April 14, 2025 10:08 AM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum US-China Tariffs – Impact on the Consumer and Implications for Markets April 14, 2025 Vishwanath Tirupattur – Chief Fixed Income Strategist | Strategist Arunima Sinha – Global Economist James Egan – US Housing Strategist & Co-Head of Securitized Products Research | Strategist Jenna Giannelli – Head of Retail & Consumer Credit | Credit Analyst Simeon Gutman – Hardlines, Broadlines, & Food Retail Industries Analyst | ...

April 14, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Musings | Asia Pacific Growth Cut Despite Stimulus amid Tariff Shock We lower our 2025 GDP growth forecast 30bps, to 4.2%, with quarterly growth to slow from 5.4% YoY in 4Q24 to 3.7% YoY in 4Q25. We expect Rmb1-1.5trn additional stimulus in 2H and US- China tariffs to unwind gradually. Key Takeaways How long would elevated US tariffs last? The prevailing prohibitive tariffs, if prolonged, would severely disrupt bilateral trade, imposing notable downward pressures on growth ...

April 13, 2025 08:29 PM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific TSF Beat on Front-loaded Public Financing Key Takeaways March credit beat a reflection of economic green shoots before major tariff hits: Credit YoY will likely rise further in Q2 on continued fiscal front-loading...In response to increased growth downside risks amid prohibitive US tariffs, Beijing will likely accelerate the issuance and deployment of the announced govt. bond quota for the year in Q2, before introducing a supplementary budget in 2H. ...

April 13, 2025 08:38 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation What Stimulus Can We Expect? Related reports: What Stimulus Can We Expect? (11 April 2025) For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 M Large Growth Drag from US Tariffs Downside risk to our 2025 GDP for ...

Global Economic Research 09 April 2025 J P M O R G A N Daily Economic Briefing Just the end of the beginning Economic and Policy Research Nora Szentivanyi (44-20) 7134-7544 nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Maia G Crook (1-212) 622-8435 maia.crook@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Bennett Parrish (1-212) 622-9003 bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735 joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA See page 10 for analyst certifica ...

North America Economic Research 09 April 2025 Liberation Day mulligan After the financial carnage of Liberation Day, today the president partially climbed Economic and Policy Research down from last week's tariff announcement. While the 10% across-the-board tariff will remain, the scheduled increase in country-specific tariffs has been paused for 90 days for those countries that haven't retaliated. Notably, though, for China, which has retaliated, tariffs will now go to 125%. In static terms, today's moves ...

| | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC James E Faucette Equity Analyst James.Faucette@morganstanley.com Antonio Jaramillo Research Associate Antonio.Jaramillo@morganstanley.com Michael N Infante Equity Analyst Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com Meryl R Thomas, CFA | Foundation +1 212 296-5771 +1 212 761-4438 +1 212 761-4631 | | --- | --- | --- | | | Research Associate Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com Shefali Tamaskar Research Associate Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0774 +1 212 761-4948 | | M April 8, 2 ...

April 10, 2025 12:56 AM GMT NVIDIA Corp. | North America What do we know so far? Concerns have receded but it's still important to understand the impact of tariffs. We (and many of our companies) are still working to fully understand the implementation of the recent tariffs. The 10% tariff is still in effect, and could still climb higher in 90 days. While semis are exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, the challenges imposed by tariffs are still daunting, as there will be taxes at the systems level that impac ...

April 8, 2025 06:01 AM GMT US Tech | North America 1Q25 CIO Survey – Changing the Directionality of Budget Growth Expectations M Bifurcated survey results suggest macro volatility weighing on CIO's near-term IT spending growth expectations, while confidence in core Secular growth drivers (AI/ML) and medium- term IT spending drivers remains intact. Importantly, AI reaffirms positioning among the 'Most Defensible' budget areas. Segmented Results Reflect Bifurcation in Near-Term Indicators; Durability in Mediu ...

April 7, 2025 09:00 PM GMT Asia Technology | Asia Pacific M Idea AI supply chain: Introducing Our Pre-2026 CoWoS Forecast How TSMC decides to allocate its CoWoS capacity in 2026 will be a key catalyst for the global AI supply chain – but that is also tied to tariffs' impact on AI capex demand – both require tracking closely. We expect TSMC to bake in some conservatism for 2026 CoWoS capacity expansion: Around mid-May, TSMC shall make an early decision about its 2026 CoWoS capacity after receiving key custom ...