Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from major overseas companies is optimistic, with a continuous upward trend in computing power expected through 2026. The total Capex for Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is projected to reach $406.5 billion in 2025 and $596.4 billion in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 46% and 47% respectively [3][5][22] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is driving significant upgrades in interconnects, cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating a long-term growth cycle distinct from previous technology cycles [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Major Companies' Capex Guidance - Major companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase their Capex significantly, with projections of $186.4 billion, $139.5 billion, $162.5 billion, and $108 billion respectively for 2026 [6][7][14][18][21] - The overall Capex for these four companies is expected to account for 62% of the global AI-related Capex, which is projected to reach $960 billion by 2026 [22][23] 2. Interconnect Sector: Optical Modules and PCBs - The interconnect sector is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to AI server cluster construction, leading to simultaneous upgrades in computing boards, switches, and optical modules, which will increase both demand and pricing [3][4] - The deployment of 800G technology is expected to accelerate, with 1.6T technology entering the introduction phase [3] 3. Cooling Sector: Liquid Cooling Demand - The power density of AI GPU racks is projected to rise from 130 kW in 2024 to over 1 MW by 2029, making liquid cooling technology essential [3][4] 4. Power Supply Sector: AIDC Power Distribution Evolution - The evolution of AIDC power distribution methods is crucial, with a focus on HVDC and SST technologies to enhance system efficiency and reduce energy losses [3][4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within various sectors: - Computing power: Haiguang Information - Interconnects - Optical modules: LightSpeed Technology, Huagong Technology - Interconnects - PCBs: Shenghong Technology, Shennan Circuits, and others - Cooling: Invec - Power supply: Magpow [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant changes in the investment strategies of Ruiyuan Fund's star fund managers, with notable adjustments in stock holdings and performance metrics for the fourth quarter of 2025. Group 1: Fund Performance and Adjustments - Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund experienced a net redemption of 136.2 million shares, marking the second-highest redemption in its history, with total net assets decreasing from 23.629 billion yuan to 21.087 billion yuan [3][4] - The fund's stock allocation increased slightly from 89.93% to 90.48%, while the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in the fund's net value decreased from 27.92% to 20.14% [3][4] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund's stock allocation reached a three-year high of 90.66%, with a slight increase in the proportion of Hong Kong stocks to 41.99% [10] Group 2: Stock Holdings and Changes - The top ten holdings of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund included New Yisheng, Shenghong Technology, and Ningde Times, with New Yisheng seeing a 22.73% reduction in holdings [4][5] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund saw significant changes, with the re-entry of Midea Group into the top ten holdings and reductions in holdings of companies like Lixun Precision and China Ping An [10][12] - The fund managers noted a shift in focus towards sectors like photovoltaic and semiconductor high-end equipment manufacturing, while reducing exposure to companies with weak fundamentals [6][10] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The fund managers expressed optimism about the market, anticipating that the return on equity assets will remain attractive compared to other asset classes, with potential returns exceeding 10% for leading companies [11][13] - They plan to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, particularly those expanding overseas, as this is expected to drive future growth [13][14] - The report indicates a structural market environment with limited risks of significant downturns, while opportunities for excess returns remain [8][13]

Summary of Conference Call on China PCB Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) industry in China, particularly in relation to AI infrastructure and its growth potential [1][2]. Key Trends and Insights - **Higher Speed and Capacity Expansion**: The demand for higher speed connections (800G / 1.6T) in AI servers is driving an increase in PCB and CCL dollar content. This is coupled with a significant ramp-up in AI server production, leading to overall growth in the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for PCBs and CCLs [1][2]. - **Revenue Growth**: Revenue growth for companies like Victory Giant, WUS, and Shengyi Tech is projected to increase from an average of +2% in 2022 to +58% YoY in 9M25, driven by the AI infrastructure cycle [2]. - **Future Projections**: The expected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for net income (NI) for Victory Giant, WUS, and Shengyi Tech from 2026 to 2028 is forecasted at 57%, 47%, and 50% respectively, with operating profit margins (OPM) expanding to 33%, 26%, and 20% by 2028 [2]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Dynamics**: There is a debate among investors regarding the maturity of the AI infrastructure market, which could lead to slower growth and increased competition. However, the report argues that ongoing specification upgrades and the transition from copper cables to PCBs in AI servers will mitigate competitive intensity [3]. - **Customer Base Expansion**: The shift from GPU AI server clients to ASIC AI server clients is expected to increase, supported by local customer growth and strong commitments from Chinese suppliers to R&D and capacity expansion [2][3]. Financial Highlights - **Valuation and Price Targets**: - Victory Giant is initiated with a Buy rating and a target price (TP) of Rmb550, reflecting a 26.3x 2027E PE ratio and an expected +57% NI YoY growth on average in 2027-28E [36]. - WUS and Shengyi Tech are also rated Buy with target prices of Rmb127 and Rmb111 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [8]. - **Risks**: Key downside risks include slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up, increased competition, and delays in new capacity expansion [8]. Operational Efficiency - **R&D and Automation**: The companies are heavily investing in R&D and automation, which is expected to enhance yield rates, operational efficiency, and fast delivery times [37][40]. - **Financial Metrics**: The report anticipates a gross margin increase from 36% in 2025E to 42% in 2030E, driven by a product mix upgrade towards AI server PCBs [41]. Conclusion - The China PCB and CCL industry is poised for significant growth driven by the AI infrastructure boom, with key players like Victory Giant, WUS, and Shengyi Tech expected to benefit from rising demand, specification upgrades, and operational efficiencies. The overall sentiment is positive, with strong revenue and profit growth projections despite potential competitive challenges.

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01% on January 20, with 20 industries rising, led by the oil and petrochemical sector with a gain of 1.74% and construction materials at 1.71% [1] - The telecommunications and defense industries experienced the largest declines, down 3.23% and 2.87% respectively [1] - The electronic industry also saw a decrease of 1.23% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 95.723 billion yuan, with 11 industries experiencing net inflows [1] - The banking sector led the net inflow with 1.472 billion yuan, resulting in a 0.80% increase, followed by the real estate sector with a 1.55% rise and a net inflow of 627 million yuan [1] - The power equipment industry had the highest net outflow, totaling 19.054 billion yuan, followed by the electronic industry with an outflow of 18.394 billion yuan [1] Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic industry saw a decline of 1.23%, with a total net outflow of 18.394 billion yuan [2] - Out of 476 stocks in the electronic sector, 160 stocks rose, 5 hit the daily limit up, while 314 stocks fell, with 1 hitting the daily limit down [2] - Notable inflows included Tongfu Microelectronics with a net inflow of 431 million yuan, followed by Lanke Technology and Wolong Nuclear Materials with inflows of 345 million yuan and 332 million yuan respectively [2] Top Gainers in Electronic Industry - The top gainers in the electronic sector included: - Tongfu Microelectronics: +5.85%, turnover rate 13.22%, net inflow 431.18 million yuan - Lanke Technology: +2.95%, turnover rate 5.44%, net inflow 345.32 million yuan - Wolong Nuclear Materials: +3.13%, turnover rate 15.24%, net inflow 332.48 million yuan [2] Top Losers in Electronic Industry - The top losers in the electronic sector included: - Shenghong Technology: -5.07%, net outflow -1.858 billion yuan - Cambricon Technologies: -5.40%, net outflow -1.703 billion yuan - Industrial Fulian: -2.02%, net outflow -1.021 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and renewable energy sectors, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - The top stock with the largest fund outflow is Xinye Technology, with a decrease of 20.21 billion yuan and a drop of 5.01% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang follows with an outflow of 18.09 billion yuan and a decline of 3.22% [2] - Yangguang Electric Power experienced an outflow of 15.07 billion yuan, with a decrease of 5.25% [2] - Shenghong Technology saw a fund outflow of 14.52 billion yuan and a drop of 5.02% [2] - China Satellite had an outflow of 13.92 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 7.84% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is notably affected, with multiple companies like Xinye Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Fenghuo Communication experiencing substantial fund outflows [2][3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Yangguang Electric Power and Longi Green Energy, also shows significant outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The electronic components sector, including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co., is facing similar trends with notable fund withdrawals [2][3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shenghong Technology's stock price dropped by 5.11% to 261.41 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 5.189 