Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports has triggered a significant market reaction, with lithium carbonate futures surging over 11% to exceed 160,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential new cycle in the lithium market driven by supply disruptions and surging demand from energy storage batteries [1][2][3]. Supply Side - The ban from Zimbabwe is expected to have a short-term impact, with current compliant export capacity limited to 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2026, increasing to 60,000 tons in 2027 [3][5]. - The global lithium supply is projected to be approximately 202,000 tons of LCE in 2026, with demand expected to reach around 201.7 million tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [22]. - The recovery of lithium production in Australia is anticipated to take at least a quarter, with many projects still in the planning stages, which limits immediate supply response to rising prices [8][12]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium is increasingly driven by energy storage, with global shipments of storage batteries expected to reach 900 GWh in 2026, translating to a demand for approximately 540,000 tons of LCE, a 50% year-on-year increase [16][18]. - Despite a temporary slowdown in demand for power batteries due to policy changes, the overall demand for lithium is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with projections of 1.9 million electric vehicles sold in China, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [16][18]. Pricing Dynamics - The current low inventory levels, with social stocks of lithium carbonate dropping to around 10,300 tons, have significantly amplified price elasticity, leading to a market that is trading on "shortage driven by restocking" rather than waiting for supply-demand equilibrium [18][24]. - The pricing logic in the lithium market is shifting from "current period looseness" to "future period tightness," as financial attributes of lithium are becoming more pronounced, with market participants pricing in future scarcity [25][26]. Geopolitical Factors - The emergence of a "Lithium OPEC" in South America, involving Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, aims to regain pricing power over lithium resources, which could further complicate supply dynamics [6][7]. - Geopolitical and policy variables, such as nationalization efforts in Chile and Mexico's strategic designation of lithium, are expected to layer additional pricing options that could influence market dynamics over time [6][7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that lithium carbonate prices could exceed 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term, supported by low inventory, concentrated supply disruptions, and the upcoming demand peak [26]. - The long-term outlook remains uncertain, with differing views on whether prices above 200,000 yuan/ton will be sustainable or if they represent a temporary window before supply increases catch up [26].

Group 1 - The China Securities 1000 ETF (159845) opened down 0.83% at 3.469 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF experienced declines, including Xiangnong Chip Innovation down 1.83%, Dongxin Co. down 1.63%, and Yuanjie Technology down 3.28% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the China Securities 1000 Index return, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 45.08% since its inception on March 18, 2021, and a return of 1.47% over the past month [1]

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货冲高回落，总持仓小增 2957，市场继续交易津巴布韦锂矿禁令，日内 雅化集团、华友钴业以及中矿资源回应，一度缓解市场对该禁令的担忧，多头有 止盈离场。钢联晚盘现货电碳报价涨 10700 至 176000，澳矿涨 90，锂云母涨 155， 三元持平，铁锂涨 2000-2100，产业链涨价潮持续，本周碳酸锂社库较节前去库 2839 吨至 100093 吨。短期随着供应端炒作 ...

中信建投（601066）期货分析师张维鑫表示，受长假期间国际大宗商品价格上涨影响，碳酸锂期价延续 了春节假期前的上涨趋势。此外，3月份以后，现货市场供需格局或进一步偏紧，该预期也支撑了碳酸 锂价格。 春节假期结束后，碳酸锂市场表现强势。2月26日，碳酸锂期货跳空高开，主力合约LC2605盘中最高触 及187700元/吨，涨幅一度超11%，随后涨幅收窄，当日报收173660元/吨，涨幅为3.47%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期价节后持续走强，是基本面和消息面共振的表现。 据华友钴业相关负责人介绍，此次津巴布韦相关政策主要是对违规出口的监管，公司的采矿证是当地矿 业部颁发的，目前还不能确定具体影响有多大。 雅化集团相关负责人也对记者表示，短期内，该政策对其公司业务会有一定影响，不过公司已经提前把 在津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发运出来了，整体影响相对有限。值得关注的是，雅化集团可以继续申请 出口，但需要按照出口许可流程补充相关资料，公司已经着手推进。 "从目前主流企业的反馈看，津巴布韦相关政策影响偏短期，且部分企业已有库存矿规划，预计整体影 响有限。"林嘉旎表示，津巴布韦相关政策主要是为了打击走私及促进锂资源的本土加工业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

