Group 1 - The stock market consists of interconnected companies, where insights from one company's earnings can inform about others [1] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the leading foundry for logic chips, significantly impacting clients like Nvidia [2][3] - TSMC's CEO projected a mid- to high-50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI chips from 2024 to 2029, indicating substantial growth potential [4] Group 2 - Nvidia anticipates global data-center capital expenditures to rise to $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, reflecting a 42% CAGR from $600 billion in 2025 [5] - TSMC's growth projections align closely with Nvidia's, suggesting a confirmation of Nvidia's optimistic outlook [6] - If Nvidia's revenue grows at a 42% CAGR, it could reach approximately $866 billion by 2030, marking a significant increase from the expected $213 billion in fiscal 2026 [7]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 台积电计划在2026年投入创纪录的520亿至560亿美元资本支出，以扩大产能。然而，这预计不足 以满足人工智能芯片的需求。该公司2026年的资本支出预计将比上一年增长37%，表明其计划在 未来三年内继续扩大投资。 创纪录的资本投资仍不足以满足人工智能需求。 台积电首席执行官魏志强在2026年1月14日的财报电话会议上表示："我们上调了人工智能加速器 收入的增长预期，目前预计2024年至2029年五年间的复合年增长率（CAGR）将达到50%中高 段。"该公司还表示，预计2024年起五年间的收入增长（以美元计）将达到25%的复合年增长率。 该公司此前的复合年增长率目标约为20%。 台积电也对"人工智能泡沫"感到担忧 美国市场研究公司国际商业战略公司首席执行官汉德尔·琼斯(Handel Jones)对他的预测进行了量 化，他说："台积电正在谨慎应对过剩的需求。" 他表示："预计到2026年，5纳米及以下工艺的晶圆需求将超过产能25-30%，这意味着供应短缺的 情况可能会持续到2027年。然而，一定程度的供应短缺对台积电是有利的，因为预计未来经济增 速将放缓，产能过剩将会成为 ...

每经AI快讯，1月22日，半导体芯片股盘前普涨。阿斯麦涨2%，台积电涨1.5%，英伟达涨1%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，1月22日，半导体芯片股盘前普涨。阿斯麦涨2%，台积电涨1.5%，英伟达涨1%。 ...

台积电(TSM.US)盘前涨1.43%，报330.78美元。消息面上，因人工智能需求爆发，台积电先进3纳米制 程面临罕见的生产瓶颈，产能已全数被预订至2027年。此外，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在最近的一档播客节目 中首次证实，英伟达已经取代了苹果，成为台积电的最大客户。有业内人士估计称，英伟达现在占到台 积电总营收的13%，位居第一。(格隆汇) | TSM 台积电 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 326.120 ↓ -1.040 -0.32% | | 收盘价 01/21 16:00 美东 | | 330.780 + 4.660 +1.43% | | 盘前价 01/22 04:10 美东 | | 三 24 4 4 5 8 9 8 0 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 333.640 | 开盘价 333.430 | 成交量 1678.98万 | | 最低价 325.680 | 昨收价 327.160 | 成交额 55.21亿 | | 平均价 328.845 | 市盈率TTM 31.16 总市值 1.69万亿 (m) | | | 振 幅 2.43% | 市盈率(静) 31.16 | 总股本 5 ...

Core Insights - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the global semiconductor supply chain, with Nvidia becoming TSMC's largest customer, surpassing Apple due to explosive demand for AI processors [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in customer rankings highlights the strong demand for enterprise-level AI capital expenditures, which is significantly driving up the demand for wafer foundry capacity [3] - Enterprise customers are willing to invest heavily in GPUs for AI capabilities, leading to a demand model that is less price-sensitive compared to traditional consumer electronics [5] - As production capacity shifts towards AI chips, TSMC may be increasing prices for Apple, indicating a potential change in supply chain dynamics due to evolving end-user demand [3][6] Group 2: Historical Context - Nvidia's current position as TSMC's largest customer marks a return to a status it held in the early 2000s before Apple became the dominant client in the 2010s [4] - Apple's long-standing position as TSMC's top customer was primarily driven by its successful iPhone and iPad products, but this has now been disrupted by the AI surge [4][5] Group 3: Future Implications - The dramatic shift in demand may lead to changes in TSMC's pricing strategy and production priorities, potentially affecting Apple's standing as a key client [6] - Nvidia's success is closely tied to the current AI market hype, and any downturn in AI demand could allow Apple to reclaim its position as TSMC's largest customer [6]

