纺织服饰/服装家纺 森马服饰（002563.SZ） 2025Q1 终端零售稳步增长，短期费用扰动利润增速 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 5.62 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 7.48/4.34 | | 总市值(亿元) | 151.41 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 123.74 | | 总股本(亿股) | 26.94 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.02 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.5 | 信 息 更 新 报 告 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 森马服饰 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年分红比例提升，库存结构 改善奠定增长基础—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.2 《2022 年业绩承压，期待轻装上阵 &开店下业绩修复—公司信息更新 报告》-2023.4.6 ——公司信息更新报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 4 | 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师 ...

森马服饰（002563.SZ） 2025Q1 终端零售稳步增长，短期费用扰动利润增速 2025 年 05 月 01 日 纺织服饰/服装家纺 投资评级：买入（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 森马服饰 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年分红比例提升，库存结构 改善奠定增长基础—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.2 《2022 年业绩承压，期待轻装上阵 &开店下业绩修复—公司信息更新 报告》-2023.4.6 ——公司信息更新报告 | 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） | | | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn zhoujiale@kysec.cn zhangshuangning@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号：S0790520030002 证书编号：S0790522030002 证书编号：S0790524070006 | | |  2025Q1 业绩短期承压，看好门店提质增效修复业绩表现，维持"买入"评级 | | | 2025Q1 公司实现营收 30.8 亿元（同比-1.9%） ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Semir Fashion was established in 2002, focusing on casual and children's clothing, with major brands including Semir for adults and Balabala for children [8] - Semir brand, founded in 1996, emphasizes comfort and quality, while Balabala, established in 2002, targets children aged 0-14, positioning itself for middle-income families [8] - Semir has become a leading domestic casual wear brand, while Balabala holds a dominant market share in children's clothing [8] Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 3.08 billion, a decrease of 1.93% from CNY 3.14 billion in the same period last year [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 214.37 million, down 38.12% from CNY 346.44 million year-on-year [9] - The net cash flow from operating activities fell by 81.71% to CNY 152.53 million, primarily due to increased payments for goods [10] Group 3: Inventory and Assets - As of March 31, 2025, inventory stood at CNY 3.35 billion, a decrease of CNY 134 million from the beginning of the period, but an increase of CNY 760 million compared to the same time last year [10] - The proportion of inventory items with a one-year turnover increased from 55% to 72%, indicating improved inventory health [10] - Monetary assets remained stable at CNY 8.65 billion, ensuring sufficient liquidity for ongoing operations [10] Group 4: Profitability and Expenses - The gross profit margin for the period was 47%, slightly up by 0.37 percentage points compared to the previous year [10] - Sales expenses increased by CNY 111 million, primarily due to higher advertising and service costs [11] - Management expenses rose by CNY 20 million, while financial expenses decreased by CNY 39 million [10] Group 5: Store Operations - During the reporting period, the company opened 172 stores and closed 229, resulting in a total of 8,268 stores as of March 31, 2025 [11] - The breakdown includes 2,779 adult clothing stores and 5,489 children's clothing stores, with 960 direct-operated, 74 joint-operated, and 7,234 franchised stores [11] Group 6: Retail Performance - In Q1, overall retail sales, both online and offline, showed single-digit growth year-on-year [12] - Sales continued to improve in April, maintaining a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate across the entire retail system [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected PE of 14 times for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 210 million yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2% and 38% respectively [1]. - The retail channel is expected to show steady growth, with a cautious accounting approach leading to better performance in retail sales compared to revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store structure, with a net increase of 299 direct stores and 96 franchise stores expected in 2024 [2]. - The children's clothing segment is anticipated to grow healthily, while the adult casual wear segment is expected to decline due to industry conditions [3]. - Inventory levels increased by 29.4% year-on-year to 3.35 billion yuan, with a healthy inventory turnover structure [4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [5]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.46 yuan per share for 2025 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.2% in 2025, increasing to 12.2% by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 14.63 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of RMB 1.14 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations due to effective channel adjustments [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue of RMB 3.08 billion, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 210 million, down 38.1% year-on-year. The long-term value is expected to improve after the short-term performance pressure is released [1][2]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and enhancing store efficiency, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for medium to long-term development [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - Online revenue for 2024 was RMB 6.67 billion, growing 7.24% year-on-year, while offline revenue from direct sales and franchises was RMB 1.55 billion (up 12.6%) and RMB 6.07 billion (up 5.1%), respectively [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 43.8%, primarily due to increased sales and financial expense ratios from channel layout adjustments [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 6.9% [3]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - By the end of 2024, the company's inventory was RMB 3.481 billion, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days rising to 188 days in Q1 2025, an increase of 45 days year-on-year [4]. - Accounts receivable turnover days increased to 41 days in Q1 2025, indicating a slight short-term pressure on operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 1.29 billion and RMB 1.48 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.74 billion [5]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 15.7 for 2025, with a target price of RMB 7.50, reflecting its position as a leading brand in children's and leisure apparel despite short-term operational pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating pressure on performance and a significant drop in net profit margin compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 3.