2月26日，沪指跌0.01%，深证成指涨0.19%，创业板指跌0.29%。全市场成交额2.56万亿元，超2800股下跌。CPO、PCB、液冷服务器、培育钻石、代糖概念 股涨幅居前；影视院线、房地产、贵金属下跌。 个股方面，豫能控股6连板，法尔胜4连板，澄星股份3连板，华胜天成、圣晖集成等4天2板，通鼎互联、天润工业3天2板，云南锗业、赣能股份等2连板。 | 代码 | 名称 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 涨幅量 | 换手% 几天几板I2 ... | 成交额 | 成交量 涨停分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301175 | 中科环保 | 7.78 | +1.30 | +20.06% | 31.28% 自板涨停 | 14.16 7. | 194.5万 垃圾焚烧+商业 | | 688786 | 悦安新材 | 39.10 | +6.52 | +20.01% | 7.63% 自板张停 | 4.11 Z. | 10.97万 GPU由感+3D | | 300499 | 高澜胶份 | 38.15 | +6.36 | +20.01% | 35.27% 首 ...

Group 1 - Huang Yanming, the director of Dongfang Securities Research Institute, stated that the next investment focus in A-shares will be on mid-cap blue chips, moving away from the previous high-growth tech and high-dividend strategies [1] - The investment focus will be on three main areas: globally priced cyclical goods such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and global shipping; manufacturing sectors related to technology and national strength enhancement, including military industry, robotics, and new energy; and technology sectors related to large model performance realization [1] Group 2 - The International Institute of Finance reported that global debt has surged to a record $348 trillion, increasing by nearly $29 trillion, marking the fastest growth since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Government debt in countries like the United States and the Eurozone exceeds $10 trillion [2] Group 3 - Several lithium mining companies expect Zimbabwe's lithium ore exports to resume within one month after a temporary suspension [3] - Companies like Zhongmin Resources and Yahua Group are preparing to submit supplementary materials for export applications, indicating that the ban is expected to be lifted soon [3] Group 4 - Overseas tech companies are increasingly turning to loans backed by chips, particularly GPUs, to fund their substantial AI investments, with Moody's beginning to rate GPU-backed debt [4] - NAND flash memory prices are rising due to ongoing shortages, prompting major manufacturers like Phison to require advance payments from customers [4] Group 5 - The Chinese smartphone industry is set to experience a comprehensive price increase starting in March 2026, with new models expected to rise by at least 1,000 yuan [5] - Major brands such as OPPO, OnePlus, Vivo, iQOO, Xiaomi, and Honor are likely to raise prices for older models as well, marking a historic trend of simultaneous price hikes across all categories and brands [5] Group 6 - CCD cameras, once common, have seen a resurgence in popularity, with prices for certain models skyrocketing in the second-hand market [6] - Young consumers are driving this trend, primarily for the aesthetic quality of the images produced by these cameras [6] Group 7 - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 32.7 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [7] - The net profit attributable to Baidu was 1.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 5% [7] Group 8 - ByteDance's valuation is reportedly around $550 billion, as investment firm General Atlantic is selling part of its stake [8] - This valuation places ByteDance between Tencent and Alibaba in terms of market capitalization [8] Group 9 - New Hope Liuhe announced a cash investment of 74.87 million yuan to acquire a 70% stake in Luochuan Lingxian Company [9] - The investment will be used for both purchasing shares and increasing capital for the company [9] Group 10 - Aokema plans to acquire a 45% stake in its subsidiary Qingdao Aokema Smart Industry Co., Ltd. for 253 million yuan, aiming for full ownership [10] - The transaction is part of a strategy to consolidate control over its subsidiary [10]