英伟达CEO黄仁勋在参加播客节目谈及其自信的商业策略时宣称："当然，没人能通晓一切——开个玩 笑……顺便提一句，张忠谋（台积电创始人）会很高兴得知英伟达现在是台积电最大的客户。"几乎与 此同时，业内近日流传出台积电正调整与苹果供应关系的消息。此前苹果一直享有先进制程的优先供应 权。 有消息称，台积电高管魏哲家疑似近期赴美造访苹果总部，"要求实施近年最大幅度涨价，且苹果可能 不再享有产能优先权。台积电最大客户已变为英伟达，贡献近13%营收"。 两家无晶圆厂竞争对手均急于获取2纳米产线资源，但英伟达凭借AI领域优势据信已占得上风。最新内 部信息显示，苹果已锁定台积电约半数2纳米产能用于A20系列手机芯片。此外，苹果据传正研发仅支 持推理的"Baltra"AI服务器GPU项目，可能采用台积电3纳米N3E或N3P制程，但该项目距量产尚远。 责任编辑：王许宁 英伟达CEO黄仁勋在参加播客节目谈及其自信的商业策略时宣称："当然，没人能通晓一切——开个玩 笑……顺便提一句，张忠谋（台积电创始人）会很高兴得知英伟达现在是台积电最大的客户。"几乎与 此同时，业内近日流传出台积电正调整与苹果供应关系的消息。此前苹果一直享有先进制 ...

参考消息 台湾《联合报》1月21日刊登题为《卢特尼克三个大巴掌，打在谁脸上？》的社论。社论指出，在特朗 普威胁下，台美关税谈判终于以台湾流血输出达成协议。台当局立即启动"认知作战"：赖清德强调谈判 为台湾守住利基，争取到最佳竞争位置。主谈代表郑丽君形容谈判结果为台美互利双赢，绿营更随即带 风向推崇郑丽君立下大功，是参选台北市长挑战蒋万安的绝佳人选。 社论称，台当局对美献城割地，对内却以凯旋之姿假传捷报。美国商务部长卢特尼克接受采访解读美台 关税谈判结果时，得意洋洋道出血淋淋的谈判真相，结结实实打了台当局三个大巴掌。 责任编辑：凌辰 参考消息 台湾《联合报》1月21日刊登题为《卢特尼克三个大巴掌，打在谁脸上？》的社论。社论指出，在特朗 普威胁下，台美关税谈判终于以台湾流血输出达成协议。台当局立即启动"认知作战"：赖清德强调谈判 为台湾守住利基，争取到最佳竞争位置。主谈代表郑丽君形容谈判结果为台美互利双赢，绿营更随即带 风向推崇郑丽君立下大功，是参选台北市长挑战蒋万安的绝佳人选。 社论称，台当局对美献城割地，对内却以凯旋之姿假传捷报。美国商务部长卢特尼克接受采访解读美台 关税谈判结果时，得意洋洋道出血淋淋的谈判真 ...

Group 1 - TSMC is expected to achieve record growth in 2025 driven by AI and advanced process technologies, with a significant increase in capital expenditure to $52-56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations [1] - The increase in capital expenditure aims to accelerate the construction of advanced process capacity to meet the ongoing global demand for AI computing power [1] Group 2 - The Cathay Innovation AI ETF (589110) tracks the Innovation AI Index (950180), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% [1] - The index selects 30 listed companies from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board that cover AI foundational resources, core technology R&D, and industry application, reflecting the overall performance of enterprises in the AI sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter of 2025 experienced a sharp 5% sell-off followed by a quick recovery, with global stocks reaching all-time highs, influenced by concerns over a potential AI bubble and subsequent strong earnings from NVIDIA [4][5]. Portfolio Performance & Attribution - The Polen Global Growth Composite Portfolio returned -2.5% gross of fees and -2.7% net of fees in Q4 2025, underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index, which returned +3.3% [7]. - Top relative contributors included Eli Lilly, Alphabet, and Shopify, while Oracle, Paycom Software, and CoStar Group were the largest detractors [7][8]. - Eli Lilly's stock rallied over 40% in Q4 due to strong financial results and a favorable agreement on drug pricing, despite earlier concerns [8]. - Oracle's performance reversed from the previous quarter, primarily due to skepticism regarding its future revenue tied to OpenAI, impacting its stock negatively [9]. Portfolio Activity - New positions were initiated in Tencent Holdings and Spotify, while positions in Sage Group, Willis Towers Watson, ICON Plc, and Workday were eliminated to fund these investments [10][11]. - Tencent has shown consistent earnings growth of over 30% annually for the past three years, and its valuation is considered reasonable for sustainable revenue growth [11]. - Spotify is viewed as a leading streaming network with significant growth potential, expecting over 20% annual free cash flow growth for the next five years [12]. Outlook - The datacenter capital expenditure cycle is expected to continue, driven by increasing demand and supportive government policies, suggesting a favorable environment for growth in revenues and earnings for key players [17]. - The portfolio is positioned to deliver above-average earnings growth, with a focus on sectors outside of the AI and datacenter themes, ensuring resilience regardless of market drivers [18].