研究所： 2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 方博云 S0350521120002 fangby@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业绩稳健增长，收购新潮优化竞争格局 ——分众传媒（002027）2024 年&2025Q1 业绩点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 分众传媒 | 0.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | | 沪深 300 | -3.6% | -1.1% | 4.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/29 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 7.07 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 5.22-7.78 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 102,106.35 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 102,106.35 | | 总股本（万股） | | 1,444,219.97 ...

事件：公司发布24 年年报和25 年一季报。（1）收入端，24 年实现营业收入122.62 亿元，同比增长 3%。单季度看，24Q4 实现营收30.01 亿元，同比下滑7%；25Q1 实现营收28.58 亿元，同比增长5%。 （2）利润端，24年归母净利润51.55 亿元，同比增长7%，扣非归母净利润46.68 亿元，同比增长7%。 单季度看，24Q4 归母净利润11.87 亿元，同比下滑3%，扣非归母净利润11.27 亿元，同比增长1%； 25Q1 归母净利润11.35 亿元，同比增长9%，扣非归母净利润9.88 亿元，同比增长5%。 整体来看，公司24Q4 业绩相对弱于预期，25Q1 业绩基本符合预期。具体来看： （1）收入端，Q4 投放需求相对较弱，快消广告主保持良好韧性，影院广告下滑更大：Q4 营收端出现 负增长，我们认为，总体上是由于整体消费环境和市场预期偏弱，导致双十一等重要活动期间的投放动 能相对不足。 24H2，分业务来看，楼宇媒体收入60.44 亿元，同增1%，影院媒体收入2.35 亿元，同降40%，我们认为 主要由于24H2 国内电影票房疲软对广告主需求的抑制； 分广告主来看，日用消费品广 ...

• 分众传媒通过收购新潮传媒，旨在提升行业效率和扩大受众覆盖，预计覆 盖中国 4.7 亿至 5 亿中等以上收入人群，实现 80%的主流消费者触达，增 强品牌影响力和建立品牌共识。 • 分众传媒结合自身数字化精准分发优势及新潮传媒在小企业程序化购买方 面的探索，整合天猫、京东和抖音三大系统数据，实现更精准的媒体分发 和效果验证，提升广告投放 ROI。 • 2025 年营销趋势强调消费心智占领，电梯广告通过高频触达和低干扰， 帮助品牌深入目标消费者认知，降低决策成本，与互联网广告追求即时成 交形成差异化。 • 宏观环境存在不确定性，快消品和化妆品赛道对分众传媒存在机会。化妆 品公司正转向传统媒体，以应对流量疲劳带来的挑战，大型互联网公司在 云业务和 AI 领域的投入也带来收益。 • 分众传媒通过日常营销降本增效、增量营销引爆新品和品效协同缩短品牌 广告到效果出现的时间，提升广告投放 ROI，例如与秒针系统合作优化电 视与 OTV 组合。 分众传媒 20250429 摘要 Q&A 2025 年各行业广告主的投放意愿如何？ 2025 年一季度广告主的投放意愿呈现出一定的波动。1 月份由于春节期间整体 需求较好，业务表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 8 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, benefiting from the recovery of the advertising market, with revenue growth in both 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, to capture the growing demand from Chinese advertisers [2]. - The acquisition of New Wave Media for 8.3 billion yuan is expected to optimize the competitive landscape in the industry, although it will test the integration capabilities of the company in the short term [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.262 billion yuan (yoy +3.01%) and a net profit of 5.155 billion yuan (yoy +6.8%) [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.858 billion yuan (yoy +4.7%) and a net profit of 1.135 billion yuan (yoy +9.14%) [1]. - The proposed dividend for 2024 is 3.322 billion yuan, resulting in a payout ratio of 64.43% [1]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.058 billion yuan, 13.449 billion yuan, and 14.122 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.715 billion yuan, 5.800 billion yuan, and 6.118 billion yuan [3][10]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.40 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively [3][10]. Market Position - The company has a competitive edge with a high gross margin of 66.27% in 2024, supported by strong cost control measures [1]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 99.22 billion yuan, with a current share price of 6.87 yuan [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company, Focus Media (分众传媒), reported a revenue of 12.262 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.155 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year [3][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.858 billion yuan, a 4.70% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.135 billion yuan, growing by 9.14% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a boost in consumer spending, with fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) revenue increasing by 13.40%, accounting for 61.90% of total revenue [3][5]. - The acquisition of New潮传媒 is anticipated to improve competitive dynamics and enhance bargaining power with upstream property owners [3][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 estimates revenues of 12.92 billion yuan, 13.60 billion yuan, and 14.34 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 5.530 billion yuan, 6.057 billion yuan, and 6.598 billion yuan [5][7]. - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 18.5, 16.9, and 15.5 for the years 2025-2027 [5][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.36 yuan in 2024 to 0.46 yuan in 2027 [7][14]. Acquisition Details - The estimated price for acquiring 100% of New潮传媒 is 8.3 billion yuan, primarily paid through shares at a price of 5.68 yuan per share [4][5]. - New潮传媒 operates approximately 740,000 smart screens across about 200 cities, with revenues of 1.940 billion yuan in 2022, 1.932 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.497 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a narrowing loss trend [4][5].

