格隆汇2月17日｜上周，对冲基金资金大量涌入亚洲新兴市场和发达市场，净买入规模创下了高盛集团 大宗经纪交易台自2016年有记录以来的最高水平。该地区正受益于投资者对人工智能基础设施企业的乐 观情绪。该机构的一份报告显示，对冲基金三周来首次成为全球股票的净买入者，资金涌入所有主要市 场，而亚洲的表现尤为突出。随着投资者从追逐趋势的策略中轮动出来，同时美元走软，新兴市场继续 跑赢大盘。高盛交易台在给客户的一份报告中指出，上周亚洲市场的交易活动主要由多头买入驱动，其 规模与空头回补之比达到8.4比1。 ...

American households are feeling the squeeze, and Goldman Sachs says the pressure is structural, not temporary. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a new report that shows credit card balances jumped by $44 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing total credit card debt to $1.28 trillion. Mortgage balances rose even faster, climbing $98 billion to reach $13.2 trillion. Taken together, the figures point to a broader issue that Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist David Mericle is calling an ...

来源：环球市场播报 上周，对冲基金对亚洲新兴和发达市场的净买入规模创下高盛Prime Services交易台自2016年开始追踪 该数据以来的最高纪录，该地区受益于市场对人工智能基础设施企业的乐观预期。 MSCI新兴市场指数年内累计上涨11%，韩国Kospi指数飙升逾30% —— 三星电子和SK海力士等主要制 造商功不可没。相比之下，截至上周五收盘，标普500指数微跌0.1%。 高盛交易部门在致客户报告中指出，上周亚洲市场行情主要由多头买盘驱动，多头买盘与空头回补的比 例高达8.4：1。 就全球板块而言，该交易台表示，信息技术、工业、必需消费品和材料板块的买盘量超过了其他所有领 域的卖盘量。可选消费品、通信服务和金融板块的抛售最为激烈。 该交易部门报告显示，上周对冲基金成为全球股票净买方，这是三周以来的首次，资金涌入所有主要市 场 —— 但亚洲尤为突出。随着投资者轮换退出动量趋势，同时对美元走弱作出反应，新兴市场持续跑 赢。 ...

高盛交易部门指出，受人工智能基础设施企业乐观情绪推动，上周对冲基金对亚洲新兴及发达市场实现 了2016年以来最大规模净买入。对冲基金上周为全球股票净买家，资金流入所有主要市场，新兴市场表 现持续领跑。信息技术、工业、必需消费品及原材料板块的买入量远超其他领域，而非必需消费品、通 信服务及金融板块遭大幅抛售。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs (GS) has shown a downtrend recently, losing 5.9% over the past four weeks, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a potential bottom in a downtrend, characterized by a small candle body and a long lower wick, suggesting that bears may be losing control [4][5]. - This pattern can occur across various timeframes and is utilized by both short-term and long-term investors [5]. Fundamental Analysis - There has been an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions for GS, which is a bullish indicator suggesting potential price appreciation [7]. - The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 1.1% over the last 30 days, indicating analysts' agreement on improved earnings potential [8]. - GS currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which typically outperform the market [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Asian markets, particularly South Korea and Japan, have significantly outperformed the U.S. equity market in 2026, with Goldman Sachs indicating that they have further potential for rallying [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen a slight decline of 0.14% in 2026, contrasting sharply with the strong performance of certain Asian markets [1]. - South Korea's KOSPI index has been notably boosted by the surge in SK Hynix's stock, highlighting the strength of the technology sector in the region [1]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Tony Pasquariello, the global head of hedge-fund coverage at Goldman Sachs, describes the performance of Asian markets as "bangers," suggesting a positive outlook for continued growth [1].

高盛策略师预测，受英国央行降息推动，2026年英国国债将上涨，政府借贷成本将降至2024年以来最低 水平。 该行欧洲高级市场策略师George Cole表示，基准10年期英国国债收益率预计将到今年底达到4%。他认 为，40个基点的降幅基于通胀回落促使英央行采取行动，其影响将盖过政治风险引发的担忧。 Cole在致客户报告中称，"尽管英国风险溢价和政治不确定性可能在即将举行的地方选举期间持续居高 不下，但我们认为有利的宏观环境将推动国债收益率走低。" 由于顽固通胀使英国央行决策者在降息方面保持谨慎，英国的借贷成本高于其他国家。投资者还担心该 国的财政状况，本月早些时候，由于首相基尔·斯塔默面临被迫下台的风险，而潜在接替者可能会寻求 更多借款，英国国债收益率一度飙升。 Cole表示，随着5月地方选举临近，政治不确定性持续存在，预计斯塔默领导的工党将表现不佳，这可 能使风险溢价维持在较高水平。不过，他指出，这些波动平均仅推动债券收益率上升30个基点，且此类 波动通常持续时间较短。 由于顽固通胀使英国央行决策者在降息方面保持谨慎，英国的借贷成本高于其他国家。投资者还担心该 国的财政状况，本月早些时候，由于首相基尔·斯塔 ...

高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道，鉴于泰国第四季度增长势头稳健，泰国央行在第一季度可能会维持政 策利率不变。第四季度GDP同比增长2.5%，增幅高于第三季度的1.2%。这些经济学家称："最新公布的 数据明显好于预期，超过了平均预期，甚至超过了我们1.8%的预测上限。"展望未来，受项目储备强劲 等因素推动，泰国的投资势头可能保持强劲。高盛维持其对泰国央行在第一季度将维持利率不变、然后 在第二季度降息的预期。 ...

高盛分析师在一份报告中称，当前的日本国债收益率曲线不再包含任何"国家风险溢价"。他们称，10年 至30年期国债部分现已回归合理价值，而2年至10年期国债收益率曲线仅比合理水平陡峭10-15个基点。 他们称，"不确定性的消除本身可能就足以消除一些长端风险溢价"。然而，这些分析师称，上周的价格 走势"似乎已经超出了这单一因素的影响，让市场更倾向于相信政府和日本央行有能力解决'不良'的财 政尾部风险"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The compensation for CEOs of major U.S. banks has returned to pre-financial crisis levels, with annual total pay exceeding $40 million, surpassing records set in 2006 and 2021 [1][2]. Group 1: CEO Compensation Trends - The annual total compensation for CEOs of the six largest U.S. banks has reached or exceeded $40 million, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [1][2]. - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan's compensation rose by 17% year-over-year to $41 million, while Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser's pay increased by 22% to $42 million [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's 2025 compensation is set at $47 million, the highest among peers, reflecting a 21% increase [2]. Group 2: Profitability and Performance - The rise in CEO compensation is directly linked to improved industry profitability, with top U.S. financial institutions reporting their largest annual profits since 2021 [3]. - Increased activity in trading, lending, and mergers and acquisitions has contributed to enhanced performance and bonus pools [3]. Group 3: Governance and Retention Strategies - Some pay increases signal governance confidence, such as Citigroup's raise for Jane Fraser, viewed as a vote of trust from the board after years of underperformance [4]. - Goldman Sachs' compensation discussions focus on retention, with significant bonuses aimed at keeping key executives amid competition from private equity investors [4]. - Compensation structures often include stock-based payments, aligning executive interests with those of shareholders [4]. Group 4: Shareholder Sentiment and Cost Concerns - Despite some opposition, CEO compensation plans generally pass shareholder votes without major obstacles [5]. - There is growing scrutiny on costs and compensation, particularly with the rise of artificial intelligence, leading to increased questioning of how banks will manage expenses while pursuing revenue growth [5]. - Investors are likely to monitor both the return of high salaries and the emphasis on cost control in upcoming earnings seasons and compensation votes [5].