Group 1 - TSMC is expected to achieve record growth in 2025 driven by AI and advanced process technologies, with capital expenditures significantly increased to $52-56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations to accelerate advanced process capacity construction [1] - The global smartphone market is projected to show resilience amidst multiple challenges, with total shipments reaching 1.26 billion units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, primarily driven by strong performance in high-end and foldable models, as well as consumers upgrading in anticipation of price increases [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), focusing on companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including manufacturing, processing, and testing, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the semiconductor materials and equipment sector [1]

Group 1 - Apple has historically been a key driver of TSMC's growth through exclusive chip manufacturing partnerships, but this dynamic is shifting dramatically due to the explosive growth in AI demand from Nvidia [1] - TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, indicated during a visit from Apple executives in August 2025 that Apple would face significant price increases and would no longer have guaranteed priority access to TSMC's wafer production capacity [1] - Nvidia is expected to surpass Apple as TSMC's largest customer in certain quarters of 2025, driven by a surge in high-performance GPU orders fueled by the AI boom [1] Group 2 - Apple's chip product line is broader and more diverse, while Nvidia's products are highly concentrated in advanced process nodes with significant wafer demand [2] - Despite Apple's long-term importance to TSMC over the next decade, the current market environment favors high-performance computing chip companies like Nvidia and AMD, indicating that Apple will need to compete for advanced process capacity in the next one to two years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become TSMC's largest customer, surpassing Apple, which previously held this position for many years [1][3][5]. Group 1: Nvidia's Rise - Nvidia's revenue has surged due to the booming demand for AI GPUs, with enterprise clients willing to spend billions on these processors [2][5]. - Nvidia's sales are projected to grow by 62% by January 2026, while Apple's product revenue is expected to grow only by 3.6% by December 2025 [5][7]. - The demand for high-performance chips driven by AI is significantly outpacing the growth of smartphone sales, which have plateaued [7][8]. Group 2: Apple's Challenges - Apple is facing increased chip prices from TSMC and may no longer have priority production rights, which could hinder its competitiveness [2][3]. - Apple's revenue growth rate has slowed to single digits, contrasting sharply with Nvidia's rapid growth [7][8]. - The competition for TSMC's capacity has intensified, with Nvidia and AMD taking up more space on the production lines, making it harder for Apple to secure its needs [3][11]. Group 3: TSMC's Performance - TSMC reported a 36% revenue growth, reaching $122 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% in the last quarter [5][8]. - The sales of high-performance computing chips, including AI chips, grew by 48%, while smartphone revenue only increased by 11% [7][8]. - TSMC's capital expenditures are expected to rise significantly, indicating a strong investment in future technologies [7][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The shift in customer dynamics at TSMC reflects broader industry trends, with AI driving demand for advanced chips while smartphone growth stagnates [7][15]. - Nvidia's business model allows for high margins, but it faces risks related to inventory surplus, while TSMC must balance capacity expansion with market demand [18][19]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a transformation, with Nvidia's influence growing at the expense of traditional players like Apple [19][20].

