Core Insights - The performance of large-cap mutual funds has improved significantly as many fund managers have reduced their exposure to large technology stocks, with nearly 60% of these funds outperforming their benchmarks, the highest rate since 2007 [1][11] - The S&P 500 index has seen a reshuffling of winners and losers, with technology stocks declining over 4%, while energy and materials sectors have risen by at least 15% [1][11] - The volatility in the market is largely attributed to the potential disruption caused by artificial intelligence (AI) across various industries, leading to significant declines in software companies and other sectors [1][11] Group 1 - Many active fund managers are not necessarily anti-tech; they are reluctant to pay high premiums for crowded large-cap and software stocks, and strategies that diversify away from tech have started to yield returns [2][12] - The market breadth, which measures how many stocks are participating in the rally, has become increasingly important for fund managers, with about 66% of S&P 500 constituents currently above their 100-day moving average [5][14] - The dispersion, or the gap between the best and worst-performing stocks in the benchmark index, has widened to 41 percentage points, placing it in the 93rd percentile since 1980 [8][17] Group 2 - Since 1990, market breadth and return dispersion have been the two most important drivers of mutual fund performance [10][19] - Active funds have benefited from the dramatic rotation in the stock market, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 index reaching a record high recently [5][14] - Fund managers who have consistently reduced their exposure to technology stocks since early 2024 are seeing timely returns as the performance divergence expands, particularly in the software sector [8][17]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs report indicates that while cyclical assets have room for growth, valuations of popular themes like AI are too high, leading to increased volatility as a new norm. The dollar is expected to remain weak, and investors are advised to be cautious of overvalued sectors, diversify stock holdings, maintain healthy non-USD exposure (including emerging markets), and take long positions on longer-term index volatility [1][3]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, with the US ISM index rising consistently over the past few months, and the labor market stabilizing [5]. - Global manufacturing PMIs reached their highest levels in a year, with emerging market PMIs also showing month-on-month increases. Market pricing for US economic growth is still below the 2.5% annual forecast, indicating potential for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [6]. Shift to Cyclical and Value Assets - The market is witnessing a shift from expensive tech stocks to cheaper cyclical assets, particularly benefiting from the economic recovery. Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and large tech themes have experienced volatility [3][7]. AI Sector Volatility - The AI sector is facing increased challenges, with market valuations for companies involved in AI being overly optimistic. Despite the genuine productivity gains from AI, the focus on debt financing and capital expenditures is rising, leading to significant market reactions and volatility within AI-related stocks [8][9]. Currency Dynamics - The dollar is expected to continue its depreciation, influenced by factors such as tariff concerns and the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to European and Japanese markets. Currencies like the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real are positioned to gain against the dollar due to their cyclical beta and attractive valuations [11][12]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes betting on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations. The increasing volatility and complexity surrounding AI themes are likely to persist. A diversified stock portfolio, healthy non-USD exposure, and long positions on longer-term index volatility are recommended [14].

1月份日债收益率飙升，吸引海外资金流入。据日本证券交易协会数据，1月日债净购买额达6.04万亿日 元，仅次于2023年3月创下的6.08万亿日元纪录。 资金流入短期推升日元走强，但高盛认为只要宏观大环境保持风险偏好、利率差异维持稳定且财政扩张 计划继续推进，日元的贬值压力就将持续存在。 据追风交易台，高盛在2月19日发布报告《日本资金回流值得关注哪些方面？》。报告指出最新的官方 数据没有迹象表明日本资金正在大规模抛售海外资产并回流国内，押注日本资产将迎来重大资金转向的 投资者大概率会面临失望。 具体来看，散户和非对冲投资者（如养老金）并未改变其行为模式。以NISA（日本个人储蓄账户）为 代表的散户资金在2026年1月继续通过投资信托强劲买入外国股票。 对于非对冲投资者而言，当前的日美利差仍然过大，不足以触发大规模的债券回流。像GPIF（日本政 府养老投资基金）这样的巨头，在2030年或下一次定期战略审查之前，不太可能做出重大配置调整。 对冲投资者（主要是银行）的动向虽然可能对日元构成一定支撑，但力度有限。反直觉的是，目前随着 大多数发达市场央行降息而日本央行加息，对于对冲投资者来说，日债的相对吸引力由于对冲成 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will gradually rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and increased exposure to gold by private investors in response to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - Central banks are increasing their gold purchases as a strategy to diversify reserves and hedge against economic uncertainties [1] - Private investors are also increasing their gold exposure in anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to gradually rise, reaching $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, with diversified allocations providing upside potential [1] Group 1: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs anticipates that central bank gold purchases will accelerate again in 2026 at the pace seen in 2025 [1] - The core argument is that central bank demand, along with increased holdings by private investors (primarily due to Fed rate cuts), will support a steady increase in gold prices [1] Group 2: Private Investor Behavior - Private investors are expected to increase their positions in gold, particularly in response to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - If there is an increase in diversification strategies among the private sector, especially bullish options structures, the market may face significant upside risks [1] Group 3: Market Volatility - While the medium-term trend remains upward, there may be considerable volatility in the market [1]

