Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting potential growth opportunities in renewable energy and natural gas consumption [4][8]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading prices in Q3 compared to Q1. The total issuance of green power certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable [7][8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price reaching a six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [9][11]. - The report anticipates an increase in natural gas consumption in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and expected higher heating demand from a potential La Niña phenomenon [30][31]. Summary by Sections Electricity - The average trading price of green certificates increased by 210% in Q3 compared to Q1. The issuance of green certificates reached 2.29 billion in September 2025, with 1.58 billion being tradable, indicating a robust market growth [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for further development of the green certificate market and the introduction of regulations to enhance renewable energy consumption [4][7]. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the U.S. Henry Hub spot price was $3.57/mmBtu, marking an 11.16% increase week-on-week. In contrast, European gas prices showed a decline, with the TTF spot price at €30.35/MWh, down 5.42% [9][10]. - The report notes a decrease in China's apparent natural gas consumption in September 2025, but anticipates a rebound in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and increased heating demand [30][31]. - The LNG national ex-factory price in China rose to 4407 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.11% increase week-on-week, driven by rising demand ahead of the heating season [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market conditions: - Hydropower: Focus on Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power due to favorable hydrological conditions [8]. - Green Power: Attention to New Energy, Funiu Co., Longyuan Power, and China Resources Power for their stable returns [8]. - Nuclear Power: Recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power due to ongoing approvals for new units [8]. - Thermal Power: Companies like Guodian Power and Huadian International are highlighted for improved profitability due to falling coal prices [8]. - Gas Power: Recommendations for Guangzhou Development and Shenzhen Energy based on expected stability in profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for various sectors including hydropower, green electricity, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas power [4][9][44]. Core Insights - The green certificate market is experiencing a significant increase in both volume and price, with a 210% rise in average trading price in Q3 compared to Q1 [8]. - Global natural gas prices are fluctuating, with the US Henry Hub spot price reaching a near six-month high of $3.57/mmBtu, while European prices are showing mixed trends [11][12]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in gas consumption growth in Q4 2025 due to low base effects and high demand expectations, despite a 1.6% year-on-year decline in September gas consumption [32][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - In September 2025, 229 million green electricity certificates were issued, with 68.86% being tradable [4][8]. - The report highlights the improvement in market mechanisms and the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [8]. 2. Natural Gas - As of October 31, 2025, the US Henry Hub spot price increased by 11.16% week-on-week, while European prices showed a decline [11][12]. - The report notes a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in national gas consumption in September, with expectations for growth in Q4 2025 due to favorable weather conditions [32][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include hydropower companies such as Guotou Power and Chuanwei Energy, green electricity firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, and gas companies including Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the gas sector due to declining costs and rising demand [33][44].

