Core Viewpoint - The TJX Companies, Inc. plans to release its fourth quarter and full year Fiscal 2026 sales and earnings results on February 25, 2026, before 9:30 a.m. ET [1] Group 1: Earnings Announcement - The conference call to discuss the results will be held at 11:00 a.m. ET on the same day, led by CEO Ernie Herrman [2] - A real-time webcast of the call will be available to the public at TJX.com, with a replay option available until March 3, 2026 [2] Group 2: Company Overview - The TJX Companies, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashions, operating over 5,100 stores across nine countries [3] - The company offers a rapidly changing assortment of quality, fashionable, brand name, and designer merchandise at prices generally 20% to 60% below full-price retailers [3] - TJX operates various retail brands including TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and others, along with e-commerce sites for several of its brands [3]

Market Overview - The broader equity markets experienced a recovery after a significant sell-off, particularly driven by technology stocks like NVIDIA and Broadcom [1] - Bitcoin rebounded after dropping to $60,062.00, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk-off strategies [1][2] Financial Sector Insights - The finance sector faces latent threats from AI and disappointing retail sales data, contributing to market volatility [2] - Investors are adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, focusing on "cash cow" stocks that offer higher returns [2] Key Financial Metrics - Return on Equity (ROE) is highlighted as a crucial metric for assessing a company's profitability and financial health [3][4] - A high ROE indicates effective reinvestment of cash at high rates of return, distinguishing profit-generating companies from less efficient ones [3][4] Stock Screening Criteria - Stocks are screened based on parameters such as Cash Flow greater than $1 billion and ROE exceeding industry averages [5] - Additional criteria include Price/Cash Flow lower than industry averages and Return on Assets (ROA) greater than industry benchmarks [6] Selected Stocks - Alcoa Corporation (AA): Engaged in mining and electricity generation, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 44.5% and a Zacks Rank 1 [7][8] - Globe Life Inc. (GL): An insurance holding company with a Zacks Rank 2 and a focus on life and supplemental health insurance [9][10] - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA): Provides banking and asset management services, with a long-term earnings growth expectation of 12% and a Zacks Rank 1 [10][11] - The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): A leading off-price retailer with a long-term earnings growth expectation of 10.2% and a Zacks Rank 2 [12][13] - TE Connectivity plc (TEL): A global technology company focused on connectivity solutions, with a long-term earnings growth expectation of 12% and a Zacks Rank 1 [14][15]

Core Insights - December retail sales in the U.S. were flat month-over-month, a significant slowdown from November's 0.6% increase, indicating a cautious consumer environment amid rising prices and policy uncertainty [1][2] Retail Sales Overview - Retail sales showed no growth in December, with declines in eight of the thirteen categories tracked by the Census Bureau, suggesting households are becoming more cautious in their spending [1][2][7] - Categories that saw gains included building materials and garden equipment (1.2%), food and beverage stores (0.2%), and sporting goods (0.4) [3] - Conversely, declines were noted in motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.2%), clothing stores (-0.7%), and general merchandise stores (-0.1%) [4] Retail Sector Opportunities - Despite subdued sales, certain retailers are well-positioned to thrive in a cautious consumer environment, including Dollar General, Walmart, Ross Stores, and TJX Companies, due to their scale, pricing flexibility, and loyal customer bases [5][7] Company-Specific Insights Dollar General - Dollar General is enhancing its market position through remodel strategies and digital expansion, targeting both consumable and non-consumable categories [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 4.8% growth in sales and 9.6% in EPS for the current financial year, with a 4.1% rise in sales and 9.2% in earnings projected for the next fiscal year [9] Walmart - Walmart is leveraging its scale and diversified business model to drive market share gains, focusing on high-growth initiatives in advertising and membership services [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a 4.6% growth in sales and 5.2% in EPS for the current financial year, with similar growth expected in the next fiscal year [11] Ross Stores - Ross Stores is capitalizing on its off-price model, with strong customer engagement and effective merchandising driving traffic and sales [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 6.4% growth in sales and 2.4% in EPS for the current financial year, with a 5.4% rise in sales and 10% growth in earnings projected for the next fiscal year [15] TJX Companies - TJX's off-price business model and "treasure hunt" shopping experience are driving consistent foot traffic and market share gains [16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate shows a 6.5% growth in sales and 9.6% in EPS for the current financial year, with a 5.5% rise in sales and 9.7% growth in earnings expected for the next fiscal year [17]

