May 22, 2025 09:40 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global May 22 UST yields retreat after sharp sell-off; mixed US economic data; SOFR swap spreads widen as sentiment is boosted; Bunds rally after soft Euro Area PMI; BoJ's Noguchi sees no need to change QT plan; NZD underperforms after budget release; DXY at 99.93 (0.4%); US 10y at 4.529% (-7.0bp) The next Global Macro Commentary will be published on Tuesday, May 27. Please refer to our latest Global Insight (Global Strategy Mid-Year Outlook: All Eyes on U ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5%, reflecting a slight improvement in the economic narrative despite ongoing challenges in real estate and consumption [1][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariff reductions have eased some external pressures, the underlying deflationary cycle remains entrenched, with nominal GDP growth expected to stay low at around 3.5-3.6% over the next two years [1][46]. - It anticipates a gradual policy response, with potential fiscal stimulus of 0.5-1 trillion RMB aimed at infrastructure and urban renewal projects, alongside expected interest rate cuts by the central bank [2][34]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecasts - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.9% in 2023, declining to 3.6% in 2025, while actual GDP growth is expected to be 5.4% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2025 [6]. - Household consumption is forecasted to grow at 4.9% in 2025, supported by government subsidies and policy measures [10]. Policy Measures - The report suggests that the urgency for new incremental policies has decreased, with a focus on utilizing existing policy space and fiscal tools to stimulate the economy [2][34]. - It predicts that the government will implement a supplementary budget of 0.5-1 trillion RMB in Q4 2025 to support key sectors [34]. Inflation and Deflation - The GDP deflator is expected to decline by -0.9% in 2025, indicating persistent deflationary pressures, with PPI deflation and low CPI inflation continuing [46][49]. - The report emphasizes that despite tariff reductions, the overall economic environment remains challenging, with structural issues limiting rapid recovery [9][46]. Trade and Tariffs - The report maintains that U.S. tariffs on China will remain at 30% over the forecast period, which is expected to dampen export growth significantly [20][21]. - It anticipates that China's export growth will drop to 0% in 2025, with a potential rebound to 3.5% in 2026 as tariff impacts lessen [20][23]. Sectoral Insights - Government consumption is projected to rebound significantly, with growth rates expected to rise from 1.4% in 2023 to 7% in 2025, driven by debt restructuring policies [11]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain strong growth, with a forecasted increase from 9.1% in 2023 to over 10% in 2025 [14].

智通财经5月23日电，摩根士丹利将西部数据目标价从54美元上调至70美元。 ...

来源 | 智通财经 在评级机构穆迪于上周下调美国信用评级后，本周美国国债拍卖遇冷以及对特朗普政府减税法案 将导致美国预算赤字进一步扩大的担忧，令"卖出美国"交易有所加速。 $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ 在过去两天下跌了约1%，基准10年期美债收益率在短短四天内飙升了10个基点。 尽管近期出现了对美国资产的抛售，但摩根士丹利的一个策略师团队预计，美国资产将在明年反 弹，表现将优于全球同行。他们表示：" 我们反对外国投资者会或应该大幅抛售美国资产的观 点。 "他们的部分理由很简单，就是没有更好的选择，"TINA"——除了持有股票，别无他选 (There Is No Alternative to owning equities)——目前仍是一个主题。 对于美股，大摩策略师认为，虽然波动性将在未来两个季度继续占据主导地位，但美国股市明年 的表现应该会与当前的趋势截然相反。 策略师预计，到2026年第二季度，标普500指数将达到 6500点，较目前水平上涨10%。策略师称："2026年美联储降息、美元走软、以及人工智能驱动 的效率提高的更广泛的实现，应该有助于盈利路径。" 大摩策略师补充称，与此同时，贸易紧张 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [19]. Core Insights - Consumer activity in China showed improvement in April 2025, although it remained in negative territory. Key indicators such as household loans, passenger car sales, and air passenger travel experienced slight improvements, while retail sales in catering remained stable. However, commodity retail sales weakened due to tariff disruptions [10]. - The effectiveness of the trade-in program has diminished, and the impact of lighter and later additional stimulus may put consumer sentiment under pressure in the coming months [10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Activity Indicators - The China Five-factor Consumer Activity Z-Score measures the momentum of consumer activity and has shown improvement, correlating positively with the MSCI China index performance [5][6]. - The five factors included in the Z-Score are: household loan year-over-year change, retail sales in catering year-over-year change, retail sales in commodities (excluding autos) year-over-year change, passenger car retail sales year-over-year three-month moving average, and air passenger traffic year-over-year three-month moving average [5]. Economic Context - The report indicates that while consumer activity has improved, the overall sentiment may be affected by external factors such as tariffs and the effectiveness of government stimulus measures [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal-weight rating on China within the Emerging Markets/Asia Pacific ex-Japan framework, indicating a balanced approach to investment opportunities in the region [15]. Core Insights - The sentiment for A-shares has declined, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) dropping to 61%, a decrease of 10 percentage points from the previous cutoff date [2][6]. - Despite the drop in sentiment, index targets for Chinese equities have been raised due to sustained structural improvements and positive developments in tariffs and earnings [14]. - The report suggests a preference for offshore investments over A-shares, citing a stronger positioning to benefit from current market conditions [15]. Summary by Sections A-Share Market Sentiment - A-share investor sentiment has decreased, with the simple MSASI falling to 49%, a drop of 13 percentage points compared to the prior cutoff date [2]. - Average daily turnover for various segments, including ChiNext and A-shares, has also seen declines, with ChiNext turnover down by 20% [2]. Macro Economic Outlook - The economics team has revised GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 4.5% and 4.2% respectively, reflecting stronger tracking for 2Q GDP due to reduced tariff headwinds [4]. - However, domestic investment and consumption have missed expectations, with capital expenditure slowing broadly, particularly in manufacturing [4]. Property Market Insights - Property sales have shown a deeper year-on-year decline in April, with construction activity worsening, indicating potential for a faster decline in the physical market in the coming months [5]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on high-quality large-cap internet and tech leaders while underweighting sectors such as energy and real estate [15]. - The structural improvements in China's equity market since the second half of 2024 are believed to remain intact, despite broader macro-level recovery challenges [13][14].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha May 18, 2025 08:53 PM GMT India Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific M Update QE Mar-25 Earnings So Far Key Takeaways For our coverage, revenue, EBITDA, and net profit growth stood at 5%, 8%, and - 1% YoY, respectively, or +3ppt, +5ppt and +9ppt above our analyst estimates. * Relative stock performance – the proportion of stocks under Morgan Stanley coverage that outperformed the Sensex a day before and after the results. * Morgan Stanley Research analyst estimates for the 60 compa ...

