证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2025 年 04 月 14 日 电子 美国电子产品关税豁免，贸易战缓和信号？ | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 002475.SZ | 立讯精密 | 买入 | 1.9 | 2.38 | 16.94 | 13.52 | | 300782.SZ | 卓胜微 | 增持 | 0.83 | 1.59 | 102.92 | 53.72 | | 301308.SZ | 江波龙 | 增持 | 1.2 | 2.37 | 66.37 | 33.6 | | 688300.SH | 联瑞新材 | 增持 | 1.35 | 1.8 | 41.61 | 31.21 | 资料来源：长城证券产业金融研究院，注：卓胜微、江波龙、联瑞新材 2024 年 EPS为实际值。 事件：据美国海关与边境保护局公告，特朗普政府于 4 月 12 日宣布将智能手 机、电脑等 20 类电子产品排除在互惠关税 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2025 年 04 月 11 日 食品饮料 政策明确健康消费方向，推荐食品和中药四大主线 事件：4 月 9 日，商务部、国家卫生健康委等 12 部门联合印发《促进健康 消费专项行动方案》，明确了促进健康消费发展的具体行动举措。 布局大健康产业升级，重点推荐四大核心赛道。《促进健康消费专项行动方 案》围绕健康饮食、健身运动、养老服务、新型健康服务业态等领域，从供 给侧改革、消费场景扩容、服务能力提升、智能制造等方面提出重点举措。 我们推荐重点关注四大核心赛道： （1） 功能食品与精准营养 保健食品：《方案》提到要完善保健食品事前审评和事后评价机制，畅通保 健食品新功能及产品审查注册，引导零售药店拓展健康促进、营养保健等功 能。根据沙利文，2023 年中国保健食品市场规模为 3282 亿元，5 年复合增 长率高达 10.18%。随着公众健康意识的提升和人口老龄化趋势的加剧，保 健品市场规模有望持续增长。我们重点推荐消费复苏传导较快的保健品代工 企业——百合股份，公司拥有近 20 年在保健食品行业的深厚积淀与经验， 能够及时根据市场和终端需求调整产品结构，产品和剂型的创新能力较强， ...

2025 年 04 月 10 日 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 中无人机（688297.SH） 业绩短期承压，行业景气度持续复苏 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,664 | 685 | 1,508 | 1,786 | 2,081 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -3.9 | -74.3 | 120.0 | 18.5 | 16.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 303 | -54 | 112 | 134 | 159 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -18.3 | -117.8 | 307.0 | 20.5 | 18.0 | | ROE（%） | 5.2 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.45 | -0.08 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.24 | | P/E（倍） | 86.4 | -484.9 | 234.2 | 194.4 | 164.8 | | P/B（倍） | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 09 日 鸿日达（301285.SZ） 全年净利润水平承压，积极拓展 3D 打印及半导体散热片新业务 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 594 | 721 | 862 | 1,218 | 1,695 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -3.9 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 41.3 | 39.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 49 | 31 | -7 | 126 | 173 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -21.4 | -37.0 | -124.1 | 1792.6 | 37.0 | | ROE（%） | 4.9 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 11.1 | 13.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.24 | 0.15 | -0.04 | 0.61 | 0.84 | | P/E（倍） | 107.4 | 170.4 | -707.2 | 41.8 | 30.5 | | P/ ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 08 日 华峰化学（002064.SZ） 氨纶、己二酸行业或已触底，静待行业景气回升 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 26,298 | 26,931 | 27,662 | 28,450 | 29,051 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,478 | 2,220 | 2,833 | 3,251 | 3,639 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -12.9 | -10.4 | 27.6 | 14.8 | 11.9 | | ROE（%） | 9.9 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 10.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 0.73 | | P/E（倍） | 13.5 | 15.1 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 9.2 | | P/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability in 2024, with a projected revenue of 61.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, while net profit is expected to rise by 17.93% to 5.33 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company has successfully optimized cost control, leading to an overall improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 17.50%, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company benefits from a strong position in the phosphate fertilizer market, supported by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing prices amid global uncertainties [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue was 69.06 billion yuan, projected to decrease to 61.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [1]. - Net profit for 2024 is projected at 5.33 billion yuan, a 17.93% increase from 2023 [1][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 25.0% in 2023 to 24.6% in 2024 [1]. - Cash Flow and Expenses: - Operating cash flow is expected to increase by 13.93% to 10.75 billion yuan in 2024, driven by higher net profit [2]. - Financial expenses are projected to decrease by 30.52%, while management expenses are expected to rise by 12.38% [2]. - Dividend Policy: - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, amounting to 2.55 billion yuan, which is 47.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. Industry Context - The phosphate fertilizer industry is experiencing a favorable environment due to policy support and a reduction in the number of less competitive firms, leading to increased market concentration [3][8]. - The company’s phosphate production capacity is significant, with a total phosphate rock reserve of nearly 800 million tons and a production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year [9][10]. - The company’s main products, including ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizers, have shown production and sales growth, contributing positively to overall performance [8][9].