截至2026年1月22日 10:39，中证全指集成电路指数下跌0.52%。成分股方面涨跌互现，龙芯中科领涨 7.04%，电科芯片上涨6.12%，普冉股份上涨5.97%；汇成股份领跌，晶晨股份、长电科技跟跌。 东海证券指出，台积电2025年在AI与先进制程双引擎驱动下实现业绩创纪录增长，公司将2026年资本 支出大幅提升至520-560亿美元，远超市场预期，旨在加速先进制程产能建设，全力应对全球AI算力芯 片的持续紧缺需求。当前电子行业需求持续复苏，供给有效出清，存储芯片价格上涨，我国国产化力度 超预期。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证全指集成电路指数前十大权重股分别为寒武纪、中芯国际、海光 信息、兆易创新、澜起科技、豪威集团、紫光国微、长电科技、芯原股份、通富微电，前十大权重股合 计占比53.66%。 集成电路ETF(562820)跟踪中证全指集成电路指数，是布局全产业链芯片龙头的便捷工具。 没有股票账户的场外投资者还可以通过集成电路ETF联接基金(022350)把握板块投资机会。 集邦咨询报告显示，全球8英寸晶圆供需正步入失衡期。受台积电、三星电子战略性削减产能影响， 2026年全球8英寸代工总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data center sector is driving significant growth in the power equipment industry, with capital expenditures showing a high growth trend, particularly among major overseas players, while domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent are experiencing a slowdown in their capital spending [1][3]. Demand Side - Overseas capital expenditures in Q3 2025 reached $99.617 billion, marking an 80.39% year-on-year increase and a 9.54% quarter-on-quarter rise [3]. - Alibaba's capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 31.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.10% year-on-year increase but a decline of 18.55% quarter-on-quarter. The company reiterated its three-year investment framework of 380 billion yuan, indicating potential for further investment [3]. - Tencent's capital expenditure was 13 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 24.05% year-on-year and 32.05% quarter-on-quarter, with a downward revision of its annual guidance, indicating spending below initial expectations [3]. Supply Chain - NVIDIA reported total revenue of $57.006 billion in Q3 2025, with data center product revenue reaching $51.215 billion, a historical peak, showing a 24.62% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 66.44% year-on-year increase, accounting for over 89% of total revenue [4]. - TSMC's revenue for December 2025 was 335 billion new Taiwan dollars, a 20.4% year-on-year increase but a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter decline, achieving a record high for the same period [4]. - The CPU price index in November 2025 was 99.04, slightly up from 98.20 in October, while DRAM spot prices surged from $27.14 on November 17, 2025, to $66.50 by January 16, 2026, reflecting a more than 145% increase over two months, indicating strong server demand [4]. Application Side - The number of models in use is steadily increasing, with application deployments becoming more frequent. Token usage from January 5 to January 12, 2026, reached 7.65 trillion, an 18.97% increase from the previous period [4]. - In Q3 2025, the release of models such as Grok4Fast, GPT-5nano, and gpt-oss-20B led to a decline of over 50% in the price of tokens for models scoring above 40 on the ArtificialAnalysis intelligence index [4]. Investment Recommendations - The construction of AI data centers is expected to drive demand for HVDC and SST technologies. The global data center installation capacity is projected to increase by approximately 14 GW in 2024, with major cloud providers maintaining high capital expenditures. TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to reach $52-56 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 30% [5]. - The increasing power density of data center cabinets is likely to enhance the penetration of HVDC and SST technologies, with smart busbars expected to see widespread adoption [5]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongheng Electric (002364), Oulu Tong (300870), Weiteng Electric (688226), and Sunshine Power (300274). Stocks to watch include Kehua Data (002335), Keda (002518), Kelu Electronics (002121), Magmi Tech (688676), and Sifang Co. (601126) [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine and its global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Japan's fiscal crisis and Trump's actions have led to a "triple kill" in the US financial market, with some suggesting Europe may be creating market turmoil to pressure Trump [1] - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, warns that Trump's radical policies may trigger a global capital war, which could lead to inflation or currency depreciation and increase foreign investors' concerns [1] - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to sell US Treasuries by the end of the month due to credit risks from Trump's policies, holding about $100 million in US Treasuries at the end of 2025 [1] - The world's largest AI open - source community Hugging Face states that DeepSeek R - 1 has broken barriers, leading to China's AI reshaping the global landscape with more model downloads than the US [1] - Tesla will restart its supercomputer project Dojo 3, marking a major shift in its chip strategy towards "space artificial intelligence computing" [1] - Japan's government bond market has crashed, forcing the Bank of Japan to consider restarting unlimited bond - buying, which may lead to the yen breaking the 160 exchange - rate line [1] - Foreign investors account for about 65% of Japan's monthly government bond cash trading volume, and more Japanese pension funds may return to Japan, impacting the US Treasury market [1] - Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons and aiming to be among the top 10 countries in gold reserves [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions such as seizing control of Venezuela's oil and threatening to buy Greenland have brought great uncertainty to the global political and economic order, and it has imposed punitive tariffs on 8 European countries, with European countries planning counter - tariffs [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [2] - TSMC estimates its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a 27% - 37% increase year - on - year, signaling the continued boom in AI and restoring investors' confidence in AI demand [2]

