Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market volatility triggered by President Trump's comments regarding Greenland, which initially caused pessimism in the stock market but did not lead to a significant downturn [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company, JR Research, is characterized as an opportunistic investor recognized for identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities that can generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1]. - The investment approach combines timely price action analysis with fundamental analysis, focusing on stocks with strong growth potential and those that are undervalued [1]. - The investing group, Ultimate Growth Investing, specializes in identifying high-potential opportunities across various sectors, particularly in growth stocks with solid fundamentals and turnaround potential [1]. Group 2: Analyst Recognition - The analyst has been acknowledged by TipRanks as a Top Analyst and by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" in various categories including Technology, Software, and Internet [1]. - The analyst's picks have consistently shown market outperformance over time, indicating a successful track record in investment analysis [1].

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock rose nearly 9% to $47.85 following news that Nvidia plans to shift part of its chip manufacturing to Intel's foundry services, marking a strategic adjustment in supply chain under the "American manufacturing" initiative promoted during the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Partnership Details - Nvidia is expected to collaborate with Intel on its Feynman architecture platform, set to launch in 2028, utilizing a strategy of "low-volume, low-tier, non-core" cooperation [1] - Core GPU chips will continue to be manufactured by TSMC, while I/O chips will partially use Intel's 18A process or the 14A process scheduled for mass production in 2028 [1] - Intel's advanced packaging will be utilized through EMIB, with Intel accounting for approximately 25% of the advanced packaging, while TSMC will represent about 75% [1]

Group 1 - Micron Technology will build a new NAND factory in Singapore, investing approximately $24 billion over the next ten years [1] - The new facility will provide 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space and is expected to start production in the second half of 2028, driven by demand from AI and data center applications [1] - WSTS forecasts that the global semiconductor market will grow by 26.3% in 2026, reaching $975 billion, with storage and logic ICs being the main growth drivers [3] Group 2 - TSMC expects capital expenditures for 2026 to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, an increase of 27% to 37% compared to 2025 [2] - Micron's capital expenditure plan for fiscal year 2026 is set to increase from $18 billion to approximately $20 billion, focusing on enhancing HBM capacity and 1-gamma product supply [2] - The cleanroom industry is expanding due to increased investments in high-tech industries, with a trend towards consolidation and scale among service providers [3]

本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 台积电 本文内容由 Ryan Lee (李昊谦) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 2330 TT 中国台湾科技行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 为长远发展承担风险 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 1 月 28 日发布的题为《Risk it for the biscuit》的报告，分析指出，台积电在 2026 年 520-560 亿美元的资本支出指引令市场意外。在可能原因中，中信里 昂指出，在台积电的产能扩张中新厂建设比例高于此前预期，导致各制程节点的资本支出处于经验区间上沿。产能投 产周期较以往更长，这在高企的在建工程中有所体现，即使基础建设支出（土地与厂房）也在加速。因此，分析认为 未来两年供需平衡不会出现实质性变化。 2026 年资本支出为何超预期 60-100 亿美元？ 分析指出，单节点资本支出始终是 ...

证券日报网讯 1月28日，晶晨股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司与台积电保持着长期稳定的 合作关系，台积电为公司多款芯片产品提供晶圆代工服务，具体的业务情况详见公司定期报告。 ...