Core Viewpoint - Consumers are facing economic challenges, impacting retail sales, but TJX Companies and Walmart have performed well, raising the question of which stock is a better long-term investment [1] TJX Companies - TJX operates brands like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, offering products at prices 20% to 60% lower than full-price retailers [3] - The company sources excess inventory from manufacturers at favorable prices, allowing it to offer lower prices to customers, especially during economic downturns [4] - TJX's fiscal third-quarter same-store sales grew by 5%, with positive performance across all divisions for the period ending November 1 [5] Walmart - Walmart has been successful since its inception, focusing on cost control to provide everyday low prices, making it difficult for customers to find lower prices elsewhere [6] - The company operates three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club, with Walmart U.S. generating the majority of revenue [7] - In the fiscal third quarter, Walmart U.S. same-store sales increased by 4.5%, driven by higher traffic contributing 1.8 percentage points [7] Investment Performance - Walmart shares returned 183% over the last five years, outperforming the S&P 500's 96.2% return [8] - Walmart's current P/E ratio is 44, significantly higher than its 10-year median of 29 and the S&P 500's 30 [9] - TJX has delivered a 145.7% return over the past 10 years, nearly 50 percentage points above the S&P 500, with a P/E ratio of 34, slightly above its 10-year median of 24 [10]

Core Viewpoint - TJX Companies, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer with a market cap of $164.1 billion, known for offering brand-name and designer merchandise at discounted prices, and has shown strong performance in the retail sector [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - TJX has outperformed the broader market and sector peers, with stock prices increasing by 18.7% over the past 52 weeks and 16.7% over the past six months, compared to the S&P 500 Index's gains of 15.4% and 9.4% respectively [2]. - The company has also surpassed the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's performance, which saw a 5% increase over the past 52 weeks and 7.9% over the past six months [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - The resilient off-price retail model of TJX has attracted value-conscious consumers during inflation and economic uncertainty, supported by strong customer traffic and disciplined inventory management [4]. - Effective cost controls, opportunistic buying, and consistent margin expansion have contributed to solid earnings growth and enhanced profitability [4]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - For fiscal 2026, analysts project an EPS of $4.67 for TJX, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.6%, with a strong history of surpassing earnings estimates in the past four quarters [5]. - The consensus rating among 20 analysts covering TJX stock is a "Strong Buy," with 17 "Strong Buys," one "Moderate Buy," and two "Holds" [5].

Core Insights - TJ Maxx is opening its first new store in Manhattan in over a decade, signing a lease for 40,000 square feet at Herald Towers, marking the largest new retail deal in the city for the past two years [1][4] Group 1: Retail Landscape - The majority of recent large retail commitments have been focused on health and fitness clubs, medical clinics, fast food, and educational uses, with very few comparable deals to TJ Maxx's being new openings rather than renewals [2] - The new TJ Maxx store will join other retailers like Old Navy, MooMoo, and IT Italian Trattoria in Herald Square, which is a significant shopping district [3][8] Group 2: Herald Towers and Leasing Details - Herald Towers, which has 110,000 square feet of retail space, is now 95% leased following the TJ Maxx deal, indicating a strong recovery in the area [3] - The building, previously the McAlpin Hotel, was acquired by JEMB Realty in 1999 and has been converted into rental apartments, highlighting the transformation of the property [6][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The resurgence of foot traffic in Herald Square, driven by businesses like Macy's, has contributed to the area's retail recovery, although it took until last year for crowds to reach record levels [6]

