Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is Underweight [2][8][76] Core Views - The report indicates that Wanhua Chemical is facing multiple geopolitical headwinds, including US export tariffs on MDI, China's import tariffs on ethane, and an anti-dumping investigation by the US, which are expected to negatively impact volume, price, and earnings [8][12][13] - The price target for Wanhua Chemical has been reduced to Rmb51.00, reflecting a 5% decrease based on updated financial data and a target multiple of 15x 2025e P/E [5][8][12] Summary by Sections Price Target and Earnings Estimates - The price target for Wanhua Chemical is set at Rmb51.00, down from Rmb54.00, based on a target multiple of 15x 2025e P/E [5][8] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is revised to Rmb3.42, down from Rmb3.61 [2][8] Financial Performance and Projections - The report projects a decline in net profit by 5% for 2025 and 6% for 2026, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates [5][8] - MDI prices are expected to be Rmb12,305 per ton in 2025, with unit gross profit projected at Rmb2,892 per ton [16] Market Conditions and Risks - The geopolitical risks are anticipated to exert downward pressure on MDI prices and spreads, affecting overall earnings visibility for non-MDI products [8][12][13] - The report highlights that the valuation is no longer appealing, contributing to the Underweight rating [8][12]

We are also watchful about Hainan's free-trade-zone policy and impact to duty-free operators. The Hainan government has not yet released any details, but we expect it to do so later this year as Central government targets opening the FTZ in 2025. Recap of March-2025 Hainan offline DF trends: Avg daily sales Rmb94mn (-5% YoY vs -13% YoY in 2M25); Daily shoppers 17.7K (-26% YoY) and spending per shopper Rmb6.5K (+28%). The ASP growth could be helped by more electronic product sales which might not translate t ...

中国 证券研究 2025 年 4 月 21 日 通策医疗 - A 中国口腔医疗巨头脆弱微笑背后潜藏的不确定性：首 次覆盖，给予"减持"评级 我们首次覆盖通策医疗，给予"减持"评级和截至 2025 年 12 月的目标价 34 元。通策医疗是中国领先的口腔医疗连锁机构之一，截至 2024 年 3 季 度，公司经营有 84 家医疗机构，开设牙椅约 3100 台。我们认为口腔医 疗服务行业面临短期及长期挑战，导致盈利承压。我们的 2025/26 年每 股收益预测值分别比市场一致预期低 8%/10%。盈利增长前景弱于预期 以及对浙江省的地域依赖（收入九成来自省内）使我们很难合理化当前 估值倍数，我们认为该股股价此后将趋缓。 资料来源：风格敞口数据源自摩根大通量化与衍生品策略团队；其他所有图表中的数据均为公司数据或摩根大通估算 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 30 页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识到其中可能存 在利益冲突，进而可能会影响本报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，本报告之观点应仅作为投资者的考虑 因素之一。 首次覆盖 减持 6007 ...

April 23, 2025 09:12 AM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific PC/NB: Turning conservative We lower PC unit assumptions 3% each for 2025-26 for our Greater China Tech Hardware coverage and flow that through our models. We stay OW on Lenovo, downgrade Asustek to EW and downgrade Acer, Compal and Foxconn to UW. We turn more cautious on PCs: Given the increased policy uncertainties and recession concerns, we see risks on DT/NB budgets, supported by results from our recent US CIO survey. We lower ...