官方数据显示，津巴布韦锂矿资源储量估计达1.26亿吨，位居全球前列，近年来在全球锂矿供应中扮演 着重要角色。2025年，中国从该国进口锂矿石120余万吨，仅次于澳大利亚，是中国锂矿进口第二大 国。华友钴业、中矿资源、盛新锂能、雅化集团、天华新能等企业在津巴布韦已布局锂矿开采、硫酸锂 生产线等。锂矿出口禁令可能对投资当地锂矿的企业造成影响并改变全球锂矿供应格局，在A股市场 上，上述股票应声大跌。 此前一天，津巴布韦矿业部宣布立即暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口（含在途货物），意味着津巴布韦在推 进矿产资源本地化加工方面迈出关键一步。 股票大跌，让投资者坐不住了，急忙追问：津巴布韦政府发布锂矿的禁令，对雅化集团的锂矿出口有影 响吗？ 26日下午收盘后，雅化集团在互动平台火速回应：目前不会对公司正常生产经营造成影响。首先，根据 津巴布韦矿业部公告及沟通，本次禁令主要打击贸易类违规出口，明确只允许拥有采矿权和选矿厂的企 业出口。雅化津巴布韦项目符合上述要求，目前已重新提交出口申请，最快1—2周获批恢复出口。其 次，津巴布韦政府希望中企加快在津巴布韦建设硫酸锂工厂，雅化津巴布韦硫酸锂项目已经启动建设。 最后，雅化津巴布韦前期产 ...

图片来 源：图虫创意 津巴布韦暂停锂精矿和原矿出口。 2月25日，新华财经披露了上述消息，此次暂停令还包括了目前所有在途的矿产。 受该消息影响，2月26日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度大涨12%，触及18.7万元/吨。截至当日收盘，上涨 3.47%，报17.37万元/吨。 现货方面，上海钢联最新数据显示，2月26日，电池级碳酸锂早盘均价报17.31万元/吨，较前一工作日 上涨8650元。 根据修订后的其他矿产出口要求，只有持有有效采矿权和已获批选矿厂的矿业公司才被授权出口。代理 商和第三方贸易商无权代表采矿权持有人出口矿产。 出口许可证申请必须包括相关省级矿业办公室出具的建议书，详细说明选矿能力和合规状况，以及每批 货物的矿物成分申报。 津巴布韦政府表示，此举旨在加强矿产问责制，促进选矿增值，并最大限度地提高津巴布韦境内的价值 留存。 津巴布韦在2月17日就曾宣布，为遏制矿物出口中的不当行为和矿物流失，决定调整所有矿物及选矿产 成品的出口流程和框架，并建立有效框架。 在此期间，由于相关政府部门调整其流程，采矿业在出口许可证的处理和签发方面可能遇到暂时性延 误。为此，所有申请新出口许可证和续签现有出口许可证者，应至少 ...

华友钴业相关负责人表示，此次津巴布韦的"出口禁令"主要是对违规出口的监管，公司的采矿证是当地 矿业部颁发的，目前尚不确定具体影响程度。 雅化集团相关负责人表示："公司已提前把津巴布韦生产的锂精矿全部发运出来。最近一段时间，当 地'暂停出口'对公司的生产端不会造成影响。" 该负责人进一步表示："根据文件看，未在当地取得采矿证及选矿资质的贸易商与代理商，已不具备出 口资质。但雅化集团可以继续申请出口，只需要在出口许可流程上补充相关资料，公司已着手推进相关 工作。" 2月26日，碳酸锂期货主力合约一度涨超11%。同时，A股锂矿板块高开。消息面上，当地时间2月25 日，津巴布韦矿业部发文称，已暂停所有锂原矿和锂精矿的出口，即刻生效。此次暂停出口包括所有目 前正在运输途中的矿产，暂无明确恢复出口的时间表。 中国证券报记者梳理获悉，上市公司盛新锂能、华友钴业、中矿资源、天华新能、雅化集团均在津巴布 韦有锂矿等布局。 作为新兴的锂资源大国，津巴布韦"出口禁令"对于中国锂的供应及价格走势有何影响？中国证券报记者 进行了多方采访。 上市公司回应 此次津巴布韦的新政策对于在当地布局的A股上市公司有哪些影响？ 2月26日，中矿资源 ...