Industry Overview - Consumers are cautious due to economic challenges such as high inflation and a potentially weakening job market, leading to reduced spending [1] - The S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector has returned 4.8% over the past year, significantly lower than the S&P 500's overall return of 15.1% [1] Nike - Nike has historically been a dominant player in the sportswear market, with approximately 65% of its sales coming from footwear [4] - Recent sales have been declining due to increased competition, lack of innovative products, and a strategic shift to direct-to-consumer sales, which has impacted relationships with wholesale partners [5] - In the fiscal third quarter, Nike's sales growth was stagnant after adjusting for foreign-currency effects, with wholesale revenue increasing by 8% but direct revenue declining by 9% [6] TJX Companies - TJX Companies operates an off-price retail business under brands like TJ Maxx and Marshalls, capitalizing on purchasing excess inventory at attractive prices [7] - The company has benefited from economic conditions that allow it to source a wider selection of discounted goods, particularly during challenging times [8] - In the fiscal third quarter, TJX reported a 5% increase in same-store sales, achieving positive comps across all its business segments [8]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer sentiment has sharply declined, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 84.5 in January from 94.2 in December, marking the lowest level since 2014 [1][2] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Persistent concerns about high living costs and limited affordability are eroding consumer optimism, compounded by rising geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade policies that amplify business uncertainty [2] - With consumer sentiment at a decade low, households may adopt a more defensive spending approach, potentially leading to softer consumer spending and impacting sales and earnings growth for consumer-facing sectors [3] Retail Sector Resilience - Despite weakening consumer confidence, companies like Dollar General, Walmart, Dollar Tree, and TJX are well-positioned to navigate a cautious consumer environment, benefiting as households prioritize essentials and seek greater value [4][8] - Dollar General's remodel strategy and digital growth are expected to support sales and earnings acceleration, while Walmart's omnichannel strength and profit mix shift are driving market share gains [6][12] Company-Specific Insights Dollar General - Dollar General is solidifying its market position through extreme value and convenience, with a focus on market share gains across consumable and non-consumable categories [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General's current financial-year sales and EPS implies growth of 4.8% and 9.6%, respectively, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.9% [10] Walmart - Walmart leverages its scale and diversified business model, focusing on high-growth initiatives that shift its profit mix, resulting in consistent double-digit e-commerce growth [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Walmart's current financial-year sales and EPS implies growth of 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.8% [13] Dollar Tree - Dollar Tree is enhancing its focus as a pure-play value retailer, broadening its consumer appeal and strengthening operational discipline [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar Tree's current financial-year EPS implies growth of 12.4%, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 29.1% [16] TJX Companies - TJX's off-price business model and disciplined inventory management drive consistent foot traffic and market share capture [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TJX's current financial-year sales and EPS implies growth of 6.5% and 9.6%, respectively, with a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5% [19]

Company Performance - TJX closed at $150.08, reflecting a -2.06% change from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [1] - Over the last month, TJX shares decreased by 2.46%, while the Retail-Wholesale sector gained 5.24% and the S&P 500 gained 0.18% [1] Upcoming Earnings - TJX is expected to report EPS of $1.38, which is a 12.2% increase from the prior-year quarter, with anticipated revenue of $17.4 billion, indicating a 6.43% increase from the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $4.67 per share and revenue at $60.01 billion, representing increases of +9.62% and +6.48% respectively from the prior year [3] Analyst Revisions - Recent changes to analyst estimates for TJX reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in business performance and profit potential [3] Zacks Rank and Performance - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), shows that 1 ranked stocks have yielded an average annual return of +25% since 1988; TJX currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] Valuation Metrics - TJX has a Forward P/E ratio of 32.8, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 29.15; the PEG ratio stands at 3.21, aligning with the average for Retail-Discount Stores [6] Industry Ranking - The Retail-Discount Stores industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 23, placing it in the top 10% of over 250 industries [7]

Financial Performance - Costco's revenue and earnings have grown at CAGRs of 9.18% and 13.26% over the past 10 years, with the most recent quarter showing a beat on both revenue and earnings [1][6] - For the first quarter ended Nov. 23, 2025, Costco's total revenue was $67.3 billion, an increase of 8.3% year-over-year, and earnings per share rose to $4.50, exceeding expectations of $4.27 [6] - Net cash from operating activities increased to $4.7 billion from $3.3 billion in the prior year, with a cash balance of $16.2 billion and no short-term debt [7] Stock Valuation and Ratings - Costco's market cap is $436.4 billion, with the stock up 5% over the past year and a current dividend yield of 0.53% [2] - Analysts have assigned a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for COST stock, with a mean target price of $1,043.32, indicating an upside potential of about 6.1% from current levels [8] Business Model and Market Position - Founded in 1983, Costco operates a membership-only wholesale club model, offering a wide range of products at low prices and is a global leader in membership warehouse retailing [3] - The company has been raising dividends consecutively for 21 years, with a payout ratio of just under 30%, indicating room for growth [2]