回收现金聚焦梯媒主业，看好长期业绩韧性 广告营销 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 报告摘要 股价与行业-市场走势对比 联营公司数禾展业受限，公司计提资产减值，退出项目。2025 年 10 月 1 日起，国家 金融监督管理总局加强对互联网主带业务的资质审核、合作模式和风险分担机制等核 心环节的监管要求，对公司持股 54.97%（无控制权）的联营公司上海数禾信息科技 的核心经营业务产生不利影响。公司决定退出该项目。 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 14,442.20 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 14,442.20 | | 市价(元) | 7.14 | | 市值(百万元) | 103,117.31 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 103,117.31 | 1、《生活圈媒体龙头，碰一下+出海 支撑第二增长曲线》2025-12-30 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the focus of fund managers on semiconductor equipment and technology sectors, highlighting the performance of key fund managers and their investment strategies in these areas [4][20]. Fund Manager Performance - Fund managers Xie Zhiyu and Qiao Qian have significant management scales of 38.6 billion and 24 billion respectively, with annualized returns of 18% and 13.52% since their tenure began [4]. - Xie Zhiyu's fund, Xingquan Helun Mixed A, achieved a return of 35.7% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 18 percentage points [4][5]. - Qiao Qian's fund, Xingquan Business Model Mixed A, recorded a return of 38.05% in 2025, with a net value growth exceeding 10% in early 2026 [5][6]. Investment Focus - Both fund managers are concentrating on technology sectors, particularly overseas computing power and semiconductor equipment [8][9]. - Xie Zhiyu maintains a high equity position, with 92.5% of the fund's net value in stocks by the end of the fourth quarter [11]. - Qiao Qian's fund also operates with a high equity position of 94.4% at the end of the fourth quarter [16]. Portfolio Adjustments - Xie Zhiyu's fund saw significant changes in its top holdings, with the introduction of storage testing and module leader Baiwei Storage, which is expected to see a net profit growth of 427%-520% in 2025 [12]. - New entries in the top ten holdings for Xie Zhiyu include semiconductor equipment stocks Tuo Jing Technology and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation, Lens Technology, and Focus Media exited the list [13]. - Qiao Qian's fund also adjusted its top holdings significantly, with six new entries, including Baiwei Storage and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation and Lens Technology were removed [17]. Overall Market Outlook - The two fund managers agree on the positive outlook for technology sectors, particularly semiconductor equipment, storage, and overseas computing power [20].

Group 1: Financial Information Services - The market is recovering, and AI empowerment is driving the continuous release of value in financial information services, with significant profit growth expected for Tonghuashun, projecting a net profit of 2.735 to 3.282 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [3][4] - The increase in profitability is attributed to the company's investment in AI technologies, enhancing product competitiveness and user experience, alongside a rise in demand for financial information services as investor confidence improves [3][4] Group 2: Advertising and Marketing - Focus on the exit from Shuhua, with a significant impairment of 2.153 billion yuan recorded, leading to a net profit reduction of 2.529 billion yuan for 2025, while the company anticipates a net profit increase of 565 million yuan in Q1 2026 [7][10] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, committing to a minimum annual dividend of 80% of net profit, with a projected dividend yield of 4.2% based on current stock prices [11] Group 3: Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank expects a revenue growth of 1.09% and a net profit growth of 12.05% for 2025, with a significant reduction in overdue loans and an increase in non-interest income [15][17] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with overdue loans significantly reduced, indicating improved asset quality [17][19] - China Merchants Bank anticipates a slight revenue growth of 0.01% and a net profit growth of 1.21% for 2025, with a stable deposit growth rate and a steady non-performing loan ratio [20][22] Group 4: Independent Medical Laboratory Industry - Aidi Kang Holdings is a pioneer in the independent medical laboratory (ICL) industry in China, providing standardized third-party testing services through a nationwide network of 34 self-operated laboratories [24][25] - The company has announced the acquisition of a global CRO focused on oncology and immuno-oncology for 204 million USD, enhancing its service capabilities in core disease areas [24][25] Group 5: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices stabilizing after a decline, indicating potential for revenue growth for airlines [27][29] - Domestic travel demand is gradually recovering, with business travel increasing and international travel showing strong growth, suggesting a positive outlook for airline performance [31][32]

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 1月27日，分众传媒在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年四季度，公司拟按权益法 计提数禾的亏损金额约为3.76亿元；同时参考本次交易对价，公司拟计提长期股权投资减值损失约为 21.53亿元，两者合计将减少2025年四季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润约25.29亿元。 ...

