分析师：牟国洪 登记编码：S0730513030002 锂电池 mough@ccnew.com 021-50586980 销量略增，板块持续关注 ——锂电池行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 联系人：李智 马嵚琦 ⚫ 1 月锂电池板块指数走势强于沪深 300 指数。2026 年 1 月，锂电 池指数上涨 3.31%，新能源汽车指数上涨 0.44%，而同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.65%，锂电池指数走势强于沪深 300 指数。 风险提示：行业政策执行力度不及预期；细分领域价格大幅波动；新 能源汽车销量不及预期；行业竞争加剧；系统风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 28页 锂电池相对沪深 300 指数表现 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 12 日 资料来源：中原证券研究所，Wind 相关报告 《锂电池行业专题研究：新型储能产业链之河 南概况（三）》 2026-01-22 《锂电池行业月报：产业链价格总体上涨，板 块可关注》 2026-01-19 《锂电池行业月报：月度占比再创新高，板块 持续关注》 2025-12-15 投 ...

分析师：牟国洪 登记编码：S0730513030002 锂电池 mough@ccnew.com 021-50586980 销量略增，板块持续关注 ——锂电池行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 12 日 资料来源：中原证券研究所，Wind 相关报告 《锂电池行业专题研究：新型储能产业链之河 南概况（三）》 2026-01-22 《锂电池行业月报：产业链价格总体上涨，板 块可关注》 2026-01-19 《锂电池行业月报：月度占比再创新高，板块 持续关注》 2025-12-15 联系人：李智 马嵚琦 ⚫ 1 月锂电池板块指数走势强于沪深 300 指数。2026 年 1 月，锂电 池指数上涨 3.31%，新能源汽车指数上涨 0.44%，而同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.65%，锂电池指数走势强于沪深 300 指数。 风险提示：行业政策执行力度不及预期；细分领域价格大幅波动；新 能源汽车销量不及预期；行业竞争加剧；系统风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 28页 锂电池相对沪深 300 指数表现 投 ...

根据高工产业研究院（GGII）不完全统计，2025年我国锂电 产业链全环节公开投资项目（含锂电池及主要材料、固态电 池、钠电池）超282个，总投资额超8200亿元，同比增长超 74%。 作者：潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 锂电池厂商正在加速扩厂。 2月10日晚间，宁德时代（300750.SZ）发布公告，宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司2026年面 向专业投资者公开发行科技创新公司债券（第一期）发行规模不超过50亿元（含50亿元）。本期 公司债券募集资金扣除发行费用后主要用于项目建设、补充营运资金、偿还有息负债等符合法律法 规及监管规定的用途。 上周五，国轩高科（002074.SZ）在深交所发布《2026 年度向特定对象发行A股股票预案》（下 称"预案"），拟募资50亿元，总投资约130亿元投建60GWh锂电池产能。 国轩高科在2025年上半年位居国内动力锂电池出货量为约34GWh，位居第四位，储能锂电池出 货量约为25GWh，位居第七位。 从2025年下半年开始，宁德时代、远景动力、中创新航、亿纬锂能、国轩高科等锂电池头部厂商 纷纷计划扩产。 根据高工产业研究院（GGII）不完全统计，2025年我国锂电产业链全环节公 ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a clear upward trend due to supply-side clearing and demand-side support, with expectations of profitability recovery in 2026 as inefficient companies exit the market and leading firms enhance efficiency through technological upgrades [1][14] - In 2025, China's photovoltaic industry saw a significant increase in installed capacity, reaching 315.07 GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.67%, despite a slowdown in the second half of the year [14][16] - The introduction of policies aimed at preventing "involution" in the industry has led to a recovery in prices, with polysilicon prices rising over 50% from June to November 2025, indicating a shift towards a more rational pricing environment [22][29] Group 2: Wind Power Industry - The wind power industry is expected to benefit from a favorable supply-demand structure, with significant growth anticipated in offshore wind projects and exports, particularly in 2025 [1][3] - The domestic wind power market is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with offshore wind becoming a key focus area, supported by increasing demand for domestic and international markets [1][3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers in the wind turbine sector and companies involved in high-barrier components such as submarine cables, which are expected to see increased demand [3][3] Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector in China is projected to achieve sales of 16.49 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, driven by stable market demand and improved product structures [2][3] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in profitability as supply-side chaos is effectively managed, with significant price increases in key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and vinyl carbonate [2][3] - The transition to a high-quality development phase is expected in 2026, supported by technological innovations and enhanced supply chain capabilities [2][3] Group 4: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability as inefficient production capacity is eliminated, with key materials seeing price increases and demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage continuing to rise [8][8] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the battery and structural components sectors, which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [8][8] - The commercialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with several companies making significant progress in this area [8][8]