此外，半导体板块走强， 英特尔、阿斯麦盘前涨逾4%，台积电涨逾2%，英伟达涨近2%。 编辑｜钉钉 1月28日，美股存储板块盘前大涨，希捷科技盘前涨近10%，西部数据涨超7%，闪迪涨近7%，美光科技 涨超4%。 | G | 希捷科技(SEAGATE) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | STX.O | | | | | 371.760 = 735.4万 | 股本 2.18亿 市盈 46.3 | | 万得 | | 13.470 3.76% 换 3.44% 市值 794亿 市净 -1260 | | | 器口 | | 盘前 408.000 +36.240 +9.75% | 美东 07:13 √ | | | | 日K II ▼ 五日 | 中文 周K 月K | | | | 暨加 | 均价:410.861 | | | | 11 909 | 11.60% 卖一 408.580 | 7 | | | | 买一 406.500 | 28 | | | | 15:59 372.140 | 531 | | | | 15:59 372.251 | 100 | | | 371.760 | 0.00% 15:59 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1月28日消息，据台媒报道，台积电嘉义科学园区先进封测厂，近 日 再传出 2 起工安事故，造成 2 名工人受伤，让现场施工人员直呼「越是关键时刻，工 地安全越是不能松懈」。 本月 22 日，台积电举办 AP7 媒体导览时，台积电资深副总经理暨副共同营运长侯永清公开宣示，将与营建伙伴成立「半导体营建工程安全协会」，集合 大家力量把台湾安全提升到另一层次，预计明年初开始运作。 不过，没过几天， AP7 昨天接连发生 2 起工安意外。据了解，这 2 起事件分别造成 2 名工人受伤，轻者脚受伤需缝针、重者脚踝皮开肉绽，送医救治。 台积电在嘉科园区设立 2 座先进封装厂，去年 5 月起发生一连串工安事故，酿 2 死 5 伤，引发社会关注，如今农历年前，再传工安事故，引起外界质疑台 积电工安承诺跳票。 半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： 第一步：扫描下方二维码，关注国芯网微信公众号。 今年元旦起，嘉科工安检查由南科管理局接管，南科管理局长郑秀绒日前的一番话，「台积电是业界领头羊，要做到工安不打折 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed results, with Nasdaq futures up 0.84%, S&P 500 futures up 0.27%, and Dow futures down 0.03% [1] - Major European indices collectively declined, with Germany's DAX down 0.5%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.51%, France's CAC down 1.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.29% [1] - Spot gold surpassed $5,300 per ounce, setting a new historical record, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 23% [1] Company Developments - Amazon announced plans to cut approximately 16,000 corporate jobs to streamline its structure amid AI competition [5] - Tesla's new car registrations in Europe last year totaled 238,656 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.9% [6] - ASML reported Q4 revenue of €9.718 billion, exceeding expectations, and announced a €12 billion stock buyback while planning to streamline its technology and IT departments [7] - Seagate Technology's Q2 revenue grew by 22% year-on-year to $2.83 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.11, both surpassing expectations [8] - AT&T's Q4 revenue was $33.5 billion, with a net addition of 421,000 postpaid wireless phone users, which fell short of expectations [9] - Corning's Q4 sales reached $4.41 billion, with core earnings per share of $0.72, both exceeding expectations [10] - Texas Instruments reported a 10% year-on-year revenue increase to $4.42 billion, with earnings per share of $1.27 [11] - LVMH's revenue exceeded €80.8 billion, with a net profit decline of 13%; Q4 demand in Asia was stronger than expected [12] - Vale's iron ore and copper production reached 336 million tons and 382,000 tons, respectively, marking the highest levels since 2018 [13] Strategic Moves - Guo Minghao, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, indicated that Apple’s pricing strategy for the new iPhone 18 in 2H26 is to "keep prices as low as possible" [4] - But Bin revealed a $9.1 billion US stock portfolio, with Google replacing Nvidia as the top holding, while Netflix, TSMC, and Broadcom were completely sold off [3]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that TSMC's stock rating has been upgraded to "buy" due to a strong outlook despite previous concerns about revenue growth slowing and high valuations [4]. Revenue Performance - TSMC's revenue growth has slowed, primarily due to capacity constraints, but the company is accelerating its expansion plans [4][7]. - In Q4 2025, TSMC achieved revenue of $33.7 billion, exceeding prior guidance, although the growth rate showed a significant decline compared to the previous quarter [7][9]. - The company is facing capacity limitations, which are impacting overall business scale, as evidenced by Nvidia's request for increased H200 chip production [8]. Advanced Process Technology - Revenue from TSMC's 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes constitutes a significant portion of total revenue, with 3nm revenue showing substantial growth [14]. - The increase in 3nm process revenue is expected to enhance gross margins, indicating positive signals for investors [14]. Profitability Metrics - TSMC's gross margin reached 62.3% in Q4, up 3.3 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting strong pricing power [18]. - Operating margin improved to 54%, a 5 percentage point increase year-over-year, showcasing excellent operational efficiency [19]. - Net profit margin was 48.3%, up 5.2 percentage points year-over-year, with earnings per share of $3.14 exceeding market expectations [19]. Financial Health - Cash and marketable securities accounted for 38.7% of total assets, up from 36.2% year-over-year, indicating improved liquidity [21]. - Inventory turnover days decreased from 80 to 74, reflecting strong market demand and enhanced inventory management [21]. - Free cash flow increased by 43% year-over-year, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities [21]. Capacity Expansion Plans - TSMC is focusing on long-term capacity enhancement, with ongoing investments in the U.S., including land purchases in Arizona for new facilities [23][24]. - These long-term plans aim to alleviate capacity constraints that currently limit growth [24]. Future Outlook and Valuation - TSMC expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 38% [26]. - The projected gross margin for this period is between 63% and 65%, indicating sustained pricing power [27]. - The forward P/E ratio has decreased from 29.55 to 23.29, suggesting renewed investment opportunities in TSMC [29].

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 随着人工智能（AI）浪潮席卷全球，半导体产业链成为科技角力的核心战场。然而，根据知名科 技分析网站《Stratechery》的最新报告指出，作为全球晶圆代工龙头的台积电（TSMC），目前 已成为AI 供应链中最大的「风险」来源。这项风险并非源自广受讨论的地缘政治因素，而是源 于台积电早前对市场需求的预判失准，导致未能及早扩充产能，进而造成如今严重的供应瓶颈。 分析师认为，台积电过去几年的投资不足，实际上已成为AI 建设与扩张速度的「实质煞车（de facto brake）」。 报告指出，观察当前的AI 供应链，台积电无疑占据了至关重要的地位。凭借其广泛的代工服务 以及对超大规模云端服务商基础建设的支援，台积电是这波AI 革命不可或缺的推手。由于高效 能运算订单的增长极为强劲，辉达（NVIDIA）甚至已经超越苹果（Apple），成为台积电最大 的客户，这标志着半导体市场结构的重大转变。 只是，面对台积电的供应瓶颈，业界是否会转向其他代工厂？分析师对此持保留态度，并解释了 为何在代工领域进行「多角化」对高效能运算客户而言是一步险棋。尤其是尽管英特尔晶圆代工 （Intel ...