Investment Rating - The report provides an "Attractive" industry view for the energy sector in Asia Pacific [7]. Core Insights - Asia (excluding China) is projected to increase energy imports from the US, with potential additional imports of US$51 billion annually by 2028, which would help lower energy costs and diversify supply [2][4]. - The report highlights that US energy exports to Asia could rise significantly, with crude oil, natural gas, propane, and ethane being the primary products [4][12][15]. - The increase in US energy imports is expected to reduce the trade surplus with the US by 11%, with countries like Japan, Indonesia, and India seeing reductions of 18-39% in their current surpluses [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Energy Import Projections - Asia (ex-China) imported 40 exajoules (EJ) of energy in 2023, accounting for about one-third of its needs, with US imports making up approximately 9% of the region's US$600 billion energy imports in 2024 [4]. - The report estimates that if 30-35% of LNG imports are sourced from the US, energy imports could reach US$51 billion by 2028, and a 50% share would increase this to US$60 billion [4]. Country-Specific Import Data - India: Expected to increase imports from US$10 billion in 2023-24 to US$24 billion by 2028, a US$14 billion increment [5]. - Japan: Anticipated to double its imports from US$12 billion to US$24 billion [5]. - South Korea: Imports projected to rise from US$20 billion to US$26 billion [5]. - Indonesia: Expected to increase from US$1 billion to US$8 billion [5]. Product-Specific Insights - Crude Oil: Asia (ex-China) imported approximately 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) of US crude in 2023, with potential to increase by 1.5 mbpd by 2028, translating to over US$30 billion annually [12]. - LNG: Asia (ex-China) imported 26 million tons per annum (mntpa) in 2024, with potential to import 47 mntpa from the US by 2028, equating to US$12 billion annually [13]. - Propane: Asia imports 66 mntpa of propane annually, with US propane being 30% cheaper than Asian benchmarks, indicating a potential for increased imports from the US [15]. Beneficiaries of Increased Imports - Companies such as Reliance, GAIL, and Tokyo Gas are expected to benefit from the increased US energy imports due to lower costs [14][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the biopharma industry in North America [7] Core Insights - The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending April 11, 2025, was +2.7%, a decrease from +3.5% the previous week, but consistent with the +2.7% growth over the past 12 weeks [1][2] - The report highlights the launch performance of new drugs, including BMY's Cobenfy for schizophrenia and VRTX's Journavx for acute pain, with specific TRx targets needed to meet consensus sales estimates [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +2.7% compared to +2.3% a year ago, with a rolling 4-week TRx YoY also at +2.7% [2] - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +1.4%, indicating a slower growth rate compared to TRx YoY [2] Drug Launch Analysis - BMY's Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia, recorded approximately 1,660 scripts for the week, up from 1,580 the previous week, with a target of 105K TRx needed to meet 2025 consensus estimates [3] - VRTX's Journavx, approved for acute pain, had around 2,950 scripts for the week, with an estimated average script size of 35-37 pills, indicating a need for approximately 229K scripts for a 14-day duration to achieve $87 million in sales [4] Prescription Trends - The report includes a detailed analysis of prescription trends for major pharmaceuticals, highlighting significant YoY changes for key products such as Humira, Rinvoq, and Skyrizi [19][21] - The GLP-1 franchise, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound, showed notable growth, with Mounjaro experiencing a 69% YoY increase [21] Seasonal Vaccine Tracking - The report tracks seasonal respiratory vaccines, noting that RSV vaccine volumes are approximately 65% below last year's levels, while COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [10]

