证券研究报告|中国宏观 工业企业利润的内外两条线索 分 析 师: 段 超 (S0190516070004) 于长馨 (S0190525010003) 报告日期: 2025年5月29日 G 米业证券 O 投资要点 KEY POINTS · 2025年4月,工业企业利润当月同比增速维持正增长,可能主要受抢出口支撑,营收增速边际回落。 需求扰动之下, 3-4月工业企业出现重新去库迹象, 当前存货周转仍然偏慢 . · 风险提示：国内经济政策超预期变化,全球地缘政治冲突 》 细分来看，主要有两条线索：一是，中游利润走弱主要是能源化工行业拖累，这与相关商品价格走弱较为一致，二是，下游利润改善主 > 3-4月工业企业出现重新去库迹象: 3月原材料库存增速边际回落，4月产成品库存增速边际回落。 > 结构上看, 2025年3月末库存增速相比于24全年上行,主要是一季度消费品结构性补库。 6兴业证券 > 结构上看,主要是中游利润增速走弱、下游利润增速走高。 要是设备类行业和汽车拉动，可能指向抢出口的影响。 > 当前工业企业产成品库存周转天数、库销比都仍在高位。 规上工企利润&营收当月同比(2021为两年复合增速)，% -- 营收 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The implementation of public fund reforms is expected to enhance the constraint of performance benchmarks, leading to an increased allocation towards the significantly underweighted banking sector [4][9] - The new assessment mechanism for public funds emphasizes investor returns and aligns the interests of fund companies with investors, which is likely to result in a greater focus on fund performance and benchmark deviations [4][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Public Fund Reform Impact - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a plan on May 7, 2025, to promote high-quality development of public funds, which includes establishing a performance evaluation system centered on fund investment returns [4][9] - Fund managers are required to have performance indicators account for no less than 80% of their evaluation, with significant penalties for underperformance relative to benchmarks [4][9] Industry Allocation Insights - As of the end of 2024, the banking sector accounted for only 3.81% of active fund holdings, while the weight of the banking sector in the CSI 300 index was 13.67%, indicating a deviation of nearly 10 percentage points [6][12] - The new public fund assessment mechanism is expected to lead to an increase in bank holdings among active funds, thereby reducing the deviation from performance benchmarks [6][12] Individual Stock Insights - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank have significant underweight positions in active funds, with deviations of 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, suggesting that these banks may benefit from increased allocations as funds adjust their holdings [6][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the net financing scale of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds in the primary market was positive, with an increase in issuance volume month - on - month. The main issuers were comprehensive banks, integrated oil companies, and sovereign bonds. In the secondary market, the long - and short - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds fluctuated, and the pressure on US Treasury bonds increased. The overall yield of the Xingzheng Chinese - issued US - dollar bond tracking index declined, and the spread widened [4][37][39] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market of Chinese - issued US - dollar Bonds - **Overall Situation**: In March, the issuance volume increased month - on - month, and the net financing scale was positive. The main issuers were comprehensive banks, integrated oil companies, and sovereign bonds. The issuance volume in March was 207, compared with 37.79 in February 2025 and 76.85 in 2024. The net financing amount was 151.79 [4] - **Key Industry Tracking** - **Real Estate Industry**: In March, there were 7 issuances with a total amount of 61.14 [22] - **Banking and Urban Investment Financing Platforms**: In March, 10 issuances totaled 20.67, and 27 issuances totaled 46.01 [31] 3.2 Secondary Market of Chinese - issued US - dollar Bonds - **Market Overview**: In March, the long - and short - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds fluctuated, and the pressure on US Treasury bonds increased. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased from 4.08% in February to 4.03% in March, a decrease of 5bp; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased from 4.24% in February to 4.23% in March [37] - **Xingzheng Chinese - issued US - dollar Bond Tracking Index**: The overall yield declined, and the spread widened. The yield changes were 0.05, 0.41, 0.91, and the spread changes were 30.74bp, 19.19bp, 16.47bp [39][41] - **Tracking of Active Bonds and Active Issuers in the Month** - **Active Issuers in March**: There were several active Chinese - issued US - dollar bond issuers in March, but there may be deviations in statistical data [44] - **Valuation Changes of Active Bonds in March**: There were significant valuation changes in some bonds in March. For example, the valuation yield of BN3850672 changed by 815.13bp, and that of BQ3057743 changed by 288.40bp [49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic backlight display module industry, specializing in the research, production, and sales of backlight display modules, with a focus on Mini LED and LIPO technologies as future growth drivers [4][5]. - The company has received a high-tech enterprise certification, allowing it to enjoy a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for three consecutive years from 2024 to 2026 [4]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, driven by the expansion of its Mini LED and LIPO businesses [4][37]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,026 million yuan in 2023 to 2,600 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30.46% [4][37]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 46 million yuan in 2023 to 348 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 147.3% from 2024 to 2025 and 55.3% from 2025 to 2026 [4][37]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 13.1% in 2023 to 25.8% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [4][37]. Business Growth Drivers - The Mini LED market is rapidly developing, particularly in the automotive sector, where the company has established partnerships with several well-known clients, positioning itself for significant growth [4][15][22]. - The LIPO technology is becoming a key trend in high-end smartphone displays, with the company having successfully achieved mass production of this technology, enhancing its competitiveness in the OLED market [4][36][24]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the