黄金将恢复上涨，年中最高可达每盎司6200美元； 铜和铝供应将进一步短缺，中期内应支撑价格，而结构性驱动因素（如电气化）支撑长期需 求； 布伦特原油6月为每桶65美元，12月为67美元/桶，而目前为71.3美元/桶。 来源：市场资讯 来源：金十 瑞银集团（UBS）重申了对黄金的积极看多立场，预计在未来数月内，国际现货黄金目标价将大幅攀升 至6200美元/盎司。 该团队的Dominic Schnider表示："1月底大宗商品价格波动较大，但贵金属、石油和工业金属均实现当 月上涨。随着这种波动开始减弱，我们认为大宗商品的基本面前景依然支持看涨，主要受供需失衡、地 缘政治变化和结构性趋势的驱动。" Schnider预计： 在地缘政治层面，瑞银分析师指出，全球宏观不确定性仍将是市场面临的长期主基调。特别是近期美国 与伊朗之间的紧张局势不断升级，使得中东地区的地缘政治风险持续处于高位。分析人士指出："该地 区部署了两艘航母、战斗机和加油机，美国的军事集结规模现在已超过今年年初特朗普推翻马杜罗前几 周在委内瑞拉海岸的规模。是否能与伊朗达成协议尚待观察，因为近期针对伊朗的军事行动似乎越来越 可能发生。" 宏观经济环境同样为 ...

Group 1 - UBS Group AG has become one of the largest international diversified banks following its merger with Credit Suisse in 2023, boasting a market capitalization exceeding $130 billion [1] - The merger positions UBS as a significant player in the global financial landscape, enhancing its capabilities and market reach [1] Group 2 - The author of the article has extensive experience in delivering strategic insights and analysis within the private banking sector, focusing on corporate valuation and investment opportunities [1] - Novo Capital was established to provide out-of-consensus information and investment ideas, aiming to generate "alpha" for its clients [1]

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--UBS Investment Bank today announced the coupon payment for the ETRACS Alerian MLP Index ETN Series B (NYSE Arca: "AMUB†), traded on the NYSE Arca. NYSE Ticker ETN Name and Prospectus Supplement* Coupon Valuation Date Ex- Date Record Date Payment Date Coupon Amount Payment Schedule Current Yield (annualized)** AMUB ETRACS Alerian MLP Index ETN Series B 2/17/26 3/2/26 3/2/26 3/10/26 $0.3202 Quarterly 5.95% * The table above provides a hyperlink to the relevant prospectu. ...

Core Viewpoint - An investment advisory team managing $1.3 billion at UBS has transitioned to an independent wealth management firm, Hampton Bluff Capital Partners, with support from Elevation Point [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - Hampton Bluff Capital Partners, based in Atlanta, has launched as a registered investment advisory firm this week [1]. - The team is led by industry veterans Krunch Kloberdanz and Justin Runager [1]. - This marks the third breakaway team to establish a registered investment advisory (RIA) on Elevation Point's platform this year [1].

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focused on UBS Group AG, highlighting its recent performance and strategic initiatives [1] - UBS Group AG is positioned to capitalize on market trends, with a strong emphasis on wealth management and investment banking services [1] - The analysis indicates that UBS has seen significant growth in its assets under management, reflecting a robust demand for its financial services [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the competitive landscape in the investment banking sector, noting that UBS is well-equipped to navigate challenges and leverage opportunities [1] - UBS's financial results demonstrate resilience, with key metrics showing improvement compared to previous periods [1] - The analysis suggests that UBS's strategic focus on technology and innovation will enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency [1]

Core Insights - Despite fiscal stimulus measures from major economies like the US, Japan, and Germany, the global impact is expected to be much lower than market expectations, with UBS projecting a contribution of only 8 basis points to global GDP growth in 2026 and a potential drag of 14 basis points in 2027 [1][5][8] Group 1: Global Fiscal Position - UBS's analysis indicates that the global fiscal stance is only slightly better than neutral, with the predicted fiscal shock for 2026 and 2027 being close to zero [5][6] - Historical data shows that the fiscal stance has fluctuated significantly over the past 20 years, but the predicted values for 2026 and 2027 are relatively mild compared to past years [5][6] Group 2: US Fiscal Stimulus - The US "Big Beautiful" plan is estimated to contribute approximately 45 basis points to economic growth, but after accounting for tariff impacts and state and local government drag, the net fiscal shock is around 30 basis points [6][7] - Historical context reveals that in the past 20 years, there have been nine years of fiscal stimulus in the US, all exceeding the predicted level for 2026, indicating that the current stimulus is not particularly remarkable [6][7] Group 3: Japan and Europe - Japan's fiscal stance has only loosened by 0.9 percentage points of GDP so far, which is insufficient to significantly boost global economic growth [7][8] - Germany's fiscal stimulus is now expected to be about 1 percentage point of GDP, which constitutes roughly two-thirds of the total stimulus in the Eurozone, but this is still below market expectations [7][8]

Group 1: Investment Grade Bond Sales - UBS raised its 2026 forecast for U.S. tech investment grade bond sales to $360 billion from $300 billion, reflecting increased capital expenditure by major tech firms [1] - The overall forecast for U.S. investment grade debt issuance was increased from $1.725 trillion to $1.8 trillion, with tech accounting for 20% of that total [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Hyperscalers - UBS anticipates aggregate capital expenditure by hyperscalers to approach $770 billion for 2026, which is approximately 23% higher than previous forecasts [1] - Hyperscaler public debt issuance could rise by an additional $40 billion to $50 billion, reaching up to $240 billion [1] Group 3: Non-Dollar Markets and Global Funding - UBS expects an increase in non-U.S. dollar supply in the tech sector, as evidenced by Alphabet's recent bond deals in the Swiss franc and sterling markets [1] - The shift of big tech firms to tap debt markets for funding AI data centers has led to a surge in issuance across various debt markets [1] Group 4: Leveraged Loans Forecast - UBS cut its U.S. leveraged loans forecast to $360 billion from $450 billion, citing expectations that AI-related disruptions could limit supply [1] - Concerns regarding the impact of AI on traditional business models have increased, leading to potential wider spreads in the leveraged loan space [1]

Core Insights - Global financial firms, including Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp and Julius Baer Group, are expanding in India by establishing global capability centres to leverage local talent and competitive costs [1][3] - The expansion involves hiring at least 1,000 people collectively this year in cities like Chennai and Hyderabad [2] - The move is influenced by US immigration policies that complicate the deployment of Indian talent overseas, prompting firms to localize roles in India [4] Group 1: Expansion Plans - Sumitomo Mitsui and Julius Baer are joining US firms like Charles Schwab and Vanguard in hiring initiatives [2] - The roles being created will focus on research, payments, operations, and digital assets, with an emphasis on artificial intelligence and automation [6] - UBS Group AG has also opened a new global capability centre in Hyderabad, indicating a trend among global firms [6] Group 2: Industry Trends - India's role as a hub for global capability centres is growing, driven by the need for regulatory capabilities and cost-effective talent [3][5] - Rising compliance costs and stricter visa regulations are accelerating the shift towards India's GCC industry [5] - Other global financial firms, such as Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, are also establishing GCCs in India [5]

Group 1 - UBS Group has downgraded the rating of the US telecommunications services sector from "attractive" to "neutral" [1]

Group 1 - UBS Group has upgraded the rating of the US industrial sector from neutral to attractive [1]