Core Insights - The strategic partnership between Guoxuan High-Tech and BASF aims to develop next-generation solid-state battery technology, focusing on high-performance materials through collaborative innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Partnership Details - Guoxuan High-Tech and BASF signed a memorandum in Hefei, Anhui, to jointly develop solid-state battery technology, emphasizing the co-development of core materials [1]. - The collaboration will leverage Guoxuan's capabilities in solid-state battery industrialization and BASF's expertise in advanced materials [1][2]. - The partnership aims to address key technical bottlenecks in the commercialization of solid-state batteries through joint design and targeted material development [1][2]. Group 2: Technological and Market Implications - Guoxuan has made progress with its Jinshi all-solid-state battery, achieving a 90% yield rate and an energy density of 300 Wh/kg on its pilot line [1]. - The collaboration reflects a competitive landscape in solid-state battery technology, with Guoxuan adopting a multi-faceted strategy that includes both all-solid-state and hybrid solid-liquid battery solutions [2]. - The partnership signifies a shift for Chinese battery companies from manufacturing leadership to innovation in materials and systems, aiming to create a unique technological moat [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the accelerated expansion of lithium battery manufacturers, with major companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech planning significant investments to increase production capacity [2][5][6] - CATL announced a public issuance of corporate bonds to raise up to 5 billion yuan for project construction and operational funding [2] - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to raise 5 billion yuan to invest approximately 13 billion yuan in building 60GWh lithium battery capacity, positioning itself as a key player in the market [2][8] Group 2 - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a surge in investment, with over 282 projects planned in China, totaling more than 820 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 74% [2] - The supply of lithium battery cells is currently tight, with many manufacturers having initiated expansion plans that will come online in the latter half of 2025 [3][7] - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with cumulative sales projected to reach 1,700.5GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [7] Group 3 - The expansion of production capacity is primarily driven by the demand in the terminal market, especially in the energy storage sector, leading to a temporary supply-demand imbalance [7] - Guoxuan High-Tech's third-generation battery cells, which utilize a manganese iron phosphate chemical system, are expected to enhance competitiveness by reducing costs by 10%-15% [8] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards larger cell formats, with plans to transition from 300Ah to 587Ah cells, which may improve cost efficiency but also raise safety concerns [10] Group 4 - Despite the optimistic outlook, companies in the energy storage sector are cautious about expanding their battery production capacity due to market dynamics and competition [11][13] - The current market conditions have led to a situation where many companies are prioritizing international orders over domestic demand, creating pressure on local delivery capabilities [11][12] - Companies like Sungrow Power Supply are still evaluating the feasibility of entering battery cell production, indicating a cautious approach to future investments [14]

Core Viewpoint - Guoxuan High-Tech plans to raise up to 5 billion yuan for the expansion of lithium battery production capacity and to supplement working capital, amidst significant existing debt and cash flow challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Plans - The company aims to raise no more than 5 billion yuan, with allocations of 2 billion yuan for a 20GWh power battery project, 1 billion yuan for a 20GWh new energy battery base, 1 billion yuan for a new lithium-ion battery manufacturing base, and the remaining 1 billion yuan for working capital [3]. - The total investment for the new capacity projects is over 14 billion yuan, combined with a previously announced 8 billion yuan expansion, bringing the total to 22 billion yuan [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Health and Debt Situation - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had short-term borrowings of nearly 28 billion yuan and long-term borrowings exceeding 20 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio rising to 71.72% [5]. - The company's cash flow issues are highlighted by a significant increase in construction in progress, which rose from 14.8 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 21.0 billion yuan, a 42.16% increase [5]. Group 3: Revenue and Profitability Concerns - The company expects a net profit of 2.5 to 3 billion yuan for 2025, with approximately 1.7 billion yuan derived from fair value changes related to the listing of Chery Automobile [8]. - Government subsidies and other income have exceeded net profit in recent years, indicating reliance on non-operational income sources [8]. Group 4: Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow Issues - The company's cash collection ratio is significantly lower than that of leading battery manufacturers, ranging between 60% and 70% [9]. - Accounts receivable and their turnover days have been increasing, with turnover days rising from 122 days in 2022 to 152 days in 2024, suggesting a resurgence of previous cash collection issues [11].

