March 16, 2025 06:00 AM GMT M Global Foundation Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro Is the Correction Over? Major US equity Indices are as oversold as they've been since 2022, sentiment/ positioning gauges have lightened up considerably, and seasonals are set to improve in the second half of March for earnings revisions and price. Furthermore, recent dollar weakness should provide a tailwind to 1Q earnings season/2Q guidance relative to 4Q24, and, if historical patterns hold, the decline in rates sho ...

Global Markets Strategy March 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China/HK Equity Strategy Chartbook Wendy Liu AC (852) 2800 1087 wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Pacific Equity Research 16 March 2025 China Internet earnings calendar Thoughts into the peak of 4Q24 earnings season See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this re ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Morgan Stanley RESEARCH March 12, 2025 01:24 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Investor Survey Results: Growth Scare Returns shuinu9870 Wanted to share some thoughts from, and 9 question Tesla investor survey, sent to our distribution list on March 11th at 3:15pm with results aggregated from 245 responses over 17 hgars. 85% of respondents think Elon's political activities are having a negatiye or extremely negative impact on Tesla's business fundamentals. 59% of respondents ex ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a focus on high-quality stocks as the preferred investment choice amid elevated uncertainty, indicating a positive investment outlook for quality stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that quality stocks are expected to outperform in the long run, particularly in the context of ongoing policy uncertainty and declining earnings revisions [2][3]. - A selection of 30 companies, termed "30 for 2027," has been identified as the best long-term investment picks, focusing on those likely to enhance their sustainable competitive advantages [3][4]. - The criteria for selection include sustainability of competitive advantage, business model robustness, pricing power, cost efficiency, and growth potential, with a strong emphasis on Return on Net Operating Assets (RNOA) and management strategies [4][5]. Summary by Sections Selected Companies - The report lists 30 companies that are well-positioned for long-term growth, including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Visa, among others [6]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics for the selected companies, including projected revenue and EPS growth rates, EBIT margins, and net debt to EBITDA ratios, indicating strong financial health and growth potential [17][20]. Valuation Metrics - Valuation metrics such as P/E ratios, EV/EBIT, and free cash flow yields are presented, with price targets and risk-reward assessments for each company, suggesting significant upside potential for investors [20][28].

March 9, 2025 08:08 PM GMT Outlook: The 1Q25 GDP deflator appears likely stuck at -0.8%Y (vs. -0.7%Y in 4Q24). We maintain our view that reflation could be a bumpy and drawn-out process, as sustained reflation requires continued narrowing in the negative output gap, which could be difficult in view of tariff impact and a modest fiscal package. | M Reflation Momentum Eased in Jan-Feb | Zhipeng Cai Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com Harry.Zhao@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7820 +852 2239-7229 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The report anticipates nominal GDP growth in China to remain below 4% starting from Q2 2025 due to factors such as slower exports, housing market weakness, and ongoing deflation [3][4] - The impact of tariff shocks on exports is expected to worsen overcapacity, although China is better prepared this time with supply chain adjustments [5] - The return of tech innovation is noted, but it is insufficient to break the cycle of deflation [5] Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Growth in China is projected to weaken from Q2 2025, influenced by declining exports and housing market challenges [4] - The report highlights a significant rebound in manufacturing and construction PMIs, while services remain subdued [59] Tariffs and Trade - The effective tariff rate on imports from China to the US has increased by 1.5 percentage points, indicating escalating trade tensions [9][10] - China's response to US tariffs has been measured, with a focus on maintaining trade balance despite challenges [23] Policy and Stimulus - A modest fiscal package of RMB 2 trillion has been announced, with a focus on technology and innovation [45][49] - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy aimed at addressing economic challenges through various policy measures, including fiscal and monetary easing [56] Social Dynamics and Welfare - The report emphasizes the need for social welfare reforms to stimulate consumption and reduce precautionary savings [78][80] - China's social welfare spending is relatively low compared to other countries, indicating room for improvement [82]

Asia Pacific Equity Research 09 March 2025 www.jpmorganmarkets.com {[{3wcfGjz7AitDVgOPH1AAEJGet1Pf4tcaKEMl6PVfVUkiiot4RGG9g_rfdtR9KDYP-_5a6ClGL2E}]} 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China gen AI Entering a stage of application proliferation See page 10 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of intere ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight position on equities, particularly European equities, while being underweight in duration-sensitive bonds [75][78]. Core Insights - European equities are viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to recovering PMIs, low earnings expectations, and favorable pro-growth policies [4][9][59]. - The report highlights a potential rebound in the European Construction & Construction Materials sector, driven by rate cuts and reconstruction efforts related to the Ukraine ceasefire [10][65]. - A shift in economic policy is anticipated, with the private sector expected to take over as a growth driver as public sector spending decreases [18][22]. - The report indicates that inflation expectations are rising, with inflation breakevens moving above post-pandemic averages, suggesting a mildly inflationary environment [14][15][39]. Summary by Sections Top Ideas - Adding to European equity exposure is recommended, countering consensus views, due to recovering global PMIs and low earnings expectations [9][59]. - Overweighting European construction is suggested as the sector is poised for a rebound with improving fundamentals and potential reconstruction efforts [10][65]. - A turning point for real estate is noted, with stabilizing pricing and improving long-term operating outlooks [12][69]. Economic Outlook - Global economic growth remains positive, supported by easy central bank policies outside Japan, which is beneficial for earnings and asset prices [7]. - Economic policy uncertainty has risen significantly, yet growth data continues to point towards expansion [28]. Market Trends - The report notes that cyclical sectors, particularly materials, have shown improved earnings surprises, indicating a recovery trend [32]. - Small- and mid-cap segments are expected to benefit from a continued manufacturing recovery, contrasting with large-cap earnings trends [36]. Fixed Income Insights - The report suggests a modest underweight in duration-sensitive bonds due to expectations of a steepening yield curve and rising inflation risks [11][78]. - Bank loans are highlighted as a strong performer, with attractive valuations and high carry relative to other fixed income sectors [43]. Alternatives and Commodities - The report maintains a neutral stance on key commodity markets, balancing geopolitical risks with high spare capacity [83]. - Hedge funds are favored for their ability to navigate market volatility and capitalize on price movements [83].