Group 1 - Goldman Sachs is retracting its Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies, signaling a shift back to a merit-based system for board qualifications [1][2][3] - The company previously implemented DEI tests for the boards of companies it financed, indicating a strong commitment to these policies [3] - There is skepticism about whether the abandonment of DEI criteria is genuine or if it will be replaced with similar initiatives under different names [4] Group 2 - The discussion highlights a broader trend among firms feeling empowered to move away from previously established DEI practices [4] - The emphasis on meritocracy raises questions about the long-term sustainability of this approach within corporate governance [1][2] - The sentiment reflects a desire for qualified individuals to lead businesses without the influence of gender or race considerations [1][2]

Core Insights - The NYSE is developing a blockchain-powered platform for 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks and ETFs, moving away from traditional trading hours [1] - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon emphasized the importance of tokenization in evolving markets and indicated that the firm may reassess its stance on digital assets as regulatory environments change [2][3] - Solomon also noted that traditional banks and crypto are not in a zero-sum competition, highlighting a growing acceptance of tokenization within Wall Street [7] Group 1: Tokenization and Market Evolution - The NYSE has created tokenization technology and is collaborating with regulators to integrate it into the existing financial framework [2] - Solomon stated that the evolution of markets is increasingly influenced by large-scale technology platforms, with tokenization playing a central role [3] - The NYSE's upcoming blockchain platform aims to facilitate continuous trading, which could enhance market efficiency [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Financial System - Solomon criticized excessive regulations for extracting capital from the financial system, which he believes has negatively impacted market efficiency over the past five years [2] - The current regulatory climate may provide banks with more flexibility to engage with digital assets, prompting Goldman Sachs to reconsider its approach [2] - CFTC Chairman Michael Selig expressed a willingness to collaborate with both established and new market participants to develop innovative financial tools [1]

Group 1 - Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller is increasing his investments in Alphabet (GOOGL) by 277% to 385,000 shares and Amazon (AMZN) by 69% to 737,940 shares [1] - Druckenmiller has completely exited positions in Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Capital One (COF), selling 989,250 shares of BAC, 514,850 shares of C, and 43,920 shares of COF [2] - Other notable stocks sold by Druckenmiller include Meta Platforms (META), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) [2] Group 2 - New acquisitions by Druckenmiller include Delta Air Lines (DAL), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Zillow (Z) [3] - The Duquesne Family Office's total worth is just under $4.5 billion, an increase of nearly $500 million from the previous quarter [3]

报告引用彭博与高盛的数据称，作为最大黄金ETF的GLD，其看涨期权未平仓量（扣除看跌期权后）处于纪录水平，成为波动上行的重要"代理指 标"。 机制上，高盛表示，金价走高时，卖出看涨期权的交易商为了维持对冲被迫买入黄金，放大上涨；而一旦出现哪怕不大的回调，交易商对冲行为 可能反向，从"追涨买入"切换为"下跌卖出"，并可能触发投资者止损出局，导致进一步损失。高盛提醒，类似的"止损踩踏"在1月下旬曾出现过。 黄金市场的主导变量正在从"买不买"转向"波动有多大"。高盛认为，私营部门通过黄金看涨期权结构表达的多元化需求推升了金价波动，并在短 期内压制了央行购金节奏，但这一下降应是暂时的。 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在本周报告中指出，看涨期权需求上升迫使卖出期权的交易商在上涨过程中被动买入黄金对冲，从而机械 性放大涨幅。更关键的是，即便只是小幅回调，也可能促使交易商从"逢高买入"切换为"逢低卖出"，进而触发投资者止损单并导致进一步损失， 高盛称这一链条在1月下旬已有所体现。 在波动抬升的背景下，央行需求出现放缓，2025年12月为22吨，而目前12个月平均值为52吨。高盛强调，央行仍愿意 ...

黄金市场的主导变量正在从"买不买"转向"波动有多大"。高盛认为，私营部门通过黄金看涨期权结构表达的多元化需求推升了金价波动，并在短 期内压制了央行购金节奏，但这一下降应是暂时的。 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在本周报告中指出，看涨期权需求上升迫使卖出期权的交易商在上涨过程中被动买入黄金对冲，从而机械 性放大涨幅。更关键的是，即便只是小幅回调，也可能促使交易商从"逢高买入"切换为"逢低卖出"，进而触发投资者止损单并导致进一步损失， 高盛称这一链条在1月下旬已有所体现。 在波动抬升的背景下，央行需求出现放缓，2025年12月为22吨，而目前12个月平均值为52吨。高盛强调，央行仍愿意为对冲地缘政治与金融风险 而买入黄金，但倾向于在价格波动回落后再恢复采购，因此放缓更像"等待波动收敛"，而非趋势性转向。 对投资者而言，这意味着短期下行尾部风险上升。高盛提示，在期权需求回到纪录水平后，一些通常只会带来温和回撤的催化剂，也可能引发更 大幅度的金价回撤，估算的下行边界在4,700美元/盎司附近。但在中期，高盛仍重申看多黄金，基准情景下预计金价到2026年底缓慢上行至5,400 美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the proposed U.S. strategic copper reserve plan could lead to a reduction in metal inventory, resulting in an upward risk to their forecast of $11,200 per ton for copper prices in Q4 2026 [2] - The implementation of the reserve plan is expected to absorb most of the projected global copper surplus of 300,000 tons in 2026, shifting the market from oversupply to supply-demand balance [2] - The "Project Vault" announced by President Trump aims to establish a critical mineral reserve to support the U.S. automotive industry, targeting a 60-day supply of minerals for emergencies [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the U.S. reserves 60 days of critical metals, the reserves for copper and aluminum alone could account for about half of the total capital required for the "Project Vault" [3] - While the U.S. could potentially stockpile all 60 critical minerals, the reserves may be concentrated in smaller markets with high import dependence, such as heavy rare earths, rather than being evenly distributed across all commodities [3] Group 3 - As the largest copper consumer globally, the Chinese industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [4]

