百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 2026年开年，百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 1月31日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%；同期，TOP100房企权益销售额为1321.4亿元。 房企销售金额前十依次为：保利发展、中海地产、华润置地、绿城中国、中旅投资、招商蛇口、中国金茂、建发房产、万科、滨江集团，其中仅保利、中 海、华润单月销售过百亿。 对比上年同期，房企销售位次已经发生了较大变化。头部房企中，保利、中海、华润、绿城的顺序未变，但万科从上年1月的第5位，下滑至今年1月的第9 位。中旅投资短期内成为"黑马"，闯到今年1月房企全口径销售榜第5位。 TOP10随后的房企中，招商蛇口、建发房产、滨江集团变化不大、依然位列其中，但是华发股份从去年1月的第6位降至今年1月的第18位，同期中国铁建 从第10位降至第13位，中国金茂则从去年1月的第13位升至今年1月的第7位。 克而瑞数据显示，1月全国重点50城市新建商品住宅成交面积约810万平方米，表现较为清淡，新房市场整体进入淡季；同期，重点13城市二手房成交面积 约810万平方米，环比上升16% ...

房地产 2026 年 01 月 31 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 29 日，证监会正式受理首批三只商业不动产 REITs，分别是汇添富上海地 产、中金唯品会以及华安锦江 REIT。 点评： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报，覆盖底层资产为办公楼、酒店和奥特莱斯。1 月 29 日，上交所公示首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报受理：1）汇添富上海地产 REIT，底层 资产为上海黄浦区鼎保大厦、鼎博大厦两个办公楼；预计募集规模 40.02 亿元、2026-27 年净现金流分派 ...

Core Viewpoint - The majority of A-share listed real estate companies are expected to report significant losses for the year 2025, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Loss Predictions - Out of 52 listed real estate companies, 40 are expected to report losses for 2025, which means over 80% of these companies are projected to be in the red [1]. - Five companies are expected to report losses exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Vanke leading at a projected loss of 820 billion yuan, followed by China Fortune Land Development, Greenland Holdings, Overseas Chinese Town, and Gemdale [2][3]. - Vanke's cumulative losses for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be nearly 1,315 billion yuan, surpassing the total profits from 2019 to 2023 [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The losses are attributed to declining property prices and significant impairment provisions that companies have had to make over the past two years [9][10]. - Many companies had previously anticipated a market recovery and began to recognize inventory impairments, but the continued market downturn has forced them to increase these provisions [10]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Profits - Twelve companies are expected to report profits, with Jinke Real Estate projected to achieve a net profit of 300 billion to 350 billion yuan, primarily due to successful restructuring [12][13]. - Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are also expected to report profits, albeit with significant declines compared to 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions [16][17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The list of loss-making companies includes a mix of private, state-owned, and central enterprises, indicating that the nature of the company does not correlate with the likelihood of losses [7]. - State-owned platform companies, which previously supported land acquisitions, are now facing increased pressure due to the ongoing market decline [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming annual report season in March and April 2025 will provide more detailed insights into the operational conditions of these companies [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector [6]. Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China is expected to significantly improve corporate cash flow and performance, optimizing financial statements and guiding the industry towards a new model of development [2][6]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has entered the application stage, accelerating the development process [6]. - The report highlights several recommended companies across different categories, including development, residential-commercial, property management, and cultural tourism [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs covers diverse asset types such as hotels, offices, and commercial complexes, enhancing the range of underlying assets [2]. - Specific REITs mentioned include: 1. Huazhong Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 1.703 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 3.44% for 2025 [6]. 2. Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 4.002 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.50% for 2026 [6]. 3. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 7.47 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.57% for 2026 [6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [8]. - Notable companies include: - Vanke A, with a projected EPS of -4.17 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 54.22 [8]. - China Overseas Development, with a projected EPS of 1.43 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 8.93 [8]. - Longfor Group, with a projected EPS of 1.58 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 5.93 [8].

