Group 1: Investment Performance - Qualivian Investment Partners outperformed the iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF by 69.2% and 61.3% on a gross and net basis since inception through September 30, 2025 [1] - The fund also exceeded the S&P 500 by 32.7% and 26.1% respectively, on a gross and net basis [1] Group 2: Company Highlight - The TJX Companies, Inc. - The TJX Companies, Inc. had a one-month return of 2.75% and a 52-week gain of 26.80% [2] - As of December 22, 2025, The TJX Companies, Inc. stock closed at $156.58 per share, with a market capitalization of $173.88 billion [2] Group 3: Market Context and Sector Performance - The S&P 500's Q3 2025 performance was driven by investment in Artificial Intelligence and the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut since 2024, which increased investor risk appetite [3] - Information Technology and Communication Services sectors led due to AI-related growth, while defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Healthcare lagged [3] Group 4: Hedge Fund Interest - The TJX Companies, Inc. was held by 69 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, down from 73 in the previous quarter [4] - While The TJX Companies, Inc. is recognized for its investment potential, certain AI stocks are considered to offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4]

Summary of U.S. Consumer Strategy & Quantitative Research Webinar Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. Consumer sector, specifically Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples, which have underperformed the market by low double-digit percentages year-to-date in 2025 [3][18]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: 2025 has been challenging for the Consumer sector, with both Discretionary and Staples underperforming. Consumer Staples are now seen as attractive due to favorable price-to-forward earnings valuation multiples [3][31]. - **Sector Dynamics**: There is a contrasting performance between Consumer Staples and technology sectors, raising concerns about a potential tech bubble. Economic factors such as cutbacks in healthcare and SNAP benefits for low-income consumers, alongside inflation, could lead to an economic slowdown [4][19]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on Consumer stocks that are: 1. More international 2. Exposed to higher-income consumers 3. Defensive in nature 4. Not facing idiosyncratic pressures that are not fully priced in [3][22]. - **Key Themes**: Tariff volatility, GLP-1 drug uptake, and consumer bifurcation are critical themes to monitor. Lower-income households are pressured by cutbacks, while higher-income households may benefit from upcoming tax breaks [5][20]. Subsector Recommendations - **Consumer Staples**: Emphasis on companies with international exposure in Soft Beverages and Household & Personal Care, as well as defensive Broadline Retailers. Caution is advised around companies negatively impacted by GLP-1 drug uptake [6][22]. - **Consumer Discretionary**: Focus on higher-quality names with reliable earnings performance. Caution is advised for those without a quality bias, although companies catering to higher-income consumers may benefit from tax breaks in 2026 [6][22]. Performance Metrics - **Consumer Discretionary**: - Best performers include Casinos (23.7%), Apparel Retail (22.7%), and Automotive Retail (19.1%). Weakest sectors include Textiles, Apparel, and Luxury Goods (2.1%) [27][28]. - **Consumer Staples**: - Dollar Stores (49.5%) and Tobacco (29.8%) are leading, while Food Producers (-7.3%) and Alcoholic Beverages (-28.6%) are lagging [29][30]. Valuation Insights - **Valuation Multiples**: Discretionary multiples are about 10% cheaper than historical averages, while Staples are in line with historical averages despite underperformance [31][32]. - **Stock Performance Drivers**: In 2025, multiple expansion has driven stock performance more than earnings growth in both sectors [44]. Earnings Revisions - **Sales Expectations**: Remained stable across consumer discretionary sectors, while earnings per share revisions have shown significant dispersion, particularly declining in textiles and luxury goods due to tariff impacts [51][52]. Conclusion - The current environment is characterized by significant sector rotation and stock-picking opportunities. Analysts recommend focusing on high-quality, defensive stocks with international exposure as the market navigates through economic uncertainties and potential sector shifts [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - TJX Companies Inc. is recognized as a strong investment opportunity by hedge funds, with UBS reiterating a Buy rating due to the company's significant market share gains against department stores [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - TJX has been a major share gainer in sales and EBIT dollars against department stores for over a decade, with a particularly strong performance in the third quarter [2]. - Bernstein SocGen Group has also rated TJX as an Outperform with a price target of $155, following positive insights from meetings with senior management [3]. Group 2: Growth Projections - Bernstein anticipates a 13% compound annual growth rate for TJX from 2021 to 2025, highlighting the company's potential to accelerate earnings growth despite challenges such as tariffs and consumer uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Dividend Commitment - TJX has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.425, which will be payable on March 5, 2026, marking 46 consecutive years of dividend payments, with an annual dividend yield of 1.11% [4]. Group 4: Company Overview - TJX Companies, Inc. is the world's leading off-price retailer, offering brand-name apparel and home goods at prices 20% to 60% lower than department stores, operating brands like T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and Sierra [5].

