生猪：如何看待春节前后猪价 20260125 摘要 春节后生猪供给压力缓解，价格预计在 5.5-6 元/公斤区间波动，二次育 肥推迟出栏时间是主因，但整体消费疲软态势未变。 产能去化缓慢，疫情和亏损是关键因素。当前仔猪成本虽有下降，但规 模厂仍能维持运营，去产能条件尚不充分，未来或面临重大疾病风险。 部分养殖企业通过养大猪替代小型养殖户的市场需求，尤其在冬季消费 旺季，满足特定地区对大体重猪的需求。 2026 年生猪出栏量预计增加 5%，主要为商品猪出栏增加，部分中小企 业逆势扩张是主因，大型企业产能调控效果有限。 原料价格存在不确定性，玉米和豆粕等饲料原料价格可能反弹，将对依 赖低价原料的养殖业造成成本压力。 仔猪数量在 2026 年 10 月达到顶峰后小幅下降，预计 2027 年 3 月或 4 月仔猪现货价格触底，未来供应量或将减少。 屠宰场盈利困难，龙头企业通过低价策略和养殖端补贴占据市场份额， 中小屠宰场难以竞争，行业洗牌或将加速。 Q&A 近期生猪价格走势如何？春节前后的价格预期是什么？ 近期生猪价格大致维持在 13 元/公斤左右，并出现震荡。春节前一周，由于消 费高峰尚未到来，预计价格将偏弱，可能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - Corn prices continue to rise, with a current spot price of 2,375 CNY/ton as of January 23, 2026, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.46%. The report is optimistic about the recovery of planting sentiment in the agricultural sector [4][10] - The report highlights a trend of increasing investment in the agricultural sector, with institutional investors increasing their holdings in companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhongxing Junye, while reducing positions in others like Noposion and New Hope [3] - The pet industry is also highlighted, with significant trends noted in pet fashion and pet-human cohabitation, indicating a growing investment in this sector. Major pet exhibitions are scheduled for March 2026, which are expected to catalyze new product launches [5] Summary by Sections Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's fund holdings are valued at 46.896 billion CNY, which is 0.14 percentage points below the standard industry allocation ratio, marking five consecutive quarters of underperformance [3] - The report anticipates stable to rising prices for corn and other grains, which is expected to benefit seed companies that adhere to a "quality for price" strategy [4] Livestock and Poultry - The report notes fluctuations in pig prices, with a current price of 13.1 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.92% weekly increase. However, the annual comparison shows a decrease of 15.19% [10] - The average self-breeding and self-raising profit in the industry is reported at 43.4 CNY per head, showing a significant increase of 486.6% week-on-week [10] Pet Industry - The report emphasizes the increasing consumer investment in pets, with major exhibitions in South and North China expected to draw significant attention and new product launches from leading brands [5] - Recommended stocks in the pet sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipubio, all of which are expected to benefit from the growing market [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with several companies rated as "Overweight," including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [39]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of pork prices as the breeding stock decreases to 35.61 million heads by the end of December, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the seed industry revitalization action, which has made significant progress in enhancing seed security and promoting domestic seed usage [1][12] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, contributing to higher self-sufficiency rates in key varieties [1][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reported progress in the seed industry revitalization action, with a focus on policy support, funding, and institutional guarantees [1][12] - Key companies recommended for investment include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, as well as leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 12.99 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.27% [2][13] - The breeding stock of sows is at 39.61 million heads, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [2][13] - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Lihua Co., Muyuan Foods, and Shuanghui Development [5][13] Feed and Veterinary - The average price of pig feed is 2.65 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.38% [52] - Companies in the feed sector such as Haida Group and veterinary companies like Jinhai Biological and Zhongmu Co. are expected to benefit [5][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in demand during the peak season, leading to sustained strong prices for pork. It anticipates a new cycle of prosperity in the livestock industry driven by the resonance between meat and dairy sectors [3][4]. - The report suggests that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial in determining profitability levels for the year [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the meat chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn of 3-4 years, is likely to gradually emerge from its cyclical bottom due to improvements in demand [3][4]. - The beef and raw milk sectors are projected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, marking a turning point for the cycle [3][4]. - The edible mushroom sector is expected to see significant improvements in industry structure after 2-3 years of capacity clearance, with early investments in the second growth curve beginning to yield results [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.6%. The top five gainers included Fujian Jinsen (15.7%), Hainan Rubber (15.5%), and Wancheng Group (14.3) [3][4]. - The report recommends focusing on growth opportunities and suggests stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, and Wen's Foodstuffs [3][4]. Livestock Sector - In the beef sector, prices for beef cattle, calves, and beef have seen slight increases, indicating the beginning of a long-term upward trend. The average price for fattening bulls was 25.