Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company operates with a team of experienced and qualified news journalists across key finance and investing hubs including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content delivered by the team includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Utilization - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all published content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Group 1 - Several international financial groups, including Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. and Julius Baer Group, are expanding their presence in India by establishing global capability centres (GCCs) [1] - The recruitment drive could total at least 1,000 hires this year across locations such as Chennai and Hyderabad, joining US firms like Charles Schwab and Vanguard [1][2] - The increasing importance of India as a base for GCCs is attributed to its large, cost-effective talent market, which supports international business operations [2] Group 2 - Stricter US immigration policies, including higher visa charges and tighter reviews of skilled-worker routes, are prompting employers to place more jobs in India [3] - Rising compliance costs and tightening visa regimes are accelerating the shift to India's GCC industry [3][4] - Financial organizations, including Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, are also establishing GCCs in India [4] Group 3 - New positions being added will cover functions such as research, payments, operational support, and digital assets, with a growing focus on artificial intelligence and automation [5] - UBS Group AG recently launched a new GCC in Hyderabad, planning to hire close to 3,000 people over the next two years [5][6] - UBS has had teams in India for over a decade, supporting its activities in technology and finance [6]

Economic Developments - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a rise in total sight deposits to CHF 452.7 billion for the week ending February 13, up from CHF 447.4 billion the previous week, indicating a shift in liquidity management [2][8] - Japan's Q4 GDP grew by only 0.2% annualized, significantly below the market expectation of 1.6%, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to continue its hawkish tightening path due to persistent inflationary pressures [3][8] Corporate Developments - AI safety company Anthropic opened a new operations hub in Bengaluru, India, following a $30 billion funding round that valued the company at $380 billion, with India becoming the second-largest market for its Claude AI [4][8] - UBS Group AG faced backlash in China after its UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF switched its valuation benchmark, resulting in a 31.5% drop in net asset value, leading to a temporary suspension of trading [5][8] Geopolitical Trends - Iran is negotiating the removal of U.S. sanctions, offering to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in exchange for economic relief, including joint investments in oil and gas fields and civilian aircraft purchases [6][8] - Thailand's economy is showing signs of a U-shaped recovery, with a maintained GDP growth forecast of 2.0% for 2026, supported by a resilient manufacturing base and a shift towards high-value medical tourism [7][8]

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices is prompting some vault operators to forgo insuring higher-value gold bars due to nearing insurance limits [1][2] - Many operators are adopting "self-insurance" strategies, believing their existing security measures are sufficient to protect high-value assets [1][2] - The insurance market for gold is evolving, with some institutions facing rising premiums while others are establishing specialized teams to underwrite precious metals [3][4] Group 1 - Vault operators are shifting gold reserves between locations to meet insurance requirements, as single-location coverage limits are being reached [1][3] - The definition of "location" is crucial for insurance purposes, allowing for strategic distribution of gold across multiple warehouses [3] - The risk of theft is heightened during transportation, making it a significant concern for operators [3] Group 2 - Retail demand for gold in markets like India and the U.S. is driving business expansion, leading to an increase in the overall circulation of gold [4] - Some mid-sized custodians are now retaining part of the risk on their balance sheets, a shift from previously insuring every dollar of gold exposure [2] - Research commissioned by custodians is assessing potential losses from theft, indicating the high security needed to protect large quantities of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which has influenced market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant rebound in gold prices after a period of volatility [3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On February 14, 2026, gold prices in China saw significant increases, with Chow Sang Sang's price rising to 1551 RMB per gram, up 27 RMB from the previous day, and Lao Miao Gold increasing to 1565 RMB per gram, up 36 RMB [5]. - The international futures market reacted sharply, with April gold futures closing at $5063.80 per ounce, a 2.33% increase, and March silver futures at $77.27 per ounce, up 2.10% [4]. - The fluctuations in gold prices are closely tied to the movements in the international market, with domestic pricing reflecting changes in global gold prices almost immediately [4][5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary factors influencing gold prices include geopolitical risks, market expectations regarding central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve, and speculative trading activities [7][8]. - Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing a solid support base for prices [7]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts, particularly following the soft CPI data, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors [7][8]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Major investment banks, including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank, have increased their holdings in gold ETFs, indicating a bullish outlook on gold despite recent volatility [8][9]. - Research reports from various banks have raised their price targets for gold by the end of 2026, with Deutsche Bank setting a target of $6000 per ounce and JPMorgan raising it to $6150 per ounce, citing ongoing demand from central banks and geopolitical risks [9]. - UBS has provided a scenario analysis suggesting that if geopolitical risks escalate, gold prices could reach $7200 per ounce, while maintaining current monetary policies could see prices drop to around $4600 [9]. Group 4: Changing Valuation Logic - The traditional correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields is weakening, with a growing emphasis on gold's monetary attributes as a store of value amid changing geopolitical dynamics [10][11]. - The total value of global gold reserves is now comparable to that of U.S. Treasury debt, indicating a significant shift in gold's role within the global financial system [11].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Credit Strategy Chief Matthew Mish warns that the rapid disruptive changes brought by artificial intelligence may impact the credit market in the next phase, leading to increased corporate default risks and systemic credit tightening [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Credit Market - Recent stock market reactions indicate that software companies affected by the AI boom are facing significant operational pressures, with potential corporate loan defaults amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars in the next year [2]. - UBS's baseline scenario predicts that by the end of this year, the scale of defaults in leveraged loans and private credit could increase by $75 billion to $120 billion [2]. - By the end of 2026, default rates for leveraged loans and private credit are expected to rise to 2.5% and 4% respectively, corresponding to market sizes of approximately $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion [2]. Group 2: AI Transformation and Risks - Mish suggests that the pace of AI transformation may accelerate, with extreme scenarios potentially doubling the expected default rates, triggering what is referred to as "tail risk" in the market [3]. - The evolution of these risks depends on the pace of AI application by large enterprises, the speed of model iterations, and other uncertainties, with tail risks not yet realized but trending in that direction [3]. - Leveraged loans and private credit primarily serve non-investment grade, high-debt companies, which are considered high-risk areas in corporate credit [3]. Group 3: Classification of AI Companies - Mish categorizes AI sector companies into three types: foundational large model developers, investment-grade software companies with robust finances, and high-debt private equity-controlled software and data service companies [3]. - In the context of rapid disruptive changes, the likelihood of the third category of companies becoming winners is deemed the lowest [3].