智通财经5月22日电，国际投行摩根士丹利22日将韩国今年经济增长预期上调至1.1%。报告指出，由于 关税不确定性的因素犹存，韩国经济将持续疲弱，但近期中美关税矛盾逐步降级，且美国暂缓征收"对 等关税"90天，因此将韩国今年经济增长预期由此前的1%上调至1.1%。此外，韩国明年经济增长预期同 样被上调0.1个百分点至1.5%。报告指出，下月大选后，财政将为经济注入新动力，预计韩国政府下半 年会编制补充预算。 摩根士丹利上调韩国今年经济增长预期至1.1% 此前为1% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the US economy, projecting that it will avoid a recession despite slow growth and firm inflation [20][21]. Core Insights - The US economy is expected to experience GDP growth of 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with inflation peaking in Q3 2025 before gradually declining [21][24]. - High tariffs and tighter immigration policies are significant factors contributing to slower economic growth and firm inflation [2][15]. - The effective tariff rate is currently at 13%, which is higher than previously anticipated [18][35]. Economic Growth - GDP growth is forecasted at 1.0% Q4/Q4 for both 2025 and 2026, with economic activity expected to be nearly flat in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [2][21]. - Personal consumption expenditures are projected to slow significantly, from 3.1% growth in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026 [4][40]. Inflation - Headline and core PCE inflation are expected to be 3.0% and 3.3% respectively in 2025, with a decline to 2.2% and 2.3% in 2026 [5][38]. - The inflationary impact of tariffs is anticipated to be transitory, with inflation expectations potentially becoming more malleable due to prolonged above-target inflation [5][38]. Labor Market - The labor market is expected to cool gradually, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026 [6][21]. - Employment growth is forecasted to slow significantly, with a drop from 144,000 jobs per month in early 2025 to around 50,000 in 2026 [6][38]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy rate until March 2026, with potential cuts thereafter [7][21]. - The Fed's target range for the federal funds rate is projected to be 2.50-2.75% by the end of 2026, indicating deeper cuts than currently anticipated by the market [10][21]. Fiscal Policy - The federal fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 7.1% of GDP in 2026, driven by slower economic growth and automatic stabilizers [77][78]. - Fiscal policy is projected to be less expansionary, with a modest contribution to GDP growth anticipated [85][86]. Investment Trends - Nonresidential fixed investment is forecasted to slow from 2.3% growth in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, reflecting cautious business sentiment [57][58]. - Residential investment is expected to grow only modestly, with pressures from tariffs and immigration controls limiting new construction [69][70].

该法案预计将节省1.9万亿美元，大部分（1.2万亿美元）直到10年预算窗口的后半段才能实现： 德意志银行的Brett Ryan指出，JCT的评分与德意志银行此前预计的总体赤字假设基本一致。然而，JCT的评分并未关注财政前景的关键要素，如关税收 入和潜在支出增加的估算。德银强调： （特朗普任期内）似乎没有采取任何认真的措施来控制历史高位的赤字，未来几年赤字仍将超过 GDP 的 6% 以上。 特朗普的税改法案将导致近期财政赤字大幅增加，十年内为美国新增约5万亿美元债务，即使考虑税收延期措施也难以抵消这一趋势。 近期，美国税务联合委员会(JCT)对众议院筹款委员会标记版本的初步评分，税改法案将在未来10年增加3.8万亿美元赤字，其中2.2万亿美元（约58%） 将在前五年产生。更令人担忧的是，负责任联邦预算委员会(CRFB)估计，若将临时条款考虑在内，该法案实际将为美国增加5.2万亿美元债务。 支出前置、节约后置的结构性问题 德银表示，这项法案的独特之处在于支出和减税措施集中在前期，而抵消措施则集中在后期。 根据法案，约55%的总赤字增加(2.8万亿美元)将发生在预算窗口的前半部分，而只有40%的抵消措施(9700亿 ...