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.25% [3][4]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease, with a projected output of 51.33 million heads in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3][4]. Swine Farming - The report indicates that the price of live pigs remains strong due to seasonal stocking demands, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 13.03 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.66% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of weaned piglets, which reached an average of 352 CNY/head, up by 45 CNY/head week-on-week [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market is characterized by an oversupply, leading to a decline in chick prices. The average price for white feather broiler chicks was 1.87 CNY/chick, down 28.6% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report suggests that the continued oversupply of white chickens will be a key theme in 2026, with a focus on the development and long-term value of leading enterprises [3][4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a rebound in pig prices, with the average price for lean pigs at 13.09 CNY/kg as of January 23, reflecting a 4.8% week-on-week increase, although down 17.6% year-on-year. The industry is returning to profitability, with self-breeding operations reportedly earning about 40 CNY per head [2][10] - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of piglets, which rose to 353 CNY/head, a 7% increase week-on-week, suggesting a positive outlook among farmers for pig prices in the second half of the year [2][10] - The report recommends major breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential in smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [2][10] Livestock Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.7 CNY/jin, down 1.3% week-on-week, with supply concerns due to avian influenza affecting imports from France [2][10] - The dairy sector shows a slight increase in fresh milk prices to 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week, while some regions report prices rebounding to 3.3-3.4 CNY/kg [2][11] - The report notes that the supply of beef is expected to tighten due to new import tariffs, which may lead to increased domestic beef prices and improved earnings for companies like Yurun Food and Modern Farming [2][11] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a continued upward trend in aquaculture prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances and seasonal factors, which may benefit feed demand in the short term [2][12] - The feed industry remains competitive, with leading companies expected to gain market share due to their comprehensive advantages [2][12] - The report suggests that leading animal health companies are expanding into pet healthcare, with growth potential in pet vaccines and pharmaceuticals [2][12] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1 percentage point, with the sector rising by 0.4% while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.6% [2][18] - Sub-sectors such as planting, agricultural processing, and fisheries showed notable gains, with increases of 4.1%, 4.0%, and 2.9% respectively [2][18] Agricultural Product Prices - The report tracks significant price movements in agricultural products, noting a 4.8% increase in pig prices and a 1.3% decrease in chicken prices [2][20] - The report also highlights the current prices of corn at 2375 CNY/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3194 CNY/ton, down 0.1% [2][44][53] - The report indicates that the price of wheat has also increased by 0.5% to 2527 CNY/ton [2][55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pig farming sector, recommending continued investment in this area due to low valuations and expected profitability [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pig prices to 13 CNY/kg, with self-breeding and self-raising operations achieving profitability for two consecutive weeks [4]. - The white feather breeding stock update for 2025 is projected at 1.5742 million sets, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [5]. - The pet food market in urban China is expected to reach 312.6 billion CNY in 2025, growing by 4.1% year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices have rebounded to 13 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.7%. The average weight of pigs at slaughter has risen to 128.89 kg, with a decrease in the proportion of heavier pigs [4]. - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising operations has reached 43.35 CNY per head, marking a significant recovery since December 2025 [4]. - The report forecasts a new wave of price declines post-Spring Festival, indicating potential capacity reduction in the pig farming industry [4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather breeding stock update for 2025 is 1.5742 million sets, with 55% from self-breeding and 45% from imports. The price of yellow feather chicken has increased by 2.6% week-on-week [5]. - The average price of chicken products is reported at 9,250 CNY/ton, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [5]. Pet Industry - The urban pet market is projected to grow to 312.6 billion CNY in 2025, with dog and cat markets at 160.6 billion CNY and 152.0 billion CNY, respectively [6]. - The number of pet dogs and cats in urban areas is expected to reach 126.32 million, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [8]. - Pet food remains the primary consumption category, accounting for 53.7% of the market share, with a projected market size of approximately 167.9 billion CNY in 2025 [8].