midstream of the LED industry chain, benefiting from the expanding downstream liquid crystal display module market, which is expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity in China [5][8]. - The domestic LCD panel capacity share is projected to rise from 67% in 2023 to 70% by 2025, further driving demand for backlight display modules [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in IDC's Q1 performance, with a projected revenue of 3895.89 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.56% [4][8] - The report indicates a significant increase in capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2024, estimated at 613.7 billion, which is a 17% increase [4][8] - The 5G sector is expected to grow substantially, with a projected growth rate of 17.1% for 2024 [4][8] Summary by Sections IDC Performance - IDC's Q1 revenue is projected at 3895.89 billion, with a growth of 4.56% [4][8] - The report notes a 10.49% increase in a specific segment, with revenue reaching 90.30 billion [4][8] - Another segment is expected to decline by 10.60%, with revenue at 66.99 billion [4][8] Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) - CAPEX for 2024 is projected at 613.7 billion, marking a 17% increase [4][8] - The report anticipates an 8% decrease in CAPEX for 2025, estimated at 1512 billion [4][8] 5G Sector Insights - The 5G sector is projected to grow by 17.1% in 2024, with significant investments expected [4][8] - The report indicates that 5G technology will account for 85% of the market share in the coming years [4][8] Industry Events - Several companies are scheduled for shareholder meetings and earnings releases, including Ruiming Technology and China Telecom [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the real estate sector, particularly in Hong Kong local stocks, with notable companies such as New World Development (+4.5%), Link REIT (+0.7%), and Hang Lung Group (+0.4%) showing positive trends [4][5] - The report emphasizes the support from the central government for the real estate market, including measures to lower reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting healthy development [4][43][44] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Beike, Greentown China, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Yuexiu Property, and Longfor Group, as well as property management firms like China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [4][45] Market Overview - The report notes that the cumulative sales area in 30 major cities reached 5.06 million square meters in March 2025, representing an 8.8% increase year-on-year [36] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sectors, with property management companies like Jin Ke Service (+9.3%), Country Garden Services (+1.0%), and Binjiang Services (+0.8%) performing well [12][13] Company Performance - The report details the performance of key companies, with Beike reporting a net income of 93.5 billion yuan for 2024, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, despite a 30.8% decrease in net profit [41] - The report also highlights the performance of Hong Kong local stocks, with companies like Kerry Properties and Swire Properties showing slight declines, while others like New World Development and Link REIT showed gains [6][7][8] Policy Support - The report discusses the unprecedented policy support for the real estate sector, including a combination of measures aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing public concerns regarding housing [43][44][45] - The central economic work conference reiterated the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and preventing risks, indicating that more supportive policies are expected in the future [4][44]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate beta factor has turned positive, suggesting a proactive layout in retail building materials. The new round of real estate easing policies is crucial for the performance of building materials. Long-term, leading consumer building material companies are expected to enhance operational quality and market share through channel optimization and retail category expansion, establishing a strong foundation for sustained growth in a primarily stock market [3][13] - Cement demand is expected to continue declining in 2024, with supply-demand contradictions intensifying. However, a slight recovery in cement prices is anticipated in 2025, leading to some profit recovery in the industry. Cement industry PB valuation has reached historical lows, indicating a potential bottoming signal [5][17] - High dividend yield stocks in the building materials sector are recommended for investment. The cash dividend ratio for the building materials sector in 2023 was 43.71%, with a 12-month dividend yield of 2.21% [21][26] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook and Investment Strategy - The real estate sector is showing signs of improvement, with favorable policies expected to stimulate demand for building materials. The focus should be on identifying products with price stability and high profit elasticity, as well as those with improved fundamentals [31][32] - The cement industry is expected to see a bottoming out of profits, with a potential recovery in demand driven by new real estate stimulus policies and increased infrastructure investment [27][28] Market Performance - The building materials index experienced a 1.40% increase during the reporting period, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [33] Price Changes - National cement prices decreased by 0.2% during the reporting period, with a cumulative production of 171 million tons in February 2025, a year-on-year decline of 5.70% [41][40] - The average price of float glass was 1270 RMB/ton, with a decrease of 23.47 RMB/ton during the reporting period [51] Key Company Tracking and Industry News - Recommended companies include Three Trees, Dongpeng Holdings, and Rabbit Baby in the consumer building materials sector, with a focus on those with strong retail business and market share growth [3][13][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - Government bonds have gained momentum, leading to an increase in social financing growth to 8.2%. In February 2025, social financing increased by 2.