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.27%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 227.518 billion CNY [1] - Shenghong Technology, established on July 28, 2006, and listed on June 11, 2015, is primarily engaged in the research, development, production, and sales of new electronic devices, specifically printed circuit boards (PCBs), which account for 93.66% of its main business revenue [1] - The company is located in Huizhou, Guangdong Province, and its other business activities contribute 6.34% to its revenue [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under China Merchants Asset Management has a significant position in Shenghong Technology, with the China Merchants Asset Management CSI 500 Index Enhanced Fund A (023192) reducing its holdings by 800 shares to a total of 1,000 shares, representing 2.09% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has experienced a floating loss of approximately 14,100 CNY due to the recent stock price decline [2] - The China Merchants Asset Management CSI 500 Index Enhanced Fund A was established on January 16, 2025, with a current scale of 12.8707 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 9.94%, ranking 1181 out of 5542 in its category [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a mixed performance last week, with major indices showing varied results: CSI 300 down 0.57%, CSI 500 up 2.18%, CSI 1000 up 1.27%, ChiNext 50 up 0.80%, and Sci-Tech 50 up 2.58% [1][10] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 3.4 trillion yuan, indicating high investor enthusiasm [1][10] - Key market hotspots included AI applications, commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, AI healthcare, power grid equipment, computing hardware, tourism and hotels, and non-ferrous metals, showcasing rapid rotation and localized activity [1][10] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on sectors supported by policy and experiencing a rebound in sentiment, particularly growth assets with performance backing, such as those in AI applications and AI healthcare [1][10] ChiNext 50 Index Insights - The ChiNext 50 Index serves as a direct financing platform for innovative and entrepreneurial companies, focusing on "three innovations (innovation, creation, creativity)" and "four new (new technologies, new industries, new business formats, new models)" [1][10] - The index emphasizes four key sectors: information technology, new energy, financial technology, and pharmaceuticals, reflecting a pure technology growth attribute [1][10] Sector Analysis Technology, AI, and Communication - The ChiNext 50 Index includes 52% of the information technology sector, with a recent surge in AI applications [3][12] - Notable developments include Alibaba's new Qianwen App integrating with its ecosystem for a seamless shopping experience and OpenAI's announcement of testing advertising features in the U.S. [3][12] - The long-term outlook for AI models and ecosystem collaboration is expected to open new commercial avenues, with increasing penetration in e-commerce, healthcare, and manufacturing [3][12] New Energy and Photovoltaics - The power equipment sector received significant positive news as the State Grid announced a projected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [4][12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized accelerating breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology, with multiple companies investing in related materials [4][12] - The substantial investment by the State Grid is anticipated to enhance new energy consumption capacity, leading to a potential explosion in new energy installations [4][12] Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology - The recent JPM Healthcare Conference highlighted several Chinese pharmaceutical companies, showcasing their R&D and operational progress to the international market [5][14] - The innovative drug sector is experiencing multiple catalysts, including corporate collaborations and advancements in technology, which are boosting market sentiment [5][14] - The global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs is strengthening, with ongoing internationalization and gradual realization of commercial profits [5][14] ChiNext 50 ETF Overview - The ChiNext 50 ETF (code: 159949) tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, focusing on high-quality leading companies in five key technology sectors: new energy vehicles, biomedicine, electronics, photovoltaics, and internet finance [6][15] - The ETF has a robust liquidity profile, with an average daily trading volume of 1.505 billion yuan over the past year, ranking among the top ETFs on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [6][15] - The latest fund size is 26.981 billion yuan, making it one of the largest funds tracking the ChiNext-related indices [6][15]

