Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Laopu Gold with a price target of HK$1,111.00 for December 2025, reflecting a significant upside potential from the current price of HK$804.00 [2][10][28]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold aims to become the No.1 gold brand globally, with plans to expand its boutique network significantly, targeting six to eight new boutiques in 2025, following seven new openings in 2024, bringing the total to 36 [1][10]. - The company has set a long-term sales target of Rmb1 billion per shopping mall, with expectations of achieving over Rmb300 million in 2024, driven by strong sales momentum and enhanced product offerings [1][10]. - Laopu Gold's market share in the heritage gold segment is currently at 2%, with expectations of substantial growth due to the fast-growing market and store expansion opportunities [10][28]. - The report highlights that over 60% of sales in 2024 are expected to come from new customers, indicating a low penetration rate among target customers [1][10]. - Despite potential negative impacts on gross profit margin (GPM) due to rising gold prices, the company plans to mitigate these through advance procurement and strategic price increases [1][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025 have been increased from Rmb16,070 million to Rmb18,780 million, and for 2026 from Rmb22,288 million to Rmb26,172 million [3][9]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 59% and an EPS growth of 65% over the period from 2025 to 2027 [10][28]. Market Expansion and Product Innovation - Laopu Gold is focusing on expanding its presence in both domestic and international markets, with plans for boutiques in cities like Tokyo, Osaka, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok [1][10]. - The company is also emphasizing product innovation, with around 40% of its products expected to contribute to 70% of sales, indicating a strong focus on diversifying its product offerings [1][10]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - The report projects a gross margin of 41.2% for 2024, with expectations of maintaining a bottom line GPM of 40% [1][10]. - The DCF-based valuation suggests a price target of HK$1,111, implying a 33x forward P/E for the next 12 months [11][29].

April 17, 2025 06:27 PM GMT Kweichow Moutai Company Ltd. | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed | Kweichow Moutai Company Ltd. (600519.SS) | From | To | | --- | --- | --- | | Price Target | Rmb1,742.00 | Rmb1,810.00 | | Bull Case | Rmb2,177.00 | Rmb2,262.00 | | Base Case | Rmb1,742.00 | Rmb1,810.00 | | Bear Case | Rmb1,005.00 | Rmb1,045.00 | | Updated Components | | | | EPS | | | | Investment Thesis | | | | Bull Base Bear Scenarios | | | | Risks to Price Target / Rating | | | | Investment Drivers ...

April 17, 2025 08:00 AM GMT Zijin Mining Group | Asia Pacific M Update Risk Reward Update We mark to market the latest metal price changes. We adjust production volume based on 2025 guidance and company's new 3- year plan. We raise capex assumptions referencing the 2024 numbers and considering ongoing expansion. These moves lower our 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates by 3% and 2%, respectively, to Rmb1.53 and Rmb1.63, and we introduce our 2027 estimate of Rmb1.57. We lower our DCF-based price target to Rmb24.0. M ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Laopu Gold is Equal-weight with a price target of HK$980.00, indicating a 22% upside from the current price of HK$804.00 [5]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold is a highly debated jewelry stock, with bullish investors focusing on short-term performance driven by gold prices and store openings, while bearish investors express concerns about long-term sustainability and execution risks [2][8]. - The report highlights a significant correlation between Laopu's stock valuation and gold prices, suggesting that Laopu could serve as a new proxy for gold investments [9][11]. Summary by Sections Bull vs. Bear Arguments - **Gold Price Impact**: Bulls argue that resilient gold prices will benefit Laopu, while bears warn that price volatility could lead to stock de-rating [3]. - **Fashion Risk**: Bulls believe Laopu's popularity reflects a lasting industry upgrade, whereas bears caution about the short cycles of fashion trends in China [3]. - **Store Opening**: Bulls see potential for revenue growth from new store openings, while bears highlight the risk of cannibalization and macroeconomic impacts on demand [3]. - **Execution Risk**: Bulls are optimistic about the founder's vision for store productivity, while bears question the feasibility of achieving such targets [3]. - **Competition**: Bulls note Laopu's established brand as a high-end heritage gold brand, while bears point out increasing competition with limited design differentiation [3]. - **Earnings Expectations**: Bulls project a net profit of Rmb6-7 billion for 2025, while bears suggest a lower consensus of Rmb3-4 billion, leading to concerns about high P/E ratios [3]. Financial Projections - For fiscal year 2025, Laopu is expected to generate a net profit of Rmb6-7 billion according to bullish estimates, with a projected P/E ratio of 18x [3][5]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at Rmb22.82 billion, with EBITDA expected to reach Rmb5.75 billion [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that Laopu's revenue trends are largely supply-driven, with new store openings expected to contribute additional revenue with limited cannibalization [33]. - Laopu plans to expand its store presence both domestically and internationally, with openings in key locations such as Shanghai and Singapore [34]. Consumer Insights - A survey indicates that consumers primarily purchase gold jewelry for self-reward and daily wear, with product quality and design being the top factors influencing brand choice [12][16]. - Laopu is perceived positively in terms of product quality and brand heritage, which may enhance its competitive position in the market [17][19].

