2026 年 01 月 22 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 12 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期--台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港 股美股） 中价格带茶饮强阿尔法，成长空间广阔--古茗/社会服务(01364/2146) 点评报告（港股美股） 2025Q4 业绩预计同环比减亏明显，2026 年新车周期可期--江淮汽车/商用车(600418/212806) 公司点评 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期-- 台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 联系人：邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 事件: 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现收入 10,460.9 亿元新台币/337.3 亿美 元（新台币价 ...

| | | 全球主要股票指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 49077.23 | 588.64 | 1.21% | | | 纳斯达克 | 23224.82 | 270.50 | 1.18% | | | 标普500 | 6875.62 | 78.76 | 1.16% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5882.88 | -9.20 | -0.16% | | | 英国富时100 | 10138.09 | 11.31 | 0.11% | | | 法国CAC40 | 8069.17 | 6.59 | 0.08% | | | 德国DAX | 24560.98 | -142.14 | -0.58% | | | 俄罗斯RTS | 1125.93 | 17.60 | 1.59% | | ## | 上证指数 | 4116.94 | 3.29 | 0.08% | | | 深证成指 | 14255.13 | 99.50 - | 0.70% | | | | 创业板指 gelongnul com 329 ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a significant influx of capital, driven by strong fundamentals and the robust demand for AI computing power, as evidenced by TSMC's recent financial performance [1][2] - TSMC reported a record revenue of $33.7 billion for Q4 2025 and raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, indicating a long-term trend in AI computing demand supported by solid orders [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue is projected to exceed $33.7 billion, with advanced processes (3nm, 5nm, 7nm) contributing 77% of total wafer revenue [1] - The company highlighted that AI chips and high-end consumer electronics are driving the demand for advanced semiconductor capacity [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Industry Trends - TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure guidance allocates 70%-80% to advanced processes, 10% to special processes, and 10%-20% to advanced packaging/testing, reflecting a strong commitment to AI chip demand [2] - The semiconductor industry's focus may shift from merely reducing transistor size to better integration through advanced packaging and chiplet integration, as the costs of advanced process investments rise [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI servers is tightening the supply of traditional DRAM and NAND flash memory, leading to a price increase [2] - The current supply-demand imbalance in the memory chip market is expected to persist, resulting in a "volume and price increase" scenario that enhances the profitability of related companies [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on companies benefiting from advanced process expansion, such as Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Changdian Technology [3] - Companies in the storage chip sector experiencing price increases, like Zhaoyi Innovation and Baiwei Storage, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3] - Full industry chain leaders capitalizing on domestic opportunities, such as SMIC and Huahong, should be monitored [3] - The expanding demand in the EDA and IP sectors presents additional investment prospects [3]

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) has been a hot stock in recent months. As the world’s largest chipmaker, TSMC serves as a foundry for some of the biggest semiconductor companies in the world, including Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Broadcom (AVGO). Shares are off to a great start in 2026, up about 9% since the beginning of the year. But one thing that may be overlooked about TSMC is it’s burgeoning status as a dependable dividend stock. Taiwan Semiconductor just announced a ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent financial report has provided strong validation for the AI industry, showcasing significant growth and robust capital expenditure plans that signal future demand for chip manufacturing [6][9]. Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue growth for eight consecutive quarters and a gross margin surpassing 60%, comparable to software giants [6][12]. - The company has projected capital expenditures of $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026, a substantial increase from $40.9 billion in 2025, indicating confidence in future orders from clients like NVIDIA and AMD [9][28]. Market Dynamics - TSMC's capital expenditure is primarily allocated for building production lines and purchasing equipment, which typically takes 2-3 years to yield results, thus reflecting anticipated growth in orders from chip design companies [9][28]. - The demand for AI computing chips has surged, leading to a shortage of 3nm capacity, with TSMC reportedly halting new 3nm orders due to full capacity bookings for the next two years [18][25]. Competitive Landscape - TSMC's dominance in the 3nm process technology is underscored by its ability to maintain high gross margins, driven by strong demand from AI chip manufacturers [14][18]. - Competitors like Samsung and Intel have struggled to keep pace, with TSMC's 3nm technology remaining unmatched in terms of performance and yield [18][20]. Advanced Packaging - TSMC's advanced packaging technology, particularly CoWoS, has become critical for AI chips, with significant demand leading to a substantial increase in its capital expenditure allocation for this segment [19][20]. - The company has captured a significant share of the advanced packaging market, with NVIDIA alone accounting for approximately 57.4% of TSMC's current capacity [22][20]. Client Relationships - TSMC's collaboration with NVIDIA has evolved from design processes to system-level integration, indicating a deepening partnership that may see NVIDIA surpassing Apple as TSMC's largest client by 2026 [25][28]. - The shift in client dynamics highlights TSMC's reliance on major customers for securing orders and mitigating risks associated with advanced process technologies [25][28].