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion yuan [6][7] - The structure of social financing shows that loans to the real economy increased by 650.6 billion yuan, while non-standard financing decreased by 354.4 billion yuan. Direct financing increased by 177.8 billion yuan, with government bonds contributing significantly [2][8] - The report highlights that the banking sector is actively supporting credit issuance, with a total of 5.87 trillion yuan in new loans issued in January and February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 526 billion yuan [7] Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loans - In February 2025, social financing increased by 2.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%. The breakdown includes an increase of 650.6 billion yuan in loans to the real economy, while non-standard financing decreased by 354.4 billion yuan [6][7] - Direct financing saw an increase of 177.8 billion yuan, with corporate bonds contributing 170.2 billion yuan and equity financing adding 7.6 billion yuan [2][8] Government Bonds - Government bonds increased by 1.70 trillion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 1.10 trillion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds accelerated significantly, supporting the growth of social financing [2][8] Loan Structure - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion yuan, while retail loans decreased by 389.1 billion yuan. The report indicates that corporate loans are acting as a stabilizing force, contributing significantly to credit growth [3][15] - Retail loans have shown weakness, with a notable decline in consumer credit demand. However, policy measures are expected to gradually improve the retail lending environment [4][16] Deposits - New deposits in February amounted to 4.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.46 trillion yuan. The structure indicates a decrease in corporate deposits, while non-bank deposits increased significantly [21]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the environmental sector, indicating that the expected stock performance will exceed the benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 12 months [32]. Core Insights - The environmental sector is experiencing a significant increase in carbon market activity, with a notable rise in trading volumes and prices for carbon emission allowances [2][6]. - The report highlights the issuance of new policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in the environmental equipment manufacturing industry, with a focus on addressing supply chain weaknesses by 2027 [22][23]. - Investment recommendations include established companies with strong operational capabilities and emerging firms benefiting from new environmental demands, particularly in semiconductor waste gas treatment [25]. Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From March 10 to March 14, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 12.43 thousand tons, a 1043.50% increase compared to the previous period [2][6]. - The average closing price for carbon emission allowances was 88.54 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.57% daily increase [6]. Sector Performance - During the period from March 10 to March 14, the A-share environmental sector index rose by 2.62%, outperforming the broader market indices [17]. - The PE TTM valuation for the A-share environmental sector stands at 19 times [17]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued guidelines to enhance the environmental equipment manufacturing sector, aiming for significant improvements by 2027 [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cash flow, particularly those that can benefit from recent debt relief policies [25]. - Recommended companies include Hongcheng Environment, Hanlan Environment, and Weiming Environmental [25]. Key Company Announcements - Chongqing Water will establish a joint venture to expand municipal drainage operations in Chongqing, with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [23].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has initiated a comprehensive assessment of market value management for listed companies, encouraging enterprises to enhance returns to investors through various means such as cash dividends and share buybacks [3][5] - The acceleration of capital operations in the electric power sector among state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is expected to strengthen their core competitiveness, driven by policies supporting mergers and acquisitions [3][5] - The upcoming annual report season is anticipated to catalyze the revaluation of electric power assets, with a focus on the deepening of market value management practices [3][5] Summary by Sections Market Value Management - The SASAC has emphasized the importance of market value management, integrating it into the performance evaluation of central enterprise leaders, which is expected to enhance the market performance of controlled listed companies [3][5] - Various SOEs in the public utility sector are actively implementing market value management measures, including increased dividends and share buybacks, to stabilize investor confidence [3][5] Capital Operations - The electric power sector is witnessing a notable acceleration in capital operations, with SOEs actively restructuring and integrating quality assets to enhance their market presence [3][5] - Recent policies from the SASAC and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) are designed to support mergers and acquisitions, thereby improving the investment value of listed companies [3][5] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to pay attention to the revaluation of electric power assets in light of the deepening market value management and the upcoming annual report season, which may lead to a reassessment of undervalued assets [3][5] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is around 1x, suggesting potential investment opportunities in central and local SOEs such as China Resources Power, Huadian International, and Datang Power [3][5]