证券研究报告·海外公司点评·互联网电商 拼多多（PDD） 2024Q1 业绩点评：营收利润大超预期，期待 盈利能力持续提升 2024 年 05 月 25 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------|-----------|------------|------------|------------| | [ 盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 130,558 | 247,639 | 407,859 | 549,507 | 686,415 | | 同比（ % ） | 38.97% | 89.68% | 64.70% | 34.73% | 24.91% | | Non-GAAP 净利润 | 39,529.72 | 67,899.29 | 130,514.88 | 170,347.15 | 205,924.39 | | 同比（ % ） | 185.84% | 71 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in overseas business [1] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 86.8 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 131% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2% [8] - Gross profit reached 54.1 billion RMB, up 104% year-over-year and up 1% quarter-over-quarter [8] - Operating profit was 26 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 275% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 16% [8] - Net profit amounted to 28 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 246% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 20% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.6 billion RMB, up 202% year-over-year and up 20% quarter-over-quarter [8] Financial Overview - The company reported a strong performance with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit margin of 32.3% in Q1 2024 [18][19] - The report highlights a significant increase in transaction commission revenue, which reached 44.4 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 327% [1][8] - The company's effective cost control and improved operating leverage contributed to the substantial profit release, with net profit far exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 458.3 billion RMB, 624 billion RMB, and 812.8 billion RMB respectively [12][21] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been revised to 144.8 billion RMB, 203.2 billion RMB, and 258.5 billion RMB respectively [12][21] - The report estimates a target market value of 2,192.1 billion RMB for 2024, corresponding to a target price of 218 USD per ADS [12][22]

Key PointsPDD stock has changed a little, even after tripling its net income for shareholders. The company keeps riding on the Chinese economy's tailwind from a consumer comeback.Analysts still see double-digit EPS growth for the rest of the year despite management's lack of guidance for 2024.Price targets suggest a potential 50% rally from here, and smart money has bought into that idea.5 stocks we like better than Alibaba GroupAfter a spectacular 36.4% run in the fourth quarter of 2023 earnings, shares of ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) with an upward revision in the target price [7][22] Core Views - Pinduoduo's Q1 2024 revenue reached 86.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131%, with operating profit at 26 billion yuan, up 275% year-on-year [7] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q1 2024 was 28.55 billion yuan, a 237% increase year-on-year, and Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 30.6 billion yuan, up 202% year-on-year [7] - The company's overseas business, particularly Temu, is growing rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue and improving unit economics (UE) [1] - Pinduoduo's advertising revenue in Q1 2024 was 42.46 billion yuan, a 56% year-on-year increase, driven by new advertising products and high-quality merchant growth [1] - Commission revenue in Q1 2024 was 44.4 billion yuan, with the main platform commission rate at 1.03%, and contributions from grocery and overseas businesses reaching 32.3 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - Pinduoduo's operating costs and sales expenses in Q1 2024 totaled 56.1 billion yuan, accounting for 64.5% of total revenue, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from Q4 2023 [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 62.3% in Q1 2024, up 1.8 percentage points from Q4 2023 [1] - Sales expenses in Q1 2024 were 23.4 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 27%, down 3.3 percentage points from Q4 2023 [1] - Administrative expenses in Q1 2024 were 1.8 billion yuan, with an administrative expense ratio of 2%, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1] - R&D expenses in Q1 2024 were 2.9 billion yuan, with an R&D expense ratio of 3.35%, up 0.13 percentage points from Q4 2023 [1] Strategic Initiatives - Pinduoduo is focusing on supply chain and logistics optimization, with Temu introducing customized supply chain solutions in different markets to improve efficiency and reduce costs [1] - The company is enhancing consumer experience and compliance, building a secure and compliant shopping environment, and improving user satisfaction through technology and operations [1] - Pinduoduo has introduced free delivery for e-commerce packages in remote provinces, reducing the distance between delivery points and consumers to within 2 kilometers [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts Pinduoduo's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 470.7 billion yuan, 695 billion yuan, and 838.3 billion yuan, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders expected to reach 128.3 billion yuan, 205.2 billion yuan, and 312 billion yuan [1] - The company's revenue growth rate is projected to be 90.1% in 2024, 47.7% in 2025, and 20.6% in 2026 [21] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to grow by 88.9% in 2024, 61.2% in 2025, and 55.3% in 2026 [21] Valuation - The report values Pinduoduo at 15x PE based on 2024 Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders, with a target market capitalization of approximately 265.9 billion USD [1]

主站货币化率持续提升，TEMU 亏损超预期收窄 拼多多（PDD.NASDAQ） 2024 年 05 月 23 日 ——美股公司信息更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 投资评级：买入（维持） \n日期 | 2024/05/22 | 吴柳燕（分析师） wuliuyan@kysec.cn 证书编号： S0790521110001 | 荀月（联系人） xunyue@kysec.cn 证书编号： S0790122100036 | | 当前股价 ( 美元 ) | 147.09 | 主站变现率提升， | TEMU | | 一年最高最低 ( 美元 ) | 152.99/59.98 | | | | 总市值 ( 亿美元 ) | 2042.71 | 缓，多多买菜 ...

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2024 reached RMB86.8 billion, representing a 131% year-on-year increase [2][50] - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB28 billion, compared to RMB8.1 billion in the same quarter last year [24] - Non-GAAP operating profit was RMB28.6 billion, up from RMB8.5 billion in the same quarter last year, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 33% compared to 22% in the same quarter last year [52][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues from online marketing services were RMB42.5 billion, up 56% year-on-year [50] - Revenues from transaction services were RMB44.4 billion, up 327% from the same quarter last year [50] - Non-GAAP sales and marketing expenses were RMB22.7 billion, up 44% year-on-year [51] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consumer market in Q1 showed strong online consumption and rising online retail penetration [43] - The company reported a rapid year-on-year growth of order volume from remote areas due to improved shipping services [45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on high-quality development, emphasizing long-term value creation over short-term gains [4][15] - Key strategic areas include consumption, supply, compliance, and platform ecosystem [15][40] - The company is committed to enhancing supply chain capabilities and compliance standards to support sustainable growth [83][82] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the consumer market in China, driven by macroeconomic improvements and effective promotional events [43] - The company acknowledged intensified competition but emphasized a focus on delivering value to consumers and merchants [29][12] - Management highlighted the importance of compliance as a core capability for long-term development [82][90] Other Important Information - The company is investing in agriculture technology and initiatives to support local farmers and enhance agricultural product offerings [18][68] - The company has a significant cash position of RMB242.1 billion as of March 31, 2024 [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does management evaluate the competitive landscape and strategic focus going forward? - Management noted that consumers are comparing shopping experiences across platforms and emphasized the importance of product selection, pricing, and services [56][57] Question: Can management discuss the growth potential of the agricultural product category? - Management highlighted agriculture as a foundational aspect of the business, with ongoing investments and innovations to enhance the agricultural supply chain [66][68] Question: What are the company's plans regarding profitability and resource allocation? - Management reiterated a focus on long-term growth and intrinsic value, suggesting that short-term fluctuations should not dictate overall performance [66][84]

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...

Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) .PDD Holdings Inc. currently has an average broker ...