Group 1: Advertising Market Overview - In 2024, the domestic advertising market increased by 1.6% year-on-year, maintaining reasonable fluctuations despite a slowdown in growth compared to the previous year [3] - The outdoor advertising market in China reached approximately 85.22 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 3.86% [3] - The market size of outdoor video advertising in 2024 was approximately 48.32 billion RMB, accounting for about 56.7% of the overall outdoor advertising market [3] - In Q1 2025, the domestic advertising market saw a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, with January showing a growth of 3.5% and February experiencing a drop of 6.7% due to the Spring Festival [4] Group 2: Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12,262.10 million RMB, a 3.01% increase from the previous year [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5,155.39 million RMB, up 6.80% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2,857.74 million RMB, a 4.70% increase compared to the same period last year [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 1,135.17 million RMB, reflecting a 9.14% year-on-year growth [6] Group 3: Client Structure and Industry Trends - The largest client sector for the company in 2024 was daily consumer goods, contributing 58.76% of revenue from building media [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its client base in cosmetics, internet, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and emerging brands [7] - In 2024, revenue from daily consumer goods clients in building media grew by 14.63%, significantly outpacing overall revenue growth [8] Group 4: Strategic Insights and Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and resource allocation through acquisitions, such as the acquisition of New潮传媒 [10] - The company plans to continue its dual strategy of deepening domestic operations while expanding globally, targeting growth in overseas markets [13] - The company is committed to leveraging AI technology to improve client services and operational efficiency [14] - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is approximately 4.766 billion RMB, representing about 92.45% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [15]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05% on April 29, with 19 sectors experiencing gains, led by the beauty and personal care sector at 2.60% and machinery equipment at 1.44% [1] - The media industry ranked third in terms of daily gains [1] - The utilities and comprehensive sectors had the largest declines, at 1.78% and 0.97% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 1.259 billion yuan, with 11 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The machinery equipment sector led with a net inflow of 2.502 billion yuan, followed by the basic chemical industry with a net inflow of 615 million yuan [1] - The utilities sector had the highest net outflow, totaling 2.127 billion yuan, followed by the oil and petrochemical sector with a net outflow of 551 million yuan [1] Media Industry Performance - The media industry rose by 1.27% with a net capital inflow of 257,800 yuan, comprising 130 stocks, of which 106 rose and 22 fell [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Focus Media with 124 million yuan, ST Huaton with 106 million yuan, and Tom Cat with 49.15 million yuan [2] - The media industry also saw significant net outflows, with Tianyu Shuke leading at 158.19 million yuan, followed by Zhangyue Technology and Wanda Film with outflows of 77.71 million yuan and 59.43 million yuan respectively [4]

分众传媒信息技术股份有限公司市值管理制度 分众传媒信息技术股份有限公司 市值管理制度 （2025 年 4 月） 第一章 总则 第一条 分众传媒信息技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）为加强市值 管理工作，规范公司市值管理行为，维护公司及广大投资者合法权益，根据《中 华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》《国务院关于加强监管防范风 险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》《上市公司监管指引第10号——市值管 理》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引 第1号——主板上市公司规范运作》等有关法律、行政法规、部门规章及公司章 程等相关规定，结合公司实际情况，制定本制度。 第二条 本制度所称市值管理，是指公司以提高公司质量为基础，为提升公 司投资价值和股东回报能力而实施的战略管理行为。 应当及时关注资本市场及公司市值动态，结合影响公司市值的关键因素及指标， 常态化主动开展市值管理工作。 （五）诚实守信原则：公司在市值管理活动中应当注重诚信、坚守底线、担 当责任，营造健康良好的市场生态。 第二章 市值管理的目的与基本原则 第三条 市值管理的目的主要是通过完善公司治理、规范经营管理、提升公 ...

分众传媒信息技术股份有限公司 二、独立董事年度履职概况 （一）出席董事会和股东大会的情况 2024 年，本人积极参加了公司召开的董事会及股东大会，参与董事会决策 并对所议事项发表明确意见，认真履行了独立董事的义务。公司董事会、股东大 会的召集召开符合法定程序，重大经营决策事项和其他重大事项均履行了相关程 序，合法有效。 2024 年，公司共召开了 5 次董事会，本人应出席 5 次，实际出席 5 次，其 中现场方式出席会议 0 次，通讯方式出席会议 5 次，没有委托或缺席情况。对上 述董事会审议的各项议案，本人均投了赞成票，没有出现反对、弃权的情形。 独立董事 2024 年度述职报告 根据《公司法》《证券法》《上市公司治理准则》《上市公司独立董事管理办 法》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等相关法律法规、规范性文件和《公司章 程》《公司独立董事工作制度》的规定和要求，本人作为分众传媒信息技术股份 有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的第八届董事会独立董事，在 2024 年度日常工作 及重要决策中忠实、勤勉地履行职责，充分发挥了独立董事作用，促进董事会规 范运作，提升公司治理水平，切实维护了公司和全体股东特别是中小股东的合 ...

根据《公司法》《证券法》《上市公司治理准则》《上市公司独立董事管理办 法》《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等相关法律法规、规范性文件和《公司章 程》《公司独立董事工作制度》的规定和要求，本人作为分众传媒信息技术股份 有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的第八届董事会独立董事，在 2024 年度日常工作 及重要决策中忠实、勤勉地履行职责，充分发挥了独立董事作用，促进董事会规 范运作，提升公司治理水平，切实维护了公司和全体股东特别是中小股东的合法 权益。 分众传媒信息技术股份有限公司 独立董事 2024 年度述职报告 现将本人 2024 年度履职情况报告如下： 一、独立董事的基本情况 本人张光华，现任公司独立董事。中国国籍，出生于 1957 年 3 月，西南财 经大学政治经济学专业博士。现任北京银行股份有限公司（SH.601169）独立董 事，社会价值投资联盟（深圳）主席，中国国际海运集装箱（集团）股份有限公 司（SZ.000039）独立董事，中邮邮惠万家银行有限责任公司独立董事，盟浪可 持续数字科技（深圳）有限责任公司监事；曾工作于国家外汇管理局、中国人民 银行海南省分行，历任广东发展银行行长、党委副书记，招商银行党委副 ...