Group 1: Production Data - In January 2026, the total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 16.7% but a year-on-year increase of 55.9% [1][6]. - The production of ternary batteries was 31.3 GWh, accounting for 18.6% of total production, with a month-on-month decrease of 23.1% and a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [13]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 136.7 GWh, making up 81.3% of total production, with a month-on-month decrease of 14.8% and a year-on-year increase of 57.1% [13]. Group 2: Sales Data - In January 2026, the total sales of power and energy storage batteries in China reached 148.8 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 25.4% but a year-on-year increase of 85.1% [2][14]. - Power battery sales were 102.7 GWh, accounting for 69.0% of total sales, with a month-on-month decrease of 28.6% and a year-on-year increase of 63.2% [2][18]. - Energy storage battery sales were 46.1 GWh, making up 31.0% of total sales, with a month-on-month decrease of 17.0% and a year-on-year increase of 164.0% [2][19]. Group 3: Export Data - In January 2026, the total export of power and energy storage batteries was 24.1 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 26.0% but a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, accounting for 16.2% of total sales [2][22]. - Power battery exports were 17.7 GWh, representing 73.3% of total exports, with a month-on-month decrease of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 59.3% [2][24]. - Energy storage battery exports were 6.4 GWh, accounting for 26.7% of total exports, with a month-on-month decrease of 52.6% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2][26]. Group 4: Installation Data - The domestic installation of power batteries in January 2026 was 42.0 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 57.2% but a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [3][40]. - Ternary battery installations were 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of total installations, with a month-on-month decrease of 48.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [3][44]. - Lithium iron phosphate battery installations were 32.7 GWh, making up 77.7% of total installations, with a month-on-month decrease of 59.1% and a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [3][44]. Group 5: Key Material Demand - In January 2026, the demand for key materials for power and energy storage batteries included 63,000 tons of ternary materials and 342,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate materials [64][65]. - The demand for negative electrode materials was 235,000 tons, while the demand for separators was 3.36 billion square meters [64]. - The demand for electrolyte for ternary batteries was 28,000 tons, and for lithium iron phosphate batteries, it was 205,000 tons [64][65].

Domestic News - Shanghai has opened over 5200 kilometers of autonomous driving testing roads, aiming to expand the application space for intelligent connected vehicles and create a multi-level application scenario layout by 2025 [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a directory revealing the range information of several new energy vehicles, with high-end models approaching a pure electric range of 1000 kilometers, such as the Tengshi Z9 with a maximum range of 1068 kilometers [5][6] - AITO brand has signed a cooperation agreement with Abu Dhabi Motors' subsidiary, Performance Plus Motors, to officially enter the UAE market for sales and after-sales operations [7] - General Motors announced that its localization rate in the Chinese supply chain has exceeded 95%, emphasizing its commitment to strengthening its business in China [8][9] - The China Automotive Technology and Research Center and Changan Automobile Group have established a parts technology company in Chongqing with a registered capital of 100 million yuan [10] - FAW has successfully installed a high-energy density lithium manganese solid-liquid battery, achieving a range of over 1000 kilometers [11] - Guoxuan High-Tech will collaborate with BASF to develop next-generation solid-state battery technology [12] - Loobo and Uber plan to launch fully autonomous taxi services in Dubai in the first quarter of 2026, marking the city's first such service [13] International News - India's automotive export value reached $12.15 billion in FY25, a 10.7% increase from the previous fiscal year, driven by record exports of passenger and two-wheeler vehicles [14] - South Korea's January imports of passenger cars increased by 38% year-on-year, with local car manufacturers also seeing a 10% increase in sales [15] - Waymo has launched fully autonomous taxi services in Nashville, Tennessee, and plans to collaborate with Lyft for expanded service [16] - Audi is accelerating the digitalization of its factories and expanding AI applications, with about 100 use cases under development [17] Commercial Vehicles - FAW Liberation has signed a strategic agreement with a Saudi dealer, marking a significant breakthrough in the Middle East market [18] - The first government-publicly procured unmanned logistics vehicle project has been implemented in Hanzhong, Shaanxi Province [19] - The U.S. International Trade Commission has made a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing duties regarding van-type trailers and their components from Mexico, Canada, and China [20] - Beijing Automotive Group, Tongxingbao, and Huochezhijia have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to promote the large-scale implementation of pre-installed ETC systems in commercial vehicles [21][22]

Group 1 - Chemical ETF rose by 2.10%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.01 percentage points [1] - PTA production cut confirmed by Xin Feng Ming, with 2.5 million tons of PTA capacity being taken offline, indicating a tightening supply which supports the recovery of PTA profit margins [1] - Gotion High-Tech signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with BASF to focus on next-generation solid-state battery technology, with expectations for small-scale production of all-solid-state batteries by CATL in 2027 [1] - Zhejiang Longsheng raised the price of disperse dyes by 2000 yuan/ton, marking a potential turning point in the industry due to supply discipline and cost anchoring [1] Group 2 - The 14th Five-Year Plan will promote carbon peak measures, with restrictions on high-energy-consuming products expected to be implemented, indicating a clearer turning point for the chemical industry [2] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in first-tier cities, which may lead to a gradual recovery in the industry, highlighting investment opportunities in the chemical real estate chain [2] - The CSI sub-industry chemical theme index (000813) rose by 2.32%, with significant gains in stocks such as Xinzhou Bang (up 8.16%) and Tongkun Co. (up 7.82%) [2] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index (000813) accounted for 44.82% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical and Yilong Co. [3]