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, with a preference for gold, cement, building materials, and steel for 2Q25 [7]. Core Insights - Demand in the materials sector showed signs of recovery in 1Q25, but the outlook for 2Q25 is uncertain due to tariff concerns [2]. - The report anticipates that metals-related stocks may outperform in 2H25 as further stimulus is expected [1][6]. - The impact of tariffs is projected to lower China's 2025 real GDP forecast by 30 basis points to 4.2% [2][18]. Summary by Sections Gold - Gold is identified as the top pick within commodities, supported by ongoing central bank buying and rising ETF inflows [3]. - Lower Treasury yields are expected to enhance gold's macro backdrop [3]. Cement and Steel - Cement supply-side controls were announced in November 2024, leading to a focus on profitability rather than price wars [4]. - A production cut of 30 million tons and an export cut of 15-20 million tons for steel is anticipated in 2025 [4]. Metals - In 2H25, copper and aluminum are expected to outperform due to continued demand from grid and EV-related infrastructure [5]. - The report notes that aluminum will benefit from margin expansion amid limited supply increases [5]. Tariff Impact - The cumulative US tariffs are expected to have a more significant growth drag compared to the 2018-19 period, with a projected weighted average tariff hike on China reaching 34% by year-end [17]. - The tariff shocks are anticipated to affect both trade channels and domestic demand, contributing to a GDP growth reduction of 90 basis points [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a balanced approach to investment, particularly favoring large-cap internet/tech, consumer, and healthcare sectors in a potential tariff de-escalation scenario [2][4]. Core Insights - Market sentiment has improved significantly due to comments from US officials indicating a potential reduction in tariffs against China, leading to a notable rise in indices such as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index by 3.7% and Hang Seng indices by approximately 2.4% and 3.1% [3][4]. - In the event of tariff de-escalation, Chinese equities are expected to benefit, particularly offshore markets outperforming onshore A-shares, with large-cap internet/tech, consumer, and healthcare sectors being the most positively impacted [4][5]. - Despite the positive market reaction, the report emphasizes the need for patience and a cautious approach, as there is currently no solid evidence of effective bilateral negotiations taking place [5]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Significant improvement in market sentiment following optimistic comments from US officials regarding tariffs [3]. - Positive earnings revision stabilization trend anticipated if tariffs are reduced, alleviating investor concerns [4]. Sector Performance - Large-cap internet/tech, consumer, and healthcare sectors are best positioned to benefit from tariff de-escalation [4]. - Offshore equities expected to outperform onshore A-shares in a de-escalation scenario [4]. Strategic Positioning - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, holding high-quality large-cap internet names and blue-chip consumer stocks while also keeping some defensiveness in their portfolios [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or economies discussed Core Insights - Shifting away from China for Asia ex China (AXC) economies to avoid US tariffs is deemed nearly impossible due to China's integral role as a key market, critical supplier, and significant source of FDI inflows [1][5][13] - Implementing trade restrictions on China would likely lead to reciprocal measures from China, resulting in significant negative impacts on trade, capital expenditure, and growth outlook for AXC economies [5][8][13] Summary by Sections Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The US may seek to have AXC economies limit their economic involvement with China, but the report argues that such restrictions are impractical given China's central role in the region's production network [5][8] - China is a major source of end demand, critical inputs, and FDI, especially for ASEAN economies, making any trade restrictions potentially damaging [5][10][12] Economies at Risk - Economies like Vietnam, Thailand, and India, which have trade surpluses with the US and deficits with China, may be pressured to impose tariffs on China, but the report suggests they would struggle to do so [8][10] - Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, which also have significant trade surpluses with the US, run trade surpluses with China, making tariffs on Chinese imports unlikely [8][10] Trade Dynamics - Exports to the US account for 17.5% of AXC economies' total exports, while exports to China account for 16.6%, highlighting the importance of both markets [10][24] - China accounts for 41% of global value chain-related output in manufacturing, emphasizing its critical role in the region's supply chains [12][21] Potential Measures and Challenges - The report evaluates three potential measures the US could ask AXC economies to adopt: stricter rules of origin, tariffs on China, and limiting investment from China, all of which present significant challenges [15][16] - Imposing tariffs on Chinese imports could lead to inflationary pressures and disruptions in domestic manufacturing sectors, with potential retaliatory actions from China [18][31] Investment Flows - China's FDI inflows account for 11% of total FDI in ASEAN economies, with significant reliance on Chinese investments, particularly in Singapore, which acts as a conduit for FDI into ASEAN [37][39] - Other Asian economies like Japan, Korea, and Taiwan have lower reliance on Chinese FDI, which has been declining, thus limiting exposure to retaliatory measures [38][39] Transshipment and Domestic Production - The report notes limited evidence of transshipment activities in Vietnam, Thailand, and India, suggesting that their trade deficits with China reflect reliance on Chinese inputs for domestic production rather than trade rerouting [51][52]

