Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Monthly Databook: What's the latest on PCs? We provide some thoughts and feedback from companies, and update our April and 2Q notebook build forecasts. What are we hearing from OEMs and ODMs? Currently, not much. None of the companies (ODMs/OEMs) we spoke with have discussed forecast or demand changes as a result of the recent policy changes. ODMs told us visibility is down materially after the reciprocal tariffs were announced, wh ...

April 14, 2025 08:18 AM GMT Global Macro Strategist Fool Me Once, Shame On You. Fool Me Twice, Shame On Me Investors should prepare to be fooled many more times. Hold your convictions loosely and keep your stops tight. If a master plan exists – e.g., offset the negative economic impact of tariffs with fiscal and monetary easing – it's unlikely to work in the way the US administration envisions. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. Must reads from Global Macro Strategy Global FXEM Strategy: ...

April 14, 2025 04:00 AM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global M Update Short DXY Positions Continue to Build Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Source: DTCC, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: Using options that were traded in the past three months and expire in the coming one month. Notionals are delta-adjusted. Data as of Friday, April 11. See FX Trading Signals From Options Data and Assessing FX Positioning with Currency Options. Exhibit 2: Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Andrew M Watrous Strategist Andrew.Watrous@morganst ...

April 14, 2025 03:04 PM GMT Tenaga Nasional | Asia Pacific Powering AI: Factoring Risks | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Tenaga Nasional (TENA.KL) | From | To | | Price Target | RM20.60 | RM16.30 | Power market tightness is set to stay but the narrative driving multiples on Powering AI has seen multiple risks emerge, especial for US chip exports to South Asia. We factor this into our lower PT. Key Takeaways TNB re-rated by 35% in 2024 as power demand grew above expectations and datacenter growth ...

April 14, 2025 08:00 PM GMT Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific M Idea Cloud semis: 2018 vs. 2025 – déjà vu? We maintain our conservative view on cloud semis entering the second quarter of cloud capex deceleration. That said, we provide five signposts on when to turn positive. Key Takeaways 2025 vs. 2018 downturn… very high similarity: US cloud capex Y/Y peaked in 4Q24 – see Cloud Semis: Time to Take Some Profits (September 15, 2024). We find the narrative and share price performance in the 2025 dow ...

April 14, 2025 07:00 AM GMT Global Credit Brief M Global Idea A Pause, Not an End A quick rundown of our global credit research, including our thoughts on the 'pause', large outflows, tight spreads in Asia IG, and latest sector credit research. This isn't normal: Last week saw abnormal moves more typical of bear markets. With our estimates for global growth continuing to move lower and a view that Fed cuts are further away, it is too early to turn constructive, despite signs that the US administration may a ...

April 16, 2025 04:54 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Growth to Soften Meaningfully in Q2-Q3 Key Takeaways Strong 1Q on policy front-loading: Key drivers for 1Q growth have been (1) strong infrastructure capex on front-loaded govt bond issuance; and (2) robust sales of consumer goods in trade-in program. Manufacturing capex also edged up in March, likely reflecting revived tech animal spirit. These help offset the moderating exports on fading front-loading and Fentanyl-related tariffs. That said, defla ...

M Foundation April 16, 2025 01:01 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Reflation, Tariffs and Tech Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. Foundation M Growth to Reach 4.2% in 2025 amid Tariff Shocks Growth to soften meaningfully in Q2-Q3 Persistent deflation pressure 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 ...

April 16, 2025 01:57 PM GMT China Consumer Pulse | Asia Pacific AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey Apr-25 Our survey, conducted April 8-11, shows initial signs of secondary hit from US tariffs. Household concerns over job and salaries rose with slumping consumption appetite and cooling property market sentiment. These point to the need for more policy stimulus to mitigate tariff shocks. M Higher US tariffs have increased household concerns about jobs, income growth and investment loss: Our latest AlphaWise con ...

中国 证券研究 2025 年 4 月 13 日 中国汽车行业 25 年 1 季度业绩继续超预期……下一家会是谁？ 下一家业绩超预期的公司会是谁？昨日吉利发布 2025 年 1 季度业绩预告， （如果剔除一次性收益和会计政策变更的影响）比预期高出约 5% -10%。此 前，比亚迪近期也公布了超预期的业绩（此处），得益于单位利润在竞争和 1 个季度为淡季的背景下仍好于预期。退一步从整体来看，我们认为我们的 理据——盈利惊喜将是影响股价表现的关键因素——正在得到验证。在我们 发布于 2月 4 日的报告—— " 2025 年的两个主题：盈利惊喜和全球市场份额 增长" 中（此处），我们指出，零跑、小鹏、比亚迪以及吉利的市场一致预 期应将上调。我们在表 1 中总结了对尚未公布 2025 年 1 季度业绩的主要整 车厂商的看法。考虑到本年迄今的业绩表现、盈利增势，对比市场一致预期 以及我们目标价存在的上行空间，我们的选股顺序是比亚迪、零跑、小鹏、 理想和吉利。 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 16 页。 jpmsc.portal.jpmorgan.com 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与 ...