Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like hydrochloric acid and liquid chlorine have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are expected to benefit from declining raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected, indicating potential investment opportunities [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report highlights significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%) and natural gas (8.68%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that may enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, and suggests specific companies for investment [22]. Market Performance - The report notes that the chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with varying results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - It recommends monitoring companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices, which in turn affect the chemical industry [23][24]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11].

Group 1 - The Chinese yuan has started the year strong, with the central bank's midpoint rate against the US dollar reported at 7.0120, an increase of 17 basis points, approaching the 7.0 mark [1] - As of early 2026, the yuan has appreciated by 0.26% against the dollar, while the spot exchange rate has risen approximately 0.2% [1] - Over 20 A-share listed companies, including Whirlpool and Artis, have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate market risks [4] Group 2 - Among the companies, three from Shandong province, including Sanyou and Senqilin, have announced foreign exchange hedging plans with total transaction amounts not exceeding 750 million, 6 billion, and 100 million yuan respectively [4] - Senqilin, the largest among these, aims to lock in costs and reduce financial expenses as it expands its international transactions under its "833plus" strategy [5] - The foreign exchange hedging ratio for Shandong enterprises has increased from 16.83% in 2020 to 30.39% by September 2025, indicating a growing trend among companies to use financial tools for risk management [5] Group 3 - China's foreign trade continues to expand, with total import and export volume reaching 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trading nation [5] - The increasing scale of foreign exchange receipts and payments, coupled with a volatile exchange rate environment, has made foreign exchange hedging a necessary action for many enterprises [5] - The core goal of foreign exchange hedging is to lock in future exchange rates and convert financial uncertainties from exchange rate fluctuations into certainties [6] Group 4 - Experts predict a cautious but optimistic outlook for the yuan in 2026, with expectations of continued appreciation in the first half of the year, but increased uncertainty in the second half due to potential changes in US political and tariff policies [7] - The macro team at Industrial Securities believes that while yuan appreciation is likely to continue, the most aggressive phase may have passed, as the central bank aims to avoid creating expectations of unilateral appreciation [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Qingdao Senqilin Tire Co., Ltd. has experienced a continuous decline in stock price, with a drop of 1.76% on January 14, bringing the total market value to 21.38 billion yuan and a cumulative decline of 6.61% over the past seven days [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of green, safe, high-quality, and high-performance radial tires, with tire sales accounting for 99.83% of its main business revenue [1] - The stock's trading volume on January 14 was 403 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.71% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Europe Fund's "China Europe Times Pioneer Stock A" increased its holdings by 3 million shares in the third quarter, now holding 13 million shares, which is 1.82% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 4.81 million yuan today and a total floating loss of 18.98 million yuan during the seven-day decline [2] - The fund was established on November 3, 2015, with a current scale of 10.069 billion yuan and a year-to-date return of 4.02%, ranking 2979 out of 5520 in its category [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Viewpoints - The EU's anti-dumping measures against Chinese semi-steel tires are expected to be implemented by mid-2026, potentially leading to a demand shift of approximately 8.7 million units overseas. Current Chinese tire manufacturers have an overseas semi-steel tire capacity of only 17.6 million units per year, which is insufficient to meet the combined demand of approximately 25.1 million units from Europe and the US [3][10][76] - The semi-steel tire segment is characterized by strong consumer attributes, making it the most profitable category in the tire industry. The global demand for semi-steel tires is around 1.6 billion units annually, with an average price of $71 per tire, resulting in a market size of $114 billion [6][25] - Chinese semi-steel tire production capacity is projected to reach 82 million units per year by 2024, with an annual output of approximately 64 million units, accounting for about 40% of global supply. Exports constitute about 52% of China's semi-steel tire production [7][41] Summary by Sections EU Anti-Dumping Measures - The EU has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese semi-steel tires, with a final decision expected by June 2026. In 2024, the EU is projected to consume approximately 400 million semi-steel tires, with 90 million units imported from China, representing 60% of non-EU imports [8][59][60] Overseas Expansion of Chinese Tire Companies - Chinese tire manufacturers are increasingly establishing overseas production capacities, with approximately 22.2 million units per year already operational and an additional 28.7 million units planned. The EU's anti-dumping measures are expected to create a capacity gap that will take time to fill [9][68] - The US imports about 164 million semi-steel tires annually, with significant competition expected between the EU and the US for semi-steel tire capacity. The demand from the EU for 8.7 million units per year is likely to shift from China to overseas production [9][71] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities arising from both volume and price increases. Companies with greater marginal increases in overseas capacity and a higher proportion of total capacity in overseas production are expected to benefit more. Recommended companies include Senqilin, Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and Linglong Tire [10][76]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Senqilin Tire Co., Ltd. has adjusted the exercise price of its 2022 stock option incentive plan due to a cash dividend distribution, which will not materially affect the company's financial status or operating results [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 12, 2026, Senqilin's stock closed at 21.25 yuan, down 0.09% from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 22.015 billion yuan [1]. - The stock opened at 21.18 yuan, reached a high of 21.29 yuan, and a low of 20.90 yuan, with a trading volume of 282 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.87% [1]. Group 2: Stock Option Adjustment - The company's board of directors approved the adjustment of the exercise price from 16.47 yuan to 16.17 yuan per share following a cash dividend distribution of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares [1]. - The adjustment has undergone necessary approval procedures and complies with relevant laws and regulations, as well as the company's incentive plan [1].