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.93% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 214 million yuan, down 38.12% year-on-year - Basic earnings per share were 0.08 yuan [1] - Gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 47.00% and 6.92%, respectively, with changes of +0.37 and -4.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The selling and administrative expense ratio increased to 34.16%, up 5.90 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the decline in net margin [2] - Inventory turnover days increased to 188.32 days, up 45.08 days year-on-year [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities was 153 million yuan, a decrease of 81.71% year-on-year [2] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading domestic channels and enhancing overseas business models, with significant progress in store openings and renovations for its core brands, Semir and Balabala [2][3] - In 2024, over 500 new Semir image stores and Balabala store renovations were completed [2] - The company is implementing a multi-channel strategy for overseas markets, including direct sales, e-commerce, and partnerships with agents, successfully entering 15 countries and regions by the end of 2024 [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue improving retail capabilities and product circulation efficiency while expanding its overseas business footprint [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.46, 0.51, and 0.57 yuan, with a 2025 PE valuation of 13.72 times, which is below the average of comparable companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.50 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 14.63 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of 1.14 billion RMB, up 1.4% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations due to effective channel adjustments [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 3.08 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million RMB, down 38.1% year-on-year, indicating short-term performance pressure but long-term value potential remains optimistic [1][5]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and enhancing store efficiency, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for long-term development [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 43.8%, primarily due to increased sales and financial expense ratios from channel layout adjustments [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 dropped by 4.9 percentage points to 6.9% [3]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - As of the end of 2024, the company's inventory was 3.481 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with inventory turnover days increasing to 188 days in Q1 2025, up 45 days year-on-year [4]. - Accounts receivable turnover days also increased, indicating a slight short-term pressure on operational efficiency [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.29 billion RMB for 2025 and 1.48 billion RMB for 2026, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of 1.74 billion RMB [5][6]. - The report suggests a PE ratio of 15.7 for 2025, reflecting the company's position as a leading brand in children's clothing and casual wear despite short-term operational pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1Q25 performance fell short of expectations, primarily due to higher-than-expected expense inputs, despite stable revenue growth driven by franchise shipments and retail recovery [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - 1Q25 revenue was 3.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 214 million yuan, down 38.1% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 194 million yuan, a decline of 42.7% year-on-year - The revenue performance was weaker than the overall terminal flow performance, partly due to the early timing of the 2025 Spring Festival, which led to some shipments being advanced to 4Q24 [1][2]. Cost Structure - Gross margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.0%, attributed to a higher proportion of direct sales channels - Selling expense ratio rose by 4.1 percentage points to 28.6%, mainly due to increased advertising and marketing expenses, as well as higher depreciation and amortization costs from an increased number of stores - Management expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 5.1%, while financial expense ratio rose by 1.2 percentage points to -0.8%, mainly due to reduced interest income - Overall, net profit margin decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 7.0% [2]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of 1Q25, inventory increased by 29.4% to 3.347 billion yuan, with the proportion of goods within one year rising from 55% to 72% - Inventory turnover days increased by 45.1 days to 188.3 days - Accounts receivable rose by 19.2% to 1.217 billion yuan, with turnover days increasing by 7.3 days to 41.1 days - Operating cash flow net amount decreased by 81.7% year-on-year to 153 million yuan, primarily due to increased payments for goods [2]. Development Trends - The company is expected to maintain its aggressive store expansion strategy initiated in 2024, while dynamically adjusting based on the macroeconomic environment - The company will further evaluate the cost-to-benefit ratio of its expenditures, aiming to align expense growth more closely with revenue growth while controlling total annual expense inputs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at 1.197 billion yuan and 1.297 billion yuan, respectively - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14.3x for 2025 and 13.2x for 2026 - The rating of outperforming the industry and the target price of 7.13 yuan remain unchanged, with the target price corresponding to a P/E of 16.1x and 14.8x for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% from the current price [4].