Summary of CGN Power Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CGN Power Co., Ltd (1816.HK) - **Industry**: China Utilities - **Market Cap**: Rmb152,398.1 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$3.17 - **Price Target**: HK$2.81 - **52-Week Range**: HK$3.30 - HK$2.31 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Recurring Net Profit**: Down 8% YoY to Rmb2.57 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of Rmb2.6 billion [2][7] - **Total Gross Profit**: Decreased by 18% YoY in 3Q25, continuing the trend from 1H25 [2] - **Unit Gross Profit**: Rmb0.132/kWh in 3Q25, down 15% YoY [2] - **Revenue**: Rmb20.56 billion in 3Q25, a 7% QoQ increase but a 10% YoY decline [8] - **Net Profit**: Rmb2.624 billion in 3Q25, down 10% YoY [8] Tariff Policy Changes - **Guangdong 2026 Power Tariff Policy**: The variable cost compensation mechanism has been cancelled, which is expected to lead to a rebound in nuclear power market tariffs in Guangdong [3][7] - **Impact of Tariff Changes**: The cancellation of a ~4 cent discount is anticipated to positively affect CGN Power's tariff structure [3] Market Outlook - **Earnings Trend**: The company expects the trend of declining core earnings to continue into 4Q25, influenced by a relatively low base in 2H24 [7] - **Analyst Rating**: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on CGN Power, with an attractive industry view [5] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Include higher-than-expected utilization, upward adjustments of on-grid tariffs, and new project approvals [11] - **Downside Risks**: Include lower-than-expected utilization, downward adjustments of on-grid tariffs, and delays in new project commissioning [11] Valuation Methodology - **P/E Multiple**: A P/E multiple of 13x is applied to the 2025E EPS, with expectations of accelerating trends in new projects compared to previous years [9] Additional Insights - **Gross Margin**: Decreased to 29.8% in 3Q25, down 2.8 percentage points YoY [8] - **Effective Tax Rate**: Increased to 18.1% in 3Q25, up 0.5 percentage points YoY [8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding CGN Power Co., Ltd, highlighting financial performance, tariff policy changes, market outlook, and associated risks.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - The thermal power sector continues to show high growth in performance, with significant improvements in profitability and cash flow [7][10] - The report indicates that the current coal price increase is nearing its end, and the pessimistic expectations for electricity prices are easing [7] - The utility sector is currently undervalued, with a notable decrease in fund holdings, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][14] Summary by Sections Thermal Power Performance - In Q3 2025, the thermal power sector's gross margin reached 18.9%, above the historical average of 17.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percentage points [7][10] - Total revenue for sample companies in Q3 2025 was 314.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.7 billion yuan, an increase of 38.3% [10][12] - The average price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 715 yuan/ton, reflecting a 10.6% increase compared to the previous quarter [7][10] Fund Holdings and Market Performance - As of Q3 2025, the utility sector's fund holdings dropped to 1.15% of total fund equity investments, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points [14] - The utility sector index rose by 0.6% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.0 percentage points [47] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality dividend assets within the utility sector, particularly thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power [7] - Specific stocks recommended include Guodian Power (600795), Huadian International (600027), and Huaneng International (600011) for thermal power [7] - For hydropower, recommended stocks include Yangtze Power (600900) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674) [7]

Group 1 - The company has completed the acquisition of stakes in four nuclear power companies, including 82% of China Guangdong Nuclear Power Huizhou Co., Ltd. and 100% of three other subsidiaries [1][2] - The transaction was approved during the company's shareholder meetings held on October 16, 2025, and the payment for the acquisition was completed by October 31, 2025 [1][2] - Following the completion of the transaction, the acquired companies have become subsidiaries of the company [2]

Group 1 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced the appointment and removal of leadership positions in 11 central enterprises [1] - Pang Songtao has been appointed as the Deputy Secretary and Director of China General Nuclear Power Group, nominated as the candidate for General Manager [3] - Guo Jianhe has been appointed as the Deputy Secretary and Director of China Aneng Construction Group, nominated as the candidate for General Manager [4] Group 2 - Wu Shengyue has been appointed as the Deputy Secretary and Director of China Poly Group, nominated as the candidate for General Manager [5] - Ma Jiru has retired from the position of Chief Accountant at Minmetals Technology Group [6] - Lv Shuzheng has been removed from the position of Deputy Secretary at China Construction Technology Co., Ltd. and has retired [7] Group 3 - Huang Jing'an has retired from the position of Deputy General Manager at China Chengtong Holdings Group [8] - Zhao Rongzhe has been removed from the position of Deputy Secretary and Chief Accountant at China Coal Energy Group and has retired [9] - Shi Yulin has retired from the position of Deputy General Manager at Nanguang Group [10] Group 4 - Shao Lin, Li Shulei, Fan Bing, and Gao Hesheng have been appointed as external directors at China Changan Automobile Group [11] - Dai Deming has been appointed as an external director at China Forestry Group [12] - Li Shaozhu has been appointed as an external director at China Guoxin Holdings [13]