Core Insights - The real estate market in 2026 will require a fundamental shift in buying logic, focusing on trust and delivery capabilities of brands rather than just physical attributes of properties [1][10] Group 1: Importance of Delivery and Brand Trust - Delivery is crucial as it marks the beginning of trust between buyers and developers, with many past buyers facing disappointments due to unmet expectations [2] - In Xi'an, China, China Merchants Shekou is recognized as the "king of delivery," having successfully delivered over 20,000 units with positive owner feedback [3] - The future of real estate will shift from selling properties to ensuring long-term happiness and satisfaction for residents, emphasizing the need for brands to invest in community services and operations [11][12] Group 2: Evolving Standards for Good Housing - The standards for good housing in 2026 will extend beyond basic metrics like layout and greenery to include community spirit, public spaces, and evolving amenities [5][6] - Community engagement is becoming essential, with developers like China Merchants Shekou involving prospective owners in planning and designing their future living spaces [6] Group 3: Practical Advice for Homebuyers - Homebuyers should prioritize brand strength as the first criterion in their selection process, focusing on companies with proven track records and solid reputations [12] - A shift from investment logic to lifestyle logic is recommended, encouraging buyers to consider how their daily lives will be impacted by their housing choices [12] - Buyers are encouraged to become co-creators of their communities rather than passive recipients, actively participating in the development of their living environments [12]

北京商报讯（记者 李晗）1月30日，招商蛇口发布公告显示，预计2025年度招商蛇口实现归母净利润 10.05亿—12.54亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润1.54亿—2.31亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. (招商蛇口), expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 1.005 billion to 1.254 billion yuan, which represents a decrease of 69% to 75% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated decline in net profit is primarily attributed to impairment signs in certain real estate development projects, leading the company to prudently recognize impairment provisions based on market conditions [1]. - The scale of property development project deliveries has decreased, resulting in a year-on-year decline in operating revenue [1]. - Investment income from joint ventures and gains from equity sales have also decreased compared to the previous year [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Merchants Shekou, forecasts a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, with expected figures showing a decrease of 69% to 75% compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated to be between 1.005 billion and 1.254 billion yuan [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is forecasted to be between 154 million and 231 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 91% to 94% [1] Reasons for Decline - The decline in profit indicators is primarily attributed to several factors: 1. Certain real estate development projects showing signs of impairment, leading the company to prudently recognize impairment provisions based on market conditions [1] 2. A decrease in the scale of real estate project deliveries during the reporting period, resulting in a year-on-year decline in operating revenue [1] 3. A reduction in investment income from joint ventures and gains from equity sales compared to the previous year [1]

转自：智通财经 【招商蛇口：2025年净利同比预降69%-75%】智通财经1月30日电，招商蛇口(001979.SZ)公告称，招商 蛇口预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为10.05亿元-12.54亿元，比上年同期下降69%-75%。报告 期内，公司利润指标同比下降的主要原因系部分房地产开发项目存在减值迹象，公司结合市场情况，根 据谨慎性原则相应计提减值准备；本期房地产开发项目集中交付规模减少，营业收入同比下降；对联合 营企业的投资收益及股权出售收益同比减少。 ...

Financial Projections - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between ¥1,005 million and ¥1,254 million, representing a decline of 69%-75% compared to ¥4,038.57 million in the previous year[3]. - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between ¥154 million and ¥231 million, a decrease of 91%-94% from ¥2,449.25 million in the previous year[3]. - The basic earnings per share is expected to be between ¥0.08 and ¥0.11, down from ¥0.37 in the previous year[3]. Reasons for Decline - The decline in profit indicators is primarily due to impairment provisions for certain real estate development projects, reduced delivery scale of real estate projects, and decreased investment income from joint ventures[5]. Communication and Accuracy - The company has communicated with the auditing firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no significant discrepancies in the forecast data[4]. - There are currently no major uncertainties affecting the accuracy of the performance forecast[6]. Preliminary Data Warning - The company warns that the forecast data is preliminary and the final financial data will be disclosed in the official 2025 annual report[7].