Power Equipment and New Energy - Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH) is recommended due to its leadership in optical fiber and expected benefits from increased demand driven by AI investments and a significant investment plan from the State Grid [5][6] Electronics - Helin Micro-Nano (688661.SH) is favored for its potential growth in the chip testing market, driven by increased complexity and demand for FT probes [7] Robotics - Amperelong (301413.SZ) is highlighted for its expansion in automotive sensor products and its role in the emerging field of humanoid robots [9][10] Media - Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is recommended due to its rapid growth in cloud services and AI-related products, with a significant market share in China's public cloud IaaS market [12][13] Transportation - Southern Airlines (600029.SH) is positioned to benefit from high capacity and operational efficiency, with a projected increase in passenger volume [14] New Materials - Huafeng Aluminum (601702.SH) is expected to benefit from the demand for aluminum materials in the new energy vehicle sector and the trend of "aluminum replacing copper" [16] Building Materials - China Jushi (600176.SH) is recommended as it is positioned to benefit from a market shift in electronic fabrics and the ongoing demand for fiberglass [17] Real Estate - China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ) is favored for its strong asset structure optimization and focus on core cities, which positions it well in the current market environment [18] Non-Banking Financials - China Life (601628.SH) is expected to perform well in 2026, with strong sales and investment returns [19] North Exchange - Haixi Communications (920405.BJ) is recommended due to its expanding energy storage business and stable traditional operations [22]

1月24日，静安里·新里天地风貌商业街区品牌揭幕盛典落幕。招商蛇口与华发股份双强联袂，携AArt、 WeCycle、Msblack、上下四大志同道合的品牌伙伴，以"檐下新赏 风貌新潮"为约，在这片沉淀着海派 百年风华的土地上，共同开启了城市更新与品质生活的崭新篇章。 以城市更新之笔，绘就海派商业新图景 招商蛇口与华发股份，两位深耕上海的城市共建者，以双强之力，为静安里·新里天地注入百年风貌底 蕴与现代高奢所往的价值基底。 招商蛇口上海公司第一事业部副总经理李刚在致辞中，深度解读了"江河三里"的战略布局——从弘安里 到桐安里再到静安里，三座风貌巨著以江河为纽带，串联起上海的历史与繁荣，共同引领人居迈入"藏 品级"时代。 而静安里与一街之隔的弘安里形成天然联动，构建起近10万平方米的苏河风貌区城市更新集群，弘安里 奠定高端基底，静安里则以苏河风貌区历史建筑开放浓度最高的场域，诠释"风貌商业街区里的风貌纯 墅"，让海派生活的繁华肌理完整重现。在规划上，项目延续百年南市北里的原生格局，南市约9000㎡ 石库门风貌商业沿武进路铺展，清水红砖、复古檐角完整保留海派基因，未来将汇聚高端零售、艺术展 览、文化沙龙等多元业态， ...

招商蛇口 2025 年全口径签约销售额达 1,906 亿元，在上海等 10 个城 市销售排名前三，验证了战略布局及产品竞争力。同时，公司积极推进 轻资产业务，物业服务稳固头部地位，非开发业务收入占比提升，有助 于平滑周期波动。 公司坚持谨慎聚焦策略，在上海、北京、深圳等高能级城市获取 40 多 宗地，总建筑面积超 400 万平方米，总地价超 900 亿元，为未来增长 奠定基础。同时，优化债务结构，年末平均融资成本行业领先，确保资 金安全。 尽管面临短期利润压力，招商蛇口仍保持盈利状态，通过全面管理体系 强化营销，优化债务结构，确保货币资金安全。公司高度重视股东回报， 未来三年现金分红比例不低于归母净利润的 40%。 公司对存在减值迹象的项目进行资产减值准备，2019 年至 2024 年共 计提 240-245 亿减值，以逐步释放亏损并提升资产质量。未来将继续采 取审慎态度，根据市场变化及时调整策略。 2025 年新货值占总货值的 50%左右，项目平均成本净利润率 （ROIC）达到 12%-13%。通过以销定投、以销定资策略，保持良好现 金状况，为后续高质量投资提供基础，优化资产负债结构。 Q&A 招商蛇口 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