高盛认为经济周期尚早但部分标的的市场估值过高，预计AI与科技股高位震荡，资金持续涌向"便 宜"的周期性资产。投资者应警惕高估值板块，拥抱受益复苏的新兴市场与旧经济板块，以分散配置应 对未来的波动分化。 据追风交易台，高盛2月19日发布报告《全球市场观点：周期顺风，估值逆风》，指出2026年全球市场 的核心矛盾：经济周期尚早，但市场周期已晚。这意味着尽管宏观经济数据持续走强，但部分股票和信 贷市场的"高估值"已成为脆弱点。 对投资者而言，这创造了明确的投资方向，拥抱那些受益于经济复苏但估值仍然便宜的周期性资产，同 时警惕已经涨幅过大的AI和大型科技股。 具体来看，新兴市场股票、澳元、铜以及美股中的资本品和材料板块大幅上涨，而此前领涨的AI/大型 科技主题则遭遇剧烈波动。高盛认为这场周期性轮动还有继续的空间。 经济数据依然坚挺：市场低估了增长前景 增长数据继续支撑周期性资产的表现。美国ISM指数在过去几个月持续上升，数据意外指数转为正值， 劳动力市场也在企稳。 从全球来看，1月发达市场制造业PMI达到过去一年的最高水平，新兴市场制造业PMI也环比上升。 高盛数据显示，市场对美国经济增长的定价仍低于其2.5%的全年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a significant downward trend, with a drawdown of approximately 50% from its peak of around 127,000 last year, and the sentiment remains bearish due to its position in the fourth year of the halving cycle [2][4]. Bitcoin Analysis - The current technical indicators show that Bitcoin is identified as a risk-on/risk-off asset, with a notable correlation to the performance of the software ETF IGV, which has declined by 30-35% [3]. - The 100-week moving average previously served as support but was breached, with a potential near-term low established around 60,000, where the relative strength index (RSI) dropped to 17 [5][6]. - Key trading levels for Bitcoin include 60,000 as a support level and 70,000 as a near-term resistance level, with a breakout level around 73,000 to 74,000 [6][8]. Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum has also seen a significant decline, down about 60% from its highs, with a near-term low around 1,750 and an RSI of 18 indicating it is extremely oversold [10]. - The trading range for Ethereum is suggested to be around 2,050, with a need for consolidation to heal the technical damage observed in both Ethereum and Bitcoin [11][12]. Regulatory Environment - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has shifted from skepticism to a more cautious approach regarding Bitcoin, citing the need for regulatory clarity as a significant factor in his investment strategy [13][14]. - The regulatory landscape is crucial for Bitcoin's future, with potential bullish catalysts hinging on clearer regulations surrounding digital assets [14][16]. CME Group Developments - CME Group announced the launch of 247 crypto futures and options in May, responding to record client demand for risk management in digital assets, with a 46% year-over-year increase in futures contracts [18][20]. - This development is seen as beneficial for both institutional and retail investors, providing more flexibility in managing exposure to cryptocurrencies [19][20].

Core Insights - AMD will support a $300 million loan for Crusoe, which is backed by Goldman Sachs and secured by chip products [1] Group 1 - The loan amount is $300 million, indicating significant financial backing for Crusoe [1] - The loan is facilitated by Goldman Sachs, a major player in investment banking [1] - The loan is secured by chip products, highlighting the importance of semiconductor technology in financing [1]

Goldman Sachs (GS) stock has been in a steady uptrend with returns of 38% in the last 52 weeks. This rally has been supported by healthy quarterly results, with Goldman dominating the dealmaking market in 2025. As a matter of fact, the investment bank has advised on more than 50% of deals exceeding $10 billion in 2025. While merger and acquisition deals increased by 10% in 2025, they're likely to rise by another 3% in 2026. Further, with the likelihood of larger deals, the deal value is expected to surpa ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is increasingly engaging with digital assets, reflecting a shift in the company's stance towards cryptocurrencies [2][3] - Client demand, particularly from hedge funds and institutional clients, is driving Goldman Sachs' interest in crypto exposure [3] - The bank's CEO, David Solomon, has acknowledged the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies while also indicating a more nuanced view over time [6] Group 1: Company Engagement with Crypto - Goldman Sachs has participated in tests on the Canton Network, an interoperable blockchain system for institutional assets in 2024 [2] - The company is exploring investment opportunities in digital assets, including bankruptcy claims and secondary market plays [2] - By mid-2024, Goldman plans to launch three tokenization projects across U.S. and European markets [3] Group 2: Client Demand and Market Trends - Following the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, there has been a notable increase in interest from hedge funds and large institutional clients [3] - Goldman Sachs is considering launching marketplaces for tokenized assets, indicating a strategic move towards digital asset infrastructure [3] Group 3: Exposure and Volatility - Goldman Sachs holds indirect exposure to approximately 13,741 Bitcoin through spot ETFs, valued at roughly $1.71 billion at fourth-quarter 2025 cycle highs [4] - The value of this exposure declined to about $944 million when Bitcoin was trading near $68,700, reflecting a 45% decrease primarily due to price movement [5] - Solomon has previously warned about the volatility of cryptocurrencies, which remains a significant characteristic of the asset class [5]