Group 1: Trading Information - On January 9, 2026, Senqilin (002984) closed at 21.27 yuan, down 0.42%, with a turnover rate of 2.39%, trading volume of 170,600 shares, and a transaction amount of 362 million yuan [1] - On the same day, the net inflow of main funds was 7.73 million yuan, while retail investors had a net inflow of 5.81 million yuan, and speculative funds had a net outflow of 13.54 million yuan [1][5] Group 2: Company Announcements - On January 9, 2026, the company held its fourth board meeting, approving several resolutions, including a financing limit of up to 4 billion yuan for 2026 and a guarantee of up to 2.5 billion yuan for subsidiaries, pending shareholder approval [2] - The company plans to conduct commodity futures hedging with a margin and premium cap of 200 million yuan and to invest up to 2 billion yuan of its own funds in financial products [2][6] - The company will hold its first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on January 26, 2026, to discuss the guarantee for subsidiaries and expected related party transactions, requiring related shareholders to abstain from voting [2] Group 3: Related Party Transactions - The company expects to have related party transactions totaling 810 million yuan in 2026, including 800 million yuan for raw material purchases from Haitailin and 10 million yuan for tire sales and services to Dongli Station [3] - The company plans to provide a total of 2.5 billion yuan in guarantees for subsidiaries, including those with a high debt-to-asset ratio, with all subsidiaries being 100% owned [3] Group 4: Financial Risk Management - The company intends to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate cost and currency fluctuation risks, with a total business scale not exceeding 6 billion yuan and a margin and premium cap of 600 million yuan [4] - The company will also conduct commodity futures hedging to avoid raw material price fluctuations, with a total margin and premium not exceeding 200 million yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Senqilin, announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging activities with a total scale not exceeding 600,000 million RMB or equivalent foreign currency by 2026 [1] Group 1 - The company and its subsidiaries will utilize a maximum of 60,000 million RMB or equivalent foreign currency for transaction margins and premiums [1] - The hedging activities will allow for the amounts to be used in a rolling manner within the specified limits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to engage in commodity futures hedging business by 2026, which includes contracts for natural rubber listed on domestic and Singapore exchanges [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company and its subsidiaries will initiate the commodity futures hedging business, with a focus on natural rubber contracts [1] - The expected maximum utilization of trading margin and option premiums will not exceed 200 million yuan, funded by the company's own resources without involving fundraising [1] - The business is set to commence within 12 months following the board's approval [1] Group 2: Risk Management - This initiative aims to mitigate the impact of raw material price fluctuations [1] - Although there are risks associated with price volatility and funding, the company has implemented corresponding risk control measures [1] - The company ensures that this new business will not affect its main operations and is deemed feasible [1]

Group 1 - The company plans to provide joint liability guarantees for its subsidiaries in 2026, with a total guarantee amount of 2.5 billion RMB [1] - The guarantee scope includes various financing methods such as comprehensive credit applications, loans, trade financing, and project loans [1] - The board of directors will seek authorization from the shareholders' meeting for the chairman or general manager to sign relevant guarantee documents within the approved limit [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, the company's external guarantee balance is approximately 264 million RMB, accounting for 1.96% of the audited net assets for 2024 [2] - After the approval of the new guarantee, the total external guarantee limit will be 2.5 billion RMB, representing 18.53% of the audited net assets for 2024 [2]