在市场表面平静之下，专业投资者正以罕见的力度买入下行保护。高盛最新数据显示，尽管标普500指 数过去两个月交易于历史上最窄的区间之一，但机构投资者的交易行为却更像是在应对VIX波动率指数 达到35的极端情况——而目前VIX仅为19。这种异常背离暗示，市场可能即将迎来方向性突破。 高盛交易员Brian Garrett在周末报告中指出，最新的机构活动——包括抛售、做空、降低总敞口和净敞 口——所显示的防御性"更像是VIX在35时的状态"。标普500一个月期权偏度已升至四年来最陡峭水 平，由下行看跌期权的昂贵和上行看涨期权的便宜共同推动。 数据显示，长期资产管理机构本周净卖出40亿美元，本月迄今净卖出100亿美元，这是四年来最大的月 度抛售倾向之一。对冲基金通过主经纪商渠道连续四周中三周净卖出美股，其中科技、媒体和电信板块 占净卖出的70%。全球股票上周录得2025年4月以来最大规模净卖出，主要由空头交易驱动。 这种防御性布局的紧迫性源于关键技术位的临近。高盛指出，gamma值在小幅下跌时就会转为负值， 这恰好与该行CTA动量策略的触发阈值重合。Garrett强调这"极其重要"，意味着市场可能正准备反映个 股层面已 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs unexpectedly raised its forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices for Q4 2026, citing low OECD oil inventories as a core reason, while maintaining a pessimistic outlook on market oversupply for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs increased its Q4 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $60 per barrel and WTI to $56 per barrel, up by $6 from previous estimates [1][2]. - The average price forecast for Brent crude for the year is now $64 per barrel, up from $56, while WTI is forecasted at $60, up from $52, but still significantly lower than current prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast of a supply surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2026, assuming no major supply disruptions and that the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not reach a peace agreement [2][3]. - The forecast reflects a downward adjustment of 200,000 bpd for both supply and demand due to weakening economic growth in Asia, resulting in a balanced outlook [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The report indicates that easing geopolitical tensions could lead to a gradual reduction of the previously estimated $6 risk premium, while also highlighting the risk of increased supply from Iran and Russia [2][3]. - The potential for sanctions relief on Iran or Russia could lead to significant downward price risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI in Q4 2026 [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Production Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production in Q2 2026, given that OECD inventories have not significantly accumulated [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a potential significant oversupply in early 2026, particularly in Q1, with supply expected to exceed demand [3].

In this article, we discuss Goldman Sachs’s Top 12 Growth Stock Picks.During much of the market cycle leading up to 2026, the United States equities markets were largely defined by growth stocks. However, data shows a clear shift in tone as 2026 drags on. In 2025, for instance, the S&P 500 Growth Index gained 22.18%, and this was an underperformance based on 2024 performance, which was 35.66%. As of February 18, 2026, however, the index was down 2.46% year to date. In contrast, the broader S&P 500 was up 0. ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI crude forecasts by $6 to $60 and $56 respectively, citing lower OECD stocks while maintaining a surplus outlook for the year [1][3] - For the year 2026, Goldman expects Brent to average $64 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $56, and WTI to average $60, an increase from $52 [1][7] - The bank's surplus forecast for 2026 is 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruptions and no resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4] Group 2 - Goldman downgraded its supply outlook for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq due to production misses, while upgrading expectations for the Americas and core OPEC countries with spare capacity [4] - The bank anticipates OPEC+ to gradually increase production starting in Q2 2026, as OECD inventories have not built up [4] - Potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia could lead to downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI in Q4 2026, with average prices expected to rise to $65 and $61 respectively in 2027 [5]

高盛分析师表示，在美国最高法院裁定根据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的关税无效后，至少在短期 内，大多数亚洲经济体面临的美国关税将略有下降。但由于大多数经济体面临的变化相对温和，且仍存 在相当大的不确定性，高盛目前并未改变对该地区的预测。美国总统特朗普已经宣布了一项根据第122 条征收15%全球关税的计划，该关税将持续到7月下旬。此后很可能会根据301条款征收持续时间更长、 而且可能更高的关税，高盛表示，未来几天可能会有更多变化。 ...