Group 1 - Apple is accelerating its AI strategy by developing an AI wearable device called "Pin" and plans to significantly revamp Siri into its first AI chatbot, codenamed "Campos" [2] - Intel has secured a substantial contract with the U.S. military for chip supply under the SHIELD project, with a maximum limit of $151 billion, boosting expectations for its defense electronics business [2] - TSMC is facing production bottlenecks in its advanced 3nm process due to surging AI demand, with all capacity booked until 2027, highlighting strong demand in the global semiconductor supply chain [2] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China to revive the AI chip market, emphasizing that AI represents a "platform shift" requiring trillions in infrastructure investment, with global AI venture capital expected to exceed $100 billion by 2025 [2] Group 2 - Alibaba's Qianwen series model downloads have surpassed 1 billion, making it the most popular open-source AI model globally, reinforcing the company's technological leadership in AI [4] - Vanke's bond extension proposal for "21 Vanke 02" has been approved, marking the company's first successful bond extension, with a scale of 1.1 billion yuan [4] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 7.6 billion to 8.2 billion yuan in 2025 due to industry adjustments and project sales underperformance, focusing on core areas for business transformation [4] - Cangge Mining has voluntarily reduced its potassium chloride production capacity from 2 million tons per year to 1.2 million tons based on resource conditions, without affecting existing production and sales plans [4] Group 3 - AI startup Anthropic PBC is raising at least $1 billion from investors, with annual revenue run rate doubling since last summer and projected to exceed $9 billion by the end of 2025 [6] - Meta's Super Intelligence Lab delivered its first batch of key AI models in January, with plans to focus on consumer products over the next two years [6] - Microsoft has resolved access issues with its 365 services and has introduced a basic subscription version of Microsoft 365 in China for an annual fee of 150 yuan [6] - Tesla clarified that there are no plans for layoffs or production cuts at its Berlin factory, while its Robotaxi fleet has reached 200 vehicles [6] Group 4 - Samsung Electronics is diversifying its HBM supply chain and has reported Q4 sales of 1.29 trillion won, a 2.3% year-on-year increase, with operating profit rising 62% [10] - Toyota anticipates a cost burden increase of 5 trillion yen over 4.5 years and plans to raise prices for some suppliers while sharing chip data among Japanese automakers [10] - SK Hynix is projected to achieve record revenue and profit by Q4 2025, with plans to distribute a record year-end bonus of 640,000 yuan per employee [10] - LG Electronics is testing sodium-ion battery production at its Nanjing factory and has launched AI air conditioning products overseas [10] Group 5 - Volkswagen Group expects a net cash flow of 6 billion euros in the automotive sector for FY2025, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by lower operating capital and capital expenditures [13] - Rio Tinto anticipates an 11% increase in copper production to 883,000 tons by 2025, with a strong rebound in Q4 iron ore production [13] - Mercedes-Benz will unveil the 2026 S-Class on January 29, featuring heated seat belts to enhance low-temperature range and safety [13] - ASML's target price has been raised by JPMorgan from 587 euros to 800 euros, reflecting optimistic market expectations for semiconductor equipment demand [13]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's stock experienced a decline of 4.45% on January 20, reversing most of the gains made after its earnings report, amidst a broader market downturn [1] Financial Performance - TSMC reported diluted earnings per ADR of $3.14 for Q4, representing a 35% increase year-over-year [2] - The company's revenue for the quarter reached $33.73 billion, up 25.5% from