Core Insights - Retail stocks are sensitive to economic shifts, yet major retailers like TJX Companies, Walmart, and Dollar General have shown resilience across various economic cycles [1][7] Group 1: Company Performance - TJX has outperformed the S&P 500 for the last two years and has delivered consistent gains for over 15 years, maintaining its position as a leader in off-price apparel and home goods [3][5] - Walmart, the world's largest retailer by revenue, has seen its stock price rise significantly from $58.52 to $116.70 following a stock split, and is expanding into AI shopping through a partnership with OpenAI [4][5] - Dollar General's stock has rebounded by 75% in 2025 after a 70% decline in the previous two years, with plans to open 450 new locations in 2026 [6][5] Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors with $500 available for investment may consider buying stocks from TJX, Walmart, or Dollar General, as all three companies have demonstrated adaptability to changing consumer spending patterns [1][7]

Core Insights - TJX has outperformed the S&P 500 with a 28% gain this year and a 129% return over the past five years, driven by its discount retail model [1][2] - The company's primary brands, T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, are crucial for its success, contributing approximately 60% of total sales in Q3 FY26 [5][3] - Economic conditions favor TJX's business model, attracting consumers seeking low-priced essential products during downturns [9][10] Financial Performance - The U.S. Marmaxx division grew by 7% year over year, while Canadian and international segments increased by 8% and 9% year over year, respectively [7] - Comparable sales for the parent company increased by 5%, indicating customer loyalty and larger order sizes [8] Market Trends - The growing trend of clothing reselling, particularly among Gen Z, presents an opportunity for TJX as consumers buy and resell discounted items [11] - The company is positioned well for continued growth into 2026, especially if comparable sales and revenue maintain their upward trajectory [12]

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club is facing challenges in growth and competition, while TJX Companies presents a more attractive long-term investment opportunity due to its strong performance and adaptability in uncertain economic conditions [1][3]. BJ's Wholesale Club - BJ's stock is currently priced at $94.66 with a market cap of $12 billion and a year-to-date increase of 5% [2]. - The company reported a modest sales increase of 1.1% in the third quarter and 0.8% for the first nine months of fiscal year 2025 compared to the previous year [6]. - BJ's faces competition from larger players like Costco and Walmart, lacking the scale and international presence that these competitors have [7]. - The company operates fewer than 300 stores, primarily on the East Coast, which limits its market reach [7]. TJX Companies - TJX has seen a significant year-to-date stock increase of nearly 30% and has exceeded sales and margin expectations in its latest quarter [7]. - The company has raised its guidance for the upcoming year and anticipates a strong holiday season [7]. - TJX operates under an off-price retail model, which is particularly appealing in times of economic uncertainty as consumers seek discounts [9]. - The company reported a 1% increase in gross profit margins from the previous year's third quarter, indicating strong financial health [10].

Core Viewpoint - The TJX Companies, Inc. is currently experiencing significant momentum, but a pullback is anticipated before making a purchase decision [1]. Company Overview - The TJX Companies, Inc. operates in the off-price retail sector, selling apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods [1]. - The company offers a diverse range of merchandise, including clothing, beauty items, furniture, decor, kitchenware, and seasonal products [1]. Market Performance - Jim Cramer noted that TJX has shown "tremendous momentum" and is currently at its highest point [1]. - Cramer also compared TJX with Costco, highlighting both as growth retailers with excellent performance metrics [1]. Investment Considerations - While TJX is recognized as a strong investment opportunity, there are suggestions that certain AI stocks may present greater upside potential with less downside risk [1].