Group 1 - Shuanghui launched a new Chinese-style marinated food brand "Lufu Zhai," focusing on blending traditional culture with modern aesthetics through gift box series [1] - The brand name "Lufu Zhai" symbolizes good fortune and is designed to convey auspicious blessings, positioning itself as a "new Chinese-style sauce and marinated gift expert" [1] - The brand aims to create culturally rich and emotionally valuable gift products while preserving classic marinated food techniques [1] Group 2 - Nanyang Biaodian introduced a new "Spicy Hot Pot Flavor Flower Roll," featuring a visually appealing design and rich flavors [2] - Xuechuan launched "Cajun Flavor French Fries" and "Original Cut Crispy Fries," focusing on diverse taste experiences and health-conscious ingredients [3][6] - Tangrenshen released "Hunan-style Sausage Duo," using high-quality pork and a quick marination process to retain freshness [7] Group 3 - The Chinese government is drafting national standards for prepared dishes to enhance consumer protection and promote high-quality industry development [11] - Muyuan Foods is set to list in Hong Kong as early as February, with an IPO fundraising target of $1.5 billion [7] - By 2025, China's meat production (pork, beef, lamb, poultry) is expected to exceed 100 million tons for the first time, with pork production reaching 5.938 million tons [12] Group 4 - Yuanji Foods submitted an application for a mainboard listing in Hong Kong, reporting significant revenue growth and a strong market position in the Chinese fast-food sector [10] - Big Pizza is preparing for an IPO, showcasing strong growth with a revenue increase of over 63% year-on-year [17] - Zhengda announced plans to start a new shrimp farming project in Jiangsu in 2026, with an expected production increase of 17% [20][21] Group 5 - Xibei received new financing, increasing its registered capital by approximately 13% [24][25] - Shandong Yisheng completed a board restructuring to enhance governance and operational efficiency [22][23]

基金年报对农业维持低配，精选农业个股。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 农业《猪价继续上涨，关注寒潮和腊月对价格影 响》2026.01.18 农业《业绩的线索》2026.01.11 农业《周期破晓见曦，成长擎画新篇》2026.01.03 农业《瑞派宠物医院递表，宠物医疗关注度提 升》2025.12.28 农业《冬至备货小高峰结束，价格先涨后跌》 2025.12.22 [Table_Industry] 农业 维持低配，β弱α强 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——2025 基金年报农林牧渔板块持仓分析 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com ...

Core Insights - The Chinese meat consumption landscape is evolving, with pork consumption expected to reach 58 million tons by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 1.5% from 2024, primarily due to declining consumer willingness and slower recovery in dining consumption [2] - Beef and poultry consumption are on the rise, with beef gaining popularity due to its high protein and low-fat content, while chicken remains favored for its economic and nutritional advantages [3][4] - The meat supply chain is undergoing significant changes driven by market forces and policy adjustments, with a notable decline in the breeding sow population and a potential recovery in pork prices by Q3 2026 [5] Industry Trends - The integration of smart technology in the food supply chain is advancing, with automation being implemented across various stages from farming to restaurant operations, driven by rising labor costs [7][9] - The average monthly salary for restaurant staff has increased, with waitstaff and chefs earning approximately 4,851 yuan and 6,696 yuan respectively as of Q3 2025, prompting a shift towards automation to manage costs [8] - Companies are increasingly adopting intelligent devices to enhance operational efficiency, with the cost of automation technology decreasing significantly over the past five years [9][10] Supply Chain Transparency - Food safety and traceability are becoming critical competitive factors in the restaurant industry, with leading brands implementing comprehensive transparency measures to build consumer trust [12][14] - The trend towards transparency is pushing the industry to establish new benchmarks, as consumers begin to demand visibility into the supply chain from other restaurants [14][16] - Technological advancements in traceability, such as blockchain and IoT, are expected to lower costs and make these systems accessible to smaller enterprises, potentially leading to a future where every food item has a digital identity [16][17] Conclusion - The competitive landscape of the Chinese restaurant industry is shifting towards supply chain resilience, data transparency, and operational efficiency, which will be crucial for long-term sustainability [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak fluctuation in pig prices, with the average price in December 2025 at 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.09% month-on-month and down 26.76% year-on-year. However, a supply gap for heavy pigs is expected to lead to a price rebound [9][19]. - The white feather chicken prices showed an upward trend in December, with an average price of 3.67 yuan/jin, up 5.16% month-on-month, supported by tight supply and demand [9][25]. - Pet food exports maintained a year-on-year growth, with December 2025 exports at 37,700 tons, up 15.49% year-on-year, although the export value in USD decreased by 1.68% [9][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In December 2025, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 0.24%, ranking 22nd among 30 sectors, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 2.28%, indicating a 2.04 percentage point underperformance [9][12]. Livestock Industry Data Tracking - **Pig Farming**: The average price of pigs in December was 11.58 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.76%. The supply-demand dynamics are expected to stabilize, with a potential increase in prices due to supply gaps [19][24]. - **White Feather Chicken**: The average price for white feather chicken in December was 3.67 yuan/jin, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.16% due to tight supply and demand support [25][29]. Pet Food - Pet food exports in December reached 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49%, while the total export value for the year was 1.412 billion USD, down 4.62% year-on-year [32][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, and Guobao Pet, all rated as "Buy" based on their earnings forecasts and relative valuation [1][9].