值得我们关注的是：在"修改权限"这一部分中，特朗普声明："如有任 何贸易伙伴采取重大措施纠正非互惠贸易安排，与美国在经济和国家安全 事项上达成充分一致，我可进一步修改 HTSUS，以降低或缩减本命令所征 关税的范围。如果美国国内制造能力和产出持续恶化，我可能进一步修改 HTSUS，提高本命令项下的关税"。 也就是说，美国关税政策方面，正如我们在前一期周度策略行业配置观 点中所指出的，4 月 2 日并不是靴子落地，而是混乱升级的序章。 证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*动态点评 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资策略研究 关税"黑天鹅"下，规避风险，等待情绪稳定 上周三凌晨美国宣布了新一轮关税政策，在此之前的前半周 （03/31-04/02），A 股市场相对平静，成交量下滑到日均 1.13 万亿元， 美国关税政策宣布前，市场分析认为此次力度可能较为温和，A 股和美股 都有一定反弹的迹象，盘面的风格较为模糊，创新药领跑市场，表现相对 较好，周二创新药指数（8841049.WI）日度涨幅期达到了 4.72%，随后呈 现震荡状态。然而，周三凌晨（北京时间）特朗普宣布力度大超预期的"对 等关税"政策后，周四的市场再次 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust growth in Q4 earnings, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 17.79% and a net profit increase of 74.41% [1]. - The overall gross margin improved by 3.31 percentage points to 47.97% in 2024, despite facing challenges from intense industry competition [2]. - The company is expanding its product offerings through the proposed acquisition of DeYou New Materials, which will enhance its capabilities in protective materials for consumer electronics [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 288 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.51%, while the net profit decreased by 15.02% to 82 million yuan [1][2]. - The projected revenues for the next few years are as follows: 385 million yuan in 2025, 500 million yuan in 2026, and 650 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 33.7%, 29.9%, and 30.0% [1]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 4.6% in 2025 to 9.5% in 2027 [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established factories in Vietnam, the USA, and Thailand to enhance its overseas delivery capabilities and tap into new growth markets [3]. - The focus on developing new materials, particularly in the copper foil segment, is expected to broaden the product range and support growth in the 3C consumer electronics and automotive electronics sectors [8][9].

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 04 月 07 日 投资策略研究 市场热情继续回落——定量观市 20250407 高频资金数据跟踪：整体来看，上周沪深两市成交金额一度跌破万亿，全球 不确定性导致市场热情仍在持续走弱。分项来看，公募基金方面，新成立偏 股型基金份额(MA10)上周快速回落，最后一个交易日为 18.91 亿份；成交额 方面，股票型 ETF 成交额占比在最后一个交易日快速上升，4 月 3 日股票型 ETF 成交额占全 A 成交额比重为 7.04%。游资风格投资方面，涨停板占比 (MA10)上周继续下滑，4 月 3 日涨停板占比(MA10)为 1.05%（80%分位数为 2.35%）。交易异动成交额占比(MA10)同样快速走低，4 月 3 日该指标为 2.13%。北向资金方面，上周北向资金买卖总额占比继续走高，4 月 3 日北 向资金买卖总额占比为 14.00%。两融投资方面，两融余额占 A 股流通市值 比重继续维持高位，截至 4 月 3 日为 2.41%；两融交易额占 A 股成交额比重 较前周基本持平，4 月 3 日该比重为 8.84%。 市场拥挤度及脆弱性指标：以上市超过 60 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit recovery, with a projected revenue growth of 67.3% year-on-year for 2024, reaching 940 million yuan, and a net profit growth of 195.8%, amounting to 111 million yuan [1][8]. - The company has achieved notable success in bidding, ranking 20th among over 80 companies in the national grid's centralized bidding, with a total bid amount of 420 million yuan [2]. - The company is expanding its low-altitude intelligent inspection business into various application scenarios, with a projected CAGR of approximately 28.19% from 2022 to 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is expected to generate revenues of 1.36 billion yuan in 2025, 1.75 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.07 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 28.8%, and 17.8% respectively [1][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The projected net profits are 134 million yuan in 2025, 166 million yuan in 2026, and 184 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 20.8%, 23.6%, and 10.8% respectively [1][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is expected to be 0.54 yuan in 2025, 0.67 yuan in 2026, and 0.74 yuan in 2027 [1][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for intelligent electric products, with a strong bidding performance and a growing market for smart services [2][3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in the energy storage sector is expected to support future performance, with a significant order backlog of approximately 803 million yuan outside of energy storage as of the end of 2024 [8].