Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting prices to reach an average of $3,675/oz by 4Q25 and above $4,000/oz by 2Q26 [2][4][22]. Core Insights - The structural shift in gold demand and geopolitical pricing drivers indicate that $4,000/oz is achievable, supported by continued strong investor and central bank demand [2][4]. - Central banks are expected to purchase around 900 tonnes of gold in 2025, reflecting ongoing diversification from USD reserves amid geopolitical uncertainties [28][60]. - Gold is viewed as an optimal hedge against stagflation, recession, and US policy risks, with increased investor interest expected from ETFs and retail demand, particularly in China [2][56][60]. Summary by Sections Demand and Price Forecast - Gold prices are projected to average $3,675/oz by 4Q25, driven by quarterly net demand averaging around 710 tonnes [4][22]. - A breakeven demand level of approximately 350 tonnes per quarter is necessary to maintain stable gold prices, with every additional 100 tonnes correlating to a 2% increase in price [12][22]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, averaging 280 tonnes per quarter since 2022, compared to a pre-2022 average of 120 tonnes [12][28]. - The share of gold in official reserves has risen to nearly 20%, with ongoing diversification expected to continue [28][29]. Investor Demand - Total gold holdings by investors and central banks are estimated to approach a notional value of around $8.8 trillion, highlighting gold's appeal as a safe haven [59][60]. - Investor holdings of gold rose by 3% year-over-year in 2024, with a notional value increase of 31% to approximately $4.2 trillion [56][60]. Silver Outlook - Silver is expected to face challenges in the near term due to industrial demand uncertainties, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025, with prices projected to rise towards $39/oz by year-end [2][9].

J P M O R G A N To review,Fed interest rate policy isset by theFOMC, which is made up of twelve people: the sevenmembers oftheFed'sBoard of Governors, based inWashington, DC, the president of the NY Fed, and an annually rotating group of four of the 11 remaining regional reserve bank presidents. The seven members of the Board of Governors are nominated by thePresident and confirmed by theSenate.Afull term is 14 years, with one term beginning every two years on even-numbered years. A member who fills an unex ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 April 2025 China Food Delivery Thoughts on JD's entrance: Evaluating impact on market share and financials for Meituan and JD Meituan/JD shares have underperformed the benchmark KWEB in the past month (-19%/-18% vs. -15%) due mostly to investor concerns about JD's aggressive entrance to China's food delivery market and a potential reaction from Meituan, in our view. We expect insignificant change to the current market structure from JD's entrance, where Meituan/Ele.me hold a ...

April 21, 2025 10:34 PM GMT Wistron Corporation | Asia Pacific Hopper GPU baseboards may face downside Last week, Nvidia filed an 8k to disclose that the US government has enacted new licensing requirements for shipments of the H20 product "and any other circuits achieving the H20's memory bandwidth, interconnect bandwidth, or combination thereof" pertaining to China or companies headquartered in China along with any D:5 countries. The U.S. government also informed Nvidia that the license requirement will b ...

April 21, 2025 12:31 AM GMT Netflix Inc | North America Less Is More? Remain OW, Top Pick | What's Changed | | --- | Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) From To Price Target $1,150.00 $1,200.00 Reaction to earnings Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS The first quarter without reporting net adds forces us, to some extent, to see the bigger picture in its results. Netflix, as measured in quarters, is a pr ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co Ltd. is Overweight [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that China's Aerial Working Platform (AWP) sales have shown a narrowing decline, with a 10% year-over-year decrease in March, totaling 18.2k units, compared to a 20% decline in the first three months of 2025. Domestic sales fell by 22% year-over-year to 8.8k units, while exports increased by 6% year-over-year to 9.4k units [1]. - Dingli has suspended shipments to the US due to tariffs but anticipates growth in non-US markets [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March, AWP sales in China decreased by 10% year-over-year to 18.2k units, with domestic sales down 22% to 8.8k units and exports up 6% to 9.4k units [1]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co Ltd. is a leading supplier of aerial working platforms in China, making the AWP sales volume a significant indicator for its share price [4]. Financial Metrics - The price target for Dingli is set at Rmb70.00, indicating a potential upside of 77% from the closing price of Rmb39.48 on April 18, 2025 [6]. - The company has a market capitalization of Rmb19,991 million and an enterprise value of Rmb15,647 million [6]. - Projected revenues for the fiscal years ending in December are Rmb6,312 million for 2023, Rmb8,450 million for 2024, Rmb10,020 million for 2025, and Rmb11,487 million for 2026 [6]. Valuation - The report applies a P/B multiple of 2.8x to the 2025 estimated book value per share, which aligns with its average P/B over the past three years, reflecting similar ROE levels and earnings growth [8].

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist April 21, 2025 04:01 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Growth Cut Despite Stimulus amid Tariff Shock Related reports: Growth Cut Despite Stimulus amid Tariff Shock (15 April 2025) Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Zhipeng Cai Economist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M China's Growth to Slow to 4.2% in 2025 a ...

April 21, 2025 04:33 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global M Update Signals, Flows & Key Data A weekly summary of key cross-asset monitors, data, moves, and models tracking sentiment, fund flows, and positioning. Key highlights from last week: Exhibit 1: Morgan Stanley forecasts | | As of Apr | Q4 2025 Forecast | Q4 2025 Return Forecast Volatility | | Base Case | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 18, 2025 | Base | Base | | Return/Risk | | Equities | | | Total Returns | | | | S&P 500 | 5,283 | 6,500 ...

Heading into 1Q earnings season, we believe the market continues to discount the anticipated/inevitable global demand slowdown driven by the U.S. tariffs/trade- related dynamics and remain selective on stocks (see our note we published last week on tariffs/trade here). We expect 1Q earnings season to kick off the negative earnings revision cycle with overall forward 12-month EPS estimates to be potentially cut by ~15-25% over the next two-three earning seasons, which we believe should help the semi stock bo ...

April 17, 2025 02:04 PM GMT Fuyao Glass Industry Group | Asia Pacific Solid 1Q Boosted by FX Tailwinds; All Eyes on US/China Demand Post-tariff Reaction to earnings Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Fuyao's 1Q25 earnings rose 46% YoY and 1% QoQ to Rmb20.3bn, above market expectations, thanks to higher finance income of Rmb350mn vs. Rmb69mn in 1Q24 amid USD ap ...