Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and the basic chemicals sector [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry improved in January, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for 2026, with the CCPI-raw material price spread reaching 2631, up from 2500 at the end of 2025 [1][9]. - The demand for chemical products is shifting from real estate to consumer goods, infrastructure, and emerging technologies, with significant growth potential driven by global economic trends [2][11]. - The capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry has been declining since June 2025, suggesting a supply-side adjustment is approaching, which may lead to improved profitability in the sector [2][16]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January, oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and strong global crude oil replenishment demand, leading to a slight improvement in the price spread of most chemical products [9][21]. - Major price increases were observed in products like lithium carbonate and butadiene, while some products like methyltrichlorosilane saw price declines due to supply adjustments [3][33]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The January PMI was reported at 49.3, indicating a continued bottoming out in the real estate sector, while consumer goods and major infrastructure showed positive growth [2][11]. - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, supported by the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and North America, and economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][11][14]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential recovery, such as oil and gas, basic chemicals, and companies leveraging synthetic biology for cost reduction [32]. - Specific stock recommendations include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Baofeng Energy, and Yun Tianhua, among others, highlighting their potential for growth and profitability [7][32]. Monthly Performance Review - In January, the basic chemical index rose by 12.72%, with significant gains in sub-sectors like dye chemicals and petrochemical raw materials [34][36]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with various sub-sectors showing positive price movements and improved market conditions [34][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity across various sub-sectors, with specific recommendations for leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) in the MDI sector, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy) in the refining sector [3][5] - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise, driven by investments in the iron-lithium supply chain, indicating a tightening supply-demand situation that may elevate market conditions [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report continues to favor recovery opportunities in the chemical sub-sectors, recommending leading companies such as: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC industry: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Agricultural chemical chain: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Xinyangfeng (000902, Buy), Shidanli (002588, Not Rated), Yuntu Holdings (002539, Not Rated), Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy) - Phosphate chemical sector: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3] Market Dynamics - The chemical industry has seen increased attention, with a recovery in stock prices following a dip influenced by precious metals and crude oil futures. This indicates a shift away from previous narratives tied to external market influences [8] - The report highlights that the current chemical market rally is primarily driven by policy guidance and strategic adjustments within the industry, suggesting a return to a favorable economic cycle for the chemical sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of resource integration versus technological innovation in the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry, highlighting a shift in the business model from merely selling materials to focusing on processing capabilities and stable delivery [1][12]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - In January 2026, lithium iron phosphate was included in the National Bureau of Statistics' monitoring of 50 important production materials, with prices increasing by 11.3% month-on-month in early January and an additional 5.9% later in the month, reaching 57,337 yuan per ton [1]. - Phosphate chemical companies are increasingly investing in the lithium iron phosphate supply chain, with traditional phosphate enterprises like Xingfa Group and Chuanheng Co. being evaluated alongside LFP producers [2][19]. Group 2: Lessons from Previous Cross-Industry Ventures - The previous wave of titanium dioxide companies entering the lithium iron phosphate market was driven by the potential to utilize by-products like ferrous sulfate, but many projects faced significant challenges, leading to low operational rates and project terminations [4][5]. - The failure of these cross-industry ventures was attributed to the industrial nature of material delivery, where consistency in product quality is crucial for securing contracts with leading battery manufacturers [6][7]. Group 3: Current Industry Innovations - A notable innovation in the current phosphate chemical industry is the adoption of contract processing agreements, exemplified by Xingfa Group's deal with Qinghai Fudi Industrial to process 80,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate annually [11][12]. - This shift towards a processing fee model allows companies to stabilize cash flow and operational rates without solely relying on material prices, contrasting with previous strategies that focused on high material sales [13][15]. Group 4: Resource Integration and Competitive Landscape - Phosphate chemical companies have a natural advantage in the lithium iron phosphate market due to their established resource networks, which include access to phosphate rock and related processing capabilities [16][17]. - The industry's competitive dynamics are evolving, with traditional lithium iron phosphate producers facing pressure to integrate resources and engineering capabilities to remain competitive, leading to a potential consolidation of the market into a few comprehensive platforms [19][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3][7]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the pesticide industry [4][7]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a 27.52% increase year-on-year [1][41]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over two years [2][50]. - As of January 30, 2026, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock was 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan, stable compared to the previous month [2][50]. - Companies with clear expansion plans such as Chuanheng Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group are recommended for investment [7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][7]. - The production of glyphosate in China is projected to grow significantly from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 45.78% [4][7]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are expected to benefit from price increases and improved margins [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][8]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with contract prices rising due to increased demand and limited domestic production [1][5]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for certain pesticides, including glyphosate, is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Potassium fertilizer prices are recovering due to strong demand, with domestic production expected to decrease slightly in 2024 while imports reach a historical high [1][25]. - As of January 2026, the average market price for potassium chloride was 3,295 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.52% [1][41]. - Key companies recommended include Yara International, with projected potassium chloride production of 280 million tons in 2025 and 400 million tons in 2026 [5][8]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei [2][50]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is driving the growth of phosphate rock consumption, with significant price increases observed in related products [2][3]. - Recommended companies include Chuanheng Co., which has clear expansion plans, and Yuntianhua, a leading player in the phosphate chemical sector [5][7]. Pesticides - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to increase production costs for pesticide companies, leading to a potential rise in prices for glyphosate and other products [4][5]. - The market for glyphosate is projected to grow significantly, with production expected to increase from 18,300 tons in 2020 to 120,400 tons by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 45.78% [4][5]. - Companies recommended in this sector include Lier Chemical and Liming Chemical, which are well-positioned to benefit from the changing market dynamics [5][7].