中国 证券研究 2025 年 4 月 17 日 华勤技术 - A 对 H20 受限的反应有些过度；由多元化业务布局支撑 的前景完好；重申"增持"评级 由于 H20 受到限制，华勤股价于 4 月 16 日下跌 9.5%（当日申万电子行 业指数下跌 0.6%）。我们的行业报告从不同角度探讨了相关影响。具体 对华勤而言，我们认为投资者的反应有些过度，并预计这一限制对公司 增长的影响有限，因为华勤及其人工智能服务器客户从 2024 年下半年起 就对 H20 可能的供应中断有了预期，并通过如下方式作了应对：1）增 加 H20 库存以支持生产（至少可以支持 2025 年上半年的生产）；2）对 国产 GPU 解决方案进行适配测试。加之智能手机和 PC 业务出货量强劲 增长（由市场份额增长推动）以及利润率改善，我们预计华勤 2025 年盈 利将同比增长 33%。我们认为此次股价下跌是一个良好的切入点，并重 申对华勤的"增持"评级，截至 2025 年 12 月的目标价为 95 元。 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 3 页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识 ...

April 17, 2025 10:55 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America CoTD: Which US Mfg Verticals are Most Tied to China? More Opportunity Than Risk Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company events, or just ones that we find interesting. Exhibit 1: Which US Manufacturing categories are most tied to China imports ? Chart below tracks China imports as % of US Manufacturing sales for the respective categories Source: Morgan Stanley Research, ...

Semiconductors New Restrictions Impact Shipments of Nvidia's H20 And AMD's MI308 Solutions And Highlights Increasing Geopolitical Uncertainty; We Estimate 8-10% Impact to CY25 Earnings Tuesday after the market close, Nvidia put out an 8-k filing that stated that on April 9 th, the U.S. government (USG) imposed new license requirements for its H20 AI GPU products to China (including Hong Kong and Macau) and D:5 countries. Overall we have several key takeaways. First, the export control affects the H20 and it ...

April 17, 2025 02:31 AM GMT Internet | North America Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at th ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 18 April 2025 Semiconductors/SPE Disco, TSMC, ASML results: Strong near-term outlook for Disco's memory-related products Uncertainty remains high in the semiconductor sector, given the Trump administration's changes in tariff policy (postponement of tariffs for semiconductor-related products, including SPE) and NVIDIA's disclosure of H20 chip export restrictions. Semiconductor related-stocks are down 23% YTD (simple average for our coverage; Figure 4), versus a 9% decline for TO ...

We lower ests across the board, detail macro/tariff impacts to ecom/digital ads and showcase a "visibility to FCF vs valuation to bear case" framework analyzing valuation support and where we expect durable out-performance first. META/GOOG/UBER screen best followed by CHWY/DASH/U/AMZN/BKNG/RDDT. First, 3 Macro Factors We Are Most Focused On: The MS macro team continues to expect muted GDP growth (0.6%/0.5% '25/'26 real GDP growth), firming inflation and a steady Fed in '25. As tariff headlines and realities ...