2025年我国60岁及以上人口已达3.2亿，占总人口比重上升至23%，预计2035年前后，我国银发族人口数量将突破4 亿，到2050年左右突破5亿。 这为银发经济创造了前所未有的需求基数。 随着年龄增长，银发族代谢功能下降，导致银发族饮食结构被迫调 【国信食饮|张向伟团队】银发经济行业专题：掘金银发餐桌，从"吃饱"到"吃对" 银发族人口数量持续上升，健康食品成为蓝海市场。 随着年龄增长，银发族代谢功能下降，导致银发族饮食结构被迫调整，健康属性从可选变为刚需。 受益标的：#西麦食品，燕麦食品赛道龙头。 公司从燕麦谷物产品起步，在过去三十多年的发展历程中，公司产品矩阵逐渐丰富起来，近年来还推出了以生物 科技为技术基础的大健康产品。 目前西麦食品在燕麦食品行业以26.0%的市占率占据榜首（第二名为外资品牌桂格，18.2%），在渠道、品牌、供 应链等方面展现竞争优势。 我们认为公司主要看点有三： 1）饮食健康化、人口老龄化趋势促进燕麦食品渗透率加速提升，西麦食品近年来#在渠道端取得突破，不仅率先 覆盖多类新兴渠道，也持续强化渠道运营能力、针对细分渠道适配差异化产品，#预计公司燕麦业务基本盘稳健成 长并快于行业大盘； ...

第 1页 共 5页 第 2页 共 5页 一、研究背景评估 | 项目 | 说明 | | --- | --- | | 研究机构 | 国信证券经济研究所 | | | 具备中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格，专注于行业与公司研究。 | | 1. 权威性说明 | 专业资质：分析师张向伟、杨苑均具备证券投资咨询执业资格，研究体系规范。 | | 2. | 数据来源：引用国家统计局、Euromonitor、公司公告、海关总署、USDA 等权威数据源。 | | 3. | 连续跟踪：长期发布食品饮料行业周报、专题报告，对银发经济与健康食品有深度积累。 | | 4. | 机构背书：国盛证券（原文中提及，但报告为国信证券）为持牌金融机构，报告服务于机构投资者。 | | 样本数量 | 宏观数据分析，非抽样统计。覆盖银发人口、燕麦行业、公司经营等多维度数据。 | | 研究时间范围 2025 | 年及未来预测，数据更新至 2025 年末，并展望至 2027 年，具备强时效性。 | | 报告性质 | 行业专题研究报告，聚焦银发经济中的食品饮料机会，并以西麦食品为例深度分析。 | 二、范围与边界确认 | 研究维度 | 具体范围 | | -- ...

2025年我国60岁及以上人口已达3.2亿，占总人口比重上升至23%，较2024年上升了1个百分点，标志着 我国已正式迈入中度老龄化社会。中国老龄化科学研究中心预计2035年前后，我国银发族人口数量将突 破4亿，到2050年左右突破5亿。当前社会银发族经济基础较好、收入稳定性较强、健康意识显著提升， 正经历消费观念重塑，倾向于"悦己型"和"健康投资型"消费。 国信证券主要观点如下： 银发一族：有钱、有闲、有健康焦虑的优质消费者 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2025年我国60岁及以上人口达3.2亿，迈入中度老龄化社 会。银发族有钱有闲且有健康焦虑，驱动健康食品需求爆发。西麦食品(002956.SZ)作为燕麦龙头， 2024年市占率达26.0%，正围绕"燕麦谷物、大健康"双业务深化布局，受益于银发经济与健康消费趋 势。 健康食品成为蓝海市场 西麦食品从燕麦谷物赛道起步，历经三十余年发展历程，已完成从区域性品牌向全国行业龙头的蜕变。 2024年公司正式发布了新战略规划，明确继续围绕"健康产业"这一核心发展主线，积极布局"燕麦谷 物、大健康"两大业务。燕麦是一种健康食品的天然优质原料，其主要成分β-葡聚糖 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

近期事件 2026年1月，国家市场监督管理总局抽检发现西麦食品全资子公司生产的"中老年营养燕麦片"菌落总数 不符合国家标准。公司回应称问题源于经销商流通环节管控不当，已对涉事批次产品完成召回和销毁， 并加强渠道监管。此次事件可能对品牌信任度产生影响，需关注后续整改效果。 经济观察网 西麦食品（002956.SZ）近期有多项动态值得关注，包括产品质量事件、业务扩张计划、成 本盈利趋势及行业市场动态。 股票近期走势 西麦食品（股票代码：002956.SZ）近期有以下值得关注的事件，基于公开信息整理： 业务进展情况 公司正积极推进大健康战略，2025年第四季度推出的"药食同源"系列产品在部分区域试销反馈积极，预 计2026年在全国市场铺开后有望成为新增长点。同时，线上渠道（如抖音）保持高增长，线下零食量 贩、山姆会员店等新兴渠道拓展顺利，2026年渠道表现值得关注。 经营状况 受益于澳洲燕麦原料成本下行，公司2025年毛利率已提升。2026年原料供需格局预计继续改善，成本红 利可能进一步释放，叠加费用优化，利润弹性有望兑现。 行业状况 燕麦行业整体增速放缓，但西麦食品作为龙头持续聚焦银发经济和健康消费，通过产品结构 ...