Summary of Victory Giant (300476.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Victory Giant (VGT) - **Ticker**: 300476.SZ - **Industry**: Technology, specifically PCB (Printed Circuit Board) manufacturing - **Headquarters**: Huizhou, Guangdong, China - **Main Applications**: AI servers, network equipment, automotive, consumer electronics, healthcare appliances [11][28] Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Forecasts - **Revenue and Earnings Adjustments**: - FY25F revenue forecast slightly lowered by 1% to CNY19,698 million, and earnings forecast reduced by 2% to CNY4,740 million due to slower capacity ramp-up in Q4 FY25F [1][14] - FY26-27F revenue forecasts increased by 5-17% and earnings forecasts raised by 9-22% reflecting higher value content from existing customers and new customer acquisitions [1][14] - **Target Price**: - Target price cut to CNY333, implying an 18% upside, based on a P/E ratio of 35x FY26F EPS of CNY9.51, aligning with historical median P/E [1][19] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately USD 35.2 billion [6][28] Market Dynamics - **AI and PCB Demand**: - VGT is expected to benefit significantly from the HDI PCB upgrade driven by global AI customers, with a key AI customer projected to contribute over 40% of total revenue in FY26-27F [2][19] - Revenue CAGRs estimated at 84% for HDI and 36% for HLC segments over FY25-27F [2] Supply Chain Management - **Component Shortages**: - Ongoing shortages in components and equipment due to high demand for AI PCBs, including high-end copper foil and laser drilling equipment [3] - VGT's effective supply chain management and strong relationships with global suppliers position the company favorably to mitigate these shortages [3] Financial Metrics - **Earnings Growth**: - Normalized EPS growth projected at 310.6% for FY25 and 73.2% for FY26 [4][15] - **Profit Margins**: - Gross profit margin expected to improve to 35.3% in FY26 and 38.6% in FY27 [4][15] - **Debt Management**: - Net debt/equity ratio projected to decrease to 26.5% in FY25F and net cash position by FY27F [4][10] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: - Key customers diversifying supply chains and increased competition from peers [20][30] - Potential technological changes (e.g., COWOP) that could alter the competitive landscape [20][30] - Slower technology upgrades in the AI PCB market and geopolitical tensions [20][30] ESG Considerations - VGT's role in providing electronic products for data centers and AI infrastructure highlights its social responsibility, though environmental impacts from manufacturing processes are noted [13] Conclusion Victory Giant is positioned as a leading player in the PCB manufacturing sector, particularly benefiting from the AI technology upgrade trend. Despite some adjustments in revenue and earnings forecasts, the company maintains a positive growth outlook driven by strong demand and effective supply chain management. However, it faces risks from market competition and technological changes that could impact its future performance.

Group 1 - Several A-share listed companies in the semiconductor industry have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a recovery in the sector [1][3] - Jin Haitong expects a net profit of 160 million to 210 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 103.87% to 167.58%, driven by increasing demand in semiconductor packaging and testing equipment [1] - Lanke Technology anticipates a net profit of 2.15 billion to 2.35 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth of 52.29% to 66.46%, benefiting from the booming AI industry and increased shipment of interconnect chips [2] Group 2 - Baiwei Storage forecasts a net profit of 850 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant growth of 427.19% to 520.22%, supported by rapid growth in AI-related business and advancements in packaging capabilities [2] - Yongxi Electronics expects a net profit of 75 million to 100 million yuan for 2025, with a growth of 13.08% to 50.77%, as production capacity and utilization rates for wafer-level products continue to improve [2] - Shenghong Technology predicts a net profit of 4.16 billion to 4.56 billion yuan for 2025, showing a growth of 260.35% to 295.00%, driven by large-scale production of high-end products in AI computing and data centers [3] Group 3 - TCL Technology forecasts a net profit of 4.21 billion to 4.55 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 169% to 191%, maintaining competitive advantages in large-size products while rapidly growing in the small and medium-size market [3] - The positive earnings forecasts across various segments of the semiconductor industry indicate a recovery and an upward trend in the sector, providing development dividends for companies [3] - Experts emphasize the need for semiconductor companies to adapt to new market trends driven by AI, increase R&D investment, enhance innovation capabilities, and improve global competitiveness [3]

Group 1 - 15 stocks received buy ratings from institutions today, with South China Precision and Shenling Environment being newly covered by institutions [1] - Among the stocks rated, Siyi Electric and Shenghong Technology received the highest attention, each with 2 buy ratings [1] - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings was 0.71%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with notable gainers including Jianghuai Automobile, Longxin General, and South China Precision [1] Group 2 - Seven stocks among those rated have released annual performance forecasts, with Shenghong Technology expecting a net profit growth of 277.68%, followed by WuXi AppTec and Longxin General with expected growths of 102.65% and 53.84% respectively [1] - The automotive industry is the most favored, with four stocks including Jianghuai Automobile and BYD listed among the buy-rated stocks, while the pharmaceutical and machinery sectors also received attention with two stocks each [1]