牧原股份(002714) 报告日期：2024 年 08 月 12 日 板块中军，攻防俱佳 ——牧原股份点评报告 投资要点 公司发布 2024 年半年度报告：利润实现扭亏为盈 2024H1 实现营业收入 568.66 亿元，同比增长 9.63%，实现归母净利润 8.29 亿 元，同比扭亏为盈；单 Q2 实现营业收入 305.94 亿元，同比增长 10.56%，实现 归母净利润 32.08 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 业绩波动原因： （1）收入端：生猪养殖业务量价齐升助力收入增长。 销售量：根据公司公告，2024H1 销售生猪 3238.8 万头，同比增长 7.01%，其中 商品猪 2898.2 万头，仔猪 309.3 万头，种猪 31.2 万头；2023H1 销售生猪 3026.5 万头，其中商品猪 2907.7 万头，仔猪 109.0 万头，种猪 9.7 万头。 销售均价：2024H1 猪价整体呈现震荡上行的趋势，公司商品猪销售价格逐月上 涨，尤其 4-6 月公司商品猪销售均价分别达到 14.80、15.52、17.73 元/公斤，而 2023 年同期仅在 14 元/公斤左右。 （2）成本端：生产成绩持续改善，养殖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the pig farming industry, with a fully integrated pork supply chain that includes feed processing, breeding, pig farming, and slaughtering [2][9]. - The pig price has entered an upward cycle, with the price reaching 10.43 CNY/kg on August 1, 2023, a 32.8% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating potential profitability for the company [2][18]. - The company has a significant cost advantage, with average profits per pig being nearly 100 CNY higher than the industry average, driven by scale procurement, breeding systems, and technological innovations [2][22]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 1992 and has focused on pig farming for over 30 years, expanding its operations outside Henan province since 2012 [2][9]. - The annual pig output has grown from 11.01 million heads in 2018 to 63.82 million heads in 2023, achieving a market share of 8.8% [2][9]. Industry Trends - The pig farming industry is experiencing a trend towards larger-scale operations, which are better equipped to manage costs and navigate price fluctuations [16][21]. - The current pig price cycle began in April 2022, with a typical upward phase lasting around 20 months [17][18]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1283.8 billion CNY in 2024, with net profits projected at 181.2 billion CNY [3][41]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is forecasted to be 15.8% in 2024, followed by 1.0% in 2025 and a slight decline of 0.6% in 2026 [3][41]. Cost Structure and Efficiency - The company has maintained a cost advantage through innovations in feed formulation, breeding systems, and smart farming technologies [2][22]. - The average cost of raising pigs is expected to decrease, with a target of reducing costs by 600 CNY per pig [2][36]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth, with a focus on high-quality development in its breeding and slaughtering operations [2][24]. - The company’s capital expenditure needs are expected to decline, leading to a lower debt ratio and potential for increased dividends in the future [2][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Muyuan Foods (002714 SZ) [5] Core Views - Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 56 9 billion yuan in H1 2024 (yoy +10%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 829 million yuan, turning from a loss to a profit [1][3] - The company's cost advantage is significant, with further cost optimization expected in the future, and its slaughter scale is growing steadily [1][3] - The pig price trend is favorable, and the company's profitability is substantial, with its valuation currently at a historical low [1][3] - The company's headcount market value is approximately 3,502 yuan/head as of August 2, 2024, at the 5th percentile of historical levels [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 30 6 billion yuan (yoy +11%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3 208 billion yuan, turning from a loss to a profit [1][3] - The company's pig slaughter volume in H1 2024 was 32 39 million heads (yoy +7%), with Q2 slaughter volume at 16 38 million heads, flat year-on-year [3][9] - The company's cost per kilogram of pork in Q2 2024 was 14 4 yuan/kg, with a profit per head of 203 yuan/head [3][10] - The company's total pig farming capacity is 80 48 million heads/year, sufficient to support the 2024 target slaughter volume of 66-72 million heads [4][13] Operational Highlights - The number of breeding sows increased from 3 13 million at the beginning of 2024 to 3 309 million by the end of June 2024 [4][13] - Fixed assets and construction in progress decreased slightly compared to the beginning of 2024, with fixed assets at 109 billion yuan and construction in progress at 2 1 billion yuan by the end of June 2024 [4][13] - Capital expenditures in H1 2024 decreased by 37% year-on-year, with Q2 capital expenditures at 1 188 billion yuan, the lowest since Q3 2018 [4][13] Debt and Cash Flow - The company's debt ratio decreased by 1 8 percentage points to 61 8% by the end of June 2024, with total liabilities decreasing by 6 6 billion yuan [4][14] - Short-term loans decreased by 7 6 billion yuan to 43 15 billion yuan, while long-term loans increased slightly by 680 million yuan to 11 123 billion yuan [4][14] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 2024 was 10 4 billion yuan, the second-highest since its listing [4][14] - The company's debt repayment-loan cash flow in Q2 2024 reached 7 5 billion yuan, the highest quarterly level since its listing [4][14]

