Asia Pacific Equity Research 13 April 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Auto Parts >70% tariffs: what now? Cut 2025E EPS by 10-30% We have revised our earnings estimates for China auto parts, considering the potential direct and indi ...

April 16, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Software | North America Takeaways from our Silicon Valley Bus Tour On our SV Bus tour, the vast majority of companies spoke to seeing no impact from the uncertain macro yet. Key themes included the growing use of AI internally to boost efficiency, while customer facing AI solutions show promising traction, but are still in the early stages of monetization. Still Waiting... Morgan Stanley Team Software spent two days this week meeting with executives from public and private softw ...

April 16, 2025 10:19 AM GMT 2% downside on HBM TAM estimates. Our US semiconductor team has revised down NVDA datacenter revenue by ~US$5.9bn from the April to October quarter, which would imply around 456K H20 at an ASP of US$13K. Each H20 uses 96GB HBM3 at ASP US$1.4/Gb. This would imply a ~US$490mn revenue impact on HBM suppliers in the upcoming quarters and 2% downside to our 2025e HBM TAM estimate. S. Korea Technology | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ H20 Restrictions Impact On Memory What's ...

M Global Insight June 6, 2024 02:18 PM GMT Global Technology Advanced Packaging – Thriving On AI Complexity An upgrade supercycle is coming to advanced packaging, fuelled by AI's insatiable demand for computing power, memory, and even new chip architectures. We think the market underestimates both the pace of innovation and the implications for growth. We see outsized winners in Japan, Korea, and the EU. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a res ...

April 13, 2025 05:00 PM GMT The Fintech Radar | Europe Assessing Recession Risks This week we recap Wise's India expansion, our analysis of large cap US payments defensiveness, latest M&A and fundraises, and more … M&A / Fundraises: #1 nettle raises £1.45m in pre-seed round: This week (8th April), London-based nettle raised £1.45m in pre-seed funding. The funding round was led by Project A with participation from top angel investors. The capital raised will be put towards further platform development and sc ...

April 16, 2025 04:09 AM GMT Microsoft | North America 3Q25 Preview – Pushing Through the Chop | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Microsoft (MSFT.O) | From | To | | Price Target | $530.00 | $472.00 | Investor sentiment remains negative as a 'wall of worry' around macro and micro demand impacts dominates the conversation and negative revisions loom on the horizon. Even post our proactive cuts to our estimates, the valuation looks attractive at 25X GAAP CY26 EPS, for a long-term GenAI winner. Key Tak ...

April 13, 2025 11:01 PM GMT Technology – Software & Services | Europe Weekly Reboot – 1Q CIO survey reveals market caution European ad agencies: 1Q25 previews: We don't see 1Q results as a catalyst for the ad agencies. We think market expectations for cautious management tone into the rest of the year is priced in. Havas N.V.: Solid start to 2025: 1Q25 organic growth represents a ~3ppts sequential acceleration vs 4Q24 (at -0.8%). It beat MS expectations for 0.8% org. growth. Our coverage was down c. 270bps ...

Global Fixed Income Bulletin Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs: Waiting (Anxiously) for Clarity MACRO INSIGHT | BROAD MARKETS FIXED INCOME TEAM | April 2025 As this is a monthly bulletin, we will reflect on the events of March but also discuss the market movements that transpired in the first few days of April, particularly following President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day." March proved to be a challenging month for fixed-income investors, as global yields increased broadly and risk assets sold off. Developed mar ...

April 15, 2025 04:49 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific 中国如何对冲关税冲击 高企的关税，预计短期难降。经济面临实质性下行压力。市 场高度关注中国的政策应对，及人民币的汇率走向。我们对 此探讨分析。 要点 关税愈演愈烈，政策如何应对：中美关税ⶍ级ⱶ大了长期贸易脱钩的风险。在宣 布对ⶕⱶ征125%的对等关税之⺵，特朗普总统表明不打算通过进一步提高关税来 推ⲁ谈⮮。但考虑⮽美国关税背⺵的战略考量在于促进⯆造业回流，中国增ⱶ自 美进也有难度，短期内局ⲡ缓和的空间有限。市场关注点转⺸中国的政策应 对。 决策层暂不会出台增量刺激：我们认为，政策框架仍然是⹛应式的，增量⯌激的 规模和时点将⬀于（1）经济表现和民生⹛馈；（2）现有政策的成效；（3） 在90天的暂缓期结束之⺵，美国是⻖会恢复对其他国家的对等关税（这将拖累中 国的绕道和全球贸易），以⹖（4）中美开⻪谈⮮并降低关税的⺎能性。鉴于 两会⮠⮠⺐了2万亿人民币的广义财政扩张，以⹖关税未来的走ⲡ依然扑朔迷 离，我们认为⬀策层二季度的重心在于ⱶ速已有政策落地，而增量政策的时间窗 或在下ⶐ年。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：sh ...

April 14, 2025 05:59 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Exports Could Slip Below 5%Y in April Key Takeaways Source: China Customs, Morgan Stanley Research Surging exports – not really a surprise… The surprising headline is in line with our view last month that export YoY growth would rebound visibly in Mar, because the soft Jan-Feb reading reflects residual Lunar New Year (LNY) seasonality and the associated drag on labor-intensive exports. Indeed, labor-intensive segments rebounded sharply in Mar on a b ...