Summary of Ximai Foods Conference Call Company Overview - Ximai Foods has established itself as a leading player in the oatmeal industry, having listed on the A-share market in 2019 and achieving a market share of 31% in China [2][5][3] - The company has expanded its operations from Guangxi to the Southwest and established production bases in Hezhou and Hebei, creating a North-South market structure [3][4] Financial Performance - From 2014 to 2024, Ximai's revenue is projected to grow from 540 million RMB to 1.89 billion RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% [2][3] - Profit peaked at 160 million RMB in 2019 but has declined due to rising import prices of oats; however, profitability is expected to improve starting in 2025 as oat prices decrease [2][3][13] - Revenue targets for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 2.2 billion, 2.5 billion, and 2.9 billion RMB respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][13] Market Dynamics - The Chinese breakfast oatmeal market is expected to reach 10.4 billion RMB by 2025, with a CAGR of 8% [2][5] - Oatmeal consumption in China is projected to grow, with a consumption volume of 234,000 tons by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 5% [5] - The retail market for oatmeal in China is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding a market share of 56% [5] Product and Marketing Strategy - Ximai Foods offers a diverse product line, with compound oatmeal becoming the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 45% of total revenue by the end of 2024 [6][7] - The company has a clear marketing structure, with dedicated teams for brand management, online sales, offline channels, and new business development [7] - Online sales have seen significant growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin, where sales are expected to rise from 170 million RMB in 2022 to 620 million RMB by 2025 [7] Health and Wellness Initiatives - Ximai has actively entered the health and wellness sector, launching new products like "Shiyang Chongpao Powder," which are expected to create new growth avenues [2][8] - The establishment of Xiyi Company, a joint venture with Yiyangsheng Group, aims to develop food-medicine integrated products, leveraging both companies' strengths [11][12] Competitive Advantages - Ximai's market share increase in 2021 can be attributed to its localized strategies, product iterations, and rapid adaptation to emerging channels [9][10] - The company has effectively utilized a unique channel development model involving laid-off women to enhance distribution and brand loyalty [10] Future Outlook - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth driven by demographic trends, the expansion of e-commerce, and breakthroughs in the health and wellness sector [13] - Key factors influencing profitability include declining oat prices, economies of scale, and an employee stock incentive plan [13][14] - The overall outlook is positive, with a buy rating recommended based on the company's robust growth potential and stable development trajectory [14]

Core Viewpoint - The leisure food sector experienced a 2.4% increase on February 4, with Wancheng Group leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive movement [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Wancheng Group (300972) closed at 209.30, with a rise of 7.33% and a trading volume of 36,300 lots, amounting to 739 million yuan [1]. - Guangzhou Restaurant (603043) closed at 18.15, up 2.83% with a trading volume of 58,500 lots, totaling 10.5 million yuan [1]. - Yanjin Puhui (002847) closed at 69.95, increasing by 2.70% with a trading volume of 49,400 lots, amounting to 344 million yuan [1]. - Other notable stocks include Ximai Food (002956) at 28.12 (+2.18%), Ligao Food (300973) at 44.20 (+2.10%), and Youyou Food (603697) at 13.78 (+2.07%) [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The leisure food sector saw a net outflow of 46.24 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 29.96 million yuan [2]. - Notable individual stock capital flows include Youyou Food with a net outflow of 36.51 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 3.84 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Salted Food (002847) experienced a net inflow of 10.05 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a slight outflow [3].

证券日报网讯 2月3日，西麦食品在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月30日，公司的股东 户数为10561户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Market Overview - The leisure food sector experienced a decline of 0.34% on February 3, with "Good Idea" leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - "Maiqu'er" (002719) closed at 9.45, up 3.39% with a trading volume of 163,400 shares and a transaction value of 154 million [1] - "Lihigh Food" (300973) closed at 43.29, up 2.73% with a trading volume of 62,400 shares and a transaction value of 262 million [1] - "Good Idea" (002582) closed at 13.03, down 3.05% with a trading volume of 477,400 shares and a transaction value of 623 million [2] - "Ximai Food" (002956) closed at 27.52, down 2.31% with a trading volume of 33,800 shares and a transaction value of 92 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The leisure food sector saw a net outflow of 84.37 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 79.99 million [2] - "Youyou Food" (603697) had a main fund net inflow of 21.20 million, while retail investors had a net outflow of 28.12 million [3] - "Wancheng Group" (300972) experienced a main fund net inflow of 13.24 million, with a retail net inflow of 27.37 million [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention due to expectations of improvement in related industries, with Moutai's wholesale prices showing unexpected resilience [4][43] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) leading the performance [4][15] - Notable individual stock performances include Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showing significant gains, while Haoxiangni, *ST Chuntian, and Anji Food experienced declines [4][15][20] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, while the price of white strip chicken is 17.0 yuan/kg, down 1.2% year-on-year [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with each showing potential for growth in 2026 [6]