Investment Rating - The industry view for China's financial sector is rated as Attractive [4] Core Insights - China's banks have sufficient capacity to absorb potential risks from increased US tariffs, with stable earnings and dividends expected to support share performance [1][12] - The potential industrial non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is forecasted to rise to 10-11% from 8.4% at the end of 2024 due to tariff impacts [15][20] - The analysis indicates that approximately 4% of total loans, primarily export-related credits, are exposed to tariff risks, with electronics and electrical equipment being the most affected sectors [10][12] Summary by Sections Financial Stability - Major Chinese banks are expected to maintain stable earnings and dividends despite potential delays in net interest margin (NIM) and fee income recovery [1][58] - The banking sector has been digesting over RMB 3 trillion of total NPLs annually, with a consistent provision charge of around RMB 1.3 trillion [18][19] Risk Assessment - The incremental NPL from higher tariffs could be 2-3% for industrial loans, translating to an increase of 40-60 basis points in total loans [7][12] - The forecast suggests that if tariffs affect one-third of export-oriented manufacturing credits, the cumulative industrial NPL ratio could reach 15-16% [20][22] Sector-Specific Insights - The electronics sector accounts for 22% of exports to the US, while apparel and furniture have higher revenue exposure, indicating varying levels of risk across sectors [10][11] - Continued capital expenditure rationalization in the industrial sector is expected to ease some risks associated with industrial loans [33][37] Market Dynamics - The ongoing tariff dynamics are anticipated to create uncertainties in the A-share market, affecting both fundamentals and investor sentiment [58] - A shift in preference back to defensive banks from insurance is noted, reflecting market volatility and the need for stable earnings [56][58]

April 21, 2025 02:24 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Asia EM Equity Strategy: Asia Pacific and America First – Latest Targets & Signposts Multipolar world trends are in the ascendancy. Deal making is possible but uncertainty weighs heavily on the trade/earnings outlook. . We prefer Japan (domestic, unhedged), India, Singapore and UAE, while holding an EW stance on China. We remain UW on Taiwan and South Korea. Within ASEAN we prefer Philippines vs Indonesia. We continue to prefer Financials vs S ...

April 21, 2025 03:20 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America Week Ahead EPS Preview + Key Macro Debates Given the fast changing + volatile macro, we are opting for "week ahead" previews this EPS season. As always, we spoke with every company in back half of March. Detailed modeling + thoughts within. We anticipate modest Q1 beats but with the world changing on April 2, outlooks will drive the equities and we expect market focus on April demand commentary and rest of year price / cost. While latest investor co ...

Key Takeaways Spot thermal coal price declined slightly: QHD 5500 was flat WoW at Rmb678/t as of April 18. CCI 5500 was down 0.3% WoW to Rmb670/t. BSPI was flat WoW at Rmb678/t. Mine-mouth prices for Shanxi Datong 5800 was down 2.3% WoW to Rmb548/t. Seaborne price declined: NEWC price fell 2.1% WoW to US$94/t as of April 18. Inventory piling at QHD port: QHD inventory increased 11.2% WoW to 6.85mt. Inventory at Bohai Rim ports decreased 0.9% WoW to 29.9mt as of April 18. Stable coking coal prices: Liulin No ...

April 21, 2025 02:52 PM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Weekly Monitor: Critical Minerals in the Focus More minerals under US tariff probe. Baosteel continues industry consolidation. Base metals: Shanghai copper prices were up 2.5% WoW, while inventories were down 6.2% WoW. Shanghai aluminum prices were up 1.3% WoW, while inventories were down 7.4% WoW. Key news of the week: Trump administration orders tariff probe on all US critical mineral imports. Battery metals: Domestic industrial-grade lithium hydr ...

April 21, 2025 09:10 AM GMT Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Eli Carter Strategist Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703 Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited Kanishk Jain Strategist Kanishk.Jain@morganstanley.com +91 22 6293-5744 North America US Interest Rates Strategy US Liquid Rates Tracker Data Package | Contents | Page | | --- | --- | | General Market Summary Treasury | 2 | | Summary | 3 | | SOFR Futures Rolldown Report | 11 | | STRIPS | 17 | | TIPS | 21 | For important disclosures, refer to the ...

April 21, 2025 04:01 AM GMT US Equity Strategy | North America Weekly Warm-up: Range Trading Continues Until Clarity Arrives The S&P remains in the middle of our 5000-5500 trading range. Dispersion of EPS revisions is picking up, a sign that reporting season is likely more of a rotational driver. We recommend looking for quality stocks in industries where the set up is more de-risked and offer tools for idea generation. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael J Wilson Equity Strategist M.Wilson@morganstanle ...

Aier Eye - A Leading the ophthalmic track and awaiting a recovery in demand; initiate at N We initiate coverage of Aier Eye with a N rating and a Dec-25 PT of Rmb13. Aier Eye is the leader in the structurally expanding ophthalmology market underpinned by an ageing population and escalating 'quality of life' requirements. Resilient demand for cataract and eye disease therapy ensures steady industry growth, even if the lukewarm consumer economy in China is delaying discretionary ophthalmic demand. Aier's firs ...