the previous year [2] - Gross margin improved to 62.3%, compared to 59.5% a year ago [2] Market Position and Analyst Ratings - TSMC is recognized as the world's largest chip foundry and a key supplier for major companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom [1][4] - TD Cowen raised its price target for TSMC to $370 from $325, maintaining a hold rating, citing strong quarterly results [4] - Barclays increased its price target for TSMC to $450 from $380, maintaining an overweight rating, and described the Q4 results as "strong across the board" [5] Stock Performance - TSMC ADRs have increased approximately 9.2% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has decreased by 0.7% during the same period [3] Investor Activity - Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, purchased 5,542 shares of TSMC valued at around $1.9 million following the earnings report [5] Technical Analysis - A veteran trader noted that TSMC's margins are a key catalyst for the stock, suggesting that the focus should be on margin performance [6] - The trader also identified a bullish technical setup prior to the earnings report, indicating favorable momentum indicators [7]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is identified as a strong momentum stock with a Momentum Style Score of A and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating potential for near-term price increases [2][3][11] Company Performance - TSMC shares have increased by 5.8% over the past week, matching the performance of the Zacks Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry [5] - Over the past month, TSMC's stock price has risen by 10.17%, aligning with the industry's performance [5] - In the last quarter, TSMC shares have gained 8.5%, and over the past year, they have surged by 49.59%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which increased by only 1.25% and 14.72% respectively [6] Trading Volume - TSMC's average 20-day trading volume is 11,679,398 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the last two months, 4 earnings estimates for TSMC have been revised upwards, while only 1 estimate was revised downwards, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $12.24 to $13.72 [9] - For the next fiscal year, 2 estimates have moved upwards with no downward revisions, indicating a positive earnings outlook [9]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is that the stock market surged following Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum, alleviating concerns over potential military actions regarding Greenland [1][2]. - Trump's statement that he would not use military force to acquire Greenland boosted market confidence, leading to a significant rise in major stock indices, with the Dow Jones up approximately 500 points and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both rising over 1% [1][2][3]. - Following Trump's comments, U.S. Treasury prices increased, resulting in lower yields, while the fear index (VIX) dropped significantly, and gold prices saw a reduction in gains [3][6]. Group 2 - Individual stocks, particularly in the technology sector, experienced substantial gains, with Intel rising by 10.48% and AMD increasing by 8.33% [7][8]. - The overall performance of the tech sector was strong, contributing to the positive market sentiment, and the Chinese concept stock index also rose by about 2%, indicating potential positive performance in the domestic market [8].

【导读】特朗普改口，市场暴涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚好消息，涨跌全看特朗普，外围市场全线大涨了！ 一起看看发生了什么事情。 1月21日晚间，美股三大指数高开高走，道指涨约500点，纳斯达克指数涨超1%，标普500指数也涨超1%。 在特朗普对世界经济论坛表示他不会以武力收购格陵兰之后，股市上涨，市场对这一问题的担忧缓解；此前该担忧曾扰动市场并引发资金 撤离美国资产。 特朗普在达沃斯的讲话中谈到，他认为美国在北约承担了财政和军事负担。以下这段话提振了股市： 特朗普还在达沃斯讲话中表示，他将要求国会落实其提出的10%信用卡利率上限方案。鉴于国会内部支持不足，这一前景仍不确定。该表 态推动美股银行股上涨。 此外，美国财长贝森特周三在达沃斯对记者表示，特朗普政府"并不担心"前一交易日的抛售。 分析师表示，关键不在于特朗普说了什么，而在于他没有说什么。"他没有重申对欧洲的关税威胁；他没有说政府会动用武力夺取格陵 兰；他也没有说要给信用卡利率设上限，而是让国会去做。这更像是在降低实质内容的烈度，尽管风格仍然是典型的特朗普" 。 摩根大通资产管理的Bob Michele表示，周二市场的抛售是在向特朗普政府传递信息 ...