证券研究报告 房地产 | 房地产开发 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 02 日 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 175,008 | 178,948 | 159,571 | 149,719 | 144,614 | | 同比增长率（%） | -4.37% | 2.25% | -10.83% | -6.17% | -3.41% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,319 | 4,039 | 1,073 | 1,472 | 1,687 | | 同比增长率（%） | 48.20% | -36.09% | -73.42% | 37.15% | 14.57% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.70 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.19 | | ROE（%） | 5.28% | 3.64% | 0.96% | 1.31% | 1.49% | | 市盈率（P/ ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 国务院支持旅居项目建设，关注地产板块配置价值 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/24-26/1/30） | | | 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.4%、深证成指下跌 1.6%、创业板指下跌 0.1%、沪深 300 上 升 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：大悦城(+17.1%)、 京能置业(+12.5%)、新城控股(+11.4%)、京投发展(+7.7%)、招商蛇口(+7.1%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：华联控股(-14.9%)、西藏城投(-13.6%)、城建发展(-12.9%)、华夏幸福(-11.9%)、 万通发展(-11.5%)。 联系人 板块表现： ...

房地产 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，三条红线政策逐步退场 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/24-2026/1/30） 本期投资提示： 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升、二手房环比下降，新房成交推盘比回落。上周 (1.24-1.30)34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

Core Insights - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [3] - The equity sales for the same group reached 132.14 billion yuan [3] - The top ten companies by sales include Poly Development, China Overseas, China Resources, Greentown China, China Travel Investment, China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, Jianfa Real Estate, Vanke, and Binjiang Group, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [3] Sales Performance - The average sales for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, while the average for companies ranked 11-30 was 2.6 billion yuan, also showing a decline [4] - The ranking of companies has shifted significantly compared to the previous year, with Vanke dropping from 5th to 9th place, while China Travel Investment emerged as a "dark horse" in 5th place [3][4] Market Trends - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active following the September 2024 policy changes [6] - The industry is undergoing an adjustment phase, with a decrease in the number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales, while those achieving over 5 billion yuan have increased, indicating a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition" [6] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 saw year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, with approximately 8.1 million square meters of new residential sales in 50 key cities, while the second-hand housing market saw a notable increase, with transaction volumes rising by 33% year-on-year [7][8] - The second-hand market's recovery is contributing to stabilizing market expectations, with some cities experiencing a reduction in listing volumes [8] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has been signaling a focus on stabilizing market expectations, with recent policy measures including interest rate cuts and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [9] - The upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, and the introduction of quality projects could maintain a certain level of market activity in core cities [9] - As of the end of 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies have made progress in debt restructuring, but the challenge remains in converting financial relief into sustainable operational capacity [9]

Core Insights - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales revenue of 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [1] - The equity sales amount for the same group was 132.14 billion yuan [1] - The top ten companies by sales included Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and China Resources Land, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [1] Sales Performance - The average sales revenue for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [2] - Companies ranked 11-30 had an average sales revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.6% [2] - Companies ranked 31-50 reported an average sales revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active due to policy changes [5] - The real estate industry is undergoing an adjustment, with a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition," leading to resource concentration among stronger companies [5] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 reported year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [5] Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, while the second-hand housing market demonstrated notable growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 33% year-on-year [6] - The central government has been signaling stability in market expectations, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations to stabilize the real estate market [6] - Recent policy measures include lowering the down payment ratio for commercial property loans and adjusting monetary policy tools [6] Future Outlook - As the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, which may sustain some activity in core city markets [7] - There are ongoing challenges for companies to convert financial restructuring into sustainable operational capabilities [7]