高盛认为经济周期尚早但部分标的的市场估值过高， 预计AI与科技股高位震荡，资金持续涌向"便宜"的周期性资产。 投资者应警惕高估值板块，拥抱受益复 苏的新兴市场与旧经济板块，以分散配置应对未来的波动分化。 对投资者而言，这创造了明确的投资方向， 拥抱那些受益于经济复苏但估值仍然便宜的周期性资产，同时警惕已经涨幅过大的AI和大型科技股。 具体来看，新兴市场股票、澳元、铜以及美股中的资本品和材料板块大幅上涨，而此前领涨的AI/大型科技主题则遭遇剧烈波动。 高盛认为这场周期性轮动还 有继续的空间。 经济数据依然坚挺：市场低估了增长前景 增长数据继续支撑周期性资产的表现。 美国ISM指数在过去几个月持续上升，数据意外指数转为正值，劳动力市场也在企稳。 从全球来看，1月发达市场制造业PMI达到过去一年的最高水平，新兴市场制造业PMI也环比上升。 高盛数据显示， 市场对美国经济增长的定价仍低于其2.5%的全年预测。这意味着市场仍有进一步上调周期性预期的空间。 更重要的是，除了美国金融条件放松和财政支持之外， 德国财政支出正在推动德国工业动能回升， 而日本自民党在选举中获得压倒性胜利后，财政支持也将 得到加强。 不只是周期： ...

Core Insights - The performance of large-cap mutual funds has improved significantly as many fund managers have reduced their exposure to large technology stocks, with nearly 60% of these funds outperforming their benchmarks, the highest rate since 2007 [1][11] - The S&P 500 index has seen a reshuffling of winners and losers, with technology stocks declining over 4%, while energy and materials sectors have risen by at least 15% [1][11] - The volatility in the market is largely attributed to the potential disruption caused by artificial intelligence (AI) across various industries, leading to significant declines in software companies and other sectors [1][11] Group 1 - Many active fund managers are not necessarily anti-tech; they are reluctant to pay high premiums for crowded large-cap and software stocks, and strategies that diversify away from tech have started to yield returns [2][12] - The market breadth, which measures how many stocks are participating in the rally, has become increasingly important for fund managers, with about 66% of S&P 500 constituents currently above their 100-day moving average [5][14] - The dispersion, or the gap between the best and worst-performing stocks in the benchmark index, has widened to 41 percentage points, placing it in the 93rd percentile since 1980 [8][17] Group 2 - Since 1990, market breadth and return dispersion have been the two most important drivers of mutual fund performance [10][19] - Active funds have benefited from the dramatic rotation in the stock market, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 index reaching a record high recently [5][14] - Fund managers who have consistently reduced their exposure to technology stocks since early 2024 are seeing timely returns as the performance divergence expands, particularly in the software sector [8][17]

增长数据继续支撑周期性资产的表现。 美国ISM指数在过去几个月持续上升，数据意外指数转为正 值，劳动力市场也在企稳。 高盛报告揭示2026年市场新风向：周期性资产上涨仍有空间；但AI等热门主题估值过高，高波动或成 为未来常态；美元将持续疲软；建议警惕高估值板块，分散股票持仓、保持健康的非美敞口（包括新兴 市场），以及较长期限指数波动率的做多头寸。 高盛认为经济周期尚早但部分标的的市场估值过高， 预计AI与科技股高位震荡，资金持续涌向"便 宜"的周期性资产。 投资者应警惕高估值板块，拥抱受益复苏的新兴市场与旧经济板块，以分散配置 应对未来的波动分化。 高盛2月19日发布报告《全球市场观点：周期顺风，估值逆风》，指出2026年全球市场的核心矛盾： 经济周期尚早，但市场周期已晚。这意味着尽管 宏观经济数据持续走强，但部分股票和信贷市场 的"高估值"已成为脆弱点。 对投资者而言，这创造了明确的投资方向， 拥抱那些受益于经济复苏但估值仍然便宜的周期性资产， 同时警惕已经涨幅过大的AI和大型科技股。 具体来看，新兴市场股票、澳元、铜以及美股中的资本品和材料板块大幅上涨，而此前领涨的AI/大型 科技主题则遭遇剧烈波动。 高 ...

1月份日债收益率飙升，吸引海外资金流入。据日本证券交易协会数据，1月日债净购买额达6.04万亿日 元，仅次于2023年3月创下的6.08万亿日元纪录。 资金流入短期推升日元走强，但高盛认为只要宏观大环境保持风险偏好、利率差异维持稳定且财政扩张 计划继续推进，日元的贬值压力就将持续存在。 据追风交易台，高盛在2月19日发布报告《日本资金回流值得关注哪些方面？》。报告指出最新的官方 数据没有迹象表明日本资金正在大规模抛售海外资产并回流国内，押注日本资产将迎来重大资金转向的 投资者大概率会面临失望。 具体来看，散户和非对冲投资者（如养老金）并未改变其行为模式。以NISA（日本个人储蓄账户）为 代表的散户资金在2026年1月继续通过投资信托强劲买入外国股票。 对于非对冲投资者而言，当前的日美利差仍然过大，不足以触发大规模的债券回流。像GPIF（日本政 府养老投资基金）这样的巨头，在2030年或下一次定期战略审查之前，不太可能做出重大配置调整。 对冲投资者（主要是银行）的动向虽然可能对日元构成一定支撑，但力度有限。反直觉的是，目前随着 大多数发达市场央行降息而日本央行加息，对于对冲投资者来说，日债的相对吸引力由于对冲成 ...