行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 02 月 22 日 一体机快速风靡！Grok-3 争议与 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《Deepseek 如何部署？AI 医药景气持 续！——计算机行业周报 20250210- 20250214》 2025/02/15 《Agent、算力优化、AI 医药，三大热点 全解析！——计算机行业周报 20250203- 20250207》 2025/02/08 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 胡雪飞 A0230522120002 huxf@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗宇琦 (8621)23297818× luoyq@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 徐平平 A0230123060004 xu ...

2025 年 02 月 22 日 (300638) 具身智能机器人等深度布局，端侧 AI 预计爆发 报告原因:有信息公布需要点评 ST N (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 02 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 37.85 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 44.44/10.03 | | 市净率 | 8.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.00 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 20,153 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,379.11/10,991.37 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.60 | | 资产负债率% | 52.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 765/532 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 年内股价与大盛对比走势： 广和通 the states of the states of the states of the states of the states of the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [1]. Core Insights - The company has launched a new product, "Wei Yimei® 164.88° ColNet collagen net," which targets multiple layers of skin for anti-aging treatments, showcasing its competitive advantage in the high-difficulty eye area [7]. - The product lineup of Wei Yimei® covers a range of anti-aging needs, from basic to advanced levels, enhancing the company's market position [7]. - The company is upgrading its operational strategy to strengthen its market position and enhance customer retention through refined operations and strategic partnerships [7]. - The financial outlook is strong, with projected revenue growth from 780 million in 2023 to 3,195 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34.3% [5][9]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 300 million in 2023 to 1,326 million by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,571 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 101.4% [5]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 725 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 141.7% [5]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of around 90%, indicating strong profitability [5]. - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain high, with projections of 48.7% in 2024 and gradually decreasing to 40.2% by 2026 [5]. Product and Market Strategy - The new ColNet collagen net product is positioned for various medical applications, including cardiovascular repair and tissue regeneration, indicating potential for expansion into new markets [7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence in private care, scalp care, and functional skincare, with ongoing product development and market promotion [7]. - The operational strategy includes leveraging shared resources and innovative empowerment to enhance both B2B and B2C interactions, thereby increasing market penetration [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, with continued growth in the electronic bulk on-site gas business despite helium price fluctuations [9] - The company signed a long-term helium procurement agreement with Qatar Energy, enhancing its supply chain [9] - The electronic bulk on-site gas projects are expected to support revenue growth, with new projects in the semiconductor and panel sectors anticipated to drive further expansion [9] - The establishment of a self-controlled equipment manufacturing base aims to strengthen the company's competitive advantage in the on-site gas sector [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,835 million in 2023 to 3,266 million by 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 24.9% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 320 million in 2023 to 514 million in 2026, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.29 in 2023 to 0.39 in 2026 [8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 35.1% in 2023 to 32.2% in 2026, indicating operational efficiency [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy implemented by the government is expected to significantly stimulate the market, with a total of approximately 300 billion yuan allocated to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement [3]. - Retail data for January 2025 shows strong performance in kitchen appliances, with notable increases in sales volume and revenue for products like range hoods and gas stoves, particularly after the Spring Festival [3]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the kitchen appliance sector, driven by the expanded subsidy policy that now includes additional product categories such as microwaves and dishwashers [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In January 2025, the retail sales of range hoods reached 3.59 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year, while gas stoves generated 2.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.3% increase [3]. - Online sales for range hoods saw a 14.2% increase in volume, while gas stoves experienced a 12.3% rise, indicating robust online market performance [3]. Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has expanded to include eight categories of appliances, which is expected to attract consumers and drive sales [3]. - The report anticipates that the overall sales in the industry will benefit from a low base effect in the first eight months of 2025, particularly in the kitchen appliance segment [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong positions in traditional categories, such as Vatti Corporation, Robam Appliances, and Vanward Electric, which are expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company plans to jointly increase capital in Gansu Juhua to acquire a 70% controlling stake and implement a high-performance fluorine-chlorine new materials integrated project [6] - The total investment for the project is estimated at 196.25 billion, with 71% of the funding coming from bank loans, indicating confidence in the refrigerant business [6] - The project aims to produce various fluorinated products, including 35,000 tons of R1234yf and 30,000 tons of PTFE annually, with an expected average annual sales revenue of 8.211 billion and a net profit of 1.068 billion [6] - The company is strategically expanding in Gansu to leverage lower energy costs and abundant resources, positioning itself for future growth in the fluoropolymer market [6] - The report forecasts significant growth in net profit for 2024-2026, with estimates of 1.95 billion, 4.16 billion, and 5.44 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.72, 1.54, and 2.01 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20.655 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, followed by a recovery in 2024 with an estimated revenue of 21.237 billion [2] - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 944 million, reflecting a significant decline of 60.4%, but is projected to rebound to 1.258 billion in 2024, representing a growth of 68.4% [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 31.0% by 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [4][7]. Core Insights - January saw a significant increase in air passenger transport volume, with approximately 64.63 million passengers, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.8% compared to 2024 and 21.0% compared to 2019 [4]. - Domestic capacity increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while domestic passenger traffic grew by 9.4% compared to 2024 and 23.2% compared to 2019 [4]. - International flights exceeded 59,000, recovering to 92.4% of the levels seen in 2019, with Southeast Asia and East Asia being the most popular regions, accounting for 77.4% of international departures [4]. - The average daily aircraft utilization rate for civil aviation was 8.5 hours, reflecting a 12% month-on-month increase [4]. - The report highlights that all major airlines experienced double-digit year-on-year growth in capacity and passenger turnover for January [4]. Summary by Sections Airline Performance - Major airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines reported significant increases in capacity (ASK) and passenger turnover (RPK) in January 2025, with growth rates ranging from 10% to 20% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report provides detailed statistics for each airline, showing Air China's ASK at 31,387 million seat kilometers, a 10% increase from 2024, and a 32% increase from 2019 [5]. Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic passenger turnover growth outpaced capacity growth, with some airlines reducing their domestic capacity compared to the previous year [4]. - Specific figures indicate that Air China's domestic ASK increased by 3% year-on-year, while its RPK grew by 4% [5]. International Market Analysis - Most listed airlines have restored their capacity and traffic to levels exceeding those of 2019, with significant growth reported by airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines [4][5]. - The report notes that international ASK for China Eastern Airlines increased by 39% year-on-year, while RPK grew by 53% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the aviation sector, emphasizing the resilience of post-pandemic travel demand and the potential for improved pricing in the off-peak season of 2025 [4]. - Specific airline recommendations include Air China, Cathay Pacific, Spring Airlines, and others, based on their strong performance metrics and market positioning [4][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - In January 2025, the national railway passenger volume reached 36.866 million, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while freight volume decreased by 2.7% to 42.322 million tons due to holiday impacts [3] - The increase in passenger turnover volume by 17.6% indicates improved travel distances, which can enhance the profitability of passenger transport companies [3] - The freight volume is under pressure mainly due to the early Spring Festival holiday and weak demand for coal transportation, leading to a decline in overall freight volume [3] - The trend of "structural adjustment" in transportation is evident, with market-oriented reforms in the railway sector expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [3] - Recommended stocks include Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and Daqin Railway, with attention on Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Tielong Logistics, and China Railway Special Cargo [3] Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - In January 2025, the passenger sending volume was 36.866 million, up 12.1% year-on-year, and passenger turnover volume was 144.617 billion person-kilometers, up 17.6% year-on-year, indicating improved travel distances [3] Freight Transport - The total freight sending volume was 42.322 million tons, down 2.7% year-on-year, with total freight turnover at 288.472 billion ton-kilometers, down 7.7% year-on-year, primarily affected by the Spring Festival holiday and coal transport demand [3] Market Outlook - The railway market is undergoing structural adjustments, with market-oriented reforms expected to improve operational efficiency and profitability for both passenger and freight transport companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper manufacturing sector for 2024, highlighting strong export performance and marginal improvements in domestic sales [1]. Core Insights - Export growth is expected to continue in Q4 2024, benefiting from currency depreciation, with companies like Jia Yi Co., Jiangxin Home, and Yongyi Co. showing significant revenue increases [1][3]. - The light consumer goods sector is experiencing a deepening of competitive barriers, with companies like Baiya Co. and Gongniu Group maintaining market share despite external pressures [1][3]. - The two-wheeler and motorcycle segments are poised for growth due to new national standards and increased replacement demand, with recommendations for companies like Yadi Holdings and Qianjiang Motorcycle [1][3]. - The packaging industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading companies like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. expected to show high dividend value [1][3]. - The home furnishing sector is seeing demand improvements due to national subsidies, with companies like Sophia and Gujia Home benefiting from market share recovery [1][3]. - The paper industry is facing weak demand and limited cost reductions, but companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology are expected to have long-term investment value [1][3]. Summary by Segment Export Sector - Q4 2024 is projected to see continued revenue growth, with companies like Jiangxin Home and Jia Yi Co. expecting significant increases in revenue and profit margins [4][5]. - Notable revenue predictions include Jiangxin Home at 6.77 billion yuan (up 45% YoY) and Jia Yi Co. at 8.20 billion yuan (up 50% YoY) [4][5]. Light Consumer Goods - Baiya Co. is expected to achieve a revenue of 9.30 billion yuan (up 39% YoY) despite a profit decline [9]. - Gongniu Group and Chenguang Co. are also projected to show stable growth in Q4 2024 [9]. Two-Wheeler & Motorcycle - Companies like Aima Technology and Qianjiang Motorcycle are expected to see revenue growth of 30% and 10% respectively in Q4 2024 [10][12]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's profit is projected to increase by 295% YoY [10][12]. Packaging - Yutong Technology is expected to see a revenue increase of 10% in Q4 2024, with a focus on high dividend yields [11][13]. - New Giant and Zijiang Enterprises are also projected to show revenue growth [11][13]. Home Furnishing - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are expected to recover market share, with revenue predictions of 31.88 billion yuan and 49.75 billion yuan respectively [16][17]. - The overall home furnishing market is expected to see marginal improvements due to national subsidies [1][3]. Paper Industry - Sun Paper is projected to have a revenue of 98.25 billion yuan in Q4 2024, despite a profit decline [19][20]. - Companies like Huawang Technology are expected to show resilience with a profit increase [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company plans to significantly increase its dividend, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.8 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 38% and a dividend yield of 4% [8] - The company commits to a 10% annual growth in dividends per share (DPS) from 2024 to 2026, ensuring continuous returns to shareholders [8] - Improved cash flow is anticipated due to a decrease in accounts receivable and capital expenditures (Capex), with a net operating cash flow of 2.738 billion yuan in 2023 and 961 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a 138% year-on-year increase [8] - The acquisition of high-quality assets from Yuefeng is progressing well, expected to enhance profits and cash flow, with a projected profit increase of 305 million yuan post-acquisition [8] - The company forecasts net profits of 1.721 billion yuan, 1.759 billion yuan, and 1.902 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 9, and 9 [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12.541 billion yuan, with a slight decline expected in 2024 to 12.287 billion yuan, followed by a further decrease to 12.155 billion yuan in 2025 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1.430 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.721 billion yuan in 2024, and reach 1.902 billion yuan by 2026 [6] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to be 28.0% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 27.9% in 2025, and then increasing to 28.7% in 2026 [6]