Group 1 - Pang Songtao appointed as Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of China General Nuclear Power Group, nominated as candidate for General Manager [1] - Cai Zhen appointed as member of the Party Committee and nominated as candidate for Deputy General Manager of China General Nuclear Power Group; Gao Ligang removed from his positions and retired [2] - Guo Jianhe appointed as Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of China Aneng Construction Group, nominated as candidate for General Manager [3] Group 2 - Wu Shengyue appointed as Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of China Poly Group, nominated as candidate for General Manager [4] - Ma Jiru no longer serves as Chief Accountant of Minmetals Technology Group and has retired [5] - Wu Shengyue no longer serves as External Director of Minmetals Technology Group [6] Group 3 - Lyu Shuzheng removed from the position of Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee of China Construction Technology Co., Ltd. and has retired [7] - Huang Jing'an no longer serves as Deputy General Manager of China Chengtong Holdings Group and has retired [8] - Zhao Rongzhe removed from the position of member of the Party Committee and Chief Accountant of China Coal Energy Group and has retired [9] Group 4 - Shi Yulin no longer serves as Deputy General Manager of Nanguang Group and has retired [10] - Shao Lin, Li Shulei, Fan Bing, and Gao Hesheng appointed as External Directors of China Changan Automobile Group [11] - Dai Deming appointed as External Director of China Forestry Group [12] Group 5 - Li Shaozhu appointed as External Director of China Guoxin Holdings [14]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) has completed the payment for acquiring an 82% stake in China General Nuclear Huizhou Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. and 100% stakes in China General Nuclear Huizhou Second Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., China General Nuclear Huizhou Third Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., and China General Nuclear Zhanjiang Nuclear Power Co., Ltd. The related companies will become subsidiaries of CGN by October 31, 2025 [1] Group 1 - CGN has finalized the acquisition of significant stakes in multiple nuclear power companies [1] - The transaction enhances CGN's position in the nuclear power sector in China [1] - The acquired companies are set to be integrated into CGN's operations by the end of October 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The profitability of nuclear power companies in China is significantly impacted by the acceleration of market-oriented electricity trading, leading to a decline in net profits for both China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power in the third quarter of 2023 [4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2023, China Nuclear Power's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.42% to 8 billion yuan, while China General Nuclear Power's net profit fell by 14.14% to 8.576 billion yuan [6]. - In Q3 2023, China Nuclear Power's net profit dropped by 23.45% to 2.336 billion yuan, and China General Nuclear Power's net profit decreased by 8.81% to 2.624 billion yuan [6]. Market Impact - The decline in profitability is attributed to the increased participation in market-oriented electricity trading, which has led to a decrease in market electricity prices [6][7]. - The average market electricity price has fallen due to the accelerated construction of a unified national electricity market and increased competition from renewable energy sources [7]. Future Outlook - The transition from planned electricity to market electricity is expected to continue, with market trading volume projected to increase, leading to greater price volatility [9]. - The cancellation of the value-added tax refund policy for newly approved nuclear power units starting in November 2023 may increase tax burdens and cash flow pressures for companies, potentially affecting new project construction and R&D investments [9][10]. Strategic Responses - Nuclear power companies are preparing for market challenges by optimizing their nuclear energy operations and electricity sales [10]. - China Nuclear Power plans to track and study new market trading rules and implement various measures to secure favorable trading conditions [10]. - The company is focusing on cost control in the upstream nuclear fuel supply chain to ensure stable power generation efficiency [10].

| 证券代码：003816 | 证券简称：中国广核 | 公告编号：2025-073 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127110 | 债券简称：广核转债 | | 中国广核电力股份有限公司 关于收购惠州核电等四家公司股权暨关联交易的进展公告 公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、关联交易概述 1.中国广核电力股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2025 年 10 月 16 日召开 2025 年第一次临时股东大会、2025 年第二次 A 股类别股东大会、2025 年第二次 H 股类别股东大会，审议通过《关于收购惠州公司等四家公司股权的议案》， 本公司向中国广核集团有限公司收购其持有的中广核惠州核电有限公司 82%股权、 中广核惠州第二核电有限公司 100%股权、中广核惠州第三核电有限公司 100%股权、 中广核湛江核电有限公司 100%股权（以下简称"本次交易"），交割日为关于本次交 易对价支付完成日所在日历月的最后一个日历日。 详情请见本公司于 2025 年 8 月 27 日和 2025 年 10 月 16 日 ...