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [7] Core Insights - Key industry trends include GB300 system assembly yield, China's H20 shipment license, and upcoming AI capital expenditures from cloud service providers (CSPs) [7] - TSMC maintains a mid-40% five-year CAGR target for AI semiconductor revenue despite uncertainties surrounding H20 [2][6] - Huawei's Ascend 920 chip is set for mass production in 2H25, indicating ongoing evolution in China's AI GPU landscape [3][12] Summary by Sections AI Supply Chain Dynamics - The forecast for H20 baseboard assembly has been cut in half, raising concerns about potential production cuts at TSMC and Amkor [2] - If the H20 license is delayed, TSMC may redirect unused wafer capacity to H200 production if demand persists [2] Hardware Developments - The GB300 server racks are reverting to the Bianca board design, which may improve assembly yields [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the reversion to the Bianca board indicates improved yields for the GB200/Bianca board [5] Stock Market Implications - Updates on AI capital expenditures from global CSPs will be crucial for investor confidence [6] - Key Asian supply chain stocks like TSMC, Hon Hai, and Wistron appear undervalued but require new catalysts for performance [6] GPU Market in China - Huawei's new AI GPU, Ascend 920, will utilize a 6nm process and is expected to replace H20 chips, which are currently restricted [12][15] - The CloudMatrix 384 system from Huawei aims to compete with Nvidia's offerings, showcasing significant computing power [13] Future Projections - The demand for CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) is projected to grow significantly, with NVIDIA leading the demand [18][22] - AI computing wafer consumption is expected to reach up to $16.1 billion in revenue by 2025 [37]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Goertek and Lingyi to Underweight (UW) and Genius to Equal-weight (EW) due to vulnerabilities in the Apple supply chain related to tariff changes and production location diversification pressures [1][5]. Core Insights - The Apple supply chain is viewed as the most vulnerable to tariff changes, leading to a reduction in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 by an average of 12% and 15% respectively, resulting in expected earnings growth of 8% and 14% year-over-year [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the need for "China+1" or "+2" production bases to mitigate tariff impacts, noting that capacity diversification may take 1-2 years to implement and could increase overall operational costs [4][12]. - The report suggests it is too early for investors to consider bottom-fishing in the downgraded companies due to ongoing tariff uncertainties and unattractive valuations [5][31]. Summary by Sections Earnings Estimates - iPhone build estimates are revised to flat year-over-year in 2025 (214 million units) and a 4% increase in 2026 (223 million units), reflecting price inflation from tariff hikes [8][10]. - The production cost in the US is projected to be at least 50% higher than in China, with costs in Vietnam and India also rising by 15% and 25% respectively over the past five years [8][10]. Price Target Changes - Price targets have been cut for several companies, including Genius to NT$400, Crystal to RMB22, Largan to NT$2,800, BYDE to HK$45, and AAC to HK$50, reflecting downward revisions in earnings estimates [32][31]. - The report indicates that the group trades at 17.1x 2025e PE and 14.8x 2026e, which is higher than the 8-year trading average of 15x for the tech hardware sector [3][11]. Production and Demand Analysis - The report highlights a significant gap between US demand and non-China production, particularly for iPhones, iPads, and AirPods, with production still highly concentrated in China [13][16]. - The ongoing trade conflict is expected to continue raising production costs, necessitating a reevaluation of production strategies within the tech hardware supply chain [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Vertiv (VRT) with a price target of $100.00 by December 2025 [4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Vertiv has shown stronger than expected orders and backlog, which supports a positive outlook for the stock. The guidance for 2025 has been reaffirmed, indicating robust demand driven by AI and data center investments [1][7]. - The company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.64, exceeding both the internal estimate and street expectations, alongside a significant year-over-year organic sales growth of 25% [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the strong competitive positioning of Vertiv in the data center market, with a focus on the company's ability to capture market share and improve margins despite tariff-related challenges [7][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Vertiv's 1Q25 sales reached $2.036 billion, surpassing estimates and reflecting a 4.3% increase compared to expectations. Organic sales growth was particularly strong in North America (+29%) and APAC (+36%) [2][11]. - Adjusted operating profit (AOP) was reported at $337 million, slightly below estimates, with margins at 16.5%, impacted by tariffs [2][11]. Guidance and Outlook - The 2025 sales guidance has been increased to a range of $9.325-9.575 billion, reflecting an organic growth expectation of 16.5-19.5% [2][13]. - The report outlines a positive outlook for 2Q25, with expected organic sales growth of approximately 21% and total revenues projected between $2.325-2.375 billion [2][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Vertiv is positioned as a leading supplier in the data center market, benefiting from strategic changes since becoming independent in 2017. The company aims for sustained share gains and margin improvements [13][14]. - The report notes that the company is actively managing tariff impacts and has a robust orders pipeline, indicating continued demand strength [3][6][7].