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where increased production does not result in increased profits, with the industry's operating income profit margin declining from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024 [2][17] - The report recommends investment directions in oil and gas, refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, and phosphorus chemicals, anticipating a gradual recovery in profitability as supply-side reforms take effect [4][21] Supply Side - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative starting June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle, with the "anti-involution" policy introduced in July aimed at curbing low-price competition and promoting the orderly exit of outdated capacity [2][19] - The report expects stricter approval for new chemical product capacities and accelerated clearance of outdated capacities, effectively alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [19][20] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus, while emerging demands from sectors like renewable energy and AI will drive the need for key chemical materials [3][19] - The report highlights that China's chemical products account for over 40% of global sales, and with overseas capacity being cleared, Chinese chemical companies are expected to gain market share globally [20] Oil Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 16.17% and 13.57% respectively by the end of January 2026 [4][21] - The report forecasts Brent oil prices to stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI prices between $52-62 per barrel in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production decisions and high operational costs in the U.S. shale oil sector [22][30] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with the report suggesting a focus on companies like China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential recovery in refining profits [7][22] - In the potash fertilizer sector, the report recommends Yara International, which has significant potash reserves and is expected to increase production capacity significantly by 2026 [8][22] - The phosphorus chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by energy storage applications, with a recommendation for Chuanheng Co. due to its strong resource base [23][24] Investment Portfolio - The recommended investment portfolio includes China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Yara International, and Chuanheng Co., highlighting their competitive advantages and growth potential in the current market environment [24][25]

石化化工行业 2026 年 2 月投资策略 优于大市 推荐油气、炼油炼化、钾肥、磷化工的投资方向 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 石化化工行业 2026 年 2 月投资观点： 石化化工是周期性行业，现阶段石化化工行业"内卷式"竞争问题突出， 低质量、同质化的无序竞争导致企业普遍面临增产不增利困境，全行业 营业收入利润率从 2021 年的 8.03%持续降至 2024 年的 4.85%，2025 年 以来部分子行业率先复苏，前三季度行业归母净利润同比增长 10.56%， 行业盈利逐渐企稳复苏。 供给端：化学原料及化学制品制造业投资固定资产累计投资额于 2025 年 6 月开始转负，SW 基础化工行业及多个细分子行业的资本开支连续多 个季度转负，此轮行业扩产周期接近尾声；7 月"反内卷"政策正式出 台，旨在治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能有序退出，农药、石化、 有机硅、PTA 聚酯等子行业相继响应"反内卷"出台或正在制定行业指 导文件。我们认为，后续将会看到更多化工产品新产能审批趋严、落后 产能（如规模小、能耗高、污染大）将加速出清，石化化工行业供给过 剩问题将得到有效缓解。 需求端：传统需求方面，伴 ...

证券日报网讯 2月2日，川恒股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月30日，公司股东为 30873户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券代码：002895 证券简称：川恒股份 公告编号：2026-004 贵州川恒化工股份有限公司 回购公司股份进展情况的公告（十一） 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 贵州川恒化工股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2025 年 2 月 25 日召开第四 届董事会第六次会议，2025 年 3 月 14 日召开 2025 年第一次临时股东大会，审 议通过了《回购公司股份的议案》，同意公司以集中竞价交易方式回购部分公司 股份用于注销并减少注册资本，回购金额不低于人民币 4,000 万元（含）且不超 过人民币 8,000 万元（含），回购价格不超过 24.33 元/股（未超过董事会通过回 购决议前 30 个交易日均价的 150%），回购资金为自有资金，实施期限为股东大 会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个月内。具体回购数量、回购资金总额以回购期 限届满时实际回购股份使用的资金总额、回购股份数量为准。具体内容详见公司 于 2025 年 2 月 26 日及 3 月 15 日在信息披露媒体披露的《回购公司股份方案的 公告》（公告编号：2025-011）及《回购报告 ...

Group 1 - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a significant decline of 6.88% on February 2, with Hongda Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - Key stocks in the agricultural chemical sector saw substantial losses, with Hongda Co. down 10.02% to 14.63, and Zhongnong United down 10.01% to 18.52 [1] Group 2 - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 2.269 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 2.299 billion yuan [1] - Individual stock fund flows showed varied results, with Guangxin Co. experiencing a net outflow of 40.09 million yuan from main funds [2] - Longqing Co. had a net inflow of 4.18 million yuan from main funds, while Jinzhen Co. saw a net outflow of 3.77 million yuan from retail investors [2]