| 证券代码：002714 | 证券简称：牧原股份 | 公告编号：2024-055 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127045 | 债券简称：牧原转债 | | 牧原食品股份有限公司 可转换公司债券 2024 年付息的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 5、"牧原转债"票面利率：第一年 0.20%、第二年 0.40%、第三年 0.80%、 第四年 1.20%、第五年 1.50%、第六年 2.00%。 6、本次付息的债权登记日：2024 年 8 月 15 日，在 2024 年 8 月 15 日（含） 前买入并持有本期债券的投资者享有本次派发的利息；2024 年 8 月 15 日卖出本 期债券的投资者不享有本次派发的利息。 7、下一付息期起息日：2024 年 8 月 16 日 1、"牧原转债"将于 2024 年 8 月 16 日按面值支付第三年利息，每 10 张 "牧原转债"（面值 1,000 元）利息为 8 元（含税）。 2、债权登记日：2024 年 8 月 15 日 3、除息日：2024 年 8 月 16 ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|牧原股份（002714） 成本逐步改善，全年业绩值得期待 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月05日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 公司披露 2024 年中报，实现营收 568.66 亿元，同比增长 9.63%；归母净利润 8.29 亿元，同 比上升 129.84%。公司 2024 年上半年度共销售生猪 3238.8 万头，同比增长 7%，其中商品猪 2898.2 万头，仔猪 309.3 万头，种猪 31.2 万头。公司预计 2024 年全年生猪出栏区间为 6600- 7200 万头。截至 2024 年 6 月末，公司能繁母猪存栏为 330.9 万头，生猪养殖产能为 8048 万 头/年。2024 年 6 月生猪养殖完全成本已降至 14 元/kg 左右，相比 2023 年全年平均 15.0 元 /kg 下降 1 元/kg 左右，预计后续随生产成绩提升，成本有望进一步下降。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 马鹏 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524050001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 05 日 证券研究报告•2024 年中报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：44.75 元 牧原股份（002714）农林牧渔 目标价：——元（6 个月） 降本增效量价齐升，Q2 业绩扭亏为盈 [Table_Summary 业绩总结：公司发布 ] 2024年中报。公 2024年上半年公司实现营业收入 568.66 亿元，同比增长 9.63%；实现归母净利润 8.29亿元，同比扭亏为盈。其中 24Q2 实现营业收入 305.94 亿元，同比+10.56%，实现归母净利润32.08 亿元。 点评：降本增效量价齐升，Q2业绩扭亏为盈。半年度经营业绩实现同比扭亏为 盈，主要原因为报告期内公司生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，且 生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。报告期内，随供需形式改善，生猪价格由 1 月 的 14.2 元/公斤上涨至 6 月的 18.3 元/公斤。2024 年上半年，公司出栏生猪 3,238.8 万头，同比增长 7%，其中商品猪 2,898.2 万头，仔猪 309.3 万头，种 猪 31.2万头。2024年 6月生猪养殖完全成本已降至 14元/ ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/农业/养殖业 证券研究报告 牧原股份（002714）公司半年报点评 2024 年 08 月 07 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------|---------------| | 08[Table_StockInfo 月 06日收盘价（元）] | 44.69 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 31.17-50.07 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 5465/3811 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 244247/170301 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《产能储备丰富，关注成本领先战略推进》 | | | 2024.04.30 | | | 《穿越周期，看好长期价值》 | 2024.04.19 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] 牧原股份 海通综指 -25.88% -17.88% -9.88% -1.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its core cost advantages and expected performance improvement as the pig cycle recovers [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a turnaround in performance for the first half of 2024, achieving a revenue of 56.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, and a net profit of 829 million yuan, compared to a loss in the same period last year [2][3]. - The increase in pig farming volume and declining costs contributed to the profitability, with total pig sales reaching 32.388 million heads, a 7% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company expects continued improvement in profitability due to a combination of rising pig prices and ongoing cost optimization, with a forecasted annual pig output between 66 million and 72 million heads [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.474 billion yuan and maintained a cash balance of 20.36 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.81%, down 1.78 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. - The company anticipates a further decline in breeding costs, which were approximately 14 yuan/kg in June 2024, down from an average of 15 yuan/kg in 2023 [2]. Production Capacity - The company slaughtered 5.415 million pigs in the first half of 2024, maintaining a capacity utilization rate of 37%, which is stable compared to the previous year [2]. - The company plans to enhance its meat sales market and optimize product structure to improve the profitability of its slaughtering segment [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 14.079 billion yuan, 27.204 billion yuan, and 21.946 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 4.97, and 4.01 yuan [3]. - The report highlights a positive trend in the pig market, suggesting that prices may continue to rise in the second half of the year due to seasonal demand [2][3].

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 生猪养殖 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ ） 增持 (维持) ＃dyCompany＃ 牧原股份 （ 002714 ） 002714 ＃title＃ 成本优化显著，公司 Q2 扭亏为盈 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 08 月 05 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 事件：公司 2024 上半年实现营收 568.66 亿元，同比+9.63%，实现归母净 利润 8.29 亿元，同比扭亏为盈；2024Q2 实现营收 305.94 亿元，同比 +10.56%，实现归母净利润 32.08 亿元，同比由亏转盈。 ⚫ 公司生猪出栏量稳步增长：公司 2024H1 共销售生猪 3238.8 万头，同比 +7.0%，其中商品猪 2898.2 万头，同比-0.3%，仔猪 309.3 万头，同比+9.5%， 种猪 31.2 万头，同比+221.6%。单季度来看，公司 2024Q2 共销售生猪 1637.7 万头，同比-0.3%，其中商品猪 1367.5 万头，同比-12.9%，仔猪 249.6 万头，同比+271.4% ...

畜牧业 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 养殖板块量价齐升，业绩同比扭亏为盈 ——牧原股份(002714)2024 年中报点评 发布日期：2024 年 08 月 06 日 投资要点： 证券研究报告-季报点评 增持(维持) 市场数据(2024-08-05) | --- | --- | |----------------------|----------------------| | 收盘价(元) | 44.75 | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 49.35/31.64 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,343.32 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.88 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,705.30 | | 基础数据(2024-06-30) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.54 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 2.83 | | 毛利率(%) | 7.74 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 1.29 | | 资产负债率(%) | 61.81 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 546,535.30/381,071.7 ...