| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 公告编号：2024-071 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于签署《专项贷款合同》 暨获得回购公司股份融资支持的自愿性信息披露公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 根据《中国人民银行 金融监管总局 中国证监会关于设立股票回购增持再贷 款有关事宜的通知》，牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与中信银行股 份有限公司南阳分行（以下简称"中信银行"）签署了《人民币股票回购/增持专 项贷款合同》（以下简称"专项贷款合同"），中信银行将为公司提供 24 亿元的贷 款资金专项用于公司股份回购。 一、 公司股份回购进展情况 公司于 2024 年 9 月 25 日召开的第四届董事会第二十九次会议审议通过了 《关于回购公司股份的议案》，公司拟使用自有资金或自筹资金以集中竞价交易 的方式回购公司发行的人民币普通股（A 股），回购总金额不低于人民币 30 亿元 且不超过人民币 40 亿元（均含本数），回购价格不超过人民币 ...

| | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于首次回购股份暨回购进展情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 9 月 25 日召开的第 四届董事会第二十九次会议审议通过了《关于回购公司股份的议案》，公司拟使 用自有资金或自筹资金以集中竞价交易的方式回购公司发行的人民币普通股（A 股），回购总金额不低于人民币 30 亿元且不超过人民币 40 亿元（均含本数），回 购价格不超过人民币 58.60 元/股（含本数）。按回购金额上限人民币 40 亿元、回 购价格上限 58.60 元/股测算，预计可回购股数约为 6,825.94 万股，占公司目前总 股本的 1.25%；按回购金额下限人民币 30 亿元、回购价格上限 58.60 元/股测算， 预计可回购股数约为 5,119.45 万股，占公司目前总股本的 0.94%。具体回购股份 的数量以回购期满时实际回购的股份数量为准。公司本次回购的股份将全部用于 员工持股计划或股权激励计划，实施期限自公司董事会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个月内。具体内容详见公司 ...

市场数据(2024-10-14) 收盘价(元) 43.29 一年内最高/最低(元) 49.35/31.64 沪深 300 指数 3,961.34 市净率(倍) 3.75 流通市值(亿元) 1,649.66 基础数据(2024-06-30) 每股净资产(元) 11.54 每股经营现金流(元) 2.83 毛利率(%) 7.74 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) 1.29 资产负债率(%) 61.81 总股本/流通股(万股) 546,535.32/381,071.7 3 畜牧业 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 业绩表现亮眼，成本进一步下降 ——牧原股份(002714)2024 年三季报预告点评 发布日期：2024 年 10 月 15 日 投资要点： 证券研究报告-季报点评 增持(维持) 公司前三季度业绩扭亏为盈，Q3 表现亮眼。根据公司公告，预计 2024 年前 3 季度实现归母净利润 100-110 亿元，同比扭亏为盈 （2023 年同期亏损 18.42 亿元）；扣非后净利润为 115-125 亿元， 同比扭亏为盈（2023 年同期亏损 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9-10 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 860.63% to 967.36% [3][4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the total net profit is projected to be 10-11 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround from losses in the previous year [3][4] - The improvement in performance is attributed to an increase in the number of pigs sold and the average selling price, alongside a decrease in breeding costs compared to the previous year [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 90-100 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth [3][4] - The total sales of pigs for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 50.14 million heads, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [4] - The average profit per pig for Q3 2024 is estimated to be around 640-660 yuan, with total breeding costs expected to be approximately 13.6-13.8 yuan/kg [4][5] Production Capacity - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company has a breeding stock of 3.316 million sows, which is a 30.7% increase compared to Q3 2023 [5] - The company plans to maintain a steady growth strategy, with an expected total output of 66-72 million pigs for the entire year of 2024 [5] Management and Strategy - The company demonstrates strong management capabilities, with effective cost control and operational efficiency [6][7] - The company has invested in expanding its slaughtering capacity, with 10 slaughterhouses in operation, aiming to enhance profitability in this segment [6][7] - The management's focus on both breeding and slaughtering operations is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][7] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 15.26 billion, 25.18 billion, and 22.87 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.79, 4.61, and 4.18 yuan [7][9] - The price-to-earnings ratios for the same period are expected to be 12, 9, and 10 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10-11 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a significant year-on-year increase of 860.6% to 967.4% [2][5] - The rise in pig prices has remained high, contributing to the expected growth in Q3 performance, which aligns with market expectations [2][5] - The company has successfully reduced breeding costs, with the complete cost dropping to 13.7 yuan per kilogram in August 2024, and is projected to further decrease to 13 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2024 [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a net profit of 90-100 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 738.8% to 818.6% [2][5] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters reached 50.144 million, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, with Q3 alone accounting for 17.756 million pigs, an 8.4% quarter-on-quarter growth [2][3] Cost Management - The company has achieved a continuous reduction in breeding costs, with a focus on improving production efficiency and learning from global benchmarks in pig farming [2][3] Financial Health - The company issued short-term financing bonds to ensure sufficient cash flow, with a total issuance of 500 million yuan at a rate of 2.5% [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 3-4 billion yuan to boost employee morale and demonstrate confidence in long-term development [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 133.48 billion, 152.01 billion, and 155.19 billion yuan respectively, with EPS estimates of 2.80, 4.70, and 3.62 yuan [5][7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected at 15.5, 9.3, and 12.0 for the respective years [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 57.31 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 41.99 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q3 2024, with a forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders of 10-11 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 642.79%-697.07%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be 11.5-12.5 billion CNY, up 844.91%-909.68% [2]. - The increase in profits is attributed to rising pig prices, increased sales volume, and declining breeding costs. The average breeding cost in Q3 is estimated to be around 13.7-13.9 CNY per kilogram, down 0.4-0.6 CNY from Q2 [2]. - The company is steadily advancing its slaughtering and meat processing business, with a total of 7.11 million pigs slaughtered from January to August 2024, and a current slaughtering capacity of 29 million pigs per year [2]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 3-4 billion CNY, which is expected to reflect confidence in its future development [2]. Financial Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported a 6.7% year-on-year increase in pig sales, with a total of 50.144 million pigs sold [2]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 3.61, 4.04, and 5.24 CNY, respectively [2]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be 135.741 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 22.4% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 19.73 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 562.8% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 54.53 [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit of RMB 90-100 billion in Q3, showing a significant year-on-year increase due to cost reductions and rising pig prices. The profit per head for fattened pigs may exceed RMB 600 [2][3]. - The company has a strong ability to realize profits in the future, supported by continuous cost reductions and stable increases in breeding sows [2][5]. - The company is entering a stable development phase with lower capital expenditures and improving cash flow, which may lead to more positive returns for investors [5][6]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a profit of RMB 90-100 billion in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 861% to 967%. The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q3 is estimated at 2.776 million, with a profit per head of approximately RMB 450-550 [2][3]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average complete cost in Q3 is estimated to be around RMB 13.7-14 per kilogram, a decrease of over RMB 0.5 per kilogram compared to the previous quarter. The average price for fattened pigs in Q3 is RMB 18.89 per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18% [3][5]. Breeding and Market Conditions - The company has approximately 3.32 million breeding sows as of the end of Q3, with a slight increase from the previous quarter. The industry is experiencing low enthusiasm for replenishing breeding sows, which may support high pig prices in the future [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 188 billion, RMB 399 billion, and RMB 368 billion, respectively. The corresponding BVPS (Book Value Per Share) is expected to be RMB 14.94, RMB 22.03, and RMB 28.56 [2][6].

| | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 董 事 会 公司将根据市场情况实施本次回购方案，并按照相关法律法规的规定及时履 行信息披露义务。敬请广大投资者关注后续公告，并注意投资风险。 特此公告。 牧原食品股份有限公司 2024 年 10 月 10 日 牧原食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 9 月 25 日召开的第 四届董事会第二十九次会议审议通过了《关于回购公司股份的议案》，公司拟使 用自有资金或自筹资金以集中竞价交易的方式回购公司发行的人民币普通股（A 股），回购总金额不低于人民币 30 亿元且不超过人民币 40 亿元（均含本数），回 购价格不超过人民币 58.60 元/股（含本数）。按回购金额上限人民币 40 亿元、回 购价格上限 58.60 元/股测算，预计可回购股数约为 6,825.94 万股，占公司目前总 股本的 1.25%；按回购金额下限人民币 30 亿元、回购价格上限 58.60 元/股测算， 预计可回购股数约为 5,119.45 万股，占公司目前总股本的 0 ...

Financial Performance Expectations - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 10 billion and 11 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 642.79% to 697.07% from a loss of 1.842 billion CNY in the same period last year[3] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 11 billion and 12.5 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 844.91% to 909.68% from a loss of 1.544 billion CNY last year[3] - For the period from July 1 to September 30, 2024, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 9 billion and 10 billion CNY, indicating a year-on-year increase of 860.63% to 967.36% from a profit of 0.937 billion CNY in the same period last year[4] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the same period is projected to be between 10.5 billion and 11.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 738.75% to 818.63% from a profit of 1.252 billion CNY last year[4] - The basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 is expected to be between 1.85 CNY and 2.00 CNY, compared to a loss of 0.34 CNY per share in the same period last year[3] Operational Factors - The company achieved a turnaround from loss to profit primarily due to an increase in the number of pigs sold and the average selling price of pigs, along with a decrease in breeding costs compared to the previous year[5] - The company warns that significant fluctuations in pig market prices could materially impact its operating performance, highlighting the inherent risks in the pig production industry[5] Regulatory and Investor Communication - The company emphasizes that the financial data provided is preliminary and subject to final confirmation in the third-quarter report[6] - The company will adhere to legal and regulatory requirements for timely information disclosure[6] - The board of directors issued a reminder for investors to be cautious regarding investment risks[7]

牧[Ta原ble股_Sto份ckN（ameRptType] 002714） 公司点评 [Table_Title] Q3 出栏量同比增长 6%，生猪净利有望突破 100 亿 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...