2026 年 01 月 27 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 计提减值退出数禾，不改主业发展韧性 ——分众传媒（002027）公司动态事件点评 最近一年走势 事件: 1 月 23 日，公司公告针对上海数禾计提长期股权投资减值 21.53 亿元， 于 2025 年第四季度按权益法计提数禾的亏损 3.76 亿元，导致公司 2025 年净利润减少 25.29 亿元，2026Q1 归母净利润增加 5.65 亿元，公司同 时减资全面退出上海数禾。 投资要点: 公司维持高分红，新潮收购即将完成。 此次减值为非经常性损益，与公司主业无关。公司此前承诺年分红 金额不低于扣非净利润 80%，据此假设下年股息率 4.2%（依据 2026 年 1 月 23 日股价）。此外，1 月 13 日公司公告收购新潮传媒获深 交所受理，收购完成后双方在大小客户资源互补、高低线媒资覆盖、 表现 1M 3M 12M 分众传媒 3.3% -0.1% 20.4% 沪深 300 1.1% 1.0% 22.8% 市场数据 2026/01/26 当前价格（元） 7.42 52 周价格区间（元） 6.21-8.76 总市值（百万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Focus Media regarding the impairment of long-term equity investment in Shuhe Technology highlights significant operational changes and regulatory challenges faced by Shuhe, leading to a substantial net loss of approximately 684 million yuan in Q4 2025, prompting Focus Media to fully exit the investment at a valuation of 791 million yuan [1][4][20]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Investment Details - Focus Media invested 100 million yuan for a 70% stake in Shuhe Technology in March 2016 and later transferred part of its equity for 120 million yuan in November 2017 [3]. - The impairment assessment revealed a 73.45% reduction in the recoverable amount of Shuhe's assets, dropping to 791 million yuan from a book value of 2.944 billion yuan, resulting in a total impairment of 2.153 billion yuan [5]. - Shuhe Technology had maintained profitability until Q4 2025, with no impairment signs reported from 2019 to Q3 2025, indicating a sudden and severe decline in performance [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Business Model Changes - The regulatory landscape, particularly the new lending regulations from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, has imposed stricter requirements on internet lending, adversely affecting Shuhe's core operations [5][20]. - Shuhe Technology's business model has faced challenges, as it failed to demonstrate long-term compliance in the lending market, leading to a loss of investor confidence [2][20]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for Focus Media - Focus Media's decision to exit the investment in Shuhe is seen as a strategic move to optimize its asset structure and mitigate future uncertainties stemming from Shuhe's operational challenges [19][20]. - The long-term support provided by Focus Media, including financial backing and brand credibility, was crucial for Shuhe's initial growth, but the recent developments indicate a shift in Focus Media's investment strategy towards a more cautious approach [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the allocation of public funds to media sector heavyweights, with a total market value of 40.569 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, down 31.70% from Q3 2025 [6][10]. - The gaming sector continues to see increased allocation, with a market value of 30.206 billion yuan, representing 74.46% of the total media sector allocation, marking a 1.14 percentage point increase [11][15]. - The report notes a concentration of investments in top gaming companies, with eight out of the top ten heavyweights being gaming firms, reflecting a strong institutional focus on this segment [20][21]. Summary by Sections Heavyweight Stock Allocation - The allocation of public funds to media heavyweight stocks has decreased, with a total market value of 40.569 billion yuan, down 18.825 billion yuan from Q3 2025, resulting in a 31.70% decline [6][10]. - The allocation ratio for media heavyweights is approximately 1.22%, down 0.56 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][11]. Gaming Sector Performance - The gaming sector's market value stands at 30.206 billion yuan, accounting for 74.46% of the total media sector allocation, with a 40.09% overweight ratio, the highest recorded [11][15]. - The top three sectors by market value are gaming, advertising, and film