Market Overview - On Tuesday, the NYSE and Nasdaq recorded 56 and 99 new 52-week highs, respectively, while also seeing 42 and 256 new 52-week lows, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - The S&P 500 has fallen for three consecutive days, with new lows outpacing new highs significantly [1] Economic Insights - Gina Bolvin from Bolvin Wealth Management Group commented that the current economic data suggests a slowing economy, with job growth stabilizing but showing signs of weakness [2] Company Performance - Southwest Airlines (LUV) and TJX Companies (TJX) were among the new highs on the NYSE, with LUV achieving its 18th new high and TJX its 31st in the past year [2] - Year-to-date, Southwest's stock has increased over 25%, while TJX's share price has risen by more than 28%, both significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [3] Stock Analysis - Southwest Airlines' stock has shown strong performance in recent trading days, with daily gains recorded between 1.06% and 4.4% [4] - In the four weeks ending December 15, Southwest's stock had weekly gains of 6.13%, 8.73%, 8.77%, and 2.43%, leading to a year-to-date increase of over 25% [4] Operational Metrics - Concerns regarding Southwest Airlines include operational deficiencies, financial stability, and an overvalued stock price [5] - In Q3 2025, Southwest's cost per available seat mile (CASM) was 15.17 cents, a 0.4% increase from the previous year, while the revenue per available seat mile (RASM) was 15.25 cents, also up by 0.4% year-over-year [6]

Core Insights - TJX Companies, Inc. aims to reach approximately 7,000 stores, emphasizing physical expansion as a central part of its operating strategy, with 5,191 stores at the end of Q3 fiscal 2026 [1][8] - The company sees significant growth opportunities in existing markets, particularly in the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Spain, focusing on familiar regions rather than rapid geographic expansion [1][8] Store Growth Strategy - The off-price model's scale is a key strength, with a growing store base enhancing merchandise availability and allowing efficient movement of excess branded inventory, which keeps assortments fresh and encourages frequent shopper visits [2] - Store growth is diversified across various banners, including Marmaxx, HomeGoods, and international divisions, with additional opportunities in joint ventures in Mexico and investments in the Middle East [3] Long-term Expansion Plan - TJX's strategy for reaching 7,000 stores reflects a measured, long-term rollout approach, viewing physical expansion as a sustainable way to broaden global reach and support merchandise flow across economic cycles [4] Competitive Landscape - Burlington Stores, Inc. is also focusing on physical store expansion, raising its 2025 net new store outlook to 104 locations and increasing its 2026 target to at least 110 net new stores, indicating confidence in sustained growth [5] - Walmart Inc. emphasizes the importance of its physical store base within its omnichannel model, focusing on enhancing store productivity and leveraging its existing footprint rather than outlining specific expansion targets [6] Financial Performance - TJX shares have gained 7.6% in the past month, outperforming the industry's growth of 3.2% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 31.06X, with Zacks Consensus Estimates indicating year-over-year earnings growth of 9.4% for fiscal 2026 and 8.9% for fiscal 2027 [10]

Core Insights - TJX has delivered a remarkable 35x return over the last 20 years, with a 154% increase in stock price over the past five years, outperforming the S&P 500's 102% return during the same period [1][2] - A $10,000 investment made in December 2005 would be worth approximately $357,670 today, showcasing the company's resilient business model and consistent financial performance [2] - TJX's off-price retail model, which includes brands like TJ Maxx and Marshalls, allows it to source unsold inventory and closeout sales, providing attractive discounts to customers [4] Financial Performance - Despite weak sales growth in the apparel sector, TJX has maintained consistent quarterly revenue growth, with a 7.5% year-over-year increase in the last quarter and positive comparable sales across all brands [5] - Analysts project a full-year revenue increase of approximately 6% and an earnings per share rise of nearly 10% for TJX [6] Market Position and Strategy - TJX is well-positioned to gain market share as other apparel stores face challenges, benefiting from opportunistic inventory acquisitions that enhance the availability of quality merchandise [6] - The company plans to enter the Spanish market next year, indicating potential for untapped international growth [9] Valuation Considerations - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 32, which is considered high given the expected annual earnings growth of around 9% [8] - Despite the higher valuation, TJX's strong business model justifies a premium, and management continues to explore new growth opportunities [9]