Financial Performance - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was ¥3,078,754,281.52, a decrease of 1.93% compared to ¥3,139,311,437.98 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥214,367,053.13, down 38.12% from ¥346,443,875.90 year-on-year[5] - Basic and diluted earnings per share both decreased by 38.46%, from ¥0.13 to ¥0.08[5] - Total operating revenue for the current period is ¥3,078,754,281.52, a decrease of 1.93% from ¥3,139,311,437.98 in the previous period[23] - Net profit for the current period is ¥212,993,803.10, down 38.1% from ¥345,304,131.13 in the previous period[24] - Operating profit decreased to ¥288,408,918.91, a decline of 36.0% from ¥450,785,045.37 in the previous period[24] - The total comprehensive income for the current period is ¥214,151,026.58, down from ¥341,252,578.37 in the previous period[24] - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company was CNY 215,524,276.61, down from CNY 342,392,323.14 in the previous period, representing a decrease of approximately 37%[25] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities was ¥152,533,690.47, representing a significant decline of 81.71% compared to ¥833,987,358.15 in the previous year[5] - Cash inflow from operating activities totaled CNY 3,944,939,978.48, compared to CNY 3,846,253,863.61 in the prior period, showing a slight increase of about 2.6%[25] - Cash outflow from operating activities increased to CNY 3,792,406,288.01 from CNY 3,012,266,505.46, marking an increase of approximately 25.8%[25] - Cash flow from investing activities resulted in a net outflow of CNY 123,919,371.74, compared to a net outflow of CNY 15,869,362.90 in the previous period, indicating a worsening of approximately 680%[26] - Cash flow from financing activities showed a net outflow of CNY 82,042,140.04, compared to a net outflow of CNY 753,384,504.55 in the prior period, reflecting an improvement of about 89%[26] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was CNY 6,023,974,704.55, down from CNY 8,158,877,290.76, representing a decrease of approximately 26.2%[26] - The company received CNY 2,678,440.00 from investment activities, a decrease from CNY 4,000,000.00 in the previous period, indicating a decline of about 33%[26] - The company reported a significant increase in cash received from investment recoveries, totaling CNY 2,935,837,230.35, compared to CNY 105,754,957.04 in the prior period, representing an increase of approximately 2,676%[25] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥18,794,716,920.39, down 1.60% from ¥19,100,703,356.69 at the end of the previous year[5] - The company's total assets as of the latest report amount to ¥18,794,716,920.39, a decrease from ¥19,100,703,356.69 at the beginning of the period[19] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to ¥6,232,473,666.20 from ¥6,285,081,629.10, indicating a decline of approximately 0.84%[19] - The company's inventory decreased to ¥3,347,308,962.18 from ¥3,481,423,549.29, reflecting a reduction of about 3.84%[20] - The total liabilities decreased to ¥6,742,137,683.90 from ¥7,274,043,740.05, reflecting a reduction of 7.33%[21] - Total equity attributable to shareholders increased to ¥12,054,949,166.91 from ¥11,830,344,557.93, an increase of 1.89%[21] Shareholder Information - The number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 25,064, with the top ten shareholders holding significant stakes[10] - As of March 31, 2025, Qiu Jianqiang holds 359,442,552 shares, accounting for 13.34% of the total share capital, with 136,780,000 shares pledged, representing 5.08% of total share capital and 38.05% of his holdings[13] Strategic Plans - The company plans to focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing product development strategies in the upcoming quarters[5] Other Financial Metrics - The company reported a tax expense of ¥74,438,263.31, down from ¥104,541,063.96, a decrease of 28.8%[24] - Research and development expenses were ¥41,644,818.76, a decrease of 10.5% from ¥46,328,736.81 in the previous period[24] - Other comprehensive income after tax for the current period is ¥1,157,223.48, compared to a loss of ¥4,051,552.76 in the previous period[24] - Non-recurring gains and losses totaled ¥20,817,312.30, with government subsidies contributing ¥12,835,781.25[6] - The company reported a significant increase in trading financial assets, rising to ¥1,190,338,663.44 from ¥938,955,261.71, an increase of approximately 26.69%[19] - The total amount invested in asset custody plans reached ¥131,492,022.43, focusing on low-risk investments[18] - The company approved a stock option incentive plan on September 24, 2024, granting 97,233,500 stock options at an exercise price of ¥3.69 per option[16] - The company plans to cancel 39,145,520 stock options due to unmet performance targets for the first exercise period[17]

Group 1 - Zhejiang Senzhi Future Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 10 million yuan [1] - The legal representative of the company is Lu Lina [1] - The business scope includes internet information services, software development, software sales, computer system services, information system integration services, network equipment sales, and retail of electronic components [1] Group 2 - The company is wholly owned by Semir Apparel (002563) through indirect holdings [1]