高盛假设伊朗问题不会对石油供应造成任何干扰，2026年油市保持供应盈余。因经合组织成员国库存减 少，将2026年第四季度布伦特/WTI原油价格预测上调6美元至60美元/56美元。预计布伦特/WTI原油在 2027年的平均价格将为65美元/61美元，并且在2027年12月之前，由于强劲的需求和缓慢的供应增长， 价格将回升至70美元/66美元。高盛认为，伊朗/俄罗斯制裁的潜在放松将加速原油库存的增加，并在长 期内释放更多供应，从而给2026年第四季度的价格预期带来5美元/8美元的下行风险。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上个月金价一度突破每盎司5,500美元的历史新高，投资市场的需求肯定是推手之 一，但最大的买家无疑是各国央行。近年来，各国央行的购买行为直接推高了黄金价格，但近期金价的 剧烈波动，可能令这种需求暂时减缓。高盛大宗商品分析师Lina Thomas及Daan Struyven在上周的一份 报告中指出，"在与市场人士讨论的过程中，央行储备的管理人仍然愿意购买黄金来对冲地缘政治和金 融风险，但他们更倾向于推迟购买，直到价格稳定下来。" 高盛指出，市场波动加剧是由私人部门多元化需求所驱动的，其中大部分是通过放大价格波动的黄金期 权结构来体现的。这种波动性使得一些新兴市场央行在当前价格上更加犹豫是否要积极买入，即使他们 仍然看好市场。 根据世界黄金协会的数据，各国央行在2023年和2024年净购入约1,000吨黄金。2025年这一数字降至约 900吨，但与过去两年相比，它们的购买价格更高。 金价在本月初一度回落至4,400美元，但截至周一早上10时，又重回5,100水平，报5,167美元。 高盛分析师认为，结构性背景并未改变。自2022年俄乌冲突兰导致外汇存底冻结以来，各国央行重新评 估了持有美元资产 ...

美国最高法院推翻特朗普基于紧急经济权力法实施的关税后，华尔街主要投行认为这一裁决对经济和市场的实际冲击有限，但为下半年关税政策 转向温和创造了空间，同时可能催生规模高达1200亿美元的选民退税计划。高盛和摩根士丹利的分析显示，有效关税率仅小幅下降约1个百分点， 通胀传导已基本完成，而7月后关税到期将迫使政府采取更多豁免措施。 据央视新闻，美国最高法院20日裁决美国政府征收大规模关税政策"越权"。最高法院以6-3的投票结果裁定特朗普政府根据《国际紧急经济权力 法》(IEEPA)实施的关税违宪。据央视报道，21日，特朗普又宣布，把这项新征收的"全球进口关税"税率由10%提升至15%。这些关税将持续至7月 24日，之后可能通过第301条款实施更持久的关税措施。 据高盛测算，政策调整后，自2025年初以来的有效关税率增幅将从略高于10个百分点降至约9个百分点，基本符合市场此前预期。摩根士丹利指 出，假设现有关税结构将转移至不同法律授权并基本维持原状，且退税规模有限(以850亿美元为中点估计)，企业支出或招聘意愿不会出现重大变 化。 退税问题仍存在重大不确定性。最高法院未就政府是否必须退还关税以及具体时间框架作出规定。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs is retracting its Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies, signaling a shift back to a merit-based system for board qualifications [1][2][3] - The company previously implemented DEI tests for the boards of companies it financed, indicating a strong commitment to these policies [3] - There is skepticism about whether the abandonment of DEI criteria is genuine or if it will be replaced with similar initiatives under different names [4] Group 2 - The discussion highlights a broader trend among firms feeling empowered to move away from previously established DEI practices [4] - The emphasis on meritocracy raises questions about the long-term sustainability of this approach within corporate governance [1][2] - The sentiment reflects a desire for qualified individuals to lead businesses without the influence of gender or race considerations [1][2]

Core Insights - The NYSE is developing a blockchain-powered platform for 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks and ETFs, moving away from traditional trading hours [1] - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon emphasized the importance of tokenization in evolving markets and indicated that the firm may reassess its stance on digital assets as regulatory environments change [2][3] - Solomon also noted that traditional banks and crypto are not in a zero-sum competition, highlighting a growing acceptance of tokenization within Wall Street [7] Group 1: Tokenization and Market Evolution - The NYSE has created tokenization technology and is collaborating with regulators to integrate it into the existing financial framework [2] - Solomon stated that the evolution of markets is increasingly influenced by large-scale technology platforms, with tokenization playing a central role [3] - The NYSE's upcoming blockchain platform aims to facilitate continuous trading, which could enhance market efficiency [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Financial System - Solomon criticized excessive regulations for extracting capital from the financial system, which he believes has negatively impacted market efficiency over the past five years [2] - The current regulatory climate may provide banks with more flexibility to engage with digital assets, prompting Goldman Sachs to reconsider its approach [2] - CFTC Chairman Michael Selig expressed a willingness to collaborate with both established and new market participants to develop innovative financial tools [1]