Legal Developments - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was found liable by a Pennsylvania jury for the ovarian cancer of a woman who used its talc-based baby powder, resulting in a damages award of $250,000, which includes $50,000 in compensatory damages and $200,000 in punitive damages [2][11] - The company maintains that its talc products are safe and do not contain asbestos, although it has transitioned to a cornstarch-based formula globally [3] Energy Sector Advancements - Amazon (AMZN)-backed nuclear startup X-energy, through its subsidiary TRISO-X, received U.S. regulatory approval for its advanced reactor fuel, marking a significant step for the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) [4][11] - This approval is part of a broader "nuclear renaissance" aimed at providing carbon-free, 24/7 power for artificial intelligence workloads, with the U.S. Department of Energy accelerating these approvals to enhance domestic energy security [5] Corporate Finance Trends - UBS forecasts a significant increase in corporate buybacks, predicting activity to rise from recent lows to between $30 billion and $50 billion per week over the next six weeks, which could provide a boost to equity markets [6][7][11] Oil Market Insights - Crude oil futures experienced modest gains, with Brent Crude settling at $67.75 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $62.89 per barrel [8][11] - This increase occurred despite a bearish report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that lowered its global demand forecast for 2026, with the market remaining cautious about a projected surplus of 3.7 million barrels per day [9]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is reacting negatively to software firms perceived as losers in the AI boom, with credit markets expected to face similar disruptions soon [1][2] Group 1: AI Disruption Impact - Tens of billions in corporate loans are projected to default over the next year, particularly affecting software and data services firms owned by private equity due to AI threats [1] - UBS analysts have updated their forecasts rapidly in response to accelerated AI disruption expectations from new models by Anthropic and OpenAI [2] - The market has been slow to react to the speed of AI disruption, necessitating a recalibration in credit evaluation methods [3] Group 2: Default Projections - UBS analysts estimate that borrowers of leveraged loans and private credit could see $75 billion to $120 billion in new defaults by the end of this year [4] - Default rates for leveraged loans and private credit are expected to increase by up to 2.5% and 4% respectively by late 2026, with these markets valued at $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion [4]

Group 1 - Anthropic has completed a $30 billion financing round, achieving a post-money valuation of $38 billion [1] - OpenAI has released its first AI model based on Cerebras Systems' semiconductor chip, named GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark [1] - SoftBank's PayPay has filed for an IPO in the U.S., aiming to raise over $2 billion, with a projected profit of ¥103.3 billion (approximately $675 million) and revenue of ¥278.5 billion, showing significant growth [1] Group 2 - The U.S. January CPI data is set to be released, with JPMorgan predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% in core CPI, higher than the market consensus of 0.3% [2] - UBS has indicated that the market has not fully absorbed the disruptive risks of AI, particularly in the low-quality credit sector, predicting a slight increase in default rates by the end of 2026 [2] - A significant trend of global capital rebalancing is emerging, with $104 billion flowing into European, Japanese, and other developed market equity funds, compared to $25 billion into U.S. equity funds [3]

Group 1 - UBS has raised the target price for Hermès International from €2260 to €2310 [1]