据智通财经消息，近日，台积电拟持续加大对先进封装技术的投资，其计划升级龙潭AP3工厂现有的 InFO设备，同时在嘉义AP7工厂新建一条WMCM生产线。到2026年底，台积电WMCM产能将达到每月 约6万片晶圆，并有望在2027年翻一番，达到每月12万片。2026年台积电资本开支指引为520-560亿美 元，其中明确将10-20%用于先进封装、测试及掩膜版制造等领域，较此前约10%的比例显著上修，反映 了公司对先进封装战略地位的极度重视，预计其先进封装收入贡献将从2025年的约8%提升至2026年的 10%以上，未来五年增速将高于公司整体水平。 具体来看，台积电本次新建的WMCM（晶圆级芯片模组）作为面向高端AI芯片的先进封装技术，是继 CoWoS之后进一步提升芯片集成度和性能的核心路径，其产能的快速扩张旨在解决当前先进封装产能 供不应求的瓶颈，满足下一代AI训练/推理芯片对更大带宽、更高存储容量和更优散热性能的需求。 据报道，苹果公司Apple Intelligence与谷歌Gemini深度结合，计划为iPhone 18搭载的A20系列芯片过渡 到2nm工艺，同时将该芯片的封装技术从目前的InFO（集成扇出型 ...

2026 年 01 月 22 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 12 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期--台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港 股美股） 中价格带茶饮强阿尔法，成长空间广阔--古茗/社会服务(01364/2146) 点评报告（港股美股） 2025Q4 业绩预计同环比减亏明显，2026 年新车周期可期--江淮汽车/商用车(600418/212806) 公司点评 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期-- 台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 联系人：邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 事件: 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现收入 10,460.9 亿元新台币/337.3 亿美 元（新台币价 ...

| | | 全球主要股票指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 49077.23 | 588.64 | 1.21% | | | 纳斯达克 | 23224.82 | 270.50 | 1.18% | | | 标普500 | 6875.62 | 78.76 | 1.16% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5882.88 | -9.20 | -0.16% | | | 英国富时100 | 10138.09 | 11.31 | 0.11% | | | 法国CAC40 | 8069.17 | 6.59 | 0.08% | | | 德国DAX | 24560.98 | -142.14 | -0.58% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1125.93 | 17.60 | 1.59% | | ## | 上证指数 | 4116.94 | 3.29 | 0.08% | | | 深证成指 | 14255.13 | 99.50 - | 0.70% | | | | 创业板指 gelongnul com 329 ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a significant influx of capital, driven by strong fundamentals and the robust demand for AI computing power, as evidenced by TSMC's recent financial performance [1][2] - TSMC reported a record revenue of $33.7 billion for Q4 2025 and raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, indicating a long-term trend in AI computing demand supported by solid orders [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue is projected to exceed $33.7 billion, with advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) contributing 77% of total wafer revenue [1] - The company highlighted that AI chips and high-end consumer electronics are driving the demand for advanced semiconductor capacity [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Industry Trends - TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure guidance allocates 70%-80% to advanced processes, 10% to special processes, and 10%-20% to advanced packaging/testing, reflecting a strong commitment to AI chip demand [2] - The semiconductor industry's focus may shift from merely reducing transistor size to better integration through advanced packaging and chiplet integration, as the costs of advanced process investments rise [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI servers is tightening the supply of traditional DRAM and NAND flash memory, leading to a price increase [2] - The current supply-demand imbalance in the memory chip market is expected to persist, resulting in a "volume and price increase" scenario that enhances the profitability of related companies [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies benefiting from advanced process expansion, such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Changdian Technology [3] - Companies in the storage chip sector experiencing price increases, like Zhaoyi Innovation and Baiwei Storage, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3] - Full industry chain leaders capitalizing on domestic opportunities, such as SMIC and Huahong, should be monitored [3] - The expanding demand in the EDA and IP sectors presents additional investment prospects [3]