exhibition, with gaming showing the most significant allocation increase [11][15]. Individual Company Insights - The top ten media heavyweights include companies like Giant Network, Century Huatong, and Kaineng Network, with gaming companies dominating the list [20][23]. - Notable changes in the top ten include Mango Super Media dropping out and Kunlun Wanwei entering the list [20][21]. Hong Kong Stock Preferences - In the Hong Kong market, Tencent Holdings remains the largest heavyweight with a market value of 94.525 billion yuan, despite a decrease of 12.287 billion yuan [33][34]. - Meituan and Damai Entertainment have shown significant increases in both market value and the number of funds holding their stocks [33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth segments such as AI applications and gaming, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and strong market demand [35][36]. - Recommended companies for investment include 37 Interactive Entertainment, Perfect World, Kaineng Network, and others [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the allocation of public funds to media sector heavyweights, with a total market value of 40.569 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, down 31.70% from Q3 2025 [6][10]. - The gaming sector continues to see increased allocation, with a market value of 30.206 billion yuan, representing 74.46% of the total media sector allocation, marking a 1.14 percentage point increase [11][15]. - The report notes a concentration of investment in top gaming companies, with eight out of the top ten heavyweights being gaming firms, reflecting a high level of institutional interest [20][21]. Summary by Sections Heavyweight Stock Allocation - The allocation of public funds to media heavyweights has decreased, with a total market value of 40.569 billion yuan, down 188.25 billion yuan from Q3 2025, resulting in a 31.70% decline [6][10]. - The allocation ratio for the media sector is approximately 1.22%, down 0.56 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][11]. Gaming Sector Performance - The gaming sector's market value is 30.206 billion yuan, accounting for 74.46% of the total media allocation, with a 40.09% over-allocation ratio, the highest recorded [11][15]. - The top three heavyweights in the media sector are gaming, advertising, and film exhibition, with the gaming sector showing the most significant over-allocation [11][15]. Individual Company Focus - The top ten heavyweights in the media sector include major gaming companies such as Giant Network, Century Huatong, and Kaineng Network, with a notable shift in rankings from Q3 2025 [20][23]. - The report indicates a divergence in individual stock allocations, with some previously high-performing companies seeing reduced allocations, possibly due to profit-taking [35][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth segments such as AI applications and gaming, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and upcoming product launches in 2026 [35][36]. - Recommended companies for investment include 37 Interactive Entertainment, Perfect World, Kaineng Network, and others [35][36].

东吴证券研报指出，分众传媒出售数禾资产，计提减值损失。由于分众传媒的联营公司数禾在2025Q4 因金融监管政策影响所出现亏损，这将对分众传媒的业绩产生影响，且分众传媒出售因数禾股份受监管 影响，其退出价值低于其账面价值并计提减值损失约21.53亿元，未来的投资收益也将受出售资产的影 响而有所下调，因此将2025-2027年的EPS预测由0.39/0.49/0.54元调整为0.21/0.46/0.51元。2025-2027年对 应当前PE分别为35.45/16.29/14.73倍，由于公司主业仍然保持稳健的增长，且计提减值损失并不会影响 其未来高股息分红的策略，2026-2027年的估值仍然具备安全边际，因此维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongwu Securities has given a "buy" rating to Focus Media (002027.SZ) based on several factors [1] - The company has sold its Shuhe assets and recognized impairment losses [1] - Shuhe has incurred losses due to the impact of financial asset management, leading the company to choose to exit the project [1] - Focus Media